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  • #2,741
  • Sep 21, 2020 7:11pm Sep 21, 2020 7:11pm
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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...m-treat-673734
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,742
  • Sep 21, 2020 7:38pm Sep 21, 2020 7:38pm
Quoting heispark
{image} https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...m-treat-673734

and some people are talking about green cross red ...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #2,743
  • Sep 21, 2020 8:28pm Sep 21, 2020 8:28pm
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...G-Exports.html

Natural Gas Prices Plunge On Souring Demand, LNG Exports

Natural gas prices plunged on Monday by more than ten percent as the outlook for demand and LNG exports worsened as multiple Hurricanes caused disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.

By 11:00 a.m. EDT, natural gas prices had fallen by 11.47% to $1.813 MMBtu.

Front-month natural gas futures (NG1) were at $1.829 MMBtu at 10:53 a.m. EDT.

Hurricane season in the Gulf has caused numerous disruptions to both natural gas demand and LNG exports, with Tropical Storm Beta the latest threat to the industry, with ships that would carry LNG avoiding the troublesome area for now, and likely the remainder of the week as Beta—like Sally—appears to be a slow-moving storm that will take most of the week to dissipate.

It is noteworthy that the November contract for natural gas is now trading at $2.684 MMBtu—a staggering $0.855 premium over the front-month contract.

The fall in front-month contract natural gas prices is—so far—the most significant one-day drop over the last 21 months.

Working natural gas in storage in the United States has increased from 3,079 Bcf, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to 3,614 Bcf for the week ending September 11. The five-year average for this time of year is just 3,193 Bcf.

While swelling natural gas stockpiles are a critical concern for the industry, demand for natural gas is even more critical. With the hurricanes ravaging the Gulf of Mexico, the short-term natural gas demand outlook has worsened even beyond the unfavorable outlook given the industry by analysts due to the industrial activity dropoff due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,744
  • Sep 21, 2020 8:33pm Sep 21, 2020 8:33pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} and some people are talking about green cross red ...
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,745
  • Sep 22, 2020 3:46am Sep 22, 2020 3:46am
Derivative Oscillator

Another good divergence indicator although divergence is a voodoo science I believe.........

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d...oscillator.asp
https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....29#p1295419229
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 derivative oscillator (mtf + alerts + arrows + divergence).ex4   83 KB | 485 downloads

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,746
  • Sep 22, 2020 6:17am Sep 22, 2020 6:17am
S&P 500 Energy Index (SPN)

Divergence with Nat Gas

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,747
  • Sep 22, 2020 3:47pm Sep 22, 2020 3:47pm
Quoting heispark
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...G-Exports.html Natural Gas Prices Plunge On Souring Demand, LNG Exports Natural gas prices plunged on Monday by more than ten percent as the outlook for demand and LNG exports worsened as multiple Hurricanes caused disruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico.
Actually the drop was today. I was amazed yesterday seeing WTI go down while NG went up. Normally they should be synchronized. On this chart you can clearly see the upside yesterday and the downside today.
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  • #2,748
  • Sep 22, 2020 6:49pm Sep 22, 2020 6:49pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Actually the drop was today. I was amazed yesterday seeing WTI go down while NG went up. Normally they should be synchronized. On this chart you can clearly see the upside yesterday and the downside today. {image}
I think their correlation is not really strong. Usually NG is a by-product of oil drilling. Oil drillers used to flare gas when pumping out oil to prevent explosion but now they collect gas to make money or keep gov regulation. If oil price is high, the drillers would pump out more oil, and it could flood nat gas in the market as well, which can cause nat gas price drops. They often move in opposite direction due to this at least for temporarily.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,749
  • Sep 22, 2020 6:51pm Sep 22, 2020 6:51pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Just like it happened to WTI Oil months ago, Nat Gas is sitting on huge inventory and people are dumping October contract. Even so, its spread gap is historically unusual as you can see the pictures below.... Only a few days remaining before expiration and I don't think its gap will be narrowing much. This is the time when spread traders lose money..... {image}{image}
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...r-soars-673702

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Spreads Paint Different Outlooks as Oct Plunges, December Soars

Natural gas is an extremely volatile futures market. I shouldn’t have to tell you this because I’m sure you see it every day. While most small speculators choose to trade the most populated futures contract in order to lessen the blow of the extreme volatility, most professionals trade spreads.
Those familiar with grain futures know there is an old crop and a new crop. Shrewd traders make a living off the spread between the two crops. In fact, there is a lot of historical data available on this type of relationship between the two crops. Some may argue that “corn is corn”, but just watch the price action between old and new crop corn and you’ll see they are often times driven by different fundamentals. This creates a price spread. It’s not about picking a winner, it’s about predicting the direction of the spread.
The same goes for natural gas. Currently, the October futures contract has the most daily trading volume, but the November futures contract has the most open interest. December natural gas also has large open interest, but January 2021 natural gas has even more open contracts. This is because professionals are trading spreads.
This spread relationship was most evident on Monday when October futures fell sharply, while November and December futures contract prices jumped. The marked difference in the direction of prices was because of the different fundamentals facing the contracts.

