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Flying Dutchman

  • #261
  • Aug 5, 2021 7:41pm Aug 5, 2021 7:41pm
Quoting TimeTells
{quote} Hi BW, Hahaaa Well I might not go so far as to call it hate, J. Think of it maybe like you are communicating with kids. And I do NOTmean that traders here on FF you chat with are kids, just natural human responses. It's a bit like. (More analogies, sorry, but not cars this time) You tell your own kids you have lollies. Lots of lollies. And you tell them lollies are hidden in a room, somewhere inside a big 2 storey house. Go look for them. But the kids don’t want to look. They want lollies. They just want you to tell them which...
First a story with cars. Now lollies? Man, you are on a roll! Keep it going!
  • #262
  • Aug 5, 2021 8:00pm Aug 5, 2021 8:00pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} First a story with cars. Now lollies? Man, you are on a roll! Keep it going!
He would be if he was still in the car!
  • #263
  • Edited 8:42pm Aug 5, 2021 8:23pm | Edited 8:42pm
Quoting TimeTells
Here’s another post of yours I found interesting. {quote} Now that is interesting. To me. (I'll continue searching for the algo maths price intent, in my own small way. And close the loop). No hate, all is good, FF sure keeps a mind active all the best BW, and to all
Hi Pete, price intent is the Paititi goldmine.

Price level without intent has limited value. Support and resistance, fibs, pivot, brn, line of control, target... It's just another number on the chart.

Price intent is everything. This helps the trader see through the "noise". Sieve the fake from the real. Like in poker when some bettor make a large call, you somehow know he's bluffing you can go all in to win a large pot.

In Forex trading, when the algo is "bluffing" trading above or below a certain level the trader can make a killing if he knows the price intent.

If you study the charts carefully there are plenty of "bluffing" that the algo execute. Some big some small. Example, usdchf the "bluff" was the 2 big 1hr bearish candles. Price intent is to stay up. Otoh, EU price intent is to attack 1.1810. So that bullish move that bilal traded was the algo "bluff". Trade against the "bluff" that's when you have the upper hand.

In poker, your opponent makes a huge "bluff" call to lure you in or to force you to fold. Even if you know the probability is on your side you need guts to take on a all in bet. In Forex, the algo will also make all in "bluff" to instil fear in the trader. Even if the trader knows price intent he must have the guts to believe in what he knows. This "guts" is the Holy grail of Forex trading.

Price levels and price intent can be taught. But guts is a different thing altogether. It determines how much money you make from what you know. Guts is everything. Without guts, everything else is moot. Blessed are those who have big b....

One last point, if you look at bilal's trade on EU, the better trade is on Usdchf that happened at the same time. The algo "bluff" is clearer.
Know what you trade
  • #264
  • Aug 5, 2021 9:08pm Aug 5, 2021 9:08pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Pete, price intent is the Paititi goldmine.

Hahaa, cheers BW

See, I learn something new each day.

I had to do a search tho for this one.

https://mysteriesrunsolved.com/2020/...y-paititi.html
  • #265
  • Edited 9:21pm Aug 5, 2021 9:11pm | Edited 9:21pm
Quoting BWilliam
The EU market today is clear evidence of algo manipulation. Unlike what a real auction market of sd economics that it should be. Notice how the market is stuck inside a 28pips range. A clear artificial bottom of 1.1832. And the only time that made a 20pips run is bilal's trade. Mostly price hang around going nowhere. So bilal that is not a bullish run. Was this predictable? Yes. After the massive manipulated plunge on Wednesday price was taken south to stop near this 1.1810 pre-fomc level. As if hanging around waiting for something. Ofc this master...
BWilliam, I agree with some of your analysis here, but of course, I am not on Team Algo, which I will address in a minute. Just to compare notes, like you, I was not surprised about the PA on E$ today. Nor was I surprised by PA on the F$, the $Y, the A$, or the $CAD. The BOE maintained its course, which was expected. That was pretty much the whole show today. Nothing of significance aside from BOE. Today was sandwiched in between ISM yesterday and NFP tomorrow. A day for everyone to catch their breath and prepare for NFP. Some of that prep work is underway right now (it's almost 7PM PST), and we'll likely see that continue on the run up to NFP. Nothing out of the ordinary. Pretty much a typical day-before-NFP trading day.

