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  • #1,941
  • Edited 9:10am Jun 29, 2022 7:49am | Edited 9:10am
Quoting Onra
{quote} Do you think future prices are more reliable...? I do agree about O/C... IB halts trading for about 15 min. around midnight... My broker has a gap, another solves it by widening the spread considerably... London based traders have the session break at 0.00 For me the break is at 23.00; it takes yet another hour to see the "new day"...
Footprint (not Futures' Footprint chart) is important I think
  • #1,942
  • Jun 29, 2022 10:37am Jun 29, 2022 10:37am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Ppps. Financial markets are highly supervised and controlled by governing entities. That's why market appears on the chart the way it does.
Hi BWilliam,
In addition to your excellent comments, people should keep in mind that the forex shares the same imbedding space where other markets exist. More often than not, it's the interplay among markets that creates the targets, PA, etc that we see on our forex charts. Notions like supply/demand and market intent are sourced within the imbedding space outside the forex market exchange. Your previous post about the G$ is an example, and I'd add the current situation regarding the Yen, where the BOJ's relentless intent to defend .25% on the 10 year JPN is forcing the yen towards 140. The forex is a utility that scratches the itch of intent, and as you have mentioned repeatedly, it's important to understand intent.
  • #1,943
  • Jun 29, 2022 10:37am Jun 29, 2022 10:37am
Quoting Onra
As your charts show only the Open lines..., both are important?
Hi Onra, my chart shows close lines only(to ignore the gaps). I do take note if there's a big gap.

Quoting Onra
Lots of it makes sense with my own calculations... Except when I "unleash" them on the EURUSD, things run not so smooth... Do you think you can trade the EU with your knowledge, as easily as the GY?
Besides the chart, I read fundamental news daily about the currency pairs I trade. I recommend that traders keep up to date news and don't depend on charts alone.
Know what you trade
  • #1,944
  • Jun 29, 2022 12:26pm Jun 29, 2022 12:26pm
Let's dial some numbers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1.png Size: 12 KB
  • #1,945
  • Edited Jun 30, 2022 12:51am Jun 29, 2022 7:20pm | Edited Jun 30, 2022 12:51am
Quoting Onra
Lots of it makes sense with my own calculations... Except when I "unleash" them on the EURUSD, things run not so smooth... Do you think you can trade the EU with your knowledge, as easily as the GY?
Hi Onra, if you read carefully what I wrote you will be able to "predict" how EU traded yesterday - there's no difference if the trader trades GY or EU. There's no magic tools like fibs or volume delta, or magic math like distance, or magic prediction like Elliot Wave.

Traders just have to expand and deepen their understanding by thinking factually and logically, and don't allow their understanding be given by someone else.

Why?

Because other people's understanding is magical. They don't realise it. Tell the understanding to your non-trading neighbour and they frown at you, that's how you know its magical. If traders can understand that most of the understanding that's given them is magical, then they have taken the first step to detox themselves from "misleading" magical understanding. Herd mentality means herd understanding, that's what it means. I wrote about detox last year - it helps you stay factual, see the chart clean as it is without op's understanding.

Do lots more deep, logical thinking on your own. Like if you live on the 10th floor condo, your neighbour who live on the 4th floor get a clearer view of the car park. Your other neighbour who live on the 20th floor get to see the coastline. Cheers.

Edit - I wrote a lot of commentaries last few days to explore ideas to expand understanding of the basic LL, LH, HL, HH with mol, wol, dol.
Know what you trade
  • #1,946
  • Jun 30, 2022 10:20am Jun 30, 2022 10:20am
Quoting Ihlas
Let's dial some numbers. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1.png Size: 10 KB
  • #1,947
  • Edited 4:25pm Jun 30, 2022 12:58pm | Edited 4:25pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Onra, if you read carefully what I wrote you will be able to "predict" how EU traded yesterday - there's no difference if the trader trades GY or EU. There's no magic tools like fibs or volume delta, or magic math like distance, or magic prediction like Elliot Wave. Traders just have to expand and deepen their understanding by thinking factually and logically, and don't allow their understanding be given by someone else. Why? Because other people's understanding is magical. They don't realise it. Tell the understanding to your non-trading...
I agree that market structure is the key, the market has not got other way if it wants to go up to make HH and if low LL but many people use it and are still not able to make money. For example how you define market structure, for example you use a simple zig zag to make it as objective as possible, the market structure will depend on the settings you use. And we are talking only about defining market structure, you still need to define your entry, for example break retest or order block or breakout, the exit is set since you can use the targets

