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  • #1,001
  • Mar 16, 2022 3:51am Mar 16, 2022 3:51am
Quoting venkatredy
Hi pete I consider dark blue wave as 1hf and light blue as 15 min .

Which targets should be considered . {image}


Hi V,

Cheers pal, and I should also mention lol (it is 2nd nature for me, so sometimes I forget)
that when I say the "nearest" target, you must be aware that there is always
a target both above AND below price at any point in time.

This is NOT by accident. This is very well organised so that it always occurs.

And if there was ONLY just the one direction that price would take, in any given situation then, well, we would would all be millionaires .


The last piece of the puzzle therefore is what BW referred to as Intent (directional intent).

Solve that puzzle and you will be king of the market.

Most traders will be (even if they dont acknowledge it as such)
using some form of probability assessment to determine the direction of their next trade.

  • #1,002
  • Edited 8:44am Mar 16, 2022 6:00am | Edited 8:44am
Quoting moodybot
Market Maker with Peak Formation... Great information in the commercial section, look out for Mikes work. 3 day Cycle well worth checking out, fits well with peak formation theory.... and of course targets! Cherry picked chart. {image}
Mastering peak formation pays huge dividends.
It happens on a daily basis.
You can use MAs, Murrey Math, %, ADR, to detect peak formation but the main issue is a trader can not manage his/her brain easily, how so ever experienced the trader might be.

Proprietary trading platforms do a yeoman's service in this respect. Though, they make money by charging evaluation fees for tests on demos only.
Earlier, they were promoting it surreptitiously. Now no more secrecy about the use of simulated trading. Because serious learners have found there is a lot of
value in getting motivated in learning risk management and discipline. It will be cheaper than burning their own money in using trial-and-error methods of real trading.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,003
  • Mar 16, 2022 3:53pm Mar 16, 2022 3:53pm
Another example of utilizing Market Open probabilities on the US 30 and SPX500.

I use an 18 bar box/5M candles.
Bar 1 has a 20% probability of being the H/L of the day... ( 1 day a week typically)
Bar 18 has a 90% probability of being the High only in todays formation.
So you short it with a comfortable SL...sometimes price will take out your stop and depending on PA you can most definitely re enter your short.

As ive mentioned many times in the past. I trade the 1 and 5 minute. I was short off the market open on the 1M... The previous daily low stopped price and reversed. Thus triggering a long. I use a number of entry methods off both the 1M and 5M and will trade the box from top to bottom and farther after the box finishes at 11am EST

Many futures traders will trade the ES/SPX after the market calms down and settles in a direction which is normally after the 18th bar. I prefer to trade the open and the box and front run the direction the market will go based again on some of the probabilities i have mentioned.

Hopefully these charts will help others with some ideas for your own trading using high probability setups as I have outlined, and will continue to do so as time permits.

Cheers
Blue


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPXUSDM5 Mon Mar 14 5M short trade.png Size: 50 KB
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,004
  • Mar 16, 2022 4:05pm Mar 16, 2022 4:05pm
Quoting bluesteele
Another example of utilizing Market Open probabilities on the US 30 and SPX500. I use an 18 bar box/5M candles. Bar 1 has a 20% probability of being the H/L of the day... ( 1 day a week typically) Bar 18 has a 90% probability of being the High only in todays formation. So you short it with a comfortable SL...sometimes price will take out your stop and depending on PA you can most definitely re enter your short. As ive mentioned many times in the past. I trade the 1 and 5 minute. I was short off the market open on the 1M... The previous daily low...
Yeah everyone knows that Kev, it’s in every thread, now mate let’s get to the crunch, when should I use the volume!!
  • #1,005
  • Mar 16, 2022 4:13pm Mar 16, 2022 4:13pm
Heres several snapshots of todays action SPX500 US30 1m 5m 1 hr charts.

Dont mind the lines lines are Useless.. So say the Line deniers...

Killshot trade on the SPX500 today with only 0.2 of a point drawdown..
My spread on the SPX is a fixed 0.14 (with no commission bullshit).

Large point gains today and good equity increase as traded heavy the
SPX trade at 4254.20

Daily highs Lows Opens...Weeklys and Monthlys all highly important to a daytrader.