Don’t Be Fooled by the Headlines
Some analysts who don’t look at the spreads seem to think that the November and December futures contracts rose because of the new tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, but if you took the time to understand natural gas fundamentals and the impact of a hurricane, you would know that this is not the case. If you’re going to trade “cause and effect” then make sure you have the right cause.
October natural gas futures plunged on Monday because of lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) volumes. With the tropical storm threatening an area that produces and ships LNG, a shut down in production is bearish for prices.
Meanwhile, November and December natural gas futures rose sharply because these buyers realize that the LNG production shutdown is a short-term event and that once the tropical storm passes, LNG demand will pick up again. It’s actually been improving since early August.

Conclusion
When trading natural gas, make sure you can reach the same conclusion as the analyst you are reading, using the same tools. Analysts can be wrong especially when they choose to take the easy route. When trading natural gas, make sure you watch the spreads. They’ll tell you more about a market than just reading a weather report and slapping down shoddy analysis.
In my opinion, October natural gas plunged on Monday and closed below the $2.000 level because of poor demand due to the pandemic, cooler temperatures, tropical storm related production shutdowns and worries about storage containment.
Meanwhile, the November and December futures contracts rose sharply because the market expects demand conditions will improve later in the fall.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,750
  • Sep 23, 2020 4:33pm Sep 23, 2020 4:33pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} When I see gold recently, WCU still has some value out there.... If I had lowed leverage with bigger account, I am sure I would have survived that gold trade again. Although I have decided not to use WCU at this time, WCU is still my on going project. {image}
I will revisit WCU someday.... worth revisiting...
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(blue line is gold)

For details about WCU: https://www.forexfactory.com/search?searchid=28472727
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,751
  • Sep 23, 2020 4:55pm Sep 23, 2020 4:55pm
Quoting heispark
Some people are skeptical to order flow study.... Anyway, it's still often be true that big limit orders are there to be filled. About 120 limit orders at 2.540 were there to be filled. 318 limit orders at 2.400 draws attention too. It also can be a spoofing. Spoofing is illegal these days but it's still found. This information may or may not be useful to your game plan.... {image}{image}
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...oofing-penalty