Kind regards
  • #1,948
  • Jun 30, 2022 7:18pm Jun 30, 2022 7:18pm
Some great posts this past month cheers to all
And when we wish to trade, a new trader may also have settled on a personal preference style or styles

ie
Position trading
holding directional (fundamental ?) trades open from weeks to maybe months

Swing Trading
from certain high’s to low’s maybe by the week

Scalp Trading
intraday trading, flat at the end of day (ie ALL trades now closed)


Once we have a ‘style’ that suits us best, or a combination of a few styles - OR all styles,
then we will usually have to trade based on sessions or times of the day that are available to us (ie where we live)

We can then start to narrow down (OR expand outwards) how we might trade with our FULL comprehension of the market behaviour
(some call it the Mechanics of the Market).


While experienced traders can usually explain all trade & condition situations, I have found it best to merely explain my own situations.
(and which is why I always say there is no ONE way to trade the markets, or that one way is the BEST).

Here is a chart I whipped up this morning that includes the “timings” of interest to me ,
being only an “Asia till 2 hours past London open” trader.
Each trader could then assess or draw up their own time charts to suit their own trading time availability.

Mine includes the Asia block I trade, and the
Day Open (I also include the Yesterday Close also for reference)
Asia news release (usual time, not always though)
Franky open
London open
(Lead up to NY - ie price resetting period ?)
New York open
Franky close
London close (currency fixing time)
The post NY to the
NY close
(The final hour of no-mans land lol and widening xspreads ?)


As best a Trader can, we should / could always
Know the Market Mechanics
Know our own preferred trade style OR styles
Know our Trading time availability

Good fortunes to all, trade well & trade safe

I would also like, again, to thank Andy for providing this great thread dedicated to open & safe discussion between traders, with no agenda, no ‘my way to trade is the best way’ theme and plenty of genuine folks posting & wishing to give their personal overviews of the markets we trade in. Cheers Andy.


Major Market Centre open & close times - set it to your own time zone
http://forex.timezoneconverter.com/i...land&refresh=5

Plus an article in case any trader wishes to look further into the London Fixing Time - WM/Reuters Benchmark Rates and its purpose,
though I don’t discuss the ‘issues' or potential for rigging? over the years with his time of the day - as I DO NOT trade it, I’m well asleep lol
https://www.investopedia.com/article...-be-rigged.asp


Good fortunes to all, trade well & trade safe

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM5 closes opens and fixing time.png Size: 17 KB
  • #1,949
  • Edited Jul 1, 2022 12:06am Jun 30, 2022 7:58pm | Edited Jul 1, 2022 12:06am
Quoting Frag8383
I agree that market structure is the key, the market has not got other way if it wants to go up to make HH and if low LL but many people use it and are still not able to make money. For example how you define market structure, for example you use a simple zig zag to make it as objective as possible, the market structure will depend on the settings you use. And we are talking only about defining market structure, you still need to define your entry, for example break retest or order block or breakout, the exit is set since you...
Hi Frag, let me cut to the chase. People read about market structure, there are plenty of threads on FF that discuss market structure. The problem is the understanding is not in line with the actual market. Remember this, the actual market don't trade according to our market structure definition. Our job is to find a universal definition for the real market. How do we go about doing that?

You refer to zigzag as an objective definition of market structure, and itself has settings. There are many threads that discuss zigzag. The most common criticism against zigzag is repainting, traders can't trade this tool. Yes, it can't be relied on for trading, but can it be used to visually mark HH, HL, LL, LH? There's no zigzag on the phone so? There are many problems when we go into the details.

The problem is not market structure. The problem is our understanding about market structure. We know there's a fractal nature to market structure. There are many threads that discuss this fractal nature. The understanding is incomplete.