BWilliams made an excellent example of that with the GU in a post up above somewhere.

Lines are nothing but Price and last I checked Price is what it all boils down to now isnt it?
Whether your trading buying a gas a house or what have you. Price is the bottomline ( no pun intended)

Cheers
Blue

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,006
  • Mar 16, 2022 4:59pm Mar 16, 2022 4:59pm
Time and time again the market repeats itself in patterns... One I have mentioned and is used by many is measured moves... George opened my eyes up to them. He has that down to a science. George scrolls thru a chart and just sees the MM or we can call them Waves like nothing...well i must add he also saw many other things too lol.. Eagle eye for gaps ,,liquidity imbalances, divergences you name it he sees it. A true master of the charts.

Whether a Wave or Measured move matters not to me. For me it adds context it adds confluence to trades...both as a high probability target for taking profit or as an entry as was seen today... I did not trade the SPX500 entry down from the bottom of the 18 bar box today. I traded the reversal as noted in the 5Minute chart.

Its always nice when the market takes off in your direction with basically zero DD. All trades obviously are not like that. I do use stops and will get stopped out frequently but am right back in when the setup reconfirms.

Anyways just wanted to add this Measured Move context to the 5Minute SPX500 trade.
18 bar box range :46.3 pts
Market moves outside of box:50.3 pts


Cheers
Blue


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPXUSDM5 5minute Measured Move entry Weds Mar 16 2022.png Size: 37 KB
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,007
  • Edited 7:11pm Mar 16, 2022 6:42pm | Edited 7:11pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Yeah everyone knows that Kev, it’s in every thread, now mate let’s get to the crunch, when should I use the volume!!
Volume trading: Excellent utubes -
Look for "how to read DOM with example trade" by Fat Cat and "order flow basics" by no BS day trading.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,008
  • Mar 16, 2022 7:03pm Mar 16, 2022 7:03pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} Volume trading: Excellent utubes - Look for "how to read DOM with example trade" by Fat Cat and "order flow basics" by no BS day trading.
Hi Simnz

I was taking a pop at my old mate Bluesteele when I enquired as to where the volume comes into play, however thanks for the link

Andy
  • #1,009
  • Mar 16, 2022 9:32pm Mar 16, 2022 9:32pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Hi Simnz I was taking a pop at my old mate Bluesteele when I enquired as to where the volume comes into play, however thanks for the link Andy
LOL.
RickM, it's over to you.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,010
  • Mar 16, 2022 10:39pm Mar 16, 2022 10:39pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} LOL. RickM, it's over to you.

Rick is free to post here, my preference however for the time being would be that he doesn't.
Over the last month or so there has been a change in the way Rick responds to posts.
My opinion only but from where I'm sitting, it's almost as if someone else is using his profile.
The snap responses, and particularly how he spoke to BWilliam were bang out of order and not what we would expect from him.
What has changed, who knows, but as Kevin mentioned Red Oktober, if one was to read his posts before Brexit, then after, quite clearly we were dealing with a different person. Had that person had a big loss around Brexit?
Who knows but the dude changed completely, even to the point where it appears he had changed form English speaking as 1st language to second language.
I hope I'm wrong but I'm seeing changes in Rick, hope he's ok.

Andy.
  • #1,011
  • Mar 17, 2022 7:26pm Mar 17, 2022 7:26pm
Everyday (and I mean everyday)

They put on the same show
and forget who 'they' are lol (an unneccesary distraction imo).


Step back, uncloud,
divorce from your fave indi just for one moment (you CAN come back to it later for confirmations)


The Same Show


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,012
  • Edited Mar 18, 2022 9:42am Mar 17, 2022 11:03pm | Edited Mar 18, 2022 9:42am
Quoting TimeTells
Everyday (and I mean everyday) They put on the same show and forget who 'they' are lol (an unneccesary distraction imo). Step back, uncloud, divorce from your fave indi just for one moment (you CAN come back to it later for confirmations) The Same Show . {image}
I think you are capable of setting up a trading evaluation platform even as an commercial proposition. It is honestly a good business model. No regulation is required.
Major investment is in your marketing campaign expenses. It has still a lot of opportunities.