I am on board with your comment that there are several levels that are "on the radar" every trading day. These levels are part of the plan for that trading day. It would be interesting for us to just post our thoughts on this from time to time, not to compete with one another but to share ideas on this topic. It is an important part of trading preparation. And I exchange this information regularly with my trading group. So we agree that it's important. And I agree we can't predict which level gets hit, but we can and should prepare to trade to them.

I think we would be in agreement on quite a lot, if it weren't for the algo idea. I told Moodybot today that the idea of an algo was a delusion. But, after thinking about what you are saying, the algo idea, if just a representation of how the forex works, probably will work. If you replaced "algo" with "bankers", we'd likely agree on over 80% of what is happening in the forex. The processes, procedures and practices in forex banking are so convoluted to most people, that bunching it all together into an algo is likely helpful. I hope it helps you get lots of pips every day.

I have made my thoughts known on the algo in a previous FF thread. No need to go over all that again. But, the actual reason it doesn't exist is that it is illegal, in every nation on earth, and in international court. The forex is represented to be a true decentralized market, and forex price data is represented to be actual and true buy sell pricing activities. If someone were to throw the algo into the mix without disclosure, then this would represent the biggest case of collusion in history, with price activity being fraudulently and deceitfully presented as true buy sell pricing. This, in and of itself, is not a crime. But, the conspiracy to present non-market pricing as market pricing is a conspiracy, like racketeering and restraint of fair trade. I think the algo guys would be in jail by now.

Good trading everyone!
  • #266
  • Aug 5, 2021 9:11pm Aug 5, 2021 9:11pm
Quoting BWilliam
{quote}
Price intent is everything. This helps the trader see through the "noise". Sieve the fake from the real.


Yes BW,
I believe that is the 'missing link' for many a trader.
  • #267
  • Aug 5, 2021 9:50pm Aug 5, 2021 9:50pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I have made my thoughts known on the algo in a previous FF thread. No need to go over all that again. But, the actual reason it doesn't exist is that it is illegal, in every nation on earth, and in international court. The forex is represented to be a true decentralized market, and forex price data is represented to be actual and true buy sell pricing activities. If someone were to throw the algo into the mix without disclosure, then this would represent the biggest case of collusion in history, with price activity being fraudulently and...
Welcome to the Matrix....and the date is closer to 2223...or something like that.
If BW, without looking at either a chart or Fundamentals can accurately set a price of interest that he can accurately trade to or from, place that price of interest well before the time he expects it to trade, here on Forex Factory, then either its luck or mathematics.
He can only be lucky for so long.
Regarding the idea of collusion or racketeering by the elite in the financial world...... would they in a 4 trillion market....Yep. You bet.
The accuracy of the market, the turning points, stopping exactly to a pip on a 3 year high low ..... that's not left to chance.
Not in my book.
In parliament when about to accuse or slaughter another MP the etiquette is to start with 'my learned friend'....... I like the idea of 'Good trading everyone' at the end of a post so as to keep the debate friendly.
Good trading everyone.
  • #268
  • Aug 5, 2021 10:03pm Aug 5, 2021 10:03pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} If you replaced "algo" with "bankers", we'd likely agree on over 80% of what is happening in the forex.
Bankers, specifically the Central Banks are the ones who print the currency notes and they are responsible to manage them as well, by adjusting the interest rates, printing of notes, by devaluation of currencies to meet respective country economic needs, all will agree to it.

At the end of the day/week price didnt move even more than a few pips, and remains almost at the same levels, no change !

but what happens in intraday is where all forex traders struggles and it is a fact that price does party on the charts on both the sides and throw out both the buyers and seller as well, when the day close price stays at the same level like an innocent child i didnt do any thing.

