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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #501
  • Sep 12, 2020 5:32am Sep 12, 2020 5:32am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Hello, No, its totally different from it, its purely technical
thanks for the explanation. Do you think you are comfortable sharing how you do it? Im amazed by its accuracy. Also i want to thank you for the formula u gave me before i was able to recreate the chart to look the same as yours.
  • #502
  • Sep 12, 2020 5:52am Sep 12, 2020 5:52am
Quoting Draxander
{quote} thanks for the explanation. Do you think you are comfortable sharing how you do it? Im amazed by its accuracy. Also i want to thank you for the formula u gave me before i was able to recreate the chart to look the same as yours.
You are welcome

For now i'll keep it private, and see if i can make a MT4 indi out of it

I'm glad it works for you now
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #503
  • Sep 14, 2020 7:27am Sep 14, 2020 7:27am
Soybean bulls too confident ?

Hitting the 90% bulls, its time for them to go home

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #504
  • Sep 14, 2020 1:44pm Sep 14, 2020 1:44pm
Crude oil still short ?

Producers are still short hedged so far, they are retreating their short as price falls.

The setup i'll be waiting is the following : As prices fall, producers will cool off all their shorts and start going net longs (consumers will take the lead)

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For now shorts until producers are net longs
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #505
  • Sep 26, 2020 4:47am Sep 26, 2020 4:47am
S&P : what's happening?

Starting off the week end with some S&P quick analysis

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2 charts here : First one with the dealers, second one with the assets managers
As you can see the dealers are increasing their net short bet (its the smart money), while the dumb money is going more long after this weekly drop. Dumb money trying to buy the dip, while smart money is selling more as it drops.
The position is not that strong, its possible to have rises, but i wouldn't recommend to buy this market ahead of the US election

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Vix short dealers is saying they are not seeing a rise in the market, they are not selling the VIX, which is a bad thing for the market overall

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Short side of the assets managers is saying Dumb money is selling the VIX, again dumb money could end up with a bag full of dirts
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #506
  • Sep 26, 2020 6:44am Sep 26, 2020 6:44am
Corn selling started ?

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Producers are increasing their net short side, its not that extreme, but its going stronge weeks after weeks

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This chart represent long/short from the money managers. I made it on a scale 100/-100%. You can see its going up quickly. Dumb money is buying too much...until it dropd hard

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Short side of the money managers, they are totally gone from the short side. They must be only looking up, which is as dumb as them
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #507
  • Sep 26, 2020 8:43am Sep 26, 2020 8:43am
Soybean to be sold off ?

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Producers are increasing their net short, in a strong way, such a corn

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Almost 100% here, dumb money is going all in. Not for me

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Short side of the money managers, such a Corn market, they don't see any fall, but once it starts they'll have to do the same and it will be furious
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #508
  • Sep 26, 2020 9:02am Sep 26, 2020 9:02am
Boring Wheat

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Producers are doing the same as Corn and Soybean, increasing their net short

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Long/short traders say there is nothing to see here

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Short side of the money managers is as well saying there is nothing to see.

I won't invest in it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #509
  • Sep 26, 2020 9:39am Sep 26, 2020 9:39am
Sugar looking to be topish

I'm throwing below a few chart. All charts speak for themselves
Producers are going very short, while money managers very long top

I'll be looking to start shorting Sugar next week

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #510
  • Sep 26, 2020 11:44am Sep 26, 2020 11:44am
Nice thread mate. Do you have experience with using contango and backwardation in combination with COT data?
"Men Who Can Both Be Right & Sit Tight Are Uncommon" ~ Jesse Livermore
  • #511
  • Sep 26, 2020 12:07pm Sep 26, 2020 12:07pm
Quoting michisuperfr
Nice thread mate. Do you have experience with using contango and backwardation in combination with COT data?
Hello

