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  • #3,081
  • Jul 1, 2021 1:51am Jul 1, 2021 1:51am
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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...erm-dip-747743
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,082
  • Jul 1, 2021 2:27am Jul 1, 2021 2:27am
What’s Behind The Massive Fluctuation In Natural Gas Prices?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...as-Prices.html

The Texas Freeze was one of those unprecedented events that have the potential to upend the way things are done, in this case, in power utilities. The crisis, which saw natural gas prices rise from two-figure to four-figure numbers, prompted an in-depth look at Texas’s grid and electricity market, and measures to ensure it never happened again. Now, gas prices are on the rise again, and many of the February bills have not been paid yet. Disgruntlement is building up across the swathe of states affected by the freezing cold spell in February. In California, people are being warned their bills are going to rise higher.
“I cannot for the life of me understand how we saw it go from $2 to $1,200 and back down to $2 in the span of the week; that’s not real,” Garry Mize, the Republican chairman of the utilities committee in Oklahoma’s House of Representatives, said recently, as quoted by the Wall Street Journal.
Mize was referring to the spike in natural gas prices during the Texas Freeze. He also said, “It’s hard on a political level because you’d like to believe that free markets work all the time.”
Indeed, free markets work for the purposes for which they were created. The fact that the way they work is not always in tune with what one group or another wants is an entirely different matter. Still, it’s understandable that there have been calls for greater federal oversight of states’ electricity systems to avoid a repeat of the crisis, which, in Oklahoma alone, caused electricity bills to swell by as much as $5 billion for the week it lasted, according to the WSJ.

Greater federal oversight is all well and good, but sometimes prices are all about fundamentals, for example, like right now. Bloomberg recently reported on a fresh spike in natural gas prices as large importers realize that not enough gas is being produced. Meanwhile, some parts of the United States are sweating under the first heatwaves of the summer.
In California and Texas, gas and electricity prices are spiking as demand soars along with temperatures. The states’ grid operators are calling on the locals to prepare to conserve energy. And with the supply of gas this tight, prices could go further up. Exports of LNG will contribute to that trend.
According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. natural gas prices will trend higher this year and next after last year’s record lows, driven by the rebound in domestic consumption that we are already seeing and by an increase in exports of liquefied natural gas. Given the supply and demand situation in the two key export markets—Europe and Asia—chances are domestic prices could go much higher.
Natural gas inventories in Europe are at the lowest in ten years, Bloomberg reported recently, adding that this caused the region’s price benchmark to surge to a 13-year high. Asian gas prices are also at multi-year highs.
“Supplies are already very tight, and that could get much worse if there is a cold winter,” James Whistler, the global head of energy derivatives at commodity and shipbroker Simpson Spence Young, said as quoted by Bloomberg. “We are seeing strong competition between Europe and Asia, and that is manifesting in the continuous rally.”
U.S. gas producers would be happy to help satisfy at least part of this surging demand, meaning the upward potential for domestic prices will become even stronger, at least during the summer.

The Texas Freeze caused a flurry of accusations to fly between gas providers and power utilities, eventually leading to the launch of an investigation into market manipulation allegations by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Whether or not FERC finds evidence of manipulation, the fundamental situation will not change. If the supply of natural gas is tight, bills will be higher everywhere demand for electricity rises with the heat.
In Texas, regulators and legislators ordered power plant operators to prepare their facilities for harsher winters to avoid a repeat of the February crisis. California is expanding its renewable power capacity. Yet the winter is still far off, and the sun still doesn’t shine during the night, leaving both Texas and California—and many other states—with the only alternative: gas-fired power generation.
Meanwhile, national gas inventories are on the decline. According to the EIA’s latest weekly data, net injections for the week to June 18 totaled 55 billion cu ft, which was lower than what analysts had expected, stabilizing the upward trend in prices. These, by the way, hit the highest in almost two and a half years at the start of this week, driven by the heat waves and the production situation.
Just two years ago, the U.S. was swimming in natural gas that oil drillers in the Permian pumped as a by-product of their main target, oil. Domestic demand was being projected to remain flat for the observable future before it began a steady decline. Now, demand is booming, and supply is insufficient. Blackouts are on the table again, too, all because of insufficient gas supply. Relief is unlikely to come from anywhere anytime soon, as shale drillers remain wary of ramping up production too soon.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,083
  • Jul 1, 2021 2:49am Jul 1, 2021 2:49am
Natural gas prices rally as global shortages abound

