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Flying Dutchman

  • #1,741
  • Jun 11, 2022 8:07pm Jun 11, 2022 8:07pm
Quoting bluesteele
{image} Where are you trading from ? Are you caught up in the wash? Getting rinsed out ! Where does the smart money trade???... Well they dont trade in the wash. They trade from OUTSIDE the washing machine,,,not INSIDE. Trading from the outside/the extremes is the lowest risk highest reward setups there are,,,, DONT TRADE INSIDE THE MATRIX....TRADE FROM THE OUTSIDE ! This trade could have gone long but that would have been 200 pips back up to PDH previous day high. This is where you need to THINK....THINK in PROBABILITIES.... Are we inside of the...
Thanks Sir Blueees,
getting hot
am I ?

All be fun w/ u , Sir
  • #1,742
  • Jun 11, 2022 8:28pm Jun 11, 2022 8:28pm
Quoting whitesta
Targets taken after thrust candles. Some targets are Round Numbers which attracts price. Still alot to learn but good to see things without indicators. Just lines, thrust candles and market mechanism. Thanks to TimeTells, Moodybot and BWilliam. Yes it is in hindsight but targets were marked before and there was momentum (thrust candles). As TimeTells says its not going to be simple all the time but once you see it, its going to be hard not to see it. If u know what i mean. Again i am just in the learning process and visuals for now AND i am NOT...

Hi W,

Your chart is a perfect way for all to look at the market as a whole system, a system which forms what we say is the
MECHANICS of the Market.


You mention,

Targets taken after thrust candles.

In the first thrust candle in Asia it also took out three targets from the day before, DURING its first thrust move.

But which actually comes first as all this is constructed,

The Target or the Thrust Candle,
The Thrust candle or the target.
or, the Inflection.

Well, as we have previously established,
The Targets are known swings (on your 15m chart) that formed earlier as HLs on the way up,
or LHs on the way down (Andy always says the markets “make” them to “take” them).

Therefore targets are KNOWN well in advance, (though one poster did tell me a while back they were all hindsight lol )

So as Targets ARE known in advance, we might say that the Targeta are known first, yes.
though
Bu maybe we are now just back inside the old "chicken or the egg" conundrum , who knows.


If we consider that the market operates as a well oiled system (Mechanics) with a variable output (candles)
then the THREE operations (in most scenarios, not all) might work together in concert

But maybe not in the same order EACH TIME as we look at our screen/charts.

Is that also a pea & shell game? Maybe, lol, I just usd the Pea&Shell analogy to get traders thinking they are trading inside a well organised operation.

So, (usually), we will see
1. Inflection
At Inflection we can immediately start to “review” where all our

2. Targets
are lying HORIZONTALLY on our screen (ie at a set PRICE), but most importantly look for the Targets that now lie one above & one below current price. Are they at a pip move from current price that might make trading them worthwhile (discretionary). If too close, where are the ‘next’ Targets slightly further away from current price. Are ANY of those Targets near an extra confluence, like a Round Number or a previous Day Hi/Day Lo, or the Day Open etc etc etc

3. Thrust candle
Not always, but often happens, when making a Breakout from Inflection and are a high probability (but NOT 100%) to then run. And if Price runs it will be to a SOMEWHERE. And that somewhere is usually (but NOT 100%) to the next following Target.


When price reaches that first target will it then
4. Stop & Reverse
(I prefer that term rather than S&D or S&R as Stp & Rev is purely visual and we don’t need to assess its WHY).

The answer to whether price will Stp&Rev OR Continue is ……… who knows lol.

Sometimes price stops and reverses at a Target then all the Itchy Reversal Traders want to jump in hopefully at the best seat in the house (cheers, George) & get set for a nice bounce profit.

(over time I have mellowed into wait & see at that point as even if price does immediately reverse you can often - not always - get back in at a pullback for it then to resume its reversal - which requires a strong will AND patience)

However,
and what must be understood by traders is that if price does NOT Stp & Rev then price has now continued.

And if price has now continued it might even form into a grind (well, certainly can with GBPJPY lol, I have been there hahaa), but I will not be thinking grind YET as I will only be looking for where the next target lies.

