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  • #741
  • Feb 12, 2022 3:41am Feb 12, 2022 3:41am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Hi Pete, since it's the weekend I thought I go into some details and charts about target traders.
We don't know if it's true but that's the narrative we trust.

Hi BW,


As always, TERRIFIC to see your chart work again.

And, for me, it’s always been that particular … “ANOMALY OF COINCIDENCE” … as you eloquently phrase it , that’s intrigued me with Forex.


I have mirror-drawn your “lines” on my chart in pink, arbitrarily as best I could.
With a few of my own inflection points behind them in light blue for my own reference.
I call mine rotational inflection and I use rotational because price often runs to and through them (if not bouncing).
Then the spikes and returns back through them again.
I see them as magnets.

Seeing your own hemispheres here delineated by “trendlines”,
(and just using that common FX word here, BW, sorry),
has me thinking about my rotational concept,
and hopefully looking (at yours) for concealed intent as advantage.

Yep I’ve come to trust intra-day calculations too.

I no longer compare or contrast what I do with the trading studies of others, such as volume I guess, as I have little experience outside my own studies.
I do see many traders on FF making great inroads with informational usage for trading FX.


I am looking forward to any further charts, BW.
The discussions you bring always give food for thought pal.


(ps back on Monday as tomorrow we’ve got UFC, and some great Aussie & NZ contingent squaring off)


here's my mirrored line comparison chart


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1 BW.png Size: 43 KB
  • #742
  • Edited 6:37am Feb 12, 2022 6:25am | Edited 6:37am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Pete, since it's the weekend I thought I go into some details and charts about target traders. Here are 3 charts, daily, H4 and h1 tf. Drew a "long term" static angular line on the daily chart that cuts through the sample space. H4 shows the last 2 months and Feb. H1 shows the last 2+weeks. Depends on which tf the trader sees it, there's Pete's limits and inflexion points. The market is fractal so "mid--term" and "short term" lines can be similarly drawn that represents a percentage sub-set of the whole, macroscopic and microscopic view...
This is getting interesting and I would really like to participate more or at least better understand your perspective. I know I often play devil's advocate -- but not this time. I understand some of what you and TT write, but I'm also clearly missing some pieces.

It sounds like you are attempting to hash out whether current market boundaries are controlled by a master algorithm / higher authority or volume data. Is that correct? If it's volume data then doesn't that mean the cost of buying / selling is driven by some flavor of supply and demand, just like any other product or service or commodity in a capitalism-based commerce system? And that would include price manipulation by larger players. But price manipulation would still require that larger players buy / sell currencies. On the other hand, it sounds like the master algorithm folks would claim there is nothing driving price except software that outputs some numbers that all the liquidity providers agree (or are coerced) to follow. Is that correct?

In other words -- the two choices are:
(1) Price is driven by market forces similar to supply and demand, and which likely includes some manipulation by larger players.
(2) Price is set by software and does not take into account any real demand (or lack of demand).

I have more comments and questions but first wanted to get clear on these basic points. At this point additional details won't help me -- I'm currently flying at 30000 feet.

Oh, yes, one last thing. Is everyone in agreement that price fluctuates within a channel or envelope and when it reaches some extreme value will trend back toward some mid-line / equilibrium / fair market value? Or is that also questionable and up for discussion?
  • #743
  • Feb 12, 2022 8:39am Feb 12, 2022 8:39am
Quoting ohitsyou
This is getting interesting and I would really like to participate more or at least better understand your perspective. I know I often play devil's advocate -- but not this time. I understand some of what you and TT write, but I'm also clearly missing some pieces. It sounds like you are attempting to hash out whether current market boundaries are controlled by a master algorithm / higher authority or volume data. Is that correct? If it's volume data then doesn't that mean the cost of buying / selling is driven by some flavor of supply and...
I don't subscribe into the idea that currency prices are solely determined by supply and demand forces. S&D may be more applicable to stocks, indices and cryptos.

Consumers buy from and sell to financial institutions who price their fx product calculated based on black box pricing model which require in-house approval, and they get the broader guiding "boundary" to work within given by some higher external "authority", presumably central banks, to serve some governance purpose. This means there are layers of authorisation protocols for the liquidity providers' dealing desk traders to do business inside certain pre-set boundaries.