Proper market structure understanding ties in directly with the question which target. Without accurate, complete and universal market structure knowledge(HH, HL, LH, LL) it becomes difficult to answer this question - which target? We all know identifying wrong targets result in drawdown or worse the infamous "grind".

Let's put it in the correct order. Wrong identification of George's target result in drawdown and "grind". Why wrong identification of target? Incorrect and incomplete understanding of market structure. That's the culprit. Why incorrect and incomplete understanding? Our understanding is given to us which is inaccurate and incomplete - we know that. Have we done any research to find out more about the instances when our inherited understanding of market structure fail? I leave you to answer this question.

We all know the problem. What work have we done to address these well known problems?

Position traders see market structure in large format. Swing traders see market structure in medium format. Scalpers see market structure in small format. All these market structures tie in as one universal fractal market structure. The actual market does not know about position traders, or swing traders or scalpers. This means our strategy is incomplete if we don't take account this universal nature of the market.

All we have is LL, LH, HH, HL and the Open lines to work with. We mark George's target with the mindset of a position trader. We mark the targets with the mindset of a swing trader. We mark the targets with the mindset of a scalper. When we superimpose all these markings we get a more complete markings of George's target on our chart.

Here's the question to ask - when we get into drawdown or "grind" with our scalp trade, how does it look to the swing trader? When we get into drawdown or "grind" with our swing trade, how does it look to the position trader? When we get into a drawdown or "grind" with our position trade, how does it look to the long term investor?

Long post. Many things to think about. Cheers
Know what you trade
  • #1,950
  • Edited 9:48pm Jun 30, 2022 8:52pm | Edited 9:48pm
Quoting Ihlas
{quote} {image}
Another great call Ihlas. Have been following your calls for a while and they have been spot on. Would be great if you could give us some golden nuggets as to how you conclude as to where the price will go since there are targets both above and below. You have also mentioned overvalue and under value of currency pairs. Is there some kind of mathematical calculation you do to conclude if a certain currecny is overvalued or undervalued at certain time or session. Any input will be highly appreciated by most here.

Happy Trading All
  • #1,951
  • Jun 30, 2022 8:55pm Jun 30, 2022 8:55pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Wrong identification of George's target result in drawdown and "grind".

Hi Jason, cheers

Mate I understand exactly what you mean, well done, but for Frag & any others, let me slightly adjust some meaning if I may as Frag never mentioned George in his post that you quoted.

Wrong identification of George's target result in drawdown and "grind". Why wrong identification of target?


Regarding targets, there will always be two (George) targets at any one time, just to start off with, one sitting above and one sitting below the CURRENT price.

BW has already perfectly suggested that there are many others, and targets well past what scalpers might only look at, and also past what swing traders might look at, and more towards what Position traders might look at (ie the BIG picture targets, which Jason & GEfx have explained very well in earlier posts).


George had ALL his own targets hardlined on his charts with some 400-500 pips above and below the current price, or more, and which he adjusted each morning by deleting “taken” targets and drawing in the new ones.

So the actual “identification” of a George Target in itself can never be wrong, once it is understood (so only just the wording).

ONLY the target direction chosen by the TRADER themselves can be wrong.


Next, so where do traders get into bother when looking at TWO targets (George's AND others) and
HOW could a Grind Disaster (yes, disaster ie margin call) come upon that trader.

Firstly, I have noticed traders over the years attempting to best utilise George’s Targets, well the Traders who get into big trouble, ie caught in a ‘grind’,
are NOT because of the target itself. As the targets imho are quite benign & pure.


The error always seems to be the chosen DIRECTION towards one of the targets
(and THEN the wish to hold onto that direction even when the market is telling you, YELLING at you lol, that your current direction is what is WRONG).


And that is where BW has nailed it.
It is the market structure that will “ULTIMATELY” determine the direction of the next AND subsequent targets.


Of course, we can then discuss the issue of the market running ‘against structure’ for a period - which I sometimes call the Fake N Flip (F’n’F) move of the market. Where structure direction IS correct, BUT price seems determined to run against structure for a certain period (which I assume is just to shake weak hands into submission/closure or to allow the market maker to reset against the aggregate of all current live trades, but another topic lol).