IF we knew 100% what price would do next, which Target it would take, when it would form Inflection then WE and EVERY OTHER trader would also know, and it has been mentioned before there will never be a 100% certainty as the market CANNOT operate under that scenario of all traders trading in the winning direction NOW as WHO will then be the counter-party to all our brilliant trades.

Which is why, when I hear any poster say MY way is the best, or the only way then I would always ask them DO THEY EVER HAVE DRAWDOWN.

AND WHY DO THEY HAVE DRAWDOWN like everybody else (ie why did their perfect system go into DD and do they know the reason).

And while there is nothing wrong about a simple drawdown, as IT does happen lol, it is actually the AMOUNT of drawdown that must be considered (and why many Prop Firms restrict their traders to say a 5% DD for example on their account as a DD LIMIT).

Because once we understand that, no thread should claim it has a PERFECT system, as really they only have a very Workable system which through Probability of Trade Success Understanding, combined with a good Risk Management and Money Management Plan allow them to make “overall” profits. Caveat Emptor.
  • #1,743
  • Jun 11, 2022 8:42pm Jun 11, 2022 8:42pm
Quoting Onra
{quote}
Hello Pete, Going over the thread, I'm struggling with the targets. In hindsight it looks great, but what about this specific example... price breaks the D open and the first target below is very near, yet it takes out the higher one... Has this to do with experience or rules? Thanks!{image}

Hi O,

Yes, the white box you painted early in Asia is where I would be looking for Inflection to start (which it did).

Asia DID take the first target (to the day open low, and I don’t always have ALL my HLs printed on the charts, as traders can see them for themselves,
and I don’t have ever them printed on my trading charts either, I just look for them now)

and then they ran price higher from the 1st target..

But price also came back for those lower targets that you mentioned in your post, later in another session (clue).


From Inflection we WILL (must) have a breakout
(but only when the market wants, not when WE want it to unfortunately).


Why did it not go down to the next targets lower at your area, O, which was quite close, we will never know.

(I always assume it is because MANY traders have jumped in then with their sells, all thinking the same, and the market cannot operate trading in JUST one direction, for everybody winning on their perfect trades, as again who will then be the counter-party to all those successful trades).

When we see that price DID go down later in “another session” to take out the targets (you mentioned that were available in Asia).
Well, that to me is the Pea & Shell game.

And as Andy has mentioned in a great post earlier, none of what we post here is a signal service or is a “here is what will happen next on the chart” type thread.

It is to hopefully get traders to think of the bigger picture (see BWs post just recently) in that the Mechanics are very well organised and we should be firstly aware of THAT.

Kev has recently put up a terrific post today where he explains where boundaries are at present and this is the full footy field that we are currently playing in.
The boundaries are dynamic and change each day (and maybe each session).

We cannot know the minute by minute ups & downs but we know where the targets lie.
AND SO DOES THE MARKET.

That is our advantage when we employ our proper Risk management & Money management.

I can flip my trade direction as the market flips theirs, because I am aware that the market can and will flip its direction to another whenever it wishes.

Then we look at larger targets.

This thread should not ever show you where to enter each & every trade. We could suggest it, as MANY threads do. But why.

When you are trading we will not be there with you, so YOU must learn to be flexible and to trade with what the market is showing you in regards to short-term and long-term Intent. We would like traders to think about the Market, and THEN trade it.

all the best


(I am now watching the return of Joanna in a later bout on the UFC, and it should be a good card all round, back tonight)
  • #1,744
  • Edited 11:12pm Jun 11, 2022 10:35pm | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi W, Your chart is a perfect way for all to look at the market as a whole system, a system which forms what we say is the MECHANICS of the Market. You mention, Targets taken after thrust candles. In the first thrust candle in Asia it also took out three targets from the day before, DURING its first thrust move. But which actually comes first as all this is constructed, The Target or the Thrust Candle, The Thrust candle or the target. or, the Inflection. Well, as we have previously established, The Targets are known swings (on your 15m chart)...
Yes, so many nuances in trading based on SAME core concept about TARGET, MM PSYCHO and PRICE EXPANSION LIMIT
Different trader has different view when look at THAT theory because different perceptions and experience.