Proprietory trading programmes is a brilliant idea floated 10 years ago in UK and USA.

At the time, the organisers used fine print to hide the fact that the evaluation will happen on a simulated or MT4 demo platform. Actually, there never were any finance providers. Main business revenue comes from collecting evaluation/education fee. However, I consider it is a very useful service because the focus in on risk and reward discipline.

Now after 10 years, I am glad to evaluate them. The business is growing for those who can attract investors to put in money because the prop trading programmers are genuinely able to spot talented traders.

Experience talented traders don't need regulatory umbrella if they are working in-house as a contractor or freelance worker for a company which does not elicit third-party funding publicly or provides any kind of financial advice.

Firms were careful enough to ensure they don't attract regulators ire. Educational/evaluation company never seeks third-party funds and makes payouts based on simulated trading results. Legally, they can do so as they are only collecting evaluation fee and not investment.

However, when they realised there are talented traders, they started roping in private equity investors to finance their separate company which employs talented traders as their in-house contract staff to trade for their own funds. A couple of companies have succeeded in last 10 years in spotting a few talented traders.

Darwinex , a broker , realised they could use this idea to attract brokerage business by floating an asset management company. Regulators expect an asset manager to assume the responsibility of risk management for third-party investors. Darwinex did that and won a regulatory license for so-called assets floated by them to use unregulated but talented traders performance records . It is a proprietory funding model except that traders are expected to use their own money and trade only on Darwinex trading platform if they want to become their assets and attract investors on 15% performance fee being paid as contractor's compensation.

I think the main business model remains attractive. Attracting those who think they are good traders but lack financial resources. or even willing to put in their own money on the line.

Trading is a brain game and needs tough discipline. Hardly 1% of enrollers pass because their expectations are too high. Their faith in themselves is misplaced as they are always analyzing trading in hindsight.

In your case, you seems to be on trading career,. With your abilities and in order to utilise your existing talents you may set up a trading challenge for yourself.
If anybody is a demo trader, it will be a good video game as such. Who knows they keep practising and finally turn out to be good traders?
You may study annual topstep market mania rules. Being launched now next week.
You may also look at dukascopy community's competition rules and their excellent app swisss forex.

FF has no takers: FF member TooSlow ( aka Tro and aka #advancedalientrading ) also runs a well-designed similar competition on his thread but elicits poor response. He is a capable programmer, has business acumen, but has lost his bearings now. He could have floated proprietary trading programmes easily.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #1,013
  • Mar 17, 2022 11:49pm Mar 17, 2022 11:49pm
Quoting simnz
{quote}
I think you are capable of setting up a trading evaluation platform even as an commercial proposition.
It is honestly a good business model. No regulation is required. Major investment is in your marketing campaign expenses. It has still a lot of opportunities.

Crikey Simnz lol

Mate, I will accept your post above regarding ‘commercial’ activity in good faith, sir.

But I can assure that I have no intention of becoming anything remotely connected to commercial in regards to forex or the cloudy forex training industry,

which imho houses a certain cesspool of some folk trying to usurp non-savvy newcomers into forex, and to adopting a particular trading method FOR a charge (even just a PDF). Not ALL commercial folk in forex fall under that banner. And in regards to FF I know some real good guys amongst them (cheers Profitfarmer).


There is, for everbody, imho, MORE than enough FREE information floating around the internet & forums for any new folk to just whet their appetite with, rather than adding another layer on top of what has “all been said before”.


In regards to my chart just above I learned all I could myself for free from other traders, and by reading & chatting with them, especially George in regards to Target Trading (not tma reversal trading). Cheers George. While BWilliam later also got me to thinking deeper about the maths. All for Free.


And the HL & LH type of price observation I included on my chart above, I reckon pre-dates even Moses lol.

(and no offence Winston, , I am NOT suggesting you are yourself of advancing age also lol, but rather that I know Winston's excellent work from his own thread where he also shows folks information for free and from his goodwill).


The Inflections I mention, as best I know, ARE mine lol.
But only as a narrative word, which I use for what I see essentially as just a period of accumulation & ranging
or what others have referred to as Time or Price Compression.