At 1 o clock demand was so high that it raids all the buy stops and suddenly at 2 o clock Supply came in the market decided to raid the sellers, but at the end of the day price didnt move even more than a few pips so it is all legal while news are their to support these whipsaws to make them look so legal in support

It is just like the contrast between Tax Evasion and Tax Avoidance.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #269
  • Aug 5, 2021 10:20pm Aug 5, 2021 10:20pm
Based on these stop hunts are my entries and Rick's as well which he further confirms from futures market volume, cumm. deltas, this perhaps is the same thing which George highlighted the herd mentality and many taking the benefit out of it which is great and Michael has explain other aspects as well during these stop hunts.

while rest of the traders dont enter at stop hunts but wait once the stop hunts are over and price started moving they jump while the rest still wait for pull back, a bounced to the EMAs.

With regards to Price Intention why it EURUSD didnt move, actually it moved and i took that trade but not like others why this is a question, searching it one by one on our own will take more time while, sharing is caring and brain storming will make us reach there faster.

What i feel it is like a station the train reached to its station and getting ready for departure, and the time of departure came and it starts moving but stops in between as the station master told their is another train which got late and still on the track so EURUSD has to wait meanwhile it has to go back to the station again to finish the left over business while the tracks cleared and perhaps it may take a totally different track which merge to its destination original destination.
"Exchange of hands"
  • #270
  • Aug 5, 2021 10:35pm Aug 5, 2021 10:35pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote}If BW, without looking at either a chart or Fundamentals can accurately set a price of interest that he can accurately trade to or from, place that price of interest well before the time he expects it to trade, here on Forex Factory, then either its luck or mathematics. He can only be lucky for so long.
I respect BWilliam's work in picking levels and targets. It is an advanced skill set. It is, however, not a unique skill. Like I mentioned in my post to him, it is important to know where the market is going, once it decides to move. The real super power, is making the trades, and sticking with them to targets. He is not lucky in his work, but shows real skill and knowledge of the market. He's right about 1.1810. In my analysis, I think the next target is 1.1760. But that one might be a tough road. Anyway, good talking to you.
  • #271
  • Aug 5, 2021 10:36pm Aug 5, 2021 10:36pm
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Bankers, specifically the Central Banks are the ones who print the currency notes and they are responsible to manage them as well, by adjusting the interest rates, printing of notes, by devaluation of currencies to meet respective country economic needs, all will agree to it. At the end of the day/week price didnt move even more than a few pips, and remains almost at the same levels, no change ! but what happens in intraday is where all forex traders struggles and it is a fact that price does party on the charts on both the sides and throw...
Hi Bilal
I can't agree more, my friend
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #272
  • Edited 11:21am Aug 6, 2021 10:50am | Edited 11:21am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} He's right about 1.1810. In my analysis, I think the next target is 1.1760. But that one might be a tough road.
Ok, that target at 1.1810 was taken out earlier today in grinding PA overnight. My target at 1.1760 has been hit and is where the market has ground to a halt, for now. Next target is at 1.1740.

You see, finding targets isn't so difficult.