https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/6...ortages-abound

(Bloomberg) --Natural gas markets around the globe are rallying as the world’s importers have come to a stark realization: there isn’t enough supply to go around.
A long, frigid winter drained gas stockpiles from Louisiana to Germany, and utilities are struggling to build them back up. But unforeseen supply disruptions and a rebounding global economy are making it impossible to keep up. That’s setting up a desperate scenario as hot summer temperatures approach, and it’s bound to get even worse when demand peaks this winter.
Higher gas prices will make it more costly to keep the lights on in Madrid or cool apartments in Tokyo, after scorching heat waves in some regions are already making it more expensive to run air conditioners. The cleaner-burning fuel is the latest commodity to add to the global inflation scare as the price of everything from crude oil to corn and copper surge.
If a gas deficit does develop during the winter months, it could spur European utilities to burn more coal, which has already started happening, and cause China’s power producers to curtail supplies to industries and cause blackouts like it did last winter. Households are set to pay sky-high utility bills and the worst-case scenario -- albeit unlikely -- is they won’t have heating or electricity when freezing temperatures hit.
“Supplies are already very tight, and that could get much worse if there is a cold winter,” said James Whistler, the global head of energy derivatives at Simpson Spence Young, an international commodity and ship broker. “We are seeing strong competition between Europe and Asia, and that is manifesting in the continuous rally.”
European gas inventories are the lowest in more than a decade for this time of year, with the region’s benchmark surging to the highest in almost 13 years, while rates in the U.S. and Asia have jumped to the highest seasonal level in years.
The gas sector had long been segmented between geographical regions, but the ramp-up in new supply of liquefied natural gas and growing liquidity in spot trading over the past several years has helped transform it into a genuinely global market. That evolution comes at a price, as Europe and North Asia now compete for a finite supply of LNG, which results in bidding wars that catapult spot rates.
At the center of the action is China, which in a surprise move is set to overtake Japan as the world’s top LNG importer for the first time this year. China is stockpiling supplies of the super-chilled fuel in order to power its booming economy and help it shift away from dirtier fossil fuels.
“China’s LNG demand in the past years keeps outperforming even the most bullish analysts,” said Henning Gloystein, global director of energy and natural resources at consultants Eurasia Group.
The mad dash is putting Europe at a major disadvantage, as Asian end-users increase prices to attract supplies away from the Atlantic. Europe -- where spot prices have rallied by more than 65% this year -- is facing thin gas inventories amid lower flows from pipeline suppliers and near record carbon prices.
Europe’s end-users have been forced to depend more on Russian pipeline supplies. Yet Gazprom PJSC’s unwillingness to ship extra gas via Ukraine has been one of the key factors that has catapulted prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, the spot benchmark for Europe, to the highest level since 2008.
“We see TTF prices rising for the remainder of 2021 as Asian LNG demand is robust,” said Santosh Gupta, assistant manager at Drewry Maritime Financial Research. “I don’t see a catalyst in the short term that would bring down prices.”
Indeed, the situation is made worse by the energy demands caused by extreme weather -- from last winter’s bitter cold in Asia to the current heat waves in the Western U.S. and severe droughts across the globe that have curbed hydro output.
With fresh memories of record-high Asian spot LNG prices last winter, the world’s top importers in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have been busy buying shipments for delivery between November and February, well ahead of normal, according to traders surveyed by Bloomberg. China’s importers were scolded by the government for not being well prepared last winter and they don’t want to make the same mistake twice, traders said.
The Japanese government last month asked utilities to ensure stable fuel supplies this summer and winter amid forecasts for abnormally thin power reserves. Traders at Japan’s biggest importers said that they have been under more pressure to stock up on fuel and even restart retired gas-fired power plants.
There isn’t enough fresh LNG supply to meet this growing demand. The market had become accustomed to a steady stream of new mega-export projects, but the industry is currently in the midst of a lull period, where the next raft of new supply isn’t expected until the middle of the decade.
In the U.S., the so-called Henry Hub futures prices have more than doubled over the past year to the highest seasonal level since 2014. Inventories are 5.8% below normal for the time of year, the widest deficit since 2019 on a seasonal basis, signaling tighter supplies for next winter.
Winter Outlook
Shipping restraints could also add to winter woes. The odds of congestions at the Panama Canal are “very high,” which will force U.S. LNG cargoes en route to Asia to take longer passages around the Cape of Good Hope or the Suez Canal, limiting availability, according to Oystein Kalleklev, chief executive officer of shipowner Flex LNG in Oslo.
To be sure, there are a few factors that could help the global gas market avoid a crunch this winter.
An early start of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which connects Russia to Germany and has faced delays because of U.S. sanctions, could add much-needed supply to Europe and help the region avoid a crunch. Still, while pre-commissioning work is currently under way, the timing of first flow remains uncertain.
Likewise, a milder winter could reduce gas consumption and help utilities coast along with their lower inventory levels.
“Weather will have the final word on both price levels and volatility patterns,” said Gergely Molnar, an energy analyst at the International Energy Agency.
Meanwhile, traders may be forced to adapt to this volatile market as the supply deficit isn’t expected to disappear anytime soon.
“Supply will likely remain tight for the next two or three years as the industry makes up for the lack of new supply investments in 2020 and catches up with robust demand growth,” said Whistler.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,084
  • Jul 1, 2021 9:23am Jul 1, 2021 9:23am
Nice research. You are way more patient than me researching the "how" and "why" a particular asset goes up or down. Thank you for the information and keep up the good work.
  • #3,085
  • Jul 6, 2021 8:29am Jul 6, 2021 8:29am
As I said earlier, I don't trust pin bars. Pin bar players are hunted again. If you play pin bars, you gonna be hurt a lot!
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Actually, I don't trust any candle stick pattern. It doesn't work anymore.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,086
  • Jul 7, 2021 5:15am Jul 7, 2021 5:15am
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...-demand-749411
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,087
  • Jul 7, 2021 5:20am Jul 7, 2021 5:20am
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/natura...n-202107070627
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,088
  • Edited 7:14am Jul 7, 2021 7:02am | Edited 7:14am
Volatility Quality Stridsman with OMA

https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....74#p1295438474
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File Type: ex4 Volatility quality nrp - Stridsman oma.ex4   42 KB | 537 downloads