It can make BIG and un-ending discusions
Trading trully lonewolf road. Every trader has their own UNIQUE GRIPS for what the best for himself.

Most wanna be trader like me often underestimate what mr. G said about 'NOBODY TEACH ME ON MY SIDE" w/ 10.000 HOURS research.
And thats including me wanna that SHORTCUT UNCONCIOUSLLY

theres SPACE (unexplainable nuances) we can not type in a words
BUT

theres BIG HELP here if we DIG DEEPER while studying and trully focus what TimeTell, ModdyBot, BWilliam and BlueSteel tell with their CHARTS and pointers.

Its important and a MUST that we accept FIRST : that NO ONE CAN SERVE TWO MASTER

NO ONE CAN CHOOSE BOTH THEORY in our thought process as trader

We must CHOOSE: TARGET theory OR SUPPLY/DEMAND theory

We must CHOOSE: THE ONE ALGO OR DIFFERENT MARKET PARTICIPANT on NATURAL MARKET

We must CHOOSE: ITS ALL MM PSYCHOLOGY and INTENT OR ITS ALL FUNDAMENTAL/TEHNICAL THINGS

again,,,,, WE CAN'T HAVE BOTH and COMPROMISE
and do try to mix that like my dalgona coffee
BE PURE
ITS FIRST THINGS FIRST
only then we can get on THE SAME PAGE

nothing perfect BUT we are in EDGE circle here .... MAN
Thank you ALL
  • #1,745
  • Edited 11:08pm Jun 11, 2022 10:53pm | Edited 11:08pm
Quoting deanyakobs
Most wanna be trader like me often underestimate what mr. G said about 'NOBODY TEACH ME ON MY SIDE" w/ 10.000 HOURS research. And thats including me wanna that SHORTCUT
Shortcut trading is buy here sell here signal from indicators. The modern looking indicators are very attractive, makes the trader look savy, smart and knowledgeable. Paid indicators that's not available to the masses are 3rd best. Make money trading with commercial bot while asleep is 2nd best.

Edit - Sell indicators and bots is the best.
Know what you trade
  • #1,746
  • Edited 11:14pm Jun 11, 2022 11:00pm | Edited 11:14pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Shortcut trading is buy here sell here signal from indicators. The modern looking indicators are very attractive, makes the trader look savy, smart and knowledgeable. Paid indicators that's not available to the masses are 2nd best. Make money trading with bot while asleep is the best.
Actually, Mr. BW has his LONG ROAD (8 YEARS) and PAIN for research.
And ONLY AFTER THAT he is has his BOT and tehnical indicator
Thaaanks Mr. BW
  • #1,747
  • Edited 11:47pm Jun 11, 2022 11:19pm | Edited 11:47pm
Quoting deanyakobs
Actually, Mr. BW has his LONG ROAD (8 YEARS) and PAIN for research. And ONLY AFTER THAT he is has his BOT and tehnical indicator Thaaanks Mr. BW
I don't trade with bot. I don't trade with exotic indicators. I don't trade with paid indicators. Simple MT4 trading platform that's available to everyone, also available on our phone.

No need for over-complication, over-sophistication.

Next week trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ5.PNG Size: 18 KB
Know what you trade
  • #1,748
  • Edited 11:52pm Jun 11, 2022 11:29pm | Edited 11:52pm
for me, its ALL ABOUT ILLUSION
its ALL PSYCHOLOGICAL DECEIT
with multi time frame herd resistance mentality and herd support mentality CONDITIONING at ALL TIMES
AS FRACTAL (ABOVE and BELOW)

THEN
DYNAMICS TARGET
and
STATICS TARGET
ofc, theres short-term, mid-term and long-term TARGET
and to add the 'complexity', there also MAIN TARGET AND SUB TARGET

THE TARGET, anyway
AS HORIZONTAL LINE STACKS UP AND STACKS DOWN from where price is NOW

what MOST PROBABILITY MM will take the TARGET ABOVE AND BELOW
high probability
medium probability
low probability
(visualize how MM will make the 'most' money today)
How MM will 'likely' move price behaviour (averaging his decision what MM most likely to do and NOT to do on ABOVE and BELOW target
ITS DYNAMICS can not type in words

then
INTENT

as
PREVIOUSLY WEEKLY OPEN with
its WEEKLY HIGH AND LOW, next

PREVIOUSLY DAILY OPEN with
its DAILY HIGH AND ITS LOW, next

TODAY OPEN with
SESSION OPEN and
its SESSION HIGH and LOW

only for me.
Trading is not hobby or getting your curiousity to be satisfied
Its TEARS
Its WORK
Its BUSSINES