So I can offer nothing new under the sun to anybody sorry, in regards to my thoughts on Forex.

Again thank you Simnz for what I assume as a genuine thought for me, but again - no commercial activity has ANY interest to me as an older trader who is just passing his retirement years now with some fun & good mental activity in this testy environment we call trading (I come out of horse-racing speculation many years ago and I thought that was tough gig & a tough set of folks lol, but nothing compared to the currency trading crowd hahaa ).

cheers
Pete

  • #1,014
  • Mar 18, 2022 12:13am Mar 18, 2022 12:13am
Quoting simnz
{quote} I think you are capable of setting up a trading evaluation platform even as an commercial proposition. It is honestly a good business model. No regulation is required. Major investment is in your marketing campaign expenses. It has still a lot of opportunities. Proprietory trading programmes is a brilliant idea floated 10 years ago in UK and USA. At the time, the organisers used fine print to hide the fact that the evaluation will happen on a simulated or MT4 demo platform. Actually, there never were any finance providers. Main business...
Non commercial thread.
  • #1,015
  • Mar 18, 2022 12:50am Mar 18, 2022 12:50am
This is NOT a signal chart below lol, I have to wait for something to show itself first, who knows lol (50/50)


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,016
  • Mar 18, 2022 2:04am Mar 18, 2022 2:04am
Quoting bluesteele
Another example of utilizing Market Open probabilities on the US 30 and SPX500. I use an 18 bar box/5M candles. Bar 1 has a 20% probability of being the H/L of the day... ( 1 day a week typically) Bar 18 has a 90% probability of being the High only in todays formation. So you short it with a comfortable SL...sometimes price will take out your stop and depending on PA you can most definitely re enter your short. As ive mentioned many times in the past. I trade the 1 and 5 minute. I was short off the market open on the 1M... The previous daily low...
Great things come on their own time, thanks for sharing Kev
"Exchange of hands"
  • #1,017
  • Mar 18, 2022 12:08pm Mar 18, 2022 12:08pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Compare the 3 days with yesterdays pic to see the rhythm change(bear to bull). This can be known ahead of time. I made this call in Asia market. {image}
Hi BWilliam, I remembered this post today as I was commenting to a fellow trader, about the cup and handle formation on the G$ $4H chart. Traded the turn to the target at 1.3190, traded the retracement back to target, and today traded the continuation after the handle formed back to the target for the third time. Something to think about this weekend while preparing for next week. Hope you got your fair share of all that!
  • #1,018
  • Mar 18, 2022 6:12pm Mar 18, 2022 6:12pm
Quoting TimeTells
This is NOT a signal chart below lol, I have to wait for something to show itself first, who knows lol (50/50) . {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 15 KB
Observer effect
  • #1,019
  • Mar 18, 2022 7:49pm Mar 18, 2022 7:49pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {image}



Hi Ryuryu,


Forex is difficult for you to grasp I understand pal.

Even your own eyes will deceive you.

And self deception is the cruellest form of self torture
(which bundled together with certain verbal behaviour patterns will only add to your self torture, I see)


Free yourself from your blindness & self deception, Ryuryu,

You CAN open yourself to a forex reality



For example

3 days ago I was pleased to advise you of the pre-planned often 50 pip fakes (cheers George)

see chart pic attached

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post13933660



INFLECTION POINTS

will guide us to see where markets are poised for breakouts

(and then watch for any follow up potential fakes, with GBPs)

Study (and not dollar payments to people for external data) can help you understand these markets Ryan

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,020
  • Mar 18, 2022 7:53pm Mar 18, 2022 7:53pm
And last night on GJ, was the perfect example of repeated forex market BEHAVIOUR


Which you can study yourself, there is no need to pay for extra data from an external source

We can use our minds in Forex, instead of our savings to purchase information from someone else



Let’s observe the aftermath of yesterdays …. INFLECTION, Fake, Flip, and the reality of our markets

And its predictability, thankfully, of certain market BEHAVIOURS

(requires patience)

I hope I also helped you, Ryuryu

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15 breakout fake and flip.png Size: 27 KB
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