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  • #2,761
  • Oct 4, 2020 7:42pm Oct 4, 2020 7:42pm
/NG vs. /QG (1/4 mini contract)

Due to high volatility and high margin, many people trade /QG instead of /NG....
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(First picture is /NG. Taken right before.)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,762
  • Oct 6, 2020 9:58am Oct 6, 2020 9:58am
http://pgjonline.com/news/2020/10-oc...-5-natural-gas

Morgan Stanley Sees Potential for $5 Natural Gas

HOUSTON (P&GJ) — A record decline in natural gas production and rebounding demand could create the tightest market in a decade and set the stage for Henry Hub prices up to $5/MMbtu with cold weather, according to a new Morgan Stanley forecast.
Winter storage draws could potentially exceed those during the 2013-14 polar vortex, Morgan Stanley predicted, increasing its 2021 Henry Hub forecast to $3.25/MMbtu from $3.05 while setting a weather-dependent upside price of $5.
Morgan Stanley cited production declines resulting from sharp reductions in E&P spending combined with recovering demand, led by a recovery in LNG exports.
Associated gas from oil production has been a key overhang for Henry Hub prices in recent years, but Morgan Stanley predicted associated gas production will fall around 3-4 Bcfd this year, with potential for further declines in 2021. The declines are not isolated to the oil basins, it said, noting that rig counts also have fallen in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins.
“Weak spot prices this summer, balance sheet stress and minimal access to external capital has left gas producers with production declines of their own, and limited ability to proactively increase capex in response to the upcoming market tightness,” the forecast said.
To address the impending supply-demand imbalance, Morgan Stanley sees the need for materially higher 2021 prices to incentivize much needed investment in additional supply and gas-to-coal switching. It left its long-term $2.75 forecast unchanged.
Global gas oversupply led to substantial cancellations of U.S. LNG exports over the past summer. After averaging around 6 Bcfd in September, however, Morgan Stanley expects LNG feedgas to stabilize around 9-10 Bcfd in the fourth quarter of 2020, with year-over-year demand growth of 5-6 Bcfd throughout winter 2020-21, assuming normal weather.
If the season turns out to be colder than normal, however, U.S. gas inventory levels could fall to their lowest level on record, it said, prompting a material price rally to $5/MMbtu or more and a mid-$4 average price range for all of 2021.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,763
  • Oct 6, 2020 3:07pm Oct 6, 2020 3:07pm
Sorry to say but Morgan Stanley has been wrong too many times to be trusted. In any case "potential" is void of meaning.
  • #2,764
  • Oct 6, 2020 7:50pm Oct 6, 2020 7:50pm
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In year 1994, I bought my first Macintosh, which was LC475. Since then, I became a life time Apple fanboy..... I love Apple so much!
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,765
  • Oct 6, 2020 9:32pm Oct 6, 2020 9:32pm
Quoting heispark
I will skip Nov-Dec spread and instead move to Dec-Jan spread. Current record inventory is scary. If we have another mild winter, the market should sure to collapse big. Current Nov-Dec spread is neither cheap nor expensive, and it's very volatile. Better avoid it. {image}{image}
Record storage level is still pain in the neck......

ANALYSIS: Southeast, Texas gas storage surpluses risk another cash-market rout at Henry Hub
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...t-at-henry-hub
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,766
  • Oct 7, 2020 8:51am Oct 7, 2020 8:51am
Autumn's came back again.... time flies.....

Yves Montand - Les Feuilles Mortes
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,767
  • Oct 7, 2020 2:54pm Oct 7, 2020 2:54pm
Quoting heispark
Autumn's came back again.... time flies..... Yves Montand - Les Feuilles Mortes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLlBOmDpn1s
Yves Montand était un bon chanteur d'origine italienne mais ses chansons sont toujours d'actualité.
Yves Montand는 이탈리아 출신의 좋은 가수 였지만 그의 노래는 오늘날에도 여전히 관련이 있습니다.

My French is quite good but I used google to translate into Korean
  • #2,768
  • Oct 7, 2020 7:49pm Oct 7, 2020 7:49pm
Stop Losses - Good, Bad or Both?
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,769
  • Oct 7, 2020 8:40pm Oct 7, 2020 8:40pm
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...nter-eia-says/