Edit: actually, next target might be closer to 1.1744, so let's say 1.1743/40.
  • #273
  • Aug 6, 2021 3:43pm Aug 6, 2021 3:43pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Ok, that target at 1.1810 was taken out earlier today in grinding PA overnight. My target at 1.1760 has been hit and is where the market has ground to a halt, for now. Next target is at 1.1740. You see, finding targets isn't so difficult. Edit: actually, next target might be closer to 1.1744, so let's say 1.1743/40.
Absolutely agree with you, price did take out the two order blocks and the targets that both you, I and BW knew were there.
But this is the question that I would like answered.
We know that the order blocks were set last week. Was that because of Fundamentals/supply and demand or an Algo setting those targets based on previous set levels that were themselves based on previous and so on and so on? A mathematical sequence.
This week the order blocks were taken out, as we predicted, and usually to the pip, again was this because of fundamentals or an Algo?
This is my problem. The control required to use just fundamentals and or standard supply and demand to set the targets last week and hit the same targets this week on an ever running cycle can only be mass collusion but you said to me that I was delusional to think that. And in fact that it would be illegal.
Ok, so I'm delusional to think that an Algo could control price movement but once again we can consider Occams Razor, either its mass collusion or an Algo.
As Kevin mentioned to me, its just too precise.
George once described the movement of price as being in a washing machine, price moving up/down/sideways before ultimately heading to an intended target.
Damn confusing when its in the washing machine, watching price react to news or fundamentals. But that right there is the illusion. Price (reacting to news), no not in my book. Just the Algo doing it's thing.
The final problem with fundamentals/supply and demand is BWILLIAM.... mathematically he knows the levels before they are set, in advance, before the data appears on the chart.
Good luck trading.
  • #274
  • Edited 6:20pm Aug 6, 2021 5:59pm | Edited 6:20pm
Quoting bilal1947
Based on these stop hunts are my entries and Rick's as well which he further confirms from futures market volume, cumm. deltas, this perhaps is the same thing which George highlighted the herd mentality and many taking the benefit out of it which is great and Michael has explain other aspects as well during these stop hunts. while rest of the traders dont enter at stop hunts but wait once the stop hunts are over and price started moving they jump while the rest still wait for pull back, a bounced to the EMAs. With regards to Price Intention why...
Hi Bibal

I traded Gold last night during its big drop and I watched it clear out six stop pools on the way down.
All pools were in areas of hour or day lows as described by Georges target theory.
Price did reverse on all locations after the pools were taken out but then continued bearish each time.

Here is a fact that needs pointing out, the amount of liquidity in each pool is less than 2% of the amount of volume needed to reach the pool.
Price is therefore running for juicy stops only to find the amount of liquidity within the pool a major disappointment.

It seems the money is made in the journey to get to stop pools, not the liquidity that is actually there at the destination.

Stop runs are therefore a scam, an excuse to run somewhere to encourage lazy traders to hit the trade button.
I would say 70% of liquidity is created around the perimeters of stop pools, therefore it makes traders execute orders out of fear they are missing something big.

The bankers true scam is the stops are not where traders think they are, they surround highs and lows but mostly before the stop pool on a bearish move or bearish move.

No one actually places stops where we are taught we shouldn’t.
kind of funny really.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #275
  • Aug 6, 2021 6:29pm Aug 6, 2021 6:29pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Ok, so I'm delusional to think that an Algo could control price movement but once again we can consider Occams Razor, either its mass collusion or an Algo.
As Kevin mentioned to me, its just too precise.
George once described the movement of price as being in a washing machine, price moving up/down/sideways before ultimately heading to an intended target.
Damn confusing when its in the washing machine, watching price react to news or fundamentals.
But that right there is the illusion. Price (reacting to news), no not...

Hi Andy,

Yes, highly organised, whatever this is.

(And BW understands it too, known in advance).



From my post on July 15th, 3 weeks ago.

When price was at 1.18370

Quoting TimeTells
{quote} For example in the EU chart above I also have a target (below price) in what I choose to believe is the ALGO REPEATING, and that price is 1.17650.


And price this morning, post NFP, when I wake up ....

[Arnie ("I'll be back") & Dicky Betts ("Back to where it all began") would approve ]

cheers Andy

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15 arnie.png Size: 12 KB
  • #276
  • Aug 6, 2021 6:55pm Aug 6, 2021 6:55pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} Ok, that target at 1.1810 was taken out earlier today in grinding PA overnight.
My target at 1.1760 has been hit and is where the market has ground to a halt, for now.
Next target is at 1.1740. You see, finding targets isn't so difficult.
Edit: actually, next target might be closer to 1.1744, so let's say 1.1743/40.

Nice work GEfx,

I do believe we are all talking about the same thing, maybe just with different words & narrative to explain it.

(Your next target is closer, my next major target below for EU is 1.16920, above are already on this thread)

all the best
Pete
  • #277
  • Aug 6, 2021 8:21pm Aug 6, 2021 8:21pm
Quoting RickM
It seems the money is made in the journey to get to stop pools, not the liquidity that is actually there at the destination. Stop runs are therefore a scam, an excuse to run somewhere to encourage lazy traders to hit the trade button.
You are beginning to figure it out. This type of scam is repeated so much that it has become the gospel truth. There's more such gospel truths that are fake.

