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  • #2,001
  • Dec 16, 2021 7:34am Dec 16, 2021 7:34am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} I did try this method out in the past but I don't like to predict or forecast things that much. Prefer to let price action guide me. It's definitely no gentle beast but I'm sure if you can tame it, it whispers to you sometimes. Are you expecting price to reject 1830 and crash as I am expecting?
I am expecting a new high. In the monthly chart below, you can see it is forming a cup with handle formation. At some point, I expect a breakout to the upside.

The reason is inflation. I believe the central banks are way behind the curve. They will have to raise interest rates much more than they are planning in order to reign the beast. This is similar to what happened in the seventies with Volcker. Raising interest rates so steeply will inevitably bring a recession and stagflation. This is turn will bring down the stock market 40% to 50%. Bottom line: runaway inflation and a collapsing stock market is the perfect scenario for new highs in gold.

The whole thing should take 2 to 3 years to complete.

Of course, I may be totally wrong...
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Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #2,002
  • Dec 16, 2021 7:47am Dec 16, 2021 7:47am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} I am expecting a new high. In the monthly chart below, you can see it is forming a cup with handle formation. At some point, I expect a breakout to the upside. The reason is inflation. I believe the central banks are way behind the curve. They will have to raise interest rates much more than they are planning in order to reign the beast. This is similar to what happened in the seventies with Volcker. Raising interest rates so steeply will inevitably bring a recession and stagflation. This is turn will bring down the stock market 40% to 50%....
Balancing the economy is definitely something very delicate and difficult to do. I'm not a fan of patterns, mainly just engulfing bars and head and shoulders but I do not trade any others. Nonetheless, would hope your trade plan plays out according to how you think it would go. Good luck!
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #2,003
  • Dec 16, 2021 8:15am Dec 16, 2021 8:15am
Sold regular bearish divergence
Stop loss 1793.50
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  • #2,004
  • Dec 16, 2021 8:19am Dec 16, 2021 8:19am
Quoting AlfieSolomon
Sold regular bearish divergence Stop loss 1793.50 {image}
Take profit hit 20 pips
  • #2,005
  • Dec 16, 2021 8:27am Dec 16, 2021 8:27am
Quoting AlfieSolomon
Sold regular bearish divergence Stop loss 1793.50 {image}
I like how you use bearish divergence RSI. I used as well with a period of 7. I trade higher time frames though H1 onwards
  • #2,006
  • Dec 16, 2021 8:52am Dec 16, 2021 8:52am
Quoting TrickorTrade
{quote} I like how you use bearish divergence RSI. I used as well with a period of 7. I trade higher time frames though H1 onwards
Whenever it occurs on 5 min it gives quick 10-20 pips with very less drawdown
  • #2,007
  • Dec 16, 2021 9:02am Dec 16, 2021 9:02am
Quoting aeternum
Gold just had its first failed test at licking 1790. Time to see what it wants to do here. I'm still having fun scalping longs.
Hourly gold has broken previous resistance at 1792.11, testing the highs at 1794. Eyes forward to 1800-1808 at this point. I'm keen to see some retracement on hourly for more buying though.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #2,008
  • Dec 16, 2021 9:32am Dec 16, 2021 9:32am
Quoting phd893
{quote} {image}
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  • #2,009
  • Dec 16, 2021 9:53pm Dec 16, 2021 9:53pm
Quoting aeternum
{quote} Hourly gold has broken previous resistance at 1792.11, testing the highs at 1794. Eyes forward to 1800-1808 at this point. I'm keen to see some retracement on hourly for more buying though.
Gold has broken 1800 pretty effortlessly but 1H and 4H is starting to look overbought.

Weekly price action suggests we may get more upside if we can close today above 1800
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #2,010
  • Dec 17, 2021 12:19am Dec 17, 2021 12:19am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} Gold has broken 1800 pretty effortlessly but 1H and 4H is starting to look overbought. Weekly price action suggests we may get more upside if we can close today above 1800
I will start to be wary of gold's price action from here to 1808, it is overbought and definitely slowing down. Can expect a retracement here. Hoping 1790 holds for us to propel towards 1830.