JPMorgan Is Set to Pay $1 Billion in Record Spoofing Penalty

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is poised to pay close to $1 billion to resolve market manipulation investigations by U.S. authorities into its trading of metals futures and Treasury securities, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.
The potential record for a settlement involving alleged spoofing could be announced as soon as this week, said the people who asked not to be named because the details haven’t yet been finalized. The accord would end probes by the Justice Department, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission into whether traders on JPMorgan’s precious metals and treasuries desks rigged markets, two of the people said.
A penalty approaching $1 billion would far exceed previous spoofing-related fines. It would also be on par with sanctions in many prior manipulation cases, including some brought several years ago against banks for allegedly rigging benchmark interest rates and foreign exchange markets.
Spoofing typically involves flooding derivatives markets with orders that traders don’t intend to execute to trick others into moving prices in a desired direction. The practice has become a focus for prosecutors and regulators in recent years after lawmakers specifically prohibited it in 2010. While submitting and then canceling orders isn’t illegal, it is unlawful as part of a strategy intended to dupe other traders.
It couldn’t be determined whether New York-based JPMorgan will face additional Justice Department penalties in court. Previous spoofing cases have been resolved without banks or trading firms pleading guilty to criminal charges. However, when prosecutors filed cases last year against individual JPMorgan traders they painted a grave picture of its precious metals desk, saying it operated as an illicit enterprise within the bank for almost a decade.
The government’s settlement with JPMorgan is not expected to result in any restrictions on its business practices, said one person familiar with the negotiations between authorities and the bank. It is anticipated that JPMorgan will admit to wrongdoing.
Spokespeople for the Justice Department, CFTC, SEC and JPMorgan all declined to comment.
In 2015, JPMorgan was among firms accused of manipulating currencies. It pleaded guilty to an antitrust charge and paid a $550 million fine to the Justice Department. The bank also paid penalties to U.S. regulators.
The pending spoofing case against JPMorgan follows criminal charges filed last year against several of its employees, including former head of the precious metals desk, Michael Nowak. In that case, the Justice Department used racketeering laws more commonly used in mafia and drug gang prosecutions, alleging the precious metals desk effectively became a criminal enterprise for eight years.
Nowak and three others accused in the case pleaded not guilty and are seeking to have the charges dismissed. Two other former traders have pleaded guilty to conspiracy claims and are cooperating.
Shortly after Nowak was charged, JPMorgan learned it was the focus of a separate but related criminal investigation into the bank’s trading of Treasury securities and futures, according to another person familiar with the matter. JPMorgan, which disclosed that investigation earlier this year, said it’s cooperating with authorities.
Cracking down on spoofing has been a priority for prosecutors and the regulators since Congress outlawed it through the Dodd-Frank Act. Authorities are concerned that the practice has proliferated in the era of electronic trading, with market participants using computer algorithms to submit a high number of bogus orders. A court ruling last year paved the way for prosecutors to scrutinize trading going back a decade.
More than two dozen individuals and firms have been sanctioned by the Justice Department or the CFTC, including day traders operating out of their bedrooms, sophisticated high-frequency trading shops and big banks such as Bank of America Corp. and Deutsche Bank AG.
Bank of Nova Scotia last month agreed to pay $127.4 million to settle U.S. allegations that the company engaged in spoofing of gold and silver futures contracts, and made false statements to the government. The bank admitted to wrongdoing.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,752
  • Sep 23, 2020 6:45pm Sep 23, 2020 6:45pm
Quoting heispark
{image} https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...m-treat-673734
15% up in a single day!
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,753
  • Sep 24, 2020 8:15am Sep 24, 2020 8:15am
Huge pending sell orders are there waiting to be filled. I think it's likely to be filled sooner or later. I don't know how people can trade with only 10 levels of market depth.... Rithmic is way better than CQG. It's like having a limited range of radar in the fighter jet.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,754
  • Sep 24, 2020 3:39pm Sep 24, 2020 3:39pm
Quoting heispark
Huge pending sell orders are there waiting to be filled. I think it's likely to be filled sooner or later. I don't know how people can trade with only 10 levels of market depth.... Rithmic is way better than CQG. It's like having a limited range of radar in the fighter jet. {image}
If you trade futures it might be worth it to see the order book but it's totally useless for most day traders since they trade their own signals.
  • #2,755
  • Sep 24, 2020 8:00pm Sep 24, 2020 8:00pm
I will skip Nov-Dec spread and instead move to Dec-Jan spread. Current record inventory is scary. If we have another mild winter, the market should sure to collapse big. Current Nov-Dec spread is neither cheap nor expensive, and it's very volatile. Better avoid it.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,756
  • Edited 8:09am Sep 25, 2020 7:58am | Edited 8:09am
Quoting heispark
EUR is weekly and monthly overbought. I'd wait a month or two before selling EUR when people no longer pay much attention to strong EUR.... It worked so far. {image}
EUR is falling.... Magical WCU.....
Try to do some brainstorming to implement this edge to your strategy. The biggest hurdle is negative RR.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,757
  • Sep 25, 2020 8:02am Sep 25, 2020 8:02am
Dark blue is USDWCU. USD has still much room to go up.....
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By the way, you can make this chart using free version of Tradingview. Now my license is demoted from Premium to Free. Free version is very limited in features but I still can draw WCU chart at least.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,758
  • Edited 11:20pm Sep 25, 2020 8:02pm | Edited 11:20pm
Nat gas futures trading margins are soaring! About 5 months ago, front month/back month spread trading margin was $650-850. Now they charge $2150....
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(Intra spread)

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(Dec-Jan spread)

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(Outright trading)

My broker's day trading margin is still acceptable but it was used to be under $500.... When you want to have an overnight position, you need at least $3000 per contract.
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Currently I have two contracts of Dec-Jan spread, and my broker respects SPAN margin properly:
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,759
  • Sep 25, 2020 11:47pm Sep 25, 2020 11:47pm
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...t-To-Soar.html