So the George Target itself (identification) can NEVER actually be wrong. That is its beauty imho.

Only the Trader can be wrong, by their timing of their trade, the place they actually enter, and the current market structure (minus any F’n’F lol).


The GRIND issue of course can ONLY take place when a Trader stubbornly holds onto a losing trade in the hope/wish/belief that the price direction will soon turn back in their favour. This can also be exacerbated by a trader then averaging-down with more trades in the losing direction until the fateful margin call from their broker.

These problems are NEVER, and let me be very clear on this,
NEVER the problem with the purity of a George Target (all Targets are just patiently sitting there above and below current price).

But the problem is the TRADER themselves … and their own EGO ….
in believing they know more than the market and urging the market in their minds lol to please stop running against me and just turn around.


So please follow what BW has said about everything in how a trader MUST understand the Market Structure YES,
(but ALSO the current market DYNAMIC).

Good trading all.
Pete
  • #1,952
  • Jun 30, 2022 9:10pm Jun 30, 2022 9:10pm
Looking at GBY/JPY today. At OZ and Tokyo open it was seen that price was not ready to go above the daily open. The main target was the previous day low and RN. Not always as clear as this. Some decent profits could have been made. Target was clear and reached without any issue.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY-M15.png Size: 26 KB
  • #1,953
  • Jun 30, 2022 9:19pm Jun 30, 2022 9:19pm
Quoting whitesta
Looking at GBY/JPY today. At OZ and Tokyo open it was seen that price was not ready to go above the daily open. The main target was the previous day low and RN. Not always as clear as this. Some decent profits could have been made. Target was clear and reached without any issue. {image}

Nice work again W,

If we add to that this morning, after Tokyo news, that the 1hr AND 1dy were in a "sell" alignment then it was a gold trade.

(sometimes the 1hr & the 1dy are out of alignment - ie one up & one down - which can then still be traded, with care, following the current dynamic to a 'next' target but also being prepared for retracements, pullbacks into range later).

It's the 1st day of the new month, so anything could happen today, trade with care all, and watch for the fun maybe in London & New York lol.
  • #1,954
  • Jun 30, 2022 9:29pm Jun 30, 2022 9:29pm
Quoting whitesta
Looking at GBY/JPY today. At OZ and Tokyo open it was seen that price was not ready to go above the daily open. The main target was the previous day low and RN. Not always as clear as this. Some decent profits could have been made. Target was clear and reached without any issue. {image}
Hi whitesta, some member wrote trade the "low hanging fruit". He's right.

This market is huge. Aim to be an expert in our select narrow market segment that suit our profit purpose, risk tolerance and lifestyle. That's it.

Quoting BWilliam
*** trade what you know, [trade when the target appears clear to you], trade when you are comfortable with the risk versus the probability of success. Know your risk and know your reward before your trade.
Know what you trade
  • #1,955
  • Edited 5:16am Jul 1, 2022 3:15am | Edited 5:16am
What makes this puzzle so hard to crack is the search for (exact) reference points...

The C's are obvious; the O's leave room for debate...
but what about the H's and L's....?

Which line to draw near a low point in a swing?

Is it the exact low,
or... is it slighty higher; assuming a (fake) break; without followthrough
or... the first retest
or... the space between the low and the retest?
or... an important footprint/volumeprofile (EDIT)
  • #1,956
  • Jul 1, 2022 4:29am Jul 1, 2022 4:29am
Quoting Onra
What makes this puzzle so hard to crack is the search for (exact) reference points...

The C's are obvious; the O's leave room for debate... but what about the H's and L's....? Which line to draw near a low point in a swing? Is it the exact low, or... is it slighty higher; assuming a (fake) break; without followthrough or... the first retest or... the space between the low and the retest?


An interesting day again in the markets, I am now finished, all closed and done for the week (on GJ lol).


Hi Onra,

The chart I upload below is just a sample of (George’s) Targets.
(George himself used all 4hr, 1hr & 15m CHARTS for his targets)


They are Swing Targets.

