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  • #1,941
  • Dec 10, 2021 2:07pm Dec 10, 2021 2:07pm
Head shoulder formation on gold we see
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  • #1,942
  • Dec 11, 2021 1:08am Dec 11, 2021 1:08am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} It appears that gold was forming a pennant and current bearish move is breaking out of that pennant. I won't be surprised if we drop straight into 1762 unless tomorrow's news can give some form of support to gold. Still looking for that bullish Dec-Jan that is being talked about everywhere.
Overall news on US is positive, however, you need to take into account the bigger picture. In this case, a higher CPI number isn't necessarily better because of the high inflation that is already ongoing.

Gold started a rapid push and got rejected before it managed to break into 1790.

Right now we are still in a consolidation phase, and we need to close strongly above 1791 to consider any longs. There is also a possibility that this is a retest of the trend line breakout as shown in image. Any closure below 1770 should show us 1762 and possibly even lower. There are still no definite bullish or bearish signals here as far as I can tell.
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A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #1,943
  • Dec 11, 2021 11:12pm Dec 11, 2021 11:12pm
we relaize that November has long shadow . and for 1 week december we have to see correction for Gold . but big trend still to go down for december .

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  • #1,944
  • Dec 12, 2021 5:15am Dec 12, 2021 5:15am
Quoting cooldesak
we relaize that November has long shadow . and for 1 week december we have to see correction for Gold . but big trend still to go down for december . {image}
Good sir, most people do call that a wick, not a shadow.

Also, can barely make out anything on your charts. Not sure how you trade like that but if it works for you, all the best!
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #1,945
  • Dec 12, 2021 1:14pm Dec 12, 2021 1:14pm
Long story short, you really want to enter at the place where everybody else puts their stop losses thats game of the market
  • #1,946
  • Dec 12, 2021 1:32pm Dec 12, 2021 1:32pm
how many people put short stop loss above 1796
How many long's at 1760
This game is rigged don't forget
  • #1,947
  • Dec 13, 2021 1:15am Dec 13, 2021 1:15am
Head and shoulders pattern formed. H4 double tops. Price may go to the inefficiency/gap first.
Shorting now is still a low probability setup for me. I would use low risk
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  • #1,948
  • Dec 13, 2021 1:54am Dec 13, 2021 1:54am
Quoting TrickorTrade
Head and shoulders pattern formed. H4 double tops. Price may go to the inefficiency/gap first. Shorting now is still a low probability setup for me. I would use low risk {image}
I wouldn't say that is a head and shoulders pattern.

Head and shoulders pattern generally form after a period of bullishness, in which case here, there is almost no sign of that.

What I would like for instead is a break of the black line which is around 1790. That will give us a higher high and higher low with a possibility of turning 1790 back into an area of support (price level flip).

Failure to do that would instead potentially bring us back down to see 1770 again.

I have also drawn out a triangle area which it is breaking higher out of, but I do not really trust triangle patterns because trendlines can be drawn in many possible ways. So the most reliable thing to look for is simple price action and support and resistance levels.
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A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #1,949
  • Dec 13, 2021 2:01am Dec 13, 2021 2:01am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} I wouldn't say that is a head and shoulders pattern. Head and shoulders pattern generally form after a period of bullishness, in which case here, there is almost no sign of that. What I would like for instead is a break of the black line which is around 1790. That will give us a higher high and higher low with a possibility of turning 1790 back into an area of support (price level flip). Failure to do that would instead potentially bring us back down to see 1770 again. I have also drawn out a triangle area which it is breaking higher out...
Spot on with the levels. Daily has been rejecting 1790 for many days now. A break and retest I would take longs here. But failure to so yes 1770 or lower is very likely.
To me its a clear head and shoulder pattern if you look at H8 time frame. Thats the beauty of the market, We all analyze different but outcome targets are the usually the same.

Thanks for your input and continuous analysis on gold on this thread. Your knowledge on gold is spot on. Its very much appreciated.
  • #1,950
  • Dec 13, 2021 3:04am Dec 13, 2021 3:04am
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  • #1,951
  • Edited 11:24am Dec 13, 2021 3:09am | Edited 11:24am
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/15021...-group-limited

MetaTrader 5, Real // UpR // H4 HLHH Up
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  • #1,952
  • Dec 14, 2021 4:03am Dec 14, 2021 4:03am
Gold buy possible
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  • #1,953
  • Dec 14, 2021 8:26am Dec 14, 2021 8:26am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} I wouldn't say that is a head and shoulders pattern. Head and shoulders pattern generally form after a period of bullishness, in which case here, there is almost no sign of that. What I would like for instead is a break of the black line which is around 1790. That will give us a higher high and higher low with a possibility of turning 1790 back into an area of support (price level flip). Failure to do that would instead potentially bring us back down to see 1770 again. I have also drawn out a triangle area which it is breaking higher out...
So what I basically saw was a failure to break above the black line show in the picture. I also spotted attached image on the 15 mins time frame.

