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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #461
  • Jul 27, 2020 12:12am Jul 27, 2020 12:12am
Dears

Could you look at market SB1! (Sugar). What is your prediction/assess based on COT data. I have arranged the chart sentiment Hedge Fund and based on it we have bullish time so we should look for long entry in the mid/long period. Please check screen.


Thank you

Sincerely
Kefasa
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  • #462
  • Jul 27, 2020 6:33am Jul 27, 2020 6:33am
Quoting Kefasa
Dears Could you look at market SB1! (Sugar). What is your prediction/assess based on COT data. I have arranged the chart sentiment Hedge Fund and based on it we have bullish time so we should look for long entry in the mid/long period. Please check screen. Thank you Sincerely Kefasa {image}
Hello Kefasa

I really can't tell what to do, but i can tell what i read (but its not perfect)

By looking at your chart, you can see that extreme sentiment, one way or another leads to retrace/reversal.
Sentiment is going up, but its not as strong as before, i guess that's why you see a potential for another move up, and i would agree for sure

But looking at the short side only of the money managers , here is what i see

Attached Image
Short side is going towards the 5% level, usually whenever we hit such low level, price is falling more.

So watch out if you start buying here, as there is potential on the downside

Personally i'm done with the long side for now, i'll wait lower to buy
But please don't follow my call, i may be totally wrong and i'm not engaged in any position in the Sugar market, so it can do anything it doesn't matter to me

PS : tecnically there is potential towards 13,5 dollars, but i'd be happy to buy below 11 dollars
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #463
  • Jul 27, 2020 6:52am Jul 27, 2020 6:52am
Worried about Platinum?

This is the time i would worry for the traders buying Platinum....just an advice

Attached Image
Short side of the money managers are gone, they went home.

On a side note : Swaps dealers are going flat from net long
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #464
  • Jul 27, 2020 6:56am Jul 27, 2020 6:56am
Silver increasing shorts

While the street is going long all in, swap dealers are pouring some shorts in...

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #465
  • Jul 27, 2020 6:26pm Jul 27, 2020 6:26pm
interesting! is this data useful for the intraday trader or only the longer term trader?

is the same data accessible for forex?
  • #466
  • Jul 28, 2020 1:08am Jul 28, 2020 1:08am
Quoting Le.Metier
interesting! is this data useful for the intraday trader or only the longer term trader? is the same data accessible for forex?
COT data is for the mid/long run as its released on weekly basis

You have the datas for most traded currencies (index though)
EUR index, USD index, GBP index, JPY index, CHF index, AUD index, NZD index, ....
So you can cross the datas and can make charts for EURUSD, EURGBP, GBPNZD, etc...

Google "COT report", or check this forum for informations
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #467
  • Jul 28, 2020 2:03am Jul 28, 2020 2:03am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Hello Kefasa I really can't tell what to do, but i can tell what i read (but its not perfect) By looking at your chart, you can see that extreme sentiment, one way or another leads to retrace/reversal. Sentiment is going up, but its not as strong as before, i guess that's why you see a potential for another move up, and i would agree for sure But looking at the short side only of the money managers , here is what i see {image}Short side is going towards the 5% level, usually whenever we hit such low level, price is falling more. So watch...

Hi Kuroro001

Thank you for explanation so you try to assess the relation between both side and try to find who has the advantage ( Hedge Funds vs Money Management)?

Thank you

Sincerely
Kefasa
  • #468
  • Jul 28, 2020 3:58am Jul 28, 2020 3:58am
Quoting Kefasa
{quote} Hi Kuroro001 Thank you for explanation so you try to assess the relation between both side and try to find who has the advantage ( Hedge Funds vs Money Management)? Thank you Sincerely Kefasa
Yes, i look at every market participants, both their long and short side, and i look for extreme moves to see who's got the more to lose or to gain
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #469
  • Jul 28, 2020 5:03pm Jul 28, 2020 5:03pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Yes, i look at every market participants, both their long and short side, and i look for extreme moves to see who's got the more to lose or to gain
After today UM is at a breaking point I am thinking of buying it but I am waiting for 22.38812 Buy level or 21.88756 Sell Level
Wed will let everyone know part of the new COT levels.. Tue. was unreadable..
  • #470
  • Edited 2:37pm Aug 5, 2020 11:22am | Edited 2:37pm
Dears,

What do you think about pairs EUR/GBP? According to COT report GBP Hedge funds are bullish here. Technically it would be good point for shorting on EURGBP.


Thank you for any comments.

Sincerely
Kefasa
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  • #471
  • Aug 7, 2020 12:12am Aug 7, 2020 12:12am
Quoting Kefasa
Dears, What do you think about pairs EUR/GBP? According to COT report GBP Hedge funds are bullish here. Technically it would be good point for shorting on EURGBP. Thank you for any comments. Sincerely Kefasa {image} {image}
Quick question as our datas differ

Your Hedge funds sentiment, how did you calculated it? is it coming from the non commercial? calculated from the open interest?

Because i use the money managers (hedge funds) and i see them bearish
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #472
  • Aug 7, 2020 4:40am Aug 7, 2020 4:40am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Quick question as our datas differ Your Hedge funds sentiment, how did you calculated it? is it coming from the non commercial? calculated from the open interest? Because i use the money managers (hedge funds) and i see them bearish

Good morning,

Thanks for the reports, they are definetly very useful and are well done. I would like to ask if you have something available regarding currencies pair like GBP/USD or EUR/USD.