Quoting ohitsyou
Oh, yes, one last thing. Is everyone in agreement that price fluctuates within a channel or envelope and when it reaches some extreme value will trend back toward some mid-line / equilibrium / fair market value? Or is that also questionable and up for discussion?
I'm not a convergent trader who trade return to mean strategy.
Know what you trade
  • #744
  • Feb 12, 2022 10:45am Feb 12, 2022 10:45am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I don't subscribe into the idea that currency prices are solely determined by supply and demand forces. S&D may be more applicable to stocks, indices and cryptos. Consumers buy from and sell to financial institutions who price their fx product calculated based on black box pricing model which require in-house approval, and they get the broader guiding "boundary" to work within given by some higher external "authority", presumably central banks, to serve some governance purpose. This means there are layers of authorisation protocols for the...
Okay -- this is great. Thanks for answering my questions. If you don't mind, can we continue...

You say that you don't subscribe to supply / demand forces for currency prices. But you then refer to "black box pricing", in-house approval, external authority, central banks and other layers of authorization. Yes -- it's not as simple as the price of meat. But embedded in each of your authorities there is some concept of S&D. I mean, if GBPJPY, which is currently priced around 156.429 were to be priced at 10x that value then it would implode. Or if it were priced at 1/10th that value it would explode. So there must be something tied to real-world commerce that prevents these authorities from pricing GJ into oblivion.

You didn't answer my more basic question, though, and that was this: Does the idea that you subscribe to require that currency actually be bought and sold for price to move? I assume the folks that subscribe to volume would say, yes, that they monitor volume because that reflects what is happening on the ground and what happens on the ground dictates price. As for the folks who subscribe to a master algo, I'm not clear what they think but it seems they would say that currency doesn't actually have to change hands for the price to move.

My next question -- what about the price of oil? Is the price of oil subject to layers of authority, volume (i.e. S/D) or a master algo?
  • #745
  • Edited 12:02pm Feb 12, 2022 11:47am | Edited 12:02pm
Quoting ohitsyou
You didn't answer my more basic question, though, and that was this: Does the idea that you subscribe to require that currency actually be bought and sold for price to move? I assume the folks that subscribe to volume would say, yes, that they monitor volume because that reflects what is happening on the ground and what happens on the ground dictates price. As for the folks who subscribe to a master algo, I'm not clear what they think but it seems they would say that currency doesn't actually have to change hands for the price to move.
A straight answer - no.

I don't think in terms of supply and demand commerce. All I care about is when price approach a "boundary" whether the intent from here is clear or not. Anything in between this range is random, the usual on the ground commerce and/or sporadic speculation.

I don't seek to explain the entire market movement. I don't even care to know why price rise or fall as in this particular fundamental red news is the cause. All I care about is whether the "authority" whoever they may be that control this market feel (un)comfortable with the current price level for whatever their reason(s) they chose to do business at higher or lower levels from here. The layers of authorisation tells us that there must exist clear intent that's communicated down the entire chain when price is revalued from one main level to another.

It's my opinion that actual supply and demand is not the determinant. Market is always on a continuous journey heading "somewhere" from here and here is a location on the map. Assume the world map, the here can be Melbourne this week on the way to Sydney in a bigger journey around APAC region. The entire journey is pre-planned and not left to s&d.

I don't trade oil market but I think it's heavily "controlled" in cartel fashion of common interest where the price of oil has to be kept above certain level to support national economies and to sustain economic objectives.
Know what you trade
  • #746
  • Feb 12, 2022 12:06pm Feb 12, 2022 12:06pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} A straight answer - no. I don't think in terms of supply and demand commerce. All I care about is when price approach a "boundary" whether the intent from here is clear or not. Anything in between this range is random, the usual on the ground commerce and/or sporadic speculation. I don't seek to explain the entire market movement. I don't even care to know why price rise or fall as in this particular fundamental red news is the cause. All I care about is whether the "authority" whoever they may be that control this market feel (un)comfortable...
Okay -- I get you don't like the term "supply and demand". That's fine -- it's just a concept. I don't want to get bogged down in terminology.

But you still haven't answered my question: Whatever explanation you subscribe to that affects market boundaries, does currency exchange hands as the price moves or does price move because someone or something somewhere ordered or coerced it to move?