IF our goal is CONSISTENCY
and not FUN OR just trying mindset
  • #1,749
  • Edited Jun 12, 2022 12:21am Jun 11, 2022 11:56pm | Edited Jun 12, 2022 12:21am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I don't trade with bot. I don't trade with exotic indicators. I don't trade with paid indicators. Simple MT4 trading platform that's available to everyone, also available on our phone. No need for over-complication, over-sophistication. Next week trading. {image}
Nei
Nei

your BOT and tehnical indicator
IS your UNDERSTANDING, right
the UNSEEN

THATS IS YOUR BOT AND TEHNICAL INDICATOR

you joke me again Mr. B, and
again

Thanks for the charts
what is THE INTENT by MM ?
TARGET ABOVE or TARGET BELOW ?
TARGET 1 or TARGET 2 ?
NEXT WEEK

I DONT KNOW
just follow

cause MM has ABSOLUTE POWER, maybe

for me whats is really matter AT ALL TIME is whats the nearest HSM and HRM LINE resides ?
and what is HSM and HRM is in contruction in 'any' TF ?
i'm in between intraday and interday waiter, not trader
ofc, the text-book pattern are UP TOWN SHOOPING FOR DOWNTOWN BUSSINES and the reverse
and volatility cycle is inflection/contraction go to expansion go to inflection again the back to expansion. around and around
my way, not anyone way.
  • #1,750
  • Jun 12, 2022 12:33am Jun 12, 2022 12:33am
hi Dean
can u please explain on chart about. me too looking in same way

for me whats is really matter AT ALL TIME is whats the nearest HSM and HRM LINE resides ?
and what is HSM and HRM is in contruction in 'any' TF ?
i'm in between intraday and interday waiter, not trader
ofc, the text-book pattern are UP TOWN SHOOPING FOR DOWNTOWN BUSSINES and the reverse
and volatility cycle is inflection/contraction go to expansion go to inflection again the back to expansion. around and around
my way, not anyone way.
  • #1,751
  • Jun 12, 2022 1:46am Jun 12, 2022 1:46am
Target2 is the target
  • #1,752
  • Jun 12, 2022 2:07am Jun 12, 2022 2:07am
Quoting Ihlas
Target2 is the target
Hi Ihlas,

Would you elaborate a bit more as to why you think that Target 2 is the target. With a chart and explanation would be really helpful.

happy Trading all.
  • #1,753
  • Edited 2:26am Jun 12, 2022 2:13am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting venkatredy
hi Dean can u please explain on chart about. me too looking in same way for me whats is really matter AT ALL TIME is whats the nearest HSM and HRM LINE resides ? and what is HSM and HRM is in contruction in 'any' TF ? i'm in between intraday and interday waiter, not trader ofc, the text-book pattern are UP TOWN SHOOPING FOR DOWNTOWN BUSSINES and the reverse and volatility cycle is inflection/contraction go to expansion go to inflection again the back to expansion. around and around my way, not anyone way.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf George Summary v1.pdf   102 KB | 419 downloads


Correct assesment and Discretion is key.
George Theory requires patience. You have to go through it like a medical student studying to become a doctor.
Read BlueSteel post 775
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...-maker?page=39
  • #1,754
  • Jun 12, 2022 4:19am Jun 12, 2022 4:19am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Onra, what spectacles do I wear? Spectacles that see big targets.