You can see that price clearly formed a lower low, and tried to take back the 1785 level with no success. Eventually forming a little ascending triangle before the big break down. This break was also caused by positive PPI numbers. But if you take a good look at USDJPY, you'll realize it has barely moved as compared to gold.

Bear Case:
Closing below 1770 is pretty bearish and current price is aiming towards 1762 once again which has provided support multiple times. A break of this will likely give us 1726.

Bull Case:
If you zoom out to the daily chart, you will notice that price has still not given us a low below 1726 and we have broken 1830 highs up towards 1870. Should this turn out to be a retracement for a push for a higher high, breaking 1870 would likely give us a retest of 1908-1910 highs from May 2021.

Current price is a really hot knife being dropped from the sky, buying here is simply gambling (unless you're so experienced at scalping that you can get away with it). I will sit around and wait for bullish price action at current levels down to 1761/2. Being slightly cheaper to buy closer to a key support level, gives you better R/R rather than "forecasting" that price will be going up.
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A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #1,954
  • Dec 14, 2021 9:01am Dec 14, 2021 9:01am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} So what I basically saw was a failure to break above the black line show in the picture. I also spotted attached image on the 15 mins time frame. You can see that price clearly formed a lower low, and tried to take back the 1785 level with no success. Eventually forming a little ascending triangle before the big break down. This break was also caused by positive PPI numbers. But if you take a good look at USDJPY, you'll realize it has barely moved as compared to gold. Bear Case: Closing below 1770 is pretty bearish and current price is aiming...
Looks like we've got lots of buyers interested in buying 1767/8 levels. We have yet to close below 1770/1. Still possible for bulls to come into the picture but it isn't exactly the type of price action I want to jump into just yet
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #1,955
  • Edited Dec 15, 2021 12:29am Dec 14, 2021 10:27pm | Edited Dec 15, 2021 12:29am
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  • #1,956
  • Dec 15, 2021 2:31am Dec 15, 2021 2:31am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} So what I basically saw was a failure to break above the black line show in the picture. I also spotted attached image on the 15 mins time frame. You can see that price clearly formed a lower low, and tried to take back the 1785 level with no success. Eventually forming a little ascending triangle before the big break down. This break was also caused by positive PPI numbers. But if you take a good look at USDJPY, you'll realize it has barely moved as compared to gold. Bear Case: Closing below 1770 is pretty bearish and current price is aiming...
Awesome analysis. Spot on with the expectations.
Yes I have the same expectations. If 1760 NOV lows support breaks I will look for longs or a break of 1790 breaking giving me entries for long.
As I had mentioned daily candles kept rejecting 1790 level also 8H timeframe gave us clear Head and shoulder patten that why I did not take any position.
Now we may see a retest of 1780 before heading down
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  • #1,957
  • Dec 15, 2021 4:27am Dec 15, 2021 4:27am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} Looks like we've got lots of buyers interested in buying 1767/8 levels. We have yet to close below 1770/1. Still possible for bulls to come into the picture but it isn't exactly the type of price action I want to jump into just yet
Price has closed below 1770 but buyers are coming in from 1767. We are currently limited by 1770.7 region, shown in attached image on 15 min chart.

If you look at 1H, you will notice the past 2 hours has bullish movement but long wicks on the top, indicating that there are still sellers keen on selling here.

On the 4H, we can see a little doji formed, there is still no indication of buying on the 4H, I would prefer to see the next 4H show a decent bullish candle but it is likely we won't get much action until the news. It is very critical what the Fed and Powell himself says later and it will likely cause lots of knee jerking reactions to gold.

Do note that gold is going to see some upcoming seasonal bullishness soon, but we may still see it drop later. Anything can happen.
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A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #1,958
  • Dec 15, 2021 9:26am Dec 15, 2021 9:26am
Quoting sergo
abcd + crab parent on daily something like that {image}{image}
finally it's coming to the end this is where I tend to go long
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  • #1,959
  • Dec 15, 2021 9:45am Dec 15, 2021 9:45am
ittle bit more maybe spike down maybe not but she'll be ready for me
  • #1,960
  • Dec 15, 2021 9:51am Dec 15, 2021 9:51am
a little bit scary day to trade with all the idiots on the hill with their statements but I will see
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