I like this indicator too. Their team has another volunteer coding genius Kvak now. Amazing people......
As Mladen said, there are decent tools to help catching trend following movements. For counter-trend trading or fading the momentum, the usages of indicators are heavily limited.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,089
  • Jul 7, 2021 5:00pm Jul 7, 2021 5:00pm
"NYMEX Henry Hub spot prices traded above $3.70/mmbtu last week. That is $2.00 more than the benchmark print one year ago"
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,090
  • Jul 8, 2021 1:51am Jul 8, 2021 1:51am
Quoting heispark
"NYMEX Henry Hub spot prices traded above $3.70/mmbtu last week. That is $2.00 more than the benchmark print one year ago" {image}

do you remember Joe DiNapoli?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #3,091
  • Jul 8, 2021 3:53am Jul 8, 2021 3:53am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} do you remember Joe DiNapoli?
Ah.... daily looks like a double repo sell pattern..... Anyway, I don't apply his methods anymore....
Nonetheless, I very much like his trading philosophy.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,092
  • Jul 8, 2021 4:20am Jul 8, 2021 4:20am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Ah.... daily looks like a double repo sell pattern..... Anyway, I don't apply his methods anymore.... Nonetheless, I very much like his trading philosophy.
If this double repo fails, it would easily reach $4........
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,093
  • Jul 9, 2021 5:15pm Jul 9, 2021 5:15pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} If this double repo fails, it would easily reach $4........
Double repo sell failure pattern will also make a bullish flag pattern here.......
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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...weekend-751401
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,094
  • Jul 9, 2021 5:56pm Jul 9, 2021 5:56pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Double repo sell failure pattern will also make a bullish flag pattern here....... {image}{image} https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...weekend-751401
By the way, as I said earlier I don't trust any patterns. The following is what Chris thought to be some kind of Head & Shoulder sell pattern early this year...... Of course, it failed.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natur...185843802.html
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,095
  • Jul 12, 2021 6:49am Jul 12, 2021 6:49am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Currently, it's narrowed to -0.106. Can summer nat gas be more expensive than winter nat gas? I don't think so at least under current conditions. I sold one more contract @ -0.101.
Took profit @ -0.150. It was easy trade as expected. I will move to Sep-Dec spread after some pull back. Sep-Dec is almost identical to Aug-Dec but risk is much lower. Trading immediate month in spread trading can be risker especially when supply issue is emerging like recent days.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,096
  • Jul 12, 2021 6:53am Jul 12, 2021 6:53am
"Most of the volume in the spreads is Commercial and most of the volume in the prompt outright months is spec. The Commercials are serious and they don't play games with the order book."
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https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...5#post-5417778
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,097
  • Jul 12, 2021 9:30am Jul 12, 2021 9:30am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Again today...... {image}
Oh, no... not again....
Forget about CQG. Rithmic is 10 times better!
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,098
  • Jul 15, 2021 8:13am Jul 15, 2021 8:13am
Natural Gas: Overvalued And Underused

https://seekingalpha.com/article/443...gas-overvalued

Seeking Alpha has good articles about Nat Gas. There are some limits to the number of articles available for free but I can access them from other PCs or mobile phone. Also, as I only read Nat Gas articles occasionally, that limit is acceptable to me.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,099
  • Jul 15, 2021 8:15am Jul 15, 2021 8:15am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Took profit @ -0.150. It was easy trade as expected. I will move to Sep-Dec spread after some pull back. Sep-Dec is almost identical to Aug-Dec but risk is much lower. Trading immediate month in spread trading can be risker especially when supply issue is emerging like recent days.
Currently, it's -0.170... I still take profits too early. I need more faith to my strategy and myself........
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #3,100
  • Edited 4:47am Jul 17, 2021 4:26am | Edited 4:47am
JPY is in longer term down trend but for short/mid term, it may recover according to WCU strategy. I'd like to buy JPY (shorting USDJPY) after some pull back. Soon, I will restart WCU trading with small fund. I will share it through live TE with full transparency as I did before. It will be fun.
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(Red is JPY)

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By the way, I am sharing my Tradingview WCU template just in case you're interested. Try the following template link: (You can use free version of Traingview. I myself use free version now.)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/U60YKnho/

Inserted Video


WCU is not my main strategy (actually, I am done with forex. My bread and butter is natural gas calendar spread trading) and I will share everything I know about WCU honestly and transparently. WCU is much better than Davit's pivot strategy. Trust me.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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