U.S. home heating bills seen mostly higher this winter, EIA says

Most U.S. consumers will spend more to heat their homes this winter (October through March) than last year as more folks stay home for coronavirus, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected in its Winter Fuels Outlook on Tuesday.
EIA said the combination of more people working and going to school from home, plus forecasts for a colder winter, will boost costs for households that heat primarily with natural gas, electricity and propane this year compared with last winter.
For homes that heat primarily with heating oil, however, EIA expects price declines for the fuel will offset the effects of higher consumption and lead to a decrease in expenditures.
EIA projected households will spend about 6% more using natural gas, 7% more using electricity, and between 12% (in the Midwest) and 18% (in the Northeast) more using propane for heat during the winter of 2020-2021 than last year.
Those homes using heating oil, meanwhile, will likely spend about 10% less this winter versus last year.
Even though natural gas costs are expected to rise this winter versus last year, EIA projected it will still cost much less to heat an average U.S. home with gas than any other fuel – $572 for gas versus $1,221 for heating oil, $1,209 for electricity and between $1,196 (Midwest) and $1,655 (Northeast) for propane.
There are roughly 129 million households in the United States. About half of those homes, 61 million, use natural gas as their primary heating fuel. Electricity is the nation’s second-biggest source of heat – used in 52 million homes – and is the primary fuel in the South.
Most homes using heating oil are located in the Northeast – around 4.3 million homes, while most homes burning propane are in the Midwest – almost 2.3 million.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Nick Zieminski)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,770
  • Oct 7, 2020 8:51pm Oct 7, 2020 8:51pm
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...d-power-demand

Coal, nuclear retirements in US Midwest might boost gas-fired power demand

Denver — As natural gas storage surpasses five-year maximum levels in the US Midwest, a swath of coal and nuclear power plant retirements look to boost gas' share of generation winter over winter, helping balance a towering inventory despite higher hub prices in the region.
About 70 MWh of coal-fired capacity has retired since last winter with another 173 MWh offline by the end of this upcoming winter in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator and Southwest Power Pool, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. This pales in comparison though to the 619 MWh of nuclear generated capacity lost this year. Overall, these losses should provide more opportunity for gas-fired generation in the region.
Last winter power burn exceeded expectations thanks to low cash prices. Chicago averaged just $1.90/MMBtu last winter, down from an average of $3.00/MMBtu the past five years. This incentivized greater coal-to-gas switching and boosted power burn in the Midwest to 3.8 Bcf/d. This winter, Platts Analytics expects stronger prices to weaken power burn by a sizable 595 MMcf/d from last winter in the region.
However, these winter-over-winter losses could be mitigated in part by the retirement at the Duane Arnold Energy Center in Iowa. Duane Arnold was Iowa's only nuclear power plant and ran from 1975 to August 2020. The plant was scheduled to retire at the end of October, but the plant could not restart after heavy El Derecho rains in early August, pushing the retirement earlier than expected.
The nuclear plant had a nameplate capacity of 619 MWh. US Energy Information Administration data, however, showed the plant averaged 445 MWh in the winter of 2019 and 2020 and hit as high as 456 MWh in January 2020. This lost generation could help boost power burn by 85 MMcf/d if gas fills in for all of the lost nuke output.
The region has also seen smaller coal retirements with 129 MWh lost with the JB Sims and TES Filer City Stations in Michigan during the first half of the year. The loss of another 173 MWh is expected with the closure of the Dallman coal-fired power plant in Illinois later this year. Last winter both ran below their nameplate capacity, with JB Sims averaging 22 MWh out of its 68MWh capacity, TES Filer City at 34 MWh of 61 MWH, and Dallman at 81 MWh of 173 MWh. While these plants present a combined 302 MWh of nameplate capacity, only 138 MW was utilized last winter. The lost coal-fired capacity could boost power burn by 26 MMcf/d.
Platts Analytics forecasts power burn to decline this year from last assuming normal temperatures and stronger prices. The EIA, however, estimates 22% of the Midwest primarily heat their home with electricity while 20% also use it as a secondary heating source. The loss of generation from coal and nuclear retirements this winter will therefore provide a substantial upward risk to Platts Analytics winter power burn forecast. The region also has a surplus of gas in storage to draw upon, with levels towering above the five-year maximum since August.
Cooler winter-over-winter temperatures would only further boost power demand, exacerbating the effects of these retirements. The National Weather Service forecasts Midwest temperatures to be slightly cooler than normal for winter 2020-21.
Although higher prices are likely to cut into gas-fired power demand this winter, coal and nuke retirements, along with cooler temps, should help to gas demand in the region. However, cooler-than-normal weather is not expected until at least November as the latest forecast shows Chicago will average 2 degrees above average for the month of October. This should place negative pressure on Chicago prices.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,771
  • Oct 8, 2020 8:56am Oct 8, 2020 8:56am
Price Action - EURUSD vs. Natural Gas Futures

EURUSD

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,772
  • Edited 9:11am Oct 8, 2020 8:57am | Edited 9:11am
Price Action - EURUSD vs. Natural Gas Futures

Natural Gas Futures (huge gap in the picture is roll-over)

