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Flying Dutchman

  • #981
  • Mar 14, 2022 10:38pm Mar 14, 2022 10:38pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi BWilliam, I've been away for a few weeks but stopped by this evening and read your post. I did not "know" at the start of trading day that those 2 moves would develop. I do not know what PA will look like 4 hours into the trading day. However, every day, I select the currency pairs that I think will move, and I predict the likely "move".
Quoting GEfx
When I read your post, what came to mind is the step that comes before "what is going to happen". First step is to narrow down the universe of pairs into a solid list of pairs that will likely move (they have room to move and are ready to move), and cut those that are movement challenged and/or have barriers to movement. Once you get to that list, then your question comes into play. And it is necessary to have some idea, as you point out, what the PA in the next 4 to 8 hours (at least) will likely look like, and have a trading plan for each possible...
Hi GEfx, a very good post that describe the trading process.

I stop short of writing how to trade the market(some traders scalp, others swing trade), I wrote mostly about the aspect of understanding the market.

Note - look closely how GU attempt to change the rhythm of the last 3 trading days.
Know what you trade
  • #982
  • Mar 14, 2022 11:20pm Mar 14, 2022 11:20pm
Quoting bluesteele
SCENARIO TRADING: Idea: Weakness going into the weekend as it pertains to US Indices S&P/Dow and what effect it has on Monday Is their anything to it ? Can we find an edge to exploit ? Are the markets truly random ? Is Andy really RedOktober ? Well lets take a look at “Weakness going into a weekend” SCENARIO : Friday trades below Thursdays highs..what can we expect of Mondays trading session? Over the course of a year 52 trading weeks comparing Thursday and Friday... 21 weeks Friday could not trade above Thursday. Alright now stay with me. Out of...
RedOktober.... man, you know how to push that button!!
  • #983
  • Mar 15, 2022 7:26am Mar 15, 2022 7:26am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} {quote} Note - look closely how GU attempt to change the rhythm of the last 3 trading days.
Hi BWilliam, I am not sure what you mean by changing the rhythm of the GU. However, it is the only pair out of 14, that made it through my selection process on the first pass, at least to this point in the morning. Hope you are well and good trading to everyone!
  • #984
  • Mar 15, 2022 2:37pm Mar 15, 2022 2:37pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The market made 2 moves, one up to day high then the next move to day low. That's how simple this market is. If you trade from Asian market you just press the buy button anytime anywhere, you get a good profit. If you trade in US time, you press the sell button after London close anytime anywhere you get a good profit. You just have to press the correct button at the correct time of the day.
I first read this reply after more than an hour of being posted. So I decided to go back to my project. The last time I touched it, some weeks back, I realized that my variables can work well with the Fib Retracement tool and so I didn't have to do my calculations manually. With the High and Low of the day in mind and what you said on that post I went back to George's Fib values (his last thread) and I played around with the values as I was doing a brief back-testing.

After satisfying myself that I can give it a try I took the EU and I projected the High of the day before the London session with the intention of entering a short position from that High and exit just near yesterday's Low or today's Asian Low (also projected at the same time as the High of the Day).

There is still more work to be done but this is amazing!!
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  • #985
  • Mar 15, 2022 9:57pm Mar 15, 2022 9:57pm
Quoting BWilliam
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13910883 I asked a question at a specific time 2 weeks ago. Here's the updated pics to that question that's self explanatory. There's ongoing discussion about drawing lines and "indicators" are useless because they use OHLC. "How about if we draw the OHLC ahead of time". Is this possible? {image} {image} {image}
The explanation how to deduce that candle was the high of the month.

The Ukraine war caused GU to revalue. Market took it below the monthly open the day before.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Know what you trade
  • #986
  • Mar 15, 2022 10:06pm Mar 15, 2022 10:06pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} The explanation how to deduce that candle was the high of the month. The Ukraine war caused GU to revalue. Market took it below the monthly open the day before. {image}

Thanks for the explanation BW.
  • #987
  • Edited 10:28pm Mar 15, 2022 10:07pm | Edited 10:28pm
Quoting BWilliam
Note - look closely how GU attempt to change the rhythm of the last 3 trading days.
Compare the 3 days with yesterdays pic to see the rhythm change(bear to bull). This can be known ahead of time. I made this call in Asia market.

The main message I want to deliver is forex market is a very regulated and supervised market.

What I read on FF forum are overcomplication and oversophistication about the market. What's missing is the understanding that's connected to the real interbank fx market. I wrote about this in my earlier replies to Ohitsyou. And GEfx wrote a very good post to describe it.

I'm not a guru. Or some expert trader. I just write my ideas, observations and opinion that I share on forum. If it's helpful good, if not it's good too.

Take care people. Best wishes to everyone.

Ps. one last thing. The open line is the reference line. Market either trade above it or below it. The most important line is the close line. Imagine how it would change your trading if you know beforehand how the big bosses have decided. Trade whichever close line that you know. This is the main message I want to share on Andy's thread.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Know what you trade
  • #988
  • Mar 15, 2022 10:13pm Mar 15, 2022 10:13pm
Would just like to say that for most people forum etiquette of PM's or private information remains just that, private.

Or one would hope so.

Even during heated debates.

This thread follows that etiquette.

Thanks all.

And yes, I crossed the line once, before the Empire blew up Alderaan.
  • #989
  • Mar 15, 2022 10:15pm Mar 15, 2022 10:15pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Compare the 3 days with yesterdays pic to see the rhythm change(bear to bull). This can be known ahead of time. I made this call in Asia market. The main message I want to deliver is forex market is a very regulated and supervised market. What I read on FF forum are overcomplication and oversophistication about the market. What's missing is the understanding that's connected to the real interbank fx market. I wrote about this in my earlier replies to Ohitsyou. And GEfx wrote a very good post to describe it. I'm not a guru. Or some expert...