Why Natural Gas Prices Are Set To Soar

The highly volatile U.S. natural gas benchmark prices are set to trend higher in the coming months amid lower domestic production, higher demand in the winter, and recovering global gas prices in Europe and Asia—America’s key export destinations for liquefied natural gas (LNG). The coming winter season and the end of the hurricane season that has disrupted LNG operations and exports along the U.S. Gulf Coast, coupled with recovering gas demand for industrial activities in Asia and Europe, are likely to send natural gas prices to above $3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the winter months, the natural gas futures curve and EIA estimates show.
This summer, Henry Hub benchmark prices have been extremely volatile, with domestic demand and storage numbers serving as key drivers in the absence of major incentives for LNG exports amid depressed demand and gas prices elsewhere due to the pandemic that hit industrial activities.
The coming of the winter heating season, however, is about to change the fundamentals. Demand is expected to rise with the fall in temperatures in the northern hemisphere, supporting U.S. and global natural gas prices. Higher prices at the key European and Asian hubs will make LNG exports to those destinations viable and profitable again.
This week’s rollercoaster ride of U.S. natural gas prices was indicative of a demand/supply picture in a so-called ‘shoulder season’ when power demand for air conditioning begins to wane, but demand for heating is not there yet. So prices reacted to the immediate drivers—storage, feed supply for LNG, and storm-induced shut-ins.
After surging more than 15 percent to over $2/MMBtu on Wednesday, U.S. front-month natural gas futures jumped by another 5 percent by mid-day on Thursday, after the EIA reported a smaller-than-expected natural gas injection into storage.
This week, natural gas prices have seen some extreme volatility, from a 10-percent plunge on Monday to a 15-percent surge on Wednesday, also due to the rollover of the October futures contract expiring on September 28, with traders rolling out of the October contract to the November contract of higher prices. While the October contract settled at $2.227/MMBtu on Thursday, the November contract settled at $2.856/MMBtu, while the futures December through March are all trading at above $3.20/MMBtu, with the January futures at $3.44/MMBtu, data from CME Group shows.
Prices for the coming months above $3 are not surprising as winter is the peak demand season for gas in the U.S., Europe, and northern Asia.
While demand is expected to be high, U.S. natural gas production is now much lower than last year due to the low production in the Permian, where low crude oil prices are reducing associated natural gas output from oil-directed rigs, the EIA said in its September Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
In addition, U.S. LNG suppliers will now have more incentive to export, with spot LNG prices Asia jumping to multi-month highs on increased demand and lower supply amid maintenance in Australia and shut-in terminals due to storms and hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf Coast. There may not be any cancelations of U.S. LNG cargoes for November, trade sources told Reuters, compared to peak cancelations of up to 45 cargoes in July.
Spot natural gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub are also at multi-month highs at over $3/MMBtu, compared to a low of below $1/MMBtu in May, opening the window for profitable U.S. LNG exports to the region again.
Having plunged by more than 50 percent between January and July, U.S. LNG exports are set to pick up the pace, and the increase already started in August.
As per EIA estimates, U.S. LNG exports averaged 3.7 Bcf/d in August, up by 19 percent from July amid rising spot and forward natural gas prices in Europe and Asia.
“Higher global forward prices indicate improving netbacks for buyers of U.S. LNG in European and Asian markets for the upcoming fall and winter seasons amid expectations of natural gas demand recovery and potential LNG supply reduction because of maintenance at the Gorgon LNG plant in Australia,” the EIA said, expecting U.S. LNG exports to return to pre-COVID levels by November 2020 and to average more than 9 Bcf/d from December 2020 through February 2021.
The EIA expects that lower U.S. gas production, coupled with rising domestic demand and demand for LNG exports in the winter, will send Henry Hub spot prices jumping to a monthly average of $3.40/MMBtu in January 2021. Monthly average spot prices are set to remain above $3.00/MMBtu for all of next year, averaging $3.19/MMBtu in 2021, up from a forecast average of $2.16/MMBtu in 2020.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,760
  • Oct 4, 2020 7:20pm Oct 4, 2020 7:20pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=xuVirdpv

A 32-Year-Old Trader Is Driving 21,000 Amateur Stock Investors
EToro has gained a devoted following in Europe and is now looking to the U.S.

