Battle hardened. Only saved by money management. Learning goes on. 
- #684
- Feb 9, 2022 6:11am Feb 9, 2022 6:11am
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
Oops, been kicked out from another thread.... oh well..
Where are you Gepards, can you post your sleuthing on here regards my additional username, apparently I’m ohitsyou...... so we can discuss.
Where are you Gepards, can you post your sleuthing on here regards my additional username, apparently I’m ohitsyou...... so we can discuss.
- #685
- Feb 9, 2022 6:26am Feb 9, 2022 6:26am
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
Haha
Come on Gepards, you have accused me of having two usernames, with ohitsyou......
But mate, now that you have made a fuckup don’t block me you panzy... just man up and admit you were wrong.
And as if by magic I’m now blocked on the thread....very suspicious eh Capital Trader.. another shyster.
Come on Gepards, you have accused me of having two usernames, with ohitsyou......
But mate, now that you have made a fuckup don’t block me you panzy... just man up and admit you were wrong.
And as if by magic I’m now blocked on the thread....very suspicious eh Capital Trader.. another shyster.
- #686
- Feb 9, 2022 7:13am Feb 9, 2022 7:13am
Haha Come on Gepards, you have accused me of having two usernames, with ohitsyou......
moodybot and I are different people -- though we know one another from previous battles. I first posted about a month before captalTrader started his thread and about 1.5 years after the "Price action at the core = family members' discussion project" began. Here's a link to my first post:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13859199
gepards -- how you managed to equate the two of us as the same person would be an interesting study into how the mind of an idiot works. We write completely differently. I'm a software developer and he's a master trader. But you did get us both banned, so kudos to you. Hope that Karma doesn't bite you too hard (okay, okay -- that would be a lie)...
- #687
- Feb 9, 2022 1:56pm Feb 9, 2022 1:56pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
{quote} Also -- addressed to gepards... moodybot and I are different people -- though we know one another from previous battles. I first posted about a month before captalTrader started his thread and about 1.5 years after the "Price action at the core = family members' discussion project" began. Here's a link to my first post: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13859199 gepards -- how you managed to equate the two of us as the same person would be an interesting study into how the mind of an idiot works. We write completely...
Haha
If gepards had half of one he would have worked out that we're on two different time zones, two different people, and I speak the Queens English
, however he hasn't got one and threw the teddy out when he found out he was wrong...... I said he was French 
The thread was entertaining if going nowhere. It was never about Trading, more about who has the biggest schlong...
I'll draw a line under that one...
So Grandpa, getting back to that battle back in 1773 ...I'm going to have to ban you from my thread..
It was possibly one of the most hilarious threads I have ever seen on FF. OP starts it by saying that all Forex education is BS, within 10 posts the market is random, gets some predictable backlash, a few posts later, the market is chaos, more backlash. Then it just turns into a blood bath where the 4 year old OP with his academia fights people that have been successful but expects them to prove themselves. He can't prove himself of course because he hasn't long started puberty. 1000 posts later, he can't handle the heat and now it seems the whole thread is about mathematically predicting the market...... like that's never been tried before
- #689
- Feb 9, 2022 3:41pm Feb 9, 2022 3:41pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
It was possibly one of the most hilarious threads I have ever seen on FF. OP starts it by saying that all Forex education is BS, within 10 posts the market is random, gets some predictable backlash, a few posts later, the market is chaos, more backlash. Then it just turns into a blood bath where the 4 year old OP with his academia fights people that have been successful but expects them to prove themselves. He can't prove himself of course because he hasn't long started puberty. 1000 posts later, he can't handle the heat and now it seems the whole...
Now don’t tell me, he’s also booted you out! Lol.
I’ll watch him go up against BWilliam, now that would be carnage..
- #691
- Feb 9, 2022 4:22pm Feb 9, 2022 4:22pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
I was gone before you mate
It’s just a matter of time and persistence, not giving up is the most crucial factor however the now generation are used to having it done for them, this game is different!
I gave him a clue when I mentioned ‘barrow boys’ but that didn’t trigger a response.
You’re most welcome to stick around, I’ll be banning ohitsyou by the end of today…
…just for the sport. Andy.
- #693
- Feb 9, 2022 5:02pm Feb 9, 2022 5:02pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Straight line Fest | 3,194 Posts
{quote} That's fine -- I've been tossed out of better shit-holes...