The chart posted below is INCOMPLETE.
I just put in a few to show the idea, you can fill in the rest yourself.

Start with a 4hr chart.

Then change your same chart timeframe to 1hr and fill in the ‘swings’ that now appear on that timeframe.
Then change the TF down to 15m and complete the chart with the new 15m swings that now appear.


Once done, and then ONLY for a much larger VIEW, change the whole chart (with ALL the targets on them) to the 1 DAY timeframe.
Just for observation at this point, not to draw new targets.


You will then observe what BW pointed out to Frag in an earlier post here
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Position traders see market structure in large format.
Swing traders see market structure in medium format.
Scalpers see market structure in small format.

All these market structures tie in as one universal fractal market structure.

The actual market does not know about position traders, or swing traders or scalpers.
This means our strategy is incomplete if we don't take account this universal nature of the market.
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
We mark George's target with the mindset of a position trader.
We mark the targets with the mindset of a swing trader.
We mark the targets with the mindset of a scalper.
When we superimpose all these markings we get a more complete markings of George's target on our chart.



And that is just the beginning.
Each will now have a chart with Targets BOTH above and below current price.

The challenge after that, for every Trader who chooses this particular path from among the thousands lol shown here on FF,
And it becomes a very PERSONAL challenge,
Is to find trade direction and integrate the targets within that view,
We might find our answer by observation, testing, deep thinking &/or by practice (maybe in demo or simulation)

Then, on top of that lol,
Some traders might trade from a reached target as if it was a form of Stop & Reverse line, but must ask ourselves,
will price flip & reverse from there ?

Some traders might trade to the targets, knowing one of the targets (either above or below) will be taken in some session either now or upcoming,
(sometimes both target directions are taken in a single session swing lol as with GJ yesterday) .... BUT which direction will price take first ?

If there was a singular answer to those questions then every trader, every quant, every institution, every hedge fund, every ….
well you get the idea …. would be millionaires.


So why isn’t EVERY trader successful in every trade setup from the same initial premise???

I had to wonder that, then, IF every trader was successful, then WHO will be the "Counter-Party" to all our successful trades for us?
How can the market function if every trader at every time of trade is successful?
(Yet another question that Forex gives us lol).

All the best to all with the chart drawings (should any wish to go down this path).

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4 sample only not all targets.png Size: 9 KB
  • #1,957
  • Jul 1, 2022 4:47am Jul 1, 2022 4:47am
Quoting whitesta
{quote} Another great call Ihlas. Have been following your calls for a while and they have been spot on. Would be great if you could give us some golden nuggets as to how you conclude as to where the price will go since there are targets both above and below. You have also mentioned overvalue and under value of currency pairs. Is there some kind of mathematical calculation you do to conclude if a certain currecny is overvalued or undervalued at certain time or session. Any input will be highly appreciated by most here. Happy Trading All
Thanks I can give one silver nugget: Break of daily H and L is important. + rejection
  • #1,958
  • Jul 1, 2022 4:51am Jul 1, 2022 4:51am
Quoting Onra
What makes this puzzle so hard to crack is the search for (exact) reference points... The C's are obvious; the O's leave room for debate... but what about the H's and L's....? Which line to draw near a low point in a swing? Is it the exact low, or... is it slighty higher; assuming a (fake) break; without followthrough or... the first retest or... the space between the low and the retest?
Hi Onra, there're many who asked this same question.

I have given the answer. Read between the lines of what I wrote. Then think deep - don't over-sophisticate, don't overcomplicate - think simple and deep, stretch your imagination of the things that's already on your chart.(I can't write a direct answer on this forum.) Cheers.
Know what you trade
  • #1,959
  • Jul 1, 2022 5:27am Jul 1, 2022 5:27am
Thanks for all the feedback guys!
I feel that you're genuinely trying to help; balancing against saying too much or too little...
  • #1,960
  • Jul 1, 2022 5:43am Jul 1, 2022 5:43am
Quoting Onra
Thanks for all the feedback guys! I feel that you're genuinely trying to help; balancing against saying too much or too little...
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