And the "boundaries" you refer to -- I assume those are the upper and lower boundaries of a channel or envelope? If so, then I agree that price meanders between the upper and lower boundaries of a channel or envelope. In fact, I think the "master algo" folks would also agree. The channel or envelope I'm referring to is equivalent to the TMA lines.
  • #747
  • Feb 12, 2022 8:07pm Feb 12, 2022 8:07pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi BW, As always, TERRIFIC to see your chart work again. And, for me, it’s always been that particular … “ANOMALY OF COINCIDENCE” … as you eloquently phrase it , that’s intrigued me with Forex. I have mirror-drawn your “lines” on my chart in pink, arbitrarily as best I could. With a few of my own inflection points behind them in light blue for my own reference. I call mine rotational inflection and I use rotational because price often runs to and through them (if not bouncing). Then the spikes and returns back through them again....
Hi Pete, good piano analogy on the other thread. I prefer to write my response here.

Learning the complete 88keys is a huge ask. Beginners start with the C major scale. Then progress into something that suit their taste, perhaps Dm scale.

Plenty of successful traders are one-trick ponies, example Dm scale. There are many, like me(piano-wise), who can't or haven't learnt any scale at all.

For such people, example me, can I ever learn any scale to the required proficiency to make music? To the music teacher ofc yes if I want to. Perhaps not thank you, that's what I decide for myself. I prefer to enjoy music than to make music. Lol. There are some things that's best left to those who can. It's easy to make the call for music but it can be a difficult call for many in Forex trading.
Know what you trade
  • #748
  • Feb 12, 2022 8:30pm Feb 12, 2022 8:30pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Pete, good piano analogy on the other thread. I prefer to write my response here. Learning the complete 88keys is a huge ask. Beginners start with the C major scale. Then progress into something that suit their taste, perhaps Dm scale. Plenty of successful traders are one-trick ponies, example Dm scale. There are many, like me(piano-wise), who can't or haven't learnt any scale at all. For such people, example me, can I ever learn any scale to the required proficiency to make music? To the music teacher ofc yes if I want to. Perhaps not...
And what about me? I think I just got dumped...

Okay -- I guess it's back to the COVID thread...
  • #749
  • Feb 12, 2022 8:35pm Feb 12, 2022 8:35pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote} And what about me? I think I just got dumped... Okay -- I guess it's back to the COVID thread...
One can hibernate in the ‘Covid’ approved threads, …or expand one’s mind and participate with the best two posters on Forex Factory today…. that’s you and me!!
  • #750
  • Feb 12, 2022 8:36pm Feb 12, 2022 8:36pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
I prefer to write my response here.
cheers BW,

yes I prefer this thread also pal

I had an investment on the other thread, that required some completion is all.

I'm in between prelims now at the UFC. And will be back either later tonight or for Monday trading. To expand here (and for OIY also )


Chase the core of Forex behaviour first, is my advice to all new traders.

And only then, come down into your personality-profile timeframes & templates LATER.

all the best today folks
  • #751
  • Feb 12, 2022 8:47pm Feb 12, 2022 8:47pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote} And what about me? I think I just got dumped... Okay -- I guess it's back to the COVID thread...
Hi OIY, I have to prepare some material to respond to your question.

Quoting ohitsyou
But you still haven't answered my question: Whatever explanation you subscribe to that affects market boundaries, does currency exchange hands as the price moves or does price move because someone or something somewhere ordered or coerced it to move? And the "boundaries" you refer to -- I assume those are the upper and lower boundaries of a channel or envelope?
Here's the UCAD H4 chart. This last 2 weeks price was trading in a "range" going nowhere. The week before that marked in blue box there's a clear upward shift in the pricing of this pair.

So, to your question - "does currency exchange hands as price moves?".

I assume you refer to s&d.

Yes, s&d moves price up and down inside certain "boundary".

