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  • #881
  • Edited 9:11am Sep 17, 2021 8:45am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting tradernx
{quote} what makes you think it could break your "4 point"? I simply see a descending triangle conformation (1W-1D) which needs to be split upwards by the end of the year
The long contracts from #1 were already delivered above. There is not any reason for prices to come back initially if we only consider the settlement of these longs that were generated mainly at #1.

Now the market is moving prices down to allocate the short contracts generated at the top generating liquidity to settle these orders below.

Ideally, a suboptimal price level to complete that sell program could be the 1500 level according to the current trading structure on the chart.

There is a huge amount of liquidity down at the 1450 level and, therefore, it is not clear whether the market will have interest in retaking these prices to higher levels or to complete the short program by dropping the short contracts took above down to the 1400 area where a lot of sell stops reside and therefore could be used to make effective the shorts from above.

The shorts from above require participants to repurchase gold and give it back to the market, so these sell stops could be used to buy the shorts and close the contracts carried from above. The other possibility is that the market considers that the current volume of long positions at the 1500 makes convenient a new ascending repricing program, as they could also serve as counterpart orders for the shorts.

That is why I think it could fall.

Another point is that Gold commonly stays within a range between september and october and, then, on November and December it usually moves up. That is a good scenario to break the lows during next month and then deliver a new rise in prices during the last part of Q4.

Other factors could be considered like the current open interest in the futures markets or the Fed's monetary policy for the incoming quarters because US and Gold are inversely correlated. But, technically speaking, these do not matter.
  • #882
  • Sep 17, 2021 9:26am Sep 17, 2021 9:26am
Quoting scherzi
{quote} The long contracts from #1 were already delivered above. There is not any reason for prices to come back initially if we only consider the settlement of these longs that were generated mainly at #1. Now the market is moving prices down to allocate the short contracts generated at the top generating liquidity to settle these orders below. Ideally, a suboptimal price level to complete that sell program could be the 1500 level according to the current trading structure on the chart. There is a huge amount of liquidity down at the 1450 level...
to be honest, i don't really know what you are thalking about, as till now i still don't understand how 'sell order' been made,

but it's nice to see smart people with a well education on this forum just like you...

if you don't mind please teach us about that, sell order, sell stop scheme, etc, and it does matter gold will really go down or goes up, i think basic knoledge is more important than trading right now.
  • #883
  • Sep 17, 2021 10:31am Sep 17, 2021 10:31am
Quoting bilal1947
Gold long, lets see how it goes {image}
Good buy there and hope you have taken profit.
Because it's clear to me is a bearish trend...
and usually after 20 dollars of correction, the trend continues.
Just to add on...I don't trust this inverted HnS.
Aim for what's achievable and don't be a dreamer.
  • #884
  • Edited 11:53am Sep 17, 2021 11:22am | Edited 11:53am
Quoting DLTrader
{quote} Good buy there and hope you have taken profit. Because it's clear to me is a bearish trend... and usually after 20 dollars of correction, the trend continues. Just to add on...I don't trust this inverted HnS.
Not really, i got B.E and a bit burnt too ... Was on the wrong side today. I guess that is pretty normal... Like in our day to day life we do make mistakes while we know hoe to do a task yet mistakes happens... Same thing is here... Important is when we are ready to book the loss and gets out.

I am not used to hedge yet.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #885
  • Sep 17, 2021 11:27am Sep 17, 2021 11:27am
Quoting baikenan
{quote} to be honest, i don't really know what you are thalking about, as till now i still don't understand how 'sell order' been made, but it's nice to see smart people with a well education on this forum just like you... if you don't mind please teach us about that, sell order, sell stop scheme, etc, and it does matter gold will really go down or goes up, i think basic knoledge is more important than trading right now.
Yes, it is more important being able to trade at the moment you need to than having a predefined bias for next week.

I cannot, no one can, teach how to trade or how I trade.

The style I have is very influenced by Michael Huddleston's ICT concepts. I do not recommend it neither because I think by experience that it is not adequate for the vast majority of persons. There is a series of 5 vids that introduce the concepts. It is not a trading methodology mainly speaking; it is a foundational system with dozens of different pieces that after a few years of deep study may or may not make applicable effective sense for one's trading methodology.