- #694
- Feb 9, 2022 5:18pm Feb 9, 2022 5:18pm
It was possibly one of the most hilarious threads I have ever seen on FF. OP starts it by saying that all Forex education is BS, within 10 posts the market is random, gets some predictable backlash, a few posts later, the market is chaos, more backlash. Then it just turns into a blood bath where the 4 year old OP with his academia fights people that have been successful but expects them to prove themselves. He can't prove himself of course because he hasn't long started puberty. 1000 posts later, he can't handle the heat and now it seems the whole...
now it seems the whole thread is about mathematically predicting the market...... like that's never been tried before
I forgot who it was I had a disagreement with last year. He thought that DD didn't count against his account value. In other words, if his account balance was $500 then he had $500 and it didn't matter if he had open trades that were $350 in DD. He thought his broker continued to treat him as a $500 client.
- #696
- Feb 9, 2022 5:42pm Feb 9, 2022 5:42pm
- Joined Jan 2020 | Status: Membership revoke | 2,332 Posts
Know what you trade
- #698
- Feb 9, 2022 6:14pm Feb 9, 2022 6:14pm
- Joined Dec 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,594 Posts
Gambler's ruin is the reason why people lose money. Blaming misleading education or stupid is just the usual excuse.
Hi BW,
I will continue to watch cTs thread, from afar, lol
What you guys say is very true about the blame required for someones losses.
However, cT is moving into an interesting tease at the moment, regarding the maths formulas and the Markov probability principles.
From what "little" I know of Markov was in relation to "casino gambling" (they tried it with horseracing and it didn't quite work
I think because the number & amount of variables - which went past 20 I think - shut it down).The useability of Markov as I understand is based on ONE premise ONLY.
And that is that the "subject" of probability under consideration HAS to be that it is a .... RANDOM ... concept. Such as a coin flip for example.
Now two things happen here.
A trader AND or a quant like cT, can BOTH prove that it is possible to have a positive outcome,
ie ending up with the market could be RANDOM or that it is NOT.
BOTH can be proved correct in a small sample size assessment ( ie even just one year of trading)
IF there is a positive financial outcome from their trades.
But that then becomes TALEB's situation of "Fooled By Randomness"
What I mean is - that if cT's Markov trades are successfull, or not, AND based only on the PREMISE that the forex market is RANDOM,
is that it will still prove nothing, to either Taleb, us or maybe the rest of the world I guess.
If his EA does work and it can show a profit then I am happy for him AND the folks that download the EA for free from the mql5 site,
as he may well have saved one more person from 'losing' their full brief in this tough forex world.
But it will prove nothing unfortunately about the fact that the forex market is, and for those that have studied it in their own depth, NOT random at all
(and in THAT, even the REAL folk from the old "Real or Algo" days will AGREE - it is NOT random, just a matter of who each think is pulling the strings).
(Should be fun though. A shame to see that SINGLE poster was banned from cTs thread. The Moodybot-OIY collective
, gepards fk'd up badly on that premise)
- #699
- Feb 9, 2022 6:37pm Feb 9, 2022 6:37pm
{quote} Hi BW, I will continue to watch cTs thread, from afar, lol What you guys say is very true about the blame required for someones losses. However, cT is moving into an interesting tease at the moment, regarding the maths formulas and the Markov probability principles. From what "little" I know of Markov was in relation to "casino gambling" (they tried it with horseracing and it didn't quite work
In the sport of baseball a player has a career batting average -- say 0.250. But at the beginning of the year he's hitting 0.150. Over the coming months an experienced player will gradually raise his average to 0.250 -- that is, his performance "reverts to the mean". He'll remain in the lineup as long as the manager has confidence in him. But trading is different -- you don't have the luxury of time to allow for "reverting to the mean". Once your account drops to a certain point you are done -- you can't ask your broker for more time because Markov predicts you have a 57% chance of redeeming yourself.
Stats are only concerned with wins and losses and do not take into account their sequence. Consider a 50% win rate of:
1. W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L
or
2. L-L-L-W-L-L-W-W-W-W
In scenario (2) you're toast by the 3rd or 5th trade. But with the luxury of infinite resources and time your statistics allow you to complete all 10 trades before it computes a result. In other words the sequence that wins and losses occur makes a difference, and stats do not take that into consideration.
Do you know what I mean?
PS: That's why back-testing for 10 years is meaningless. If you were to zoom into those charts (with 1000's of trades) you'd see dips where the account would have been margin-called. But when viewing those equity curves from 30,000 feet you don't see the dips.