Thank you

Honestly no, i'm either trading long dated cfd from my broker or invest in etf

Do you?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #512
  • Sep 26, 2020 10:50pm Sep 26, 2020 10:50pm
Quoting kuroro001
Boring Wheat {image}Producers are doing the same as Corn and Soybean, increasing their net short {image}Long/short traders say there is nothing to see here {image}Short side of the money managers is as well saying there is nothing to see. I won't invest in it
Hello Kuroro,

I'm here to bother you again lol. May I ask what is the definition of Long/Short traders?
  • #513
  • Sep 27, 2020 4:05am Sep 27, 2020 4:05am
Quoting Draxander
{quote} Hello Kuroro, I'm here to bother you again lol. May I ask what is the definition of Long/Short traders?
Its actually a 100/-100% ratio (yearly percentile) of the money managers (hedge funds). I may rename it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #514
  • Sep 27, 2020 5:37am Sep 27, 2020 5:37am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Its actually a 100/-100% ratio (yearly percentile) of the money managers (hedge funds). I may rename it
Im sorry but im too beginner to understand your formula. Can you explain it in a simpler manner?
  • #515
  • Sep 27, 2020 7:29am Sep 27, 2020 7:29am
Quoting Draxander
{quote} Im sorry but im too beginner to understand your formula. Can you explain it in a simpler manner?
To learn how about it :
https://www.dummies.com/education/ma...in-statistics/

Excel got a "Centile" function

Explanation : It compares the current value with the past ones (past 52 values) and "rank" it on a scale from -100/+100 to see how high/low it is compared to the previous ones
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #516
  • Sep 27, 2020 7:31am Sep 27, 2020 7:31am
Copper bulls delusional ?


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Producers increasing their short, most in 15 years roughly, while Hedge funds are buying all they can

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Here is a view of the short side of money managers, they went home, don't follow them
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #517
  • Sep 27, 2020 7:36am Sep 27, 2020 7:36am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} To learn how about it : https://www.dummies.com/education/ma...in-statistics/ Excel got a "Centile" function Explanation : It compares the current value with the past ones (past 52 values) and "rank" it on a scale from -100/+100 to see how high/low it is compared to the previous ones
do i use the values from money manager net and apply the ratio formula?
  • #518
  • Sep 27, 2020 8:22am Sep 27, 2020 8:22am
Quoting Draxander
{quote} do i use the values from money manager net and apply the ratio formula?
Yes if you want to see the money manager ratio
But you can do with the producers/dealers, or the assets managers and see how it works

Plenty of options when you analyse the COT report
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #519
  • Oct 3, 2020 3:13pm Oct 3, 2020 3:13pm
It seems that the sugar rose at the end of the week, I think now would be a good time to sell. The coffee has already gone down as you indicated, now how do you see if it rises?
Confucius: the man who broke the mountain was the same man who started ...
  • #520
  • Oct 4, 2020 5:59am Oct 4, 2020 5:59am
Quoting afevir
It seems that the sugar rose at the end of the week, I think now would be a good time to sell. The coffee has already gone down as you indicated, now how do you see if it rises?
Its fun you are talking about sugar & coffee, as this week end i was looking at the spread strategy between these two commodities

But first about coffee :
Money managers, the short side have started to increase shorts at the bottom. Shorts are still very very low....but an increase here and now is never a good sign.
What i look at, are the swap dealers. They were very short, and retreated most of their positions after this drop.
Overall, trend is down, market participants are not looking at a significant rise.....but they are getting prepared. I wouldn't go long for a big swing up, but a weekly bounce can occur for sure.
For now i'm flat, i'd be looking for a deeper move to buy it for mid term again

Secondly, sugar :
Producers are very short hedged, money managers are very long. Plan is to short rallies still. I was looking for short last week, i didn't see any opportunities. Maybe next week

Now for the spread strategy
Short sugar, long coffee strategy could develop in the next weeks....lets watch it

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COT: The precious data ignored
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