Jay Smith isn’t a professional money manager. He’s just a 32-year-old living in southern England who spends his days playing the stock market.
But Smith, better known online as Jaynemesis, drives the investment decisions of more than 21,000 people with $40 million in assets who copy his trades on a digital platform called eToro. When he loads up on shares of FedEx, so do they, and when he shorts the Nasdaq index, they do that, too.
All of this is taking place on EToro, which calls its service copytrading. While the feature has played a key role in attracting more than 15 million users to the Israeli-British company — which is around the same level as online trading powerhouse Robinhood — the practice has yet to take root in the U.S. That might be about to change.
EToro plans to expand into the U.S. equities brokerage game in early 2021 and challenge Robinhood for the hearts and wallets of rookie investors who’ve embraced stockpicking big time this year. It’s hook: providing a “social trading” network that lets millions of customers around the world share their market exploits and opinions, and replicate the bets of the best performers on the system. Think Facebook meets eTrade.
The company’s biggest difference with rivals is this notion of copytrading. With the tap of a button, a customer can automatically duplicate the trades of dozens of other customers that eToro has designated Popular Investors. They perform like de facto money managers. Smith regularly communicates on the ups and downs of the market with his followers. When stocks skidded in early September he reassured them: “Perhaps you copied yesterday or today and you’re sitting down 4% already and you’re hovering over the uncopy button,” he wrote. “STOP – DON’T PANIC. You don’t need everyday to be in the green.”
Cryptocurrency Derivatives? You Bet. eToro Trader Jay Smith Has 295% Return
Jay SmithPhotographer: Luke MacGregor/Bloomberg
EToro pays Popular Investors up to 2.5% of the assets that follow them. Smith, as the No. 1 copytrader on the site, is pocketing $1 million. With his portfolio up 62% in 2020, he’s been attracting droves of recruits. “Hi Jaynemesis, newbie copier here!” one recently posted on his social media feed on eToro’s site. “I have no real idea on stocks but it seems like you do.”
Consumer-protection advocates decry how eToro and its ilk are turning the market into something that looks like a game. And while retail investors have picked some of the biggest winners during this year's rally in stocks, study after study has shown that beating the market with an actively managed portfolio is almost impossible over the long term.
There’s also been controversy. In June, a 20-year-old Robinhood customer killed himself after believing he’d lost about $730,000 on options trades, a tragedy that raised questions from lawmakers about the wisdom of letting inexperienced investors use tools normally deployed by professionals. A spokesman for Robinhood said the company is constantly working to improve its products and communications with customers.
As for eToro, it has long used a derivative called a contract-for-difference to let retail traders easily apply leverage and execute short positions on securities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. In 2019, the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority imposed new restrictions on the sale of these instruments, including guaranteeing customers’ losses don’t exceed the funds in their accounts. The U.S. prohibits contracts-for-difference.
In making it easier than ever to copy amateurs, sell short, and use borrowed money — eToro’s limit for stocks is 5 to 1 — the platforms are magnifying risk and fueling speculation, says Rainer Lenz, the former chairman of Finance Watch, a Brussels-based organization.
“You should not be selling these products and tactics to retail investors,” says Lenz, a professor of finance at Germany’s Bielefeld University of Applied Sciences. “It just promotes gambling.”
Yoni Assia, the 39-year-old co-founder of Tel-Aviv-based eToro, counters that the site isn’t rife with reckless trading behavior and the company urges its customers to exercise caution in the markets. It's just a new model.

“Traditional financial institutions don’t really offer a relevant experience for our generation,” said Yoni Assia, the 39-year-old co-founder and chief executive officer of eToro. “We expect everything to be in real time, to be mobile, and to be social. That’s what differentiates our platform.”
In any event, he may have a tough time bringing its CopyTrading product into the U.S., at least in its current form. While there’s no law barring the practice, securities lawyers say firms may face liability if traders on their books aren’t registered investment advisers. Sharing opinions about stocks on eToro’s social media feed and influencing how customers invest could constitute recommendations as defined by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, said Adam Gana, a securities attorney with Gana Weinstein in Chicago.
EToro, which already provides copytrading for cryptocurrencies in the U.S., says it’s planning to introduce the same offering for equities after it irons out the details. Ads promoting the practice starring comic actor Alec Baldwin rapping about stocks and cryptocurrencies are already live on YouTube in other markets. Chances are the move will open a new legal frontier in retail investing.
“This is going to be scrutinized by regulators,” said Amber Allen, general counsel for Fairview Investment Services, a North Carolina firm that advises and manages legal compliance matters for investment companies. “At the moment, there’s not much in this space to address this model.”
For young consumers hungry for new ways to play the market, eToro may be the next step in the evolution of personal investing. It has ambitions to be more than brokerage and is preparing to issue a debit card just like Robinhood does. And eToro’s customers can copy more than other traders — the firm produces its own version of mutual funds called CopyPortfolios. They assemble securities under a theme — its InTheGame offering, for instance, comprises stocks of companies connected to the gaming industry. Another offering mimics the trades of legendary investor Warren Buffett.
“EToro could potentially carve out a niche but it would be going after the same young clients as Robinhood,” said Michael Wong, an analyst with Morningstar who covers the brokerage industry. “Then again, many people, including me, didn’t believe Robinhood would make a dent, so maybe eToro’s social networking will make a difference in a changing market.”
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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