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  • #2,601
  • Aug 3, 2020 9:04am Aug 3, 2020 9:04am
Quoting heispark
Nat Gas futures spread between October and November contracts looks overly stretched in historical perspective giving us a spread trading opportunity. Plotted in free version of SpreadCharts: {image}{image}
The Sep-Oct spread is finally getting narrower. In contango market, spread usually becomes narrower when price goes up. Not always true though.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,602
  • Aug 3, 2020 9:26am Aug 3, 2020 9:26am
Look at this huge liquidity of Sep-Oct spread DOM. Over a thousand contract in each tick level! Compare this with Sep DOM.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,603
  • Edited 6:05pm Aug 3, 2020 5:37pm | Edited 6:05pm
Impressive..... Nearly 20% up!
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Inserted Video
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,604
  • Aug 3, 2020 6:53pm Aug 3, 2020 6:53pm
Why Natural Gas Prices Just Exploded

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...-Exploded.html

The weather is going to be hot after all in the short term, forecasts now predict. That prediction sent natural gas prices soaring on Monday by nearly 20 percent as traders hold out hope for anything that will contribute to a reduction in nat gas stockpiles.
Natural gas prices have been trading under $2.50 since December on weak demand and oversupply.
Other bullish factors on Monday highlight the increased LNG/feedgas export figures provided over the weekend, with Genscape estimating a 740 MMcf/d increase on Saturday.
Natural gas prices were trending lower at the end of last week, as Hurricane ISAAIS was expected to bring cooler weather to most of the Gulf of Mexico.
Gas still has an oversupply problem, of course, and traders are still hoping that natural gas inventories will draw down soon—the call for warmer weather is part of that wishful thinking, sending natural gas prices up at least for now.
But this shorter-term warmer weather doesn’t mean a major heatwave that would send the demand for natural gas soaring.
Other bullish signals for nat gas include the cancelation of the Atlantic Coast nat gas pipeline, but Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has snapped up that nat gas asset and more, despite some analyst’s call for nat gas to go the way of coal, as the bridge fuel just isn’t clean enough for the renewable crowd to buy into.
Natural gas plunged to a 25-year low in June, as demand for nat gas plunged on the milder temperatures, and the world remained awash with the fuel.
At 1:52 pm EDT, natural gas prices had risen 17.68% to $2.113, the first time it has been above $2 since May—and that was just for a day or two. Nat gas prices have not sat comfortably above $2 since December.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,605
  • Aug 4, 2020 12:59pm Aug 4, 2020 12:59pm
Quoting heispark
Why Natural Gas Prices Just Exploded https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-...-Exploded.html The weather is going to be hot after all in the short term, forecasts now predict. That prediction sent natural gas prices soaring on Monday by nearly 20 percent as traders hold out hope for anything that will contribute to a reduction in nat gas stockpiles. Natural gas prices have been trading under $2.50 since December on weak demand and oversupply. Other bullish factors on Monday highlight the increased LNG/feedgas...
With an increase of $0.33 or 17% this month (2 days only) I couldn't be more happy. While it's nice day trading NG I would never accumulate it
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  • #2,606
  • Aug 5, 2020 7:10pm Aug 5, 2020 7:10pm
Natural Gas Prices Reach “Turning Point” – BofA Analysts