If 1790 holds, I will look to put in more longs for 1830, still holding 2 positions at 1784 and 1785 with 1786 SL.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #2,011
  • Dec 17, 2021 12:54am Dec 17, 2021 12:54am
Quoting phd893
{quote} {image}
1813.xx 1/1 channel up line & D1
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  • #2,012
  • Dec 17, 2021 1:32am Dec 17, 2021 1:32am
My opinion about gold
Support and resistance are identified
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  • #2,013
  • Dec 17, 2021 1:37am Dec 17, 2021 1:37am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} I will start to be wary of gold's price action from here to 1808, it is overbought and definitely slowing down. Can expect a retracement here. Hoping 1790 holds for us to propel towards 1830. If 1790 holds, I will look to put in more longs for 1830, still holding 2 positions at 1784 and 1785 with 1786 SL.
Im waiting as well for a pullback to 1790 to go long. Lets see
  • #2,014
  • Dec 17, 2021 2:00am Dec 17, 2021 2:00am
Quoting TrickorTrade
{quote} Im waiting as well for a pullback to 1790 to go long. Lets see
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  • #2,015
  • Edited 7:52am Dec 17, 2021 6:40am | Edited 7:52am
Quoting phd893
{quote} 1813.xx 1/1 kanal yukarı satır & D1 {image} {image}
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h2 chart was perfect // munchie
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  • #2,016
  • Dec 17, 2021 1:36pm Dec 17, 2021 1:36pm
Quoting sboy.s63
My opinion about gold Support and resistance are identified {image}
update
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  • #2,017
  • Dec 18, 2021 12:11am Dec 18, 2021 12:11am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} I will start to be wary of gold's price action from here to 1808, it is overbought and definitely slowing down. Can expect a retracement here. Hoping 1790 holds for us to propel towards 1830. If 1790 holds, I will look to put in more longs for 1830, still holding 2 positions at 1784 and 1785 with 1786 SL.
Gold on the weekly looks pretty good for more upside but the daily looks horrible with 4H clearly showing a pinbar doji rejection off near 1815. If you look at the 1H chart, you will find that 1811.7/9 is the tip of the resistance where it has been resistance 3 previous times since the drop from 1877.

We have some minor support at 1796 region based on previous price action, lower down we get to the 1789-1791 area for support. This would be where I want to see price show some proper bullish price action and give us a push past 1812 region.

Breaking 1812 will likely show us 1830 and also fulfil a decent bullish picture for seasonals. Overshooting 1830 will likely give us 1850 so it's time to see what price does around those levels.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #2,018
  • Edited 3:54am Dec 18, 2021 3:34am | Edited 3:54am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} Gold on the weekly looks pretty good for more upside but the daily looks horrible with 4H clearly showing a pinbar doji rejection off near 1815. If you look at the 1H chart, you will find that 1811.7/9 is the tip of the resistance where it has been resistance 3 previous times since the drop from 1877. We have some minor support at 1796 region based on previous price action, lower down we get to the 1789-1791 area for support. This would be where I want to see price show some proper bullish price action and give us a push past 1812 region....
Retracement to the 1783 level is very possible before rising again. It would be roughly the 50% Fib retracement and a proven support/resistance level.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #2,019
  • Dec 18, 2021 5:32am Dec 18, 2021 5:32am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} Retracement to the 1783 level is very possible before rising again. It would be roughly the 50% Fib retracement and a proven support/resistance level.
Well I won't be surprised if we get there. Interestingly enough, 38.2 is at 1790.83 for me and bouncing off this to 27.2 extension lines up at 1830. Either way I'll be watching prices closely to push my longs into. But there's no way I'd do it based on the current price action.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #2,020
  • Dec 18, 2021 7:20am Dec 18, 2021 7:20am
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