Talking about the journey, the massive sell-off that you wrote about earlier. Look at the h4 and higher charts to see the journey.

One of the reasons why I disagree with scalping is this journey. Don't trade for scraps with the knowledge you possess. Why short change yourself? That's what I have always told you.
Know what you trade
  • #278
  • Edited 11:00pm Aug 6, 2021 9:29pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Bibal I traded Gold last night during its big drop and I watched it clear out six stop pools on the way down. All pools were in areas of hour or day lows as described by Georges target theory. Price did reverse on all locations after the pools were taken out but then continued bearish each time. Here is a fact that needs pointing out, the amount of liquidity in each pool is less than 2% of the amount of volume needed to reach the pool. Price is therefore running for juicy stops only to find the amount of liquidity within the pool a major...
Hi Rick

How are you

Thanks for sharing, but i humbly disagree as entries are always at stop hunts only, we have to see what market structure is in play and external/internal range stop hunts should be our entries always, its like tape reading.

I didnt see George touch these things may be not in public but in his inner circle only.

Below are charts before YL stop hunt and what happened afterwards, one has to stay focused on Gold or Dollar index first to get the direction to trade other pairs (though i was asleep during that time got high fever after 2nd dose of the vaccine) later when the move happened i bought all of it at 1760.10

Befor YL stop hunt
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20210807_060215.jpg Size: 203 KB


After stop hunt notice how market shift has happened here, if we were married to the narrative that only YL are stop hunt than we cannot see the structure, we have to react only as price prints

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_20210807_055645.jpg Size: 211 KB


1M divergence price action at RN 1800

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2021-08-07-07-45-18-609_net.metaquotes.metatrader4.jpg Size: 368 KB


P.S: NFP news was a deviation hit.

Regards
bilal (not bibal )
"Exchange of hands"
  • #279
  • Aug 7, 2021 12:14am Aug 7, 2021 12:14am
Quoting bilal1947
{quote} Hi Rick How are you Thanks for sharing, but i humbly disagree as entries are always at stop hunts only, we have to see what market structure is in play and external/internal range stop hunts should be our entries always, its like tape reading. I didnt see George touch these things may be not in public but in his inner circle only. Below are charts before YL stop hunt and what happened afterwards, one has to stay focused on Gold or Dollar index first to get the direction to trade other pairs (though i was asleep during that...
Bilal

On the 29th July the new cycle started for Gold. The reason for the big move, to set targets for for the subsequent move down.

From the moment the move up started, the targets were already known, set by the Algo.

In due course the data demonstrated on the chart would appear to follow Fundamental or technical analysis. Voodoo!

Price would move up/down/sideways undercover of news but absolutely at a time when set by the Algo, price will move systematically to the target/s.

And that’s it.

Completely artificial.

M.
  • #280
  • Aug 7, 2021 12:52am Aug 7, 2021 12:52am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Bilal On the 29th July the new cycle started for Gold. The reason for the big move, to set targets for for the subsequent move down. From the moment the move up started, the targets were already known, set by the Algo. In due course the data demonstrated on the chart would appear to follow Fundamental or technical analysis. Voodoo! Price would move up/down/sideways undercover of news but absolutely at a time when set by the Algo, price will move systematically to the target/s. And that’s it. Completely artificial. M.
Hi Andy, spot on correct. Every move after that moment is "noise" to confuse traders what the algo's intention is. For algo traders we knew where the target is on that day that is 6 days into the future.

That's why I wrote FA and TA is useless because the algo moved so many pips down south but these useless analysis didn't know nothing about what is going to happen. Traders only knew it when price approach the target that can be visually seen on the chart. Only when traders see the volume data they try guess what's about to happen. Traders use red news release to try explain what has happened.

To me, that's simply guessing, although there's method and some rules in the guessing. It's still voodoo guessing.
Know what you trade
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