Fed's Bullard: Q4 2022 interest rate increase is my best case | Metals Mine

  • Fed's Bullard: Q4 2022 interest rate increase is my best case

Added at 9:55am

Added at 9:55am
Added at 9:55am

Added at 9:56am

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EventsTrader
Jul 30, 2021 10:10am
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Per CME FedWatch tool, the majority of market participants still aren't pricing in a rate hike as far out as it goes (Feb 2023). I expect this to start shifting dramatically and when it does you can also expect the usd to appreciate along with it. Jackson Hole pivot is coming.
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yieldjunkie
Jul 30, 2021 10:37am
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Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} What makes it all the more significant is the fact that he's as dovish as they come at the Fed. If this is what Bullard is now publicly stating, the hawks like Rosengren and George (both which will become voters in 2022) could come out even more aggressive soon. But again, I believe the Fed will remain united and allow Powell to make the official pivot at Jackson Hole in Aug.
Great point here - I agree. Seems like there is an increasing likelihood that the tapering, followed by rate increases, is going to happen on a swift schedule once that pivot is made. Bullard pointing to Q4 '22 as "best case" doesn't leave much room.
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yieldjunkie
Jul 30, 2021 10:47am
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And there it is: https://www.forexfactory.com/news/1098225-feds-bullard-wants-taper-to-start-in-fall

That's quite a bit of demand for bonds to be made-up if the Fed is out of the picture by March '22. The currently-disjointed global recovery and delta variant emergence may actually help the market out a good bit here as it fuels outside demand for USTs and mitigates some of the lost demand from the Fed.
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yieldjunkie
Jul 30, 2021 10:49am
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Quoting foto
Jay Powell appointed four year term ends February 2022. Anyone seriously believe that a more Hawkish Fed chief is going to get appointed by current WH occupant. Next Fed chair will make Powell look like a Hawk. Bullard is just noise trying to talk things up.
There seems to be a good chance Powell will be reappointed. In this environment, it would be a bad move to replace him since so much of that role relies on the market's ability to interpret the communicated messages and depend on them.

In my opinion, this is what made Yellen such a successful chair.
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k3nshinz3139
Jul 30, 2021 10:07am
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Ok can rest for this week after this news.
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jordanvic
Jul 30, 2021 9:58am
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Bullard for new fed chair
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yieldjunkie
Jul 30, 2021 10:03am
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Bullard is going to be a voter in 2022. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm

These are pretty significant statements from him.
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foto
Jul 30, 2021 10:46am
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Jay Powell appointed four year term ends February 2022.
Anyone seriously believe that a more Hawkish Fed chief is going to get appointed by current WH occupant.
Next Fed chair will make Powell look like a Hawk.
Bullard is just noise trying to talk things up.
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EventsTrader
Jul 30, 2021 10:14am
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Quoting yieldjunkie
Bullard is going to be a voter in 2022. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm These are pretty significant statements from him.
What makes it all the more significant is the fact that he's as dovish as they come at the Fed. If this is what Bullard is now publicly stating, the hawks like Rosengren and George (both which will become voters in 2022) could come out even more aggressive soon. But again, I believe the Fed will remain united and allow Powell to make the official pivot at Jackson Hole in Aug.
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EventsTrader
Jul 30, 2021 11:44am
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Quoting yieldjunkie
{quote} There seems to be a good chance Powell will be reappointed. In this environment, it would be a bad move to replace him since so much of that role relies on the market's ability to interpret the communicated messages and depend on them. In my opinion, this is what made Yellen such a successful chair.
Powell is definitely going to be reappointed. 100%.
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trumps
Jul 31, 2021 5:22pm
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Quoting foto
Jay Powell appointed four year term ends February 2022. Anyone seriously believe that a more Hawkish Fed chief is going to get appointed by current WH occupant. Next Fed chair will make Powell look like a Hawk. Bullard is just noise trying to talk things up.
Speaking sense you are
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foto
Jul 30, 2021 10:58am — Edited
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Quoting yieldjunkie
{quote} There seems to be a good chance Powell will be reappointed. In this environment, it would be a bad move to replace him since so much of that role relies on the market's ability to interpret the communicated messages and depend on them. In my opinion, this is what made Yellen such a successful chair.
2022 is midterm elections. It is going to be pedal to the metal engineering an economy going into that.
WH occupier is going to want its' own person heading Fed this so as to insure the Socialist agenda charted for USA.

add: watch for what happens in California as Newson is up for recall vote 09/14/21
If California kicks him out that would be Bullish Big time for USD
Mail in ballots are getting sent to everyone so the Fix is most likely in already, "but it ain't over till its' over"

GOP is still out playing Croquet

add: Biden now owns vaccine outcome. Doctors are finding some patients who have been vaccinated, experiencing rather severe reactions caused by damage to their circulatory system as consequence of taking Vaccine.
Vaccine touted as so benign may turn into something else. Am old enough to remember Thalidomide babies and rushing through a Vaccine without proper vetting can turn out very Badly.
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