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Which one do you think easier to trade especially for day traders?
When you day trade /NG, you need to watch monitor only for 4 hours/day - 2 hours before and after market open (9:30 am ET). And it's not very sensitive to headline news unlike Forex. The biggest news to Nat Gas is weekly storage report released on every Thursday. I love Nat Gas.....
You will be better off avoiding highly efficient markets, and Forex and Stock Indices are among highly efficient markets.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,773
  • Oct 8, 2020 2:46pm Oct 8, 2020 2:46pm
Quoting heispark
Price Action - EURUSD vs. Natural Gas Futures Natural Gas Futures (huge gap in the picture is roll-over) {image}{image}{image}{image}{image}{image} Which one do you think easier to trade especially for day traders? When you day trade /NG, you need to watch monitor only for 4 hours/day - 2 hours before and after market open (9:30 am ET). And it's not very sensitive to headline news unlike Forex. The biggest news to Nat Gas is weekly storage report released on every Thursday. I love Nat Gas..... You will be better off avoiding highly...
I love NG and despise EURUSD this is why I never trade it since it's manipulated by big US banks. I don't think that stock indices are highly efficient markets. For example the S&P 500 hit an all time high while firms are losing money due to the Corona virus. Efficiency dictates that this indice should go down but is not because firms borrow money at a very low interest rate to buy back their own stocks artificially increasing their values. With a price earning ratio above 28 it's obvious that the S&P 500 is overvalued since it should normally be around 15. This is another proof that this is not an efficient market. I trade the DOW using Renko brick size of 20 but I modified my chart to show brick size of 21 so I could show you the full chart for today.
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  • #2,774
  • Oct 8, 2020 7:37pm Oct 8, 2020 7:37pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} I love NG and despise EURUSD this is why I never trade it since it's manipulated by big US banks. I don't think that stock indices are highly efficient markets. For example the S&P 500 hit an all time high while firms are losing money due to the Corona virus. Efficiency dictates that this indice should go down but is not because firms borrow money at a very low interest rate to buy back their own stocks artificially increasing their values. With a price earning ratio above 28 it's obvious that the S&P 500 is overvalued since it should normally...
Perhaps we have different definition of 'efficiency' in the market. My definition is based on this: https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...3&d=1573301348
He's a senior member of Elitetrader.com and I strongly agree his opinion....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,775
  • Oct 8, 2020 8:31pm Oct 8, 2020 8:31pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Record storage level is still pain in the neck...... ANALYSIS: Southeast, Texas gas storage surpluses risk another cash-market rout at Henry Hub https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...t-at-henry-hub
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...-report-676953

Due to storage issues, the next five storage reports are likely to be eyed closely by traders as they compare the actual numbers to the EIA estimates.
If the actual EIA number comes in at low-to mid- 70, it would be far below the year-ago and five-year averages reported by the EIA. For the same week last year, the EIA recorded a 102 Bcf injection, while the average over the past five years is 86 Bcf.
With the U.S. stocks well above historical levels, a below average EIA report could provide some support for prices, but a high number could lead to a steep sell-off.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,776
  • Oct 8, 2020 8:43pm Oct 8, 2020 8:43pm
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,777
  • Oct 9, 2020 5:01pm Oct 9, 2020 5:01pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Perhaps we have different definition of 'efficiency' in the market. My definition is based on this: https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...3&d=1573301348 He's a senior member of Elitetrader.com and I strongly agree his opinion....
Actually he's right stating that a lot of equities no longer trade like a market anymore. In the first two sentences of the last paragraph are very significant since he states that the indices are just noise ... because the indexes aren't tracking the market at large. In a perfect world the indices would be tracking the value of their components but this is no longer the case due to speculation.

Congratulations for your country's education system. It's way better than the one of my country. The US has the best education system in the world the problem is that the "best education" is only available for those who can afford it.

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  • #2,778
  • Oct 9, 2020 5:04pm Oct 9, 2020 5:04pm
Quoting heispark
https://youtu.be/DhQ59Xs-lqg
If good weather and low demand are not the reasons why NG broke the $3 price today what was it?
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  • #2,779
  • Oct 9, 2020 9:22pm Oct 9, 2020 9:22pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} If good weather and low demand are not the reasons why NG broke the $3 price today what was it? {image}
In front month /NG futures, it's still under $3. Friday's price up was due to hurricane I think. Fxempire's Chris can explain it better: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...weekend-677205
I like his analysis.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,780
  • Oct 9, 2020 9:30pm Oct 9, 2020 9:30pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Congratulations for your country's education system. It's way better than the one of my country. The US has the best education system in the world the problem is that the "best education" is only available for those who can afford it. https://youtu.be/HnPQKQarzk4
I don't think S.Korea's education system is better than U.S. There are always smart people and dump people. U.S. gives great opportunities to smart people. Education to dump people is, to be honest, waste of time and money I believe. Still many Korean students go to U.S. colleges for better education. It's also true to us that rich people get better education and go to good college these days. Personally, I believe any Asian countries cannot beat U.S. in the long run. Anglo-Saxon's flexibility is just unbeatable. Japan failed and China will fail too.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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