BW, you're welcome on this thread anytime.
  • #990
  • Mar 15, 2022 10:20pm Mar 15, 2022 10:20pm
Quoting moodybot
BW, you're welcome on this thread anytime.
Thanks for the appreciation and support.
Know what you trade
  • #991
  • Mar 15, 2022 10:21pm Mar 15, 2022 10:21pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Compare the 3 days with yesterdays pic to see the rhythm change(bear to bull). This can be known ahead of time. I made this call in Asia market. The main message I want to deliver is forex market is a very regulated and supervised market. What I read on FF forum are overcomplication and oversophistication about the market. What's missing is the understanding that's connected to the real interbank fx market. I wrote about this in my earlier replies to Ohitsyou. And GEfx wrote a very good post to describe it. I'm not a guru. Or some expert...

3 days in a given direction... my first filter.
  • #992
  • Mar 15, 2022 11:03pm Mar 15, 2022 11:03pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I just write my ideas, observations and opinion that I share on forum. If it's helpful good, if not it's good too.
Keep it coming BWilliam.
  • #993
  • Mar 16, 2022 12:56am Mar 16, 2022 12:56am
The 2 moves seems to be in line with ICT's Market Maker Profile - Buy/Sell Model (shared here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13896208). It is interesting to see how this all fits in to the Market Structure and sessions/periods (my next research).
  • #994
  • Mar 16, 2022 1:09am Mar 16, 2022 1:09am
Quoting Pumi
The 2 moves seems to be in line with ICT's Market Maker Profile - Buy/Sell Model (shared here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13896208). It is interesting to see how this all fits in to the Market Structure and sessions/periods (my next research).
Market Maker in combination with Peak Formation High/Low can be deadly.
  • #995
  • Mar 16, 2022 1:30am Mar 16, 2022 1:30am
Quoting Pumi
The 2 moves seems to be in line with ICT's Market Maker Profile - Buy/Sell Model (shared here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post13896208).

It is interesting to see how this all fits in to the Market Structure and sessions/periods (my next research).

Quoting moodybot
{quote}
Market Maker in combination with Peak Formation High/Low can be deadly.

Hi guys (folks lol), I will sometimes find the hour before the open (Franky/London) can be most interesting as they set up their stage for the next routine to come

.
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  • #996
  • Mar 16, 2022 1:45am Mar 16, 2022 1:45am
Market Maker with Peak Formation...

Great information in the commercial section, look out for Mikes work.
3 day Cycle well worth checking out, fits well with peak formation theory.... and of course targets!

Cherry picked chart.
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  • #997
  • Mar 16, 2022 1:57am Mar 16, 2022 1:57am
Quoting moodybot
Market Maker with Peak Formation... Great information in the commercial section, look out for Mikes work. 3 day Cycle well worth checking out, fits well with peak formation theory.... and of course targets! Cherry picked chart. {image}
Another one cherry picked.

The Lines and boxes just get in the way....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY Cherry Picked..png Size: 36 KB
  • #998
  • Mar 16, 2022 2:32am Mar 16, 2022 2:32am
Hi pete
I consider dark blue wave as 1hf and light blue as 15 min .
Which targets should be considered .
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  • #999
  • Mar 16, 2022 2:35am Mar 16, 2022 2:35am
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} {quote} Hi guys (folks lol), I will sometimes find the hour before the open (Franky/London) can be most interesting as they set up their stage for the next routine to come . {image}
The triangles on your charts now makes sense.
  • #1,000
  • Mar 16, 2022 3:13am Mar 16, 2022 3:13am
Quoting venkatredy
Hi pete I consider dark blue wave as 1hf and light blue as 15 min .

Which targets should be considered . {image}

Hi V,

In reference to the light blue, dark blue, orange on your static elliott wave diagram.


The light blue lines (regardless of what timeframes) are showing imo the fractal nature of the dark blue lines.
(if you wish to assume they are 15m & 1hr that is fine)

The Targets are horizontal and in orange, okay.

So which ones to consider ?


When trading, I'm quite conservative, so for me it would be,
the very NEXT orange target from/to where price is NOW - that's the one I would consider first.


Then you must start to assess Targets in far greater detail. (George himself had nearly 50 filters in place).

You might examine how many pips price has already moved so far today (and check ADR),
also what session price currently sits in,
and is price nearing any other hi’s & lo’s of prior interest (day, week).

And then, your target choice would also depend on which currency pair is in question
(for yourself and your stocks & indices you will need to speak with someone more versed in those than myself, sorry).

I know my currency pair(s) well,
so you are best to get to know YOUR stocks and/or indices well also, and what they “do” and also can do.


If your nearest target is, say, closer than 5 pips
I myself would then ignore that target (but that’s just me)

and I would look for the next target, further away.

This is NOT the purest form of trading approach though, other traders will have their targets maybe 20-40 pips away,
and they will be very confident trading towards/away from them.

My suggestion, V, is for you to start swimming in the shallow end of the pool.

By that I mean learn how to bag a 5- 10 pip trade, consistently, first.

Close your trade at TP and then look at you’re a/c and say “I am on the Way now”.

Do this over & over with profit, so that you become "accustomed” to closing a winning trade AND near where you had EXPECTED it.

You can stretch your legs (profits) further, later on, once you understand your own markets in more detail.

All targets are viable, the market just runs them, up & down, day after day, week after week (I have watched lol ).


The target closest to you (at greater than 5pips and up to 10pips)
is the best appetiser initially imho, as you learn your own way pal.

all the best
Pete
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