No, price shift from one level to another not due to s&d. But the "authority" who control this market feel it appropriate to do business at another level. (I drew the weekly open line with the yellow line)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4.PNG Size: 38 KB
Know what you trade
  • #752
  • Feb 12, 2022 8:53pm Feb 12, 2022 8:53pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi OIY, I have to prepare some material to respond to your question. {quote} Here's the UCAD H4 chart. The last 2 weeks price was trading in a "range". The week before that marked in blue box there's a clear upward shift in the pricing of this pair. So, to your question - "does currency exchange hands as price moves?". I assume you refer to s&d. Yes, s&d moves price up and down inside certain "boundary". No, price shift from one level to another not due to s&d. But the "authority" who control this market feel it appropriate to do business...
within the boundary of a higher and legal authority that govern the currency you are trading - USD will be FED and GBP - BOE.
  • #753
  • Feb 12, 2022 9:10pm Feb 12, 2022 9:10pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi OIY, I have to prepare some material to respond to your question. {quote} Here's the UCAD H4 chart. This last 2 weeks price was trading in a "range" going nowhere. The week before that marked in blue box there's a clear upward shift in the pricing of this pair. So, to your question - "does currency exchange hands as price moves?". I assume you refer to s&d. Yes, s&d moves price up and down inside certain "boundary". No, price shift from one level to another not due to s&d. But the "authority" who control this market feel it appropriate...
Hello BW -- thanks for your attention.

Okay -- so you kind of answered my question. But, again, let's forget about S/D -- it's a distraction. And let's forget about charts and authorities for a moment. My question is more fundamental. When price moves do funds exchange hands? In your post above it sounds like your answer is "it depends". Let's say you were explaining this to your grandmother and you had to keep it short and simple. Even if it is not 100%, which subscription is more important -- funds exchange hands or funds do not exchange hands?

It's such a simple question -- why the hesitation to answer it?
  • #754
  • Feb 12, 2022 9:16pm Feb 12, 2022 9:16pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote} Hello BW -- thanks for your attention. Rejection kind of sucks... Okay -- so you kind of answered my question. But, again, let's forget about S/D -- it's a distraction. And let's forget about charts for a moment. My question is more fundamental. When price moves do funds exchange hands? In your post above it sounds like your answer is "it depends". Let's say you were explaining this to your grandmother and you had to keep it short and simple. Even if it is not 100%, which subscription is more important -- funds exchange hands or funds do...
OIY, this is how I tell granny,

You see price move up from the bottom of the screen to the top, it's because some bigwig fella picked up his red phone told the banks to do that.

Quoting ohitsyou
Let's say you were explaining this to your grandmother and you had to keep it short and simple. Even if it is not 100%, which subscription is more important -- funds exchange hands or funds do not exchange hands? It's such a simple question -- why the hesitation to answer it?
The point I try to make is the size of the exchange of funds is not the main reason why price shift from one level to another. Idk if it requires a certain qualifying size of funds exchange to effect such change.
Know what you trade
  • #755
  • Feb 12, 2022 9:33pm Feb 12, 2022 9:33pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} OIY, this is how I tell granny, You see price move up from the bottom of the screen to the top, it's because some bigwig fella picked up his red phone told the banks to do that.
Excellent -- thank you!

So price moves because someone or something coerces the liquidity providers to set the price at some value -- regardless whether anyone needs to or is even interested in buying or selling that instrument. Someone, somewhere shouts a number and all the liquidity providers jump.

Not surprisingly I'll follow-up with another post. BW -- thanks for being a sport and going along with this exercise...
  • #756
  • Feb 12, 2022 9:42pm Feb 12, 2022 9:42pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote} Excellent -- thank you! So price moves because someone or something coerces the liquidity providers to set the price at some value -- regardless whether anyone needs to or is even interested in buying or selling that instrument. Someone, somewhere shouts a number and all the liquidity providers jump. Not surprisingly I'll follow-up with another post. BW -- thanks for being a sport and going along with this exercise...
I forgot -- a couple of related questions...

1. How frequently does the boss yell "jump"? With every tick, right? The arrival of ticks varies from instrument-to-instrument, right? And even from broker-to-broker and trading platform-to-platform, right?

2. And how far in advance are the "jumps" planned? I assume they are planned in advance -- like an hour in advance, a day, a month, a year? I understand this would all be managed by software, but I am curious how far in advance prices have been decided.

3. And since prices have been decided in advance, then what happens when an unexpected world event occurs -- I don't know, like maybe a pandemic? Or a Russian invasion? Are these already taken into account? Does the boss even concern himself with world events?

I'm just trying to get a handle on how prices are set and when they are set.
  • #757
  • Feb 12, 2022 10:06pm Feb 12, 2022 10:06pm
Quoting ohitsyou
{quote} I forgot -- a couple of related questions... 1. How frequently does the boss yell "jump"? With every tick, right? The arrival of ticks varies from instrument-to-instrument, right? And even from broker-to-broker and trading platform-to-platform, right?
Dealing desk are free to quote inside their session boundary. The session boss instructs this boundary subject to change.