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...omentum-665131

Bank of America said prices are now at a “turning point,” with summer heat in the U.S. slowing natural gas storage gains and “the balance tightening rapidly heading into winter as demand recovers to full capacity and U.S. natural gas production remains flat.
BofA analysts including Peter Helles see European and Asian demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), depressed for months by the shocks of the pandemic, recovering this year and ramping up in 2021.
“We expect injections to slow in the coming months to avoid end of season congestion – barring a very mild rest of summer – and thus do not see much further downside to front month prices from here,” the BofA analysts said.
Additionally, the analysts said, “LNG demand will ramp up starting September and rise strongly into the winter as Europe and Asia free up storage capacity.” At this time, U.S. storage inventories are forecast to reach 3.92 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) by the end of October, well below the 4.05 Bcf record set in 2016.
BofA analysts also noted that associated gas production remains low relative to pre-pandemic levels as producers slowly shut-in oil wells back online.
Heading into the winter, we then see the balance tightening rapidly as LNG demand recovers to full capacity and U.S. gas production remains flat,” the analysts said.
Furthermore, the BofA analysts look for balance tightening to accelerate in 2021, with production returning more slowly than global industrial demand.
“We do see some upside risk to 2021 summer prices as U.S. prices may have to rise further to ration demand for LNG and power generation, or to stimulate dry gas production,” analysts said.
Finally, BofA analysts concluded that all of this is possible if the coronavirus can be contained and the economy can regain its footing before a worse-than-predicted recession hits the economy. There is downside risk “from the recession turning out to be worse than what we currently project.”
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,607
  • Aug 7, 2020 8:47am Aug 7, 2020 8:47am
In my opinion, edges taking advantage of market inefficiency (either manual or automation trading) won't last long. They may work for months or years but eventually they'll be neutralized by market efficiency. If your edge relies on certain kind of indicators or patterns, it's likely you lose your edge sooner or later when market condition changes. Almost all signal provides in famous signal services such as Myfxbook, MQL5 or Zulutrade disappear after 1-2 years. All the famous traders or investors are more or less fundamentalists. I don't think Goldman Sachs makes money using market inefficiency. Also, highly optimized backtesting algos always fail in the long run. Winning Edge > Winning Trades > Losing Edge > Redesigning the Strategy > Winning Edge > .... This cycle repeats.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,608
  • Aug 7, 2020 9:22pm Aug 7, 2020 9:22pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} The Sep-Oct spread is finally getting narrower. In contango market, spread usually becomes narrower when price goes up. Not always true though. {image} {image}
Top of the 5 year average deviation.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,609
  • Aug 8, 2020 1:13pm Aug 8, 2020 1:13pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Top of the 5 year average deviation. {image}
Looks like you graduated to be a math trader
  • #2,610
  • Aug 10, 2020 7:53pm Aug 10, 2020 7:53pm
Hedge Funds Reduce Short Positions

Hedge funds significantly reduced short-position in futures and options last week generating a significant short-squeeze. According to the latest commitment of trader’s report released for the date ending 8/4/20, managed money reduced short position in futures and options by 45K contracts while adding 10K contracts to long positions.

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...orecast-665990
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,611
  • Aug 10, 2020 8:16pm Aug 10, 2020 8:16pm
Storage Risk Concerns Move to the Forefront

Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) analysts viewed the past week’s natural gas roller coaster ride as being “commonplace” for the next couple of months, with significant volatility expected as the United States manages storage risks, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) reported.
“As we see it, the market is caught between two very different outcomes,” analysts said. “Storage is OK and should allow the market to price a more normal summer/winter spread, which would price the prompt month closer to $2.50, or storage is a problem, and we need to price supply out of the system and/or stimulate power demand, pricing the prompt month in the $1.50-1.60 range.”
The TPH team currently forecasts the storage carryout at 4.06 Bcf, “which leaves a reasonable amount of wiggle room,” but said things are more problematic on a regional level, with South Carolina, Midwest and East regions all facing a potential storage crunch. Given the vastly different outcomes depending on whether we can clear storage or not, we suggest tightening the shoulder straps as we ride out the next couple months.”

