Attachments: Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

#801
Sep 1, 2020 2:59am Sep 1, 2020 2:59am

here2there
Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Trader | 5,597 Posts

Quoting Wilffy

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{quote} Hi there, please advice where i can get such information that you shared. COT.

Ignored

Try this: https://www.tradingster.com/cot

Learn from your mistakes and march on.

#802
Sep 2, 2020 11:51am Sep 2, 2020 11:51am

MoshiM
| Joined Dec 2016 | Status: Trader | 97 Posts

Quoting Indices

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{quote} Hi MoshiM, Thanks for sharing. Can you kindly explain the following and its significant? I am lost... Commercial_3YI Non-Commercial_3YI Non_Reportable_3YI Commercial 6MI Non_Commercial_6MI Non_Reportable_6MI Commercial Over OI WillCo 6M WillCo 3Y Movement Index Non-Commercial Long %

Ignored

They're partially explained in the ReadMe file but I'll explain here as well.

Proper explanations for why I included some of these are found in these 2 books [The Commitments of Traders Bible by Stephen Briese, Trade Stocks and Commodities With the Insiders by Larry William's]

The first 6 that you listed are simply a stochastic calculation using the net position of the selected group compared to a certain number of previous weeks.(Commercial_3YI would compare the selected week's data to the prior 3 years worth. Similarly if 6MI then 6 month's worth)

Commercial Over OI is Commercial NET divided by Open Interest.

WillCo (William's Commercial Index) calculations are also stochastic calculations but use Commercial Over OI rather than Commercial Net.

Movement Index shows you the difference between the current Commercial_3YI and what it was 6 weeks prior.

Non-Commercial Long % shows you what percentage of Non-Commercial positions are long.

#803
Sep 2, 2020 7:28pm Sep 2, 2020 7:28pm

Indices
| Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Trader | 7 Posts

Quoting MoshiM

Disliked

{quote} They're partially explained in the ReadMe file but I'll explain here as well. Proper explanations for why I included some of these are found in these 2 books [The Commitments of Traders Bible by Stephen Briese, Trade Stocks and Commodities With the Insiders by Larry William's] The first 6 that you listed are simply a stochastic calculation using the net position of the selected group compared to a certain number of previous weeks.(Commercial_3YI would compare the selected week's data to the prior 3 years worth. Similarly if 6MI then 6 month's...

Ignored

Thank you for your explanation, MoshiM.
Looks like i still have a lot of read up to do in order to fully appreciate COT.

#804
Oct 1, 2020 12:28pm Oct 1, 2020 12:28pm

PadiC
| Joined Jul 2020 | Status: Trader | 99 Posts

Hi MoshiM.. Im new to referring to cot and I normally searching for cot at the cftc site directly. I see that their release schedule is 25 sep 2020 per link below, but up till now, i dont think it isnt released yet. r u privy as to how often they release the report?

https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/C...dule/index.htm

#805
Oct 1, 2020 1:05pm Oct 1, 2020 1:05pm

MoshiM
| Joined Dec 2016 | Status: Trader | 97 Posts

Quoting PadiC

Disliked

Hi MoshiM.. Im new to referring to cot and I normally searching for cot at the cftc site directly. I see that their release schedule is 25 sep 2020 per link below, but up till now, i dont think it isnt released yet. r u privy as to how often they release the report? https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/C...dule/index.htm

Ignored

The reports are released when they say they will. As for the September 25th release, it has been released. It just hasn't shown up in the "Historical Viewtable" on the CFTC's website. Try here https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/C...ders/index.htm . There are 2 versions (comma delimited and another).

#806
Oct 1, 2020 1:18pm Oct 1, 2020 1:18pm

PadiC
| Joined Jul 2020 | Status: Trader | 99 Posts

Quoting MoshiM

Disliked

{quote} The reports are released when they say they will. As for the September 25th release, it has been released. It just hasn't shown up in the "Historical Viewtable" on the CFTC's website. Try here https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/C...ders/index.htm . There are 2 versions (comma delimited and another).