Thanks again for your job
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #473
  • Aug 7, 2020 10:01am Aug 7, 2020 10:01am
Quoting Bacco
{quote} Good morning, Thanks for the reports, they are definetly very useful and are well done. I would like to ask if you have something available regarding currencies pair like GBP/USD or EUR/USD. Thanks again for your job
Hello

Thank you

Yes i'll send the new ones this week end as the report is out tonight
I'll post on my currency journal "FX investing: mid/long term ideas"

Cheers
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #474
  • Aug 7, 2020 10:38am Aug 7, 2020 10:38am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Quick question as our datas differ Your Hedge funds sentiment, how did you calculated it? is it coming from the non commercial? calculated from the open interest? Because i use the money managers (hedge funds) and i see them bearish
Hi Kuroro001

I use the report COT based on "Traders in Financial Futures - Futures only". I calculate the sentiment Hedge Fund as:

'Pct_of_OI_Lev_Money_Long_All' minus 'Pct_of_OI_Lev_Money_Short_All' = Sentiment

I must apologize you and readers this topics for previous post with wrong conclusion.

Based on above the results I build the chart in Excel:

2020 looks in screen.

Have a nice weekend!

I will respond next week. I will review the thread "FX investing: mid/long term ideas"

Sincerely
Kefasa
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  • #475
  • Aug 7, 2020 12:29pm Aug 7, 2020 12:29pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Hello Thank you Yes i'll send the new ones this week end as the report is out tonight I'll post on my currency journal "FX investing: mid/long term ideas" Cheers
Amazing! thank you! By the way... I couldn't find this journal, is it going to be open this weekend?
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #476
  • Aug 7, 2020 1:35pm Aug 7, 2020 1:35pm
Quoting Kefasa
{quote} Hi Kuroro001 I use the report COT based on "Traders in Financial Futures - Futures only". I calculate the sentiment Hedge Fund as: 'Pct_of_OI_Lev_Money_Long_All' minus 'Pct_of_OI_Lev_Money_Short_All' = Sentiment I must apologize you and readers this topics for previous post with wrong conclusion. Based on above the results I build the chart in Excel: 2020 looks in screen. Have a nice weekend! I will respond next week. I will review the thread "FX investing: mid/long term ideas" Sincerely Kefasa {image}
Based on your chart, hedge funds are now short, same as mine

Also, a tip, check the longs & shorts side differently, they give you lots of clues

And no worries
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #477
  • Aug 7, 2020 1:36pm Aug 7, 2020 1:36pm
Quoting Bacco
{quote} Amazing! thank you! By the way... I couldn't find this journal, is it going to be open this weekend?
There it is

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...ong-term-ideas
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #478
  • Aug 8, 2020 4:13am Aug 8, 2020 4:13am
Quoting kuroro001
Coffee soon to rally? {image} Coffee short money managers are going bigger into shorts at the bottom. It may look low regarding the past history. But i'm still buying every dip As i mentionned before, its not only a market participants things, but its a producers and government stuff (brazil and colombia) A price below 100 dollars is harming the countries and they can't let that happen for too long That's why big bounces (20/40%) are often coming
A quick update of my previous analysis

I mentionned coffee was about to bounce (20/40% bounces happen frequently)
We just had a 30% bounce from where i've started to buy.
Now is the time to clear those longs to me, here is why below

Attached Image
Producers are going back into strong shorts, never a good sign for buyers

Attached Image
Money managers, the short side is going from 20% short to below 10%. A sign its cooling off the upside

Of course, its a not a call to sell coffee, as it can rise more due to the high level of volatility if the coffee market.
It rose more than 30% from its low, its not the time to buy long term here

You have to remember that august is usually a bad month for equities, equities can pressure a rise in the dollar, which can pressure a fall in commodities

If coffee can head back below 100 again, it would be a very good buy again
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #479
  • Aug 8, 2020 4:19am Aug 8, 2020 4:19am
Quoting kuroro001
Natural GAS : What are the short side of money managers doing ? {image} Money managers are increasing their short bets in a quick and big way, near a bottom ? Definitely NOT a smart move....
Update of my natural gas analysis

I mentionned earlier it was not a smart move from the money managers to be THAT short at the bottom.
What happened next was a classic move, and i wouldn't sell it. In fact i'm still holding longs

Attached Image
Orange circle shows shorts have not decreased enough to me. That's why i'm still holding, and i'm not adding more longs, its too late for me.
Ideally, i'll be eyeing 2.7 dollars to 3 dollars

Stay tuned
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #480
  • Aug 8, 2020 4:26am Aug 8, 2020 4:26am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Hello Kefasa I really can't tell what to do, but i can tell what i read (but its not perfect) By looking at your chart, you can see that extreme sentiment, one way or another leads to retrace/reversal. Sentiment is going up, but its not as strong as before, i guess that's why you see a potential for another move up, and i would agree for sure But looking at the short side only of the money managers , here is what i see {image}Short side is going towards the 5% level, usually whenever we hit such low level, price is falling more. So watch...
Update of my sugar analysis

I have mentionned in the past posts that sugar rally looked fake to me. The past 2week we had a 1.5 dollar move up which could be reversed quickly soon (or not)
I'm not a buyer, i can't buy long term for the following reasons

Attached Image
Producers are increasing their short hedges, way too much if you ask me

Attached Image
Money managers are buying a lot, and almost reaching the spike since the march fall (covid fall). They shouldn't be buying that much on top

Attached Image
Looking at the short side of the money managers, they are just gone! I wouldn't buy when i see that

Of course, its not a call to buy or sell. Its my analysis and i follow it, you shouldn't follow it without having an idea of what you do
It can still rises more, but i will NOT buy any sugar because of what i see
COT: The precious data ignored
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