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...r-2-136-664412
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,612
  • Aug 10, 2020 9:31pm Aug 10, 2020 9:31pm
Quoting heispark
Seasonalgo and SpreadCharts are two most popular analysis platforms for retail spread traders. This Youtube video is for Seasonalgo. Because my demand is very simple, Seasonalgo is somewhat overkill to me. I use free version of SpreadCharts at least for now. https://youtu.be/LDaQ1pNkDNc
MRCI is another analysis platform available: https://www.mrci.com/web/index.php
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,613
  • Edited 7:47am Aug 11, 2020 6:57am | Edited 7:47am
Quoting heispark
{quote} {quote} {quote} Stock indices are also highly manipulated market just like Forex. Forex is even not under such regulation. There is no way for you to survive in this rat race in the long run. https://www.bloomberg.com//news/arti...rnd=markets-vp High-Frequency Trading Firm Pays $67.4 Million in Record Spoofing Penalty By Matt Robinson November 8, 2019, 3:13 AM GMT+9 Updated on November 9, 2019, 12:17 AM GMT+9 Tower Research Capital agreed to pay $67.4...
Forex day trading is just a joke. Full of noise.... Perhaps not bad for hobby but not good when serious money involved. When volatility dries out like yesterday, even the very experienced traders lose money. Of course, there's no way you can know before it happens. Long term stock investment is 100 times better. Buy Apple and Microsoft or Coka Cola when they are cheap.
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By the way, setting SL to BE is another joke to big account. It's known that size over 10 lots starts experience slippage. SL order is actually a market order. Becoming next George Soros by compounding your scalping trades is the biggest joke ever. Forex liquidity is highly exaggerated. Its liquidity is actually your broker's liquidity. Don't be fooled.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,614
  • Aug 11, 2020 7:20am Aug 11, 2020 7:20am
A good reading from someone in FF.....
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... and this person goes out at midnight with setting SL to BE......
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,615
  • Aug 11, 2020 3:44pm Aug 11, 2020 3:44pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Forex day trading is just a joke. Full of noise.... Perhaps not bad for hobby but not good when serious money involved. When volatility dries out like yesterday, even the very experienced traders lose money. Of course, there's no way you can know before it happens. Long term stock investment is 100 times better. Buy Apple and Microsoft or Coka Cola when they are cheap. {image} By the way, setting SL to BE is another joke to big account. It's known that size over 10 lots starts experience slippage. SL order is actually a market order. Becoming...
You are entirely correct stating that forex can be a joke but I totally disagree with you when you state that stock investments are 100 times better. Until 2005 I traded stocks but I switched to forex because it's less risky and you profit faster. Here is an example.
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  • #2,616
  • Aug 11, 2020 6:30pm Aug 11, 2020 6:30pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} You are entirely correct stating that forex can be a joke but I totally disagree with you when you state that stock investments are 100 times better. Until 2005 I traded stocks but I switched to forex because it's less risky and you profit faster. Here is an example. {image}
Yes, there are always exceptional people out there.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,617
  • Aug 11, 2020 8:50pm Aug 11, 2020 8:50pm
US EIA sees higher spot gas prices in 2020 ahead amid production retreats

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/m...ction-retreats
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,618
  • Aug 13, 2020 2:09am Aug 13, 2020 2:09am
What to do with a swollen battery

https://www.ifixit.com/Wiki/What_to_...wollen_battery

I am a cheapskate and use my Apple devices for a very long time. I have a 10 years old Macbook and use it as a Journalytix server. However, its battery have swelled quite significantly now. Still, it's functioning without big troubles. I also have a similarly old iPad and use it as a dedicated Bloomberg TV.

This is my Macbook. I don't think it will explode and catch fire anyway......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,619
  • Aug 13, 2020 3:25am Aug 13, 2020 3:25am
I think I will restart /NG scalping with updated strategy. I've got some good idea from somebody recently.
As I also trade /NG spread, I need to have a separate account for scalping. My broker AMP is really great. I like it!!

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(07:50:09 AM) Justin: I have a Rithmic account. I want to have two separate accounts - one for scalping, and the other one for swing trading. Can I have two accounts? If yes, can I share my deposit and Rithmic CME data between these two accounts?
(07:54:22 AM) AMP | Daniel: Hello
(07:54:32 AM) AMP | Daniel: you can have 2 accounts under 1 login
(07:54:40 AM) AMP | Daniel: but cannot share funds
(07:54:53 AM) Justin: How about CME data?
(07:55:14 AM) Justin: Should I pay for another connection?
(07:56:10 AM) Justin: Also, can I move fund from one account to the other account?
(07:57:15 AM) AMP | Daniel: yes you can do internal transfer
(07:57:20 AM) AMP | Daniel: If 1 login
(07:57:29 AM) AMP | Daniel: then only billed 1 connection
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,620
  • Aug 13, 2020 2:47pm Aug 13, 2020 2:47pm
Quoting heispark
What to do with a swollen battery https://www.ifixit.com/Wiki/What_to_...wollen_battery I am a cheapskate and use my Apple devices for a very long time. I have a 10 years old Macbook and use it as a Journalytix server. However, its battery have swelled quite significantly now. Still, it's functioning without big troubles. I also have a similarly old iPad and use it as a dedicated Bloomberg TV. This is my Macbook. I don't think it will explode and catch fire anyway...... {image}
You're not a cheapskate you're economical and don't buy the latest gadget to show off. I'm like you this is why I trade with an Alienware 19 that is 7 years old and it's still faster than most new laptops and PCs. The only new thing that I have is the latest Samsung tablet. I never bought anything from Apple because their products are not better than those of other brands and the profit margin is about 66% and I call this milking the unsuspected customers. Not a bad performance for a 7 years old laptop
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