Ignored

thx for the reply. do u mind screenshot the specific part u referred to pls?
im hvg difficulty in finding it.
thanks beforehand

#807
Oct 1, 2020 2:36pm Oct 1, 2020 2:36pm

MoshiM
| Joined Dec 2016 | Status: Trader | 97 Posts

Quoting PadiC

Disliked

{quote} thx for the reply. do u mind screenshot the specific part u referred to pls? im hvg difficulty in finding it. thanks beforehand

Ignored

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

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Currencies are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

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Below the tables there are links to comma delimited versions of the data.

I would also encourage you to use the Excel files I created. They will update on their own unless you are on a MAC and haven't let them update in several weeks. In which case you'll need to download, rename and then open the necessary files.

#808
Oct 1, 2020 4:40pm Oct 1, 2020 4:40pm

PadiC
| Joined Jul 2020 | Status: Trader | 99 Posts

Quoting MoshiM

Disliked

{quote} {image}Currencies are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. {image}Below the tables there are links to comma delimited versions of the data. I would also encourage you to use the Excel files I created. They will update on their own unless you are on a MAC and haven't let them update in several weeks. In which case you'll need to download, rename and then open the necessary files.

Ignored

thank you very much MoshiM
Is that the 25 September 2020 released report? that can be found on: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm

thanks for letting me know about ur excel as well but im on mac.

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#809
Edited Oct 24, 2020 12:48pm Oct 23, 2020 2:50pm | Edited Oct 24, 2020 12:48pm

MoshiM
| Joined Dec 2016 | Status: Trader | 97 Posts

Quoting PadiC

Disliked

{quote} thank you very much MoshiM Is that the 25 September 2020 released report? that can be found on: https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm thanks for letting me know about ur excel as well but im on mac. {image}

Ignored

The issue with the files isn't that they can't be updated but that there would be some user interaction required as I don't have a MAC to test on. I've gone about changing how it would be done and hopefully the instructions will be clear enough for you to understand.

On another note, I have gone about automating price retrieval for most of contracts contained within the files. Same link as in my previous post.

#810
Oct 23, 2020 8:24pm Oct 23, 2020 8:24pm

Jeff59FX
| Joined Mar 2018 | Status: Trader | 201 Posts

Hi MoshiM

I have been away from the COT REPORTS and I like to know which is the BEST way in your opinion (and others) how you can figure out which way the markets are going? I always love your methods

Thank you,
Jeff

Happily Married to MY College Sweet Heart!

#811
Oct 29, 2020 4:30am Oct 29, 2020 4:30am

fxke62
| Joined Jul 2019 | Status: Trader | 53 Posts

I don' have enough experience with the COT reports eg. commodities, but regarding forex:

1. note that often parties have different positions (mainly talking about Asset Managers and Leveraged Money), so who's direction do you take?

2. the common wisdom is that "you should follow the smart money". have you studied the performance of the average hedge funds over the past five years?
might be worth some googling. There are very few that have outperformed the S&P even over a before (huge) fees basis. That's why most are experiencing an
outflow of funds and quite a few have closed based on their losses.

3. to check the common wisdom I have been going through COT report from the last 3 years. Yes Leveraged Money or Asset Managers were right sometimes.
But wrong also quite a few times.

Research before you follow :-)

#812
Oct 29, 2020 8:26pm Oct 29, 2020 8:26pm

fxke62
| Joined Jul 2019 | Status: Trader | 53 Posts

I didn't fully understand how the CFTC calculates the Total Long and Total Short, because it does not match
with the total of the individual long- and short positions.
So I send them a message. Same day reply with explanation. Great service - kudos!
CFTC explanation below:

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#813
Jan 17, 2021 7:45pm Jan 17, 2021 7:45pm

wolf1
| Joined Jun 2020 | Status: Trader | 1 Post

Hi,
can anyone please tell me where is this graph from? from which website or program?

Thank you

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...1&d=1577033941

#814
Jan 24, 2021 5:26am Jan 24, 2021 5:26am