Inserted Video



In any case, I do not teach nor explain that system because everything I can explain is already on free videos on Youtube.
  • #886
  • Edited Sep 18, 2021 5:07am Sep 17, 2021 11:40am | Edited Sep 18, 2021 5:07am
All good luck.
  • #887
  • Sep 17, 2021 12:02pm Sep 17, 2021 12:02pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Not really, i got B.E and a bit burnt too ... Was on the wrong side today. I guess that is pretty normal... Like in our day to day life we do make mistakes while we know hoe to do a task yet mistakes happens... Same thing is here... Important is when we are ready to book the loss and gets out. I am not used to hedge yet.
Sorry to hear that but just as you already know, it's part of the journey.
I really think it is a good buy for intraday trading, and usually anything more than 100 pips is plentiful for the day.
And I don't think you were on the wrong side, you were right before it moves against you so you were right fundamentally speaking.
We all learn through mistakes like this and I hope you will do better next time.
I mean...it really was a good entry
Aim for what's achievable and don't be a dreamer.
  • #888
  • Edited 2:45pm Sep 17, 2021 12:21pm | Edited 2:45pm
Quoting DLTrader
{quote} Sorry to hear that but just as you already know, it's part of the journey. I really think it is a good buy for intraday trading, and usually anything more than 100 pips is plentiful for the day. And I don't think you were on the wrong side, you were right before it moves against you so you were right fundamentally speaking. We all learn through mistakes like this and I hope you will do better next time. I mean...it really was a good entry
yes, it was usually these days i am spot on from top to bottom full ranges except today. so not a good thing to be wrong and hurts

i have to make peace to be wrong and not perfect.
Have a great weekend.
bilal
"Exchange of hands"
  • #889
  • Sep 17, 2021 2:33pm Sep 17, 2021 2:33pm
Gold is still bearish, monday i expect some further bear side to 1735-1731 with strong bull action after

Lets see
  • #890
  • Sep 18, 2021 12:28am Sep 18, 2021 12:28am
the fact that it has been stuck in the same price range for more than 1 day making minimal moves suggests to me that the bears are also slowing down and that where it is now it could be a strong bullish bounce point. Of course, it might even look like a simple distribution and then collapse again, but looking into larger time frames I noticed a trendline that acts as a bounce point. Twice it was not respected, so my speech and thought may not mean anything. There could also be another vision, at the new opening of the price there will be another small drop to take as much liquidity as possible up to price 1720-1730 (support) and then it will definitely restart in buy. I don't know why but I can't see the price go down any further.
Any thoughts on my reasoning?
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  • #891
  • Sep 18, 2021 2:15am Sep 18, 2021 2:15am
Quoting pundit78
Shorted Gold {image}
Yesterday's closed trades.
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  • #892
  • Edited 5:48am Sep 18, 2021 5:04am | Edited 5:48am
Quoting tradernx
the fact that it has been stuck in the same price range for more than 1 day making minimal moves suggests to me that the bears are also slowing down and that where it is now it could be a strong bullish bounce point. Of course, it might even look like a simple distribution and then collapse again, but looking into larger time frames I noticed a trendline that acts as a bounce point. Twice it was not respected, so my speech and thought may not mean anything. There could also be another vision, at the new opening of the price there will be another...
Regarding the trendlines, markets pricing are not directly subject to these trendlines. Of course one can do a lot of things with TLs, but not using them as a generic price anticipation method everywhere. The computer programs that produce prices on the electronic markets we trade do not use trendlines nor any other type of charting pattern; it is all based on how to complete orders settlement within a predefined price range using the available positions and provisions present in the market. In my opinion it is more important the orders distribution than the volume itself (power of bulls and bears) for price, since price is not directly related to volume.

Instead, when you consider the levels of price and how these levels relate to the liquidity in your market, it is easier see why price bounces on each price area. If an area was used to build orders with a net positive result in the pricing equation, you may expect some kind of reaction of the same type when price comes back.