Thank you! I'm replicating this in TradingView to study it.
so every TF has its targets...
I feel there's a lot of information here, which I find difficult to grasp.
I hope I'll get back with some good questions!
  • #1,755
  • Jun 12, 2022 5:23am Jun 12, 2022 5:23am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi O, Yes, the white box you painted early in Asia is where I would be looking for Inflection to start (which it did). Asia DID take the first target (to the day open low, and I don’t always have ALL my HLs printed on the charts, as traders can see them for themselves, and I don’t have ever them printed on my trading charts either, I just look for them now) and then they ran price higher from the 1st target.. But price also came back for those lower targets that you mentioned in your post, later in another session (clue). From Inflection...
Thanks;
I still feel I'm the ball in a giant pinball machine, getting bounced and beaten up between the targets...
  • #1,756
  • Jun 12, 2022 5:34am Jun 12, 2022 5:34am
Quoting Onra
{quote}
Thanks; I still feel I'm the ball in a giant pinball machine, getting bounced and beaten up between the targets...

Exactly.

imho that's precisely what the market wants you & me and every trader to feel like and to be like.

When we understand that might be the whole process of forex intra-day movements it all makes sense, yeah, and maybe explains why there are around 10,000 threads on FF alone all trying to find that ONE system (which won't exist) that always beats the game.

What can we do as a Trader.

Be the game (Bruce Lee - "be like water")

We must therefore try and, stop being the ball.

And just ride along with the flipper button.

  • #1,757
  • Jun 12, 2022 5:55am Jun 12, 2022 5:55am
Sometimes a picture tells a thousand words

(well, 10,000 of my blasted words lol )


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1 dicky betts back to where it all begins.png Size: 13 KB
  • #1,758
  • Jun 12, 2022 6:47am Jun 12, 2022 6:47am
Quoting deanyakobs
{quote} NO ONE CAN SERVE TWO MASTER NO ONE CAN CHOOSE BOTH THEORY in our thought process as trader We must CHOOSE:
MM PSYCHOLOGY and INTENT where can we see easiest reading material about this subject. pls more practical, not too much theoretical.
  • #1,759
  • Jun 12, 2022 6:55am Jun 12, 2022 6:55am
[quote=Onra;14029324
{quote}
Thanks; I still feel I'm the ball in a giant pinball machine, getting bounced and beaten up between the targets...[/quote]

Quoting TimeTells
Sometimes a picture tells a thousand words. {image}

I won't torture our analogy of forex being like a giant pinball machine lol
And I also save some charts from history so that I can compare historically later.


Andy once showed me on his wider range of charts (28 pairs if I remember) that the markets pretty much play out the same on his own personal templates.

Some folks will say the market changes, or has changed, from say a year ago yet here's four pairs I saved and it still looks like business as usual to my eyes.

Four different pairs, two different timeframes, from one year ago.


Market Mechanics And Market Behaviour.

.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4 real market stop hunt classic.png Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1 gap gone monday morning.png Size: 12 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYH1 algo or buy sell.png Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 candle to candle.png Size: 20 KB
  • #1,760
  • Jun 12, 2022 7:36am Jun 12, 2022 7:36am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} {quote} I won't torture our analogy of forex being like a giant pinball machine lol And I also save some charts from history so that I can compare historically later. Andy once showed me on his wider range of charts (28 pairs if I remember) that the markets pretty much play out the same on his own personal templates. Some folks will say the market changes, or has changed, from say a year ago yet here's four pairs I saved and it still looks like business as usual to my eyes. Four different pairs, two different timeframes, from one year ago....
Efficiency of the market Pete!
From the common pea and shell game to casinos and funfairs.
No one but no one is going to provide a market, an opportunity for others to pit their wits or gamble, perhaps throw darts for a goldfish, and not retain a house edge. It’s preprogrammed human nature to not want to lose!
Whoever or whatever controls the data that we receive, retains an edge.
For me the very first stage of understanding the markets, and how, but more importantly why they operate, is to change ones mindset.
Accept the market is a preprogrammed entity, ruthlessly efficient, designed for one purpose and one purpose only, to increase the wealth of the entity providing us with the opportunity to trade.
If one accepts that the market will look to exploit human failings, then all the trader has to do is to identify where that entity will set a trap.
An analogy was used to describe a particular way of trading, as magic... that is very close to the actual way the entity hides their traps, call it sleight of hand but this sleight of hand is visually open for all to see.
To retain their edge, to disguise their moves, to maintain ultimate efficiency, they just have to present data in a particular way.
And your charts Pete show exactly that!
The same moves, day in day out.
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