Quoting ohitsyou
2. And how far in advance are the "jumps" planned? I assume they are planned in advance -- like an hour in advance, a day, a month, a year? I understand this would all be managed by software, but I am curious how far in advance prices have been decided.
Imo, the entire spectrum of price levels have already been decided to take care of all eventualities. Just need the authorisation to activate.

Quoting ohitsyou
3. And since prices have been decided in advance, then what happens when an unexpected world event occurs -- I don't know, like maybe a pandemic? Or a Russian invasion? Are these already taken into account? Does the boss even concern himself with world events? I'm just trying to get a handle on how prices are set and when they are set.
Depends on the defcon level that's activated, the boss issues the instruction. Meanwhile the rest of us try to predict the possible authorisation after Biden talked to Putin and the first missile launched.

This is just my opinion how it works.
Know what you trade
  • #758
  • Feb 13, 2022 12:51am Feb 13, 2022 12:51am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Dealing desk are free to quote inside their session boundary. The session boss instructs this boundary subject to change. {quote} Imo, the entire spectrum of price levels have already been decided to take care of all eventualities. Just need the authorisation to activate. {quote} Depends on the defcon level that's activated, the boss issues the instruction. Meanwhile the rest of us try to predict the possible authorisation after Biden talked to Putin and the first missile launched. This is just my opinion how it works.
You didn't answer my questions. Plus you've introduced new terms like "dealing desk", "session boss", "defcon". I'm starting much simpler and attempting to work up. You've posted your subscription a number of times. I'm for you to again post it. I'd like to take baby steps so that I can better under the basis of your subscription.

I've also noticed that you never ask a question. I've read dozens of your posts and never a question. You probably realize I'm heading in a certain direction and your responses have the effect of heading me off at the pass. Aren't you at all curious where I'm headed?

So, again, my last three questions -- and if you don't have an answer for them that is also perfectly fine to say:

1. How frequently does the boss yell "jump"? With every tick, right? The arrival of ticks varies from instrument-to-instrument, right? And even from broker-to-broker and trading platform-to-platform, right?

2. And how far in advance are the "jumps" planned? I assume they are planned in advance -- like an hour in advance, a day, a month, a year? I understand this would all be managed by software, but I am curious how far in advance prices have been decided.

3. And since prices have been decided in advance, then what happens when an unexpected world event occurs -- I don't know, like maybe a pandemic? Or a Russian invasion? Are these already taken into account? Does the boss even concern himself with world events?

Once I have answers to these then I will continue with the next point -- and the next point even includes a chart and a **free** indicator. Whoop-de-do!!
  • #759
  • Feb 13, 2022 1:11am Feb 13, 2022 1:11am
Quoting ohitsyou
So, again, my last three questions -- and if you don't have an answer for them that is also perfectly fine to say
I have answered your questions and I have worded them carefully to communicate my perception(rightly or wrongly) about how this market operate the way I think it does. Just that my answers don't fit expectation. I'm not insisting I'm correct. Just the way I perceive it to be and since you asked. There's much I want to say but prefer to avoid saying it directly because of the implications, I don't want to ruffle feathers which I already did. So this is as much as I want to dip into.

I'd say get on to your next point.
Know what you trade
  • #760
  • Feb 13, 2022 1:21am Feb 13, 2022 1:21am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} I have answered your questions and I have worded them carefully to communicate my perception(rightly or wrongly) about how this market operate the way I think it does. Just that my answers don't fit expectation. I'm not insisting I'm correct. Just the way I perceive it to be and since you asked. There's much I want to say but prefer to avoid saying it directly because of the implications, I don't want to ruffle feathers which I already did. So this is as much as I want to dip into. I'd say get on to your next point.
Fair enough. And would it have been so painful to ask: What is your next point? Instead it's a command. If you look at your keyboard there is a question mark key (?) in the lower-right corner. Perhaps your keyboard doesn't have one -- I don't know...

One thing I've learned on FF is to distinguish between the genuinely curious and the non-curious. I'm perfectly fine interacting with the non-curious, but I do learn more discussing things with the curious.
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