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Now, if you look closer at the daily price action. Each time price returned back into level 2 had a reaction. Now it has shown two days of weak rejection, but it is still there. You cannot determine that well what will happen to the daily chart just by looking the daily candles. You only know that now you are more or less in the middle of the daily structure at an area that has been showing positive reactions and that you have the 1800 level above not retested yet. The area has been already traded a lot of times and price had to go lower down to the base of the structure to find available orders, therefore the net long liquidity is very low there and it seems that the market has more interest in allocating orders from above into the lows in the following weeks. For next Monday, the only fact is that you are on a support level. But you cannot know if it will respect it. I think it is quite probable that the market will close and/or trade above the current Friday's close price because it is idle on support. But no one knows what will happen.

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Looking at the market right now, what I think is that the 1800 level might be used to leverage a drop or a reaction of considerable intensity in terms of the daily range and that the triple top above at the 1830s it is a fake resistance. I think the resistance is higher at the 1880 area. These are the levels I really would be looking at. And I think that price is looking for a raid below at the 1650 level at least. But that is a generic schema and the sequence of moves that the price will complete to reach these levels and objectives if it would do it, because I don't know if it will be or not the final outcome, is unknown to me.
  • #893
  • Sep 18, 2021 5:05am Sep 18, 2021 5:05am
Spot metal trades are zero sum game like any other futures trades. Your lose is another person's gain and reverse is true. Happy trading !
  • #894
  • Sep 18, 2021 8:50am Sep 18, 2021 8:50am
Quoting scherzi
{quote} Regarding the trendlines, markets pricing are not directly subject to these trendlines. Of course one can do a lot of things with TLs, but not using them as a generic price anticipation method everywhere. The computer programs that produce prices on the electronic markets we trade do not use trendlines nor any other type of charting pattern; it is all based on how to complete orders settlement within a predefined price range using the available positions and provisions present in the market. In my opinion it is more important the orders...
Thanks for your very detailed answer, I love to exchange opinions with other traders and other points of view, I would like to see bad dollar data Wednesday so that we can finally see gold overcome all this conformation more easily
  • #895
  • Sep 18, 2021 9:31am Sep 18, 2021 9:31am
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gold is definitely bearish overview , but i think short term bullish could grab me some 15-20p
  • #896
  • Sep 18, 2021 1:26pm Sep 18, 2021 1:26pm
I agree with some who said that market does not respect TL. Not only trend line but does not respect any indicator either. MM drive market depending with price rage given to them by the regulator like world bank to avoid colapsing the market.This rage are mostly given weekly.They have their algarithim to take market to a re-difined areas and target.Retail traders can only be able to determine the move the MM intend to take by using prints they disply on chart. on my chart price analasyse shall be seal on Monday after London session opens. this is just my expectation. I am never long term bias i trade what i see.
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  • #897
  • Sep 19, 2021 1:51am Sep 19, 2021 1:51am
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  • #898
  • Sep 19, 2021 3:11am Sep 19, 2021 3:11am
The selloff of the gold continued through last week and trades steadily below 1800.

A rebound that came last Friday was easily wiped out, essentially trapping more buyers.

The market is clearly feeling bearish and we expect a revisit of the 15-month demand at 1700 in the upcoming week or the next.

We could still see a potential upside back to 1770 - 1780 area while it consolidates at the beginning and that's where we are looking to sell.

We could still look for intraday buy opportunity as long as 1750 stays unbroken.
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Aim for what's achievable and don't be a dreamer.
  • #899
  • Edited 2:55pm Sep 19, 2021 10:58am | Edited 2:55pm
Low liquidity in Asian session can cause a SLip like on Aug 9
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Air force
  • #900
  • Sep 20, 2021 12:27am Sep 20, 2021 12:27am
Hi Guys,

We planned trade at 1745 and SL : 1740 and Target is 1794.

and now , we are planning for sell @ 1794 to 1629 as long term target .

because, DXY AT 93.33 at resistance level now, tommorrow, it will reach the support and move high as 24 level .

So, from 1794 onwards GOLD moves down to 1629 level target.


--- if my analysis wrong post me your opinion on this....
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