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  • #201
  • May 26, 2020 6:44pm May 26, 2020 6:44pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Official now : EURUSD has closed in imminent break up (because it has closed the day in SH's resistance) {image}
EURUSD is going to blow up

Been a long time I haven't wait for Asia session so much

Only valid entry for late bulls is @ 1.0954

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-27052020.png Size: 130 KB


For the record, ongoing trades in EURUSD :

Quoting Replicant
To wrap up : ST play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x MT play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x Let's see what is going to happen in the upcoming weeks. By end of Q2, we could have the official go for EU Bonds (THAT IS HUGE) EURUSD H4 Map {image} EURUSD D1 Map {image} EURUSD W1 Map {image}

ST play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x

MT play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x

quick reminder : Van der leyden's European commission will unveil their recovery plan tomorrow
  • #202
  • May 27, 2020 8:04am May 27, 2020 8:04am
Quoting Replicant
{quote}... ,EU bonds are going to be a game changer. It's not reported in FF's calendar, but next week we have an important date on that topic on May 27th : European Commission is expected to unveil their recovery plan that day. => What markets will be tracking is how M&M's proposal is going to be integrate in Van der Leyden's plan. Is it going to be fully integrated, partially or not at all ?... .
Fully integrated
  • #203
  • May 27, 2020 5:07pm May 27, 2020 5:07pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Official now : EURUSD has closed in imminent break up (because it has closed the day in SH's resistance) {image}
Breach to HH but no break to HH in EURUSD today

But, as yesterday, it's closing in SH's resistance, meaning imminent break up.

EURUSD D1 Map
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-27052020b.png Size: 122 KB


EURUSD H4 Map
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-27052020.png Size: 93 KB


On the FA side, we had today our answer for last week's question :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} ...EU bonds are going to be a game changer. It's not reported in FF's calendar, but next week we have an important date on that topic on May 27th : European Commission is expected to unveil their recovery plan that day. => What markets will be tracking is how M&M's proposal is going to be integrate in Van der Leyden's plan. Is it going to be fully integrated, partially or not at all ? ...
=> European Commission has unveiled their recovery plan and it includes fully M&M's proposal. For those who know a bit EU institutions, beyond the economical move, it's a political move that Van der Leyden has made, a paradigm shift for European Union.

Final agreement of the 27 members is expected by next European Council (18-19 June) :

Quoting Replicant
{quote}...Then for the final agreement, we willl have European Council on June 18th/19th. So far, 4 countries are against the proposal : Denmark, Sweden, Austria and Netherlands (the usual suspects but for the first time since EU's creation, Big Germany is not with them, that's key) => Denmark & Sweden are very soft resistances => Austria : Sebastian Kurz is very vocal lately but if he blocks the plan he will lose his coalition as Austria's greens are backing the proposal....
Rumours are ..... it's a done deal. Basically, the 4 countries that are a bit reluctant are just going to try to renegotiate their EU contribution. Noise (posture might be more appropriate) is expected in the next 3 weeks via these negociations but outcome looks guaranteed. Meaning for the flows : retrace on noise / buy the dip.

Ongoing trades in EURUSD :

ST play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x

MT play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x
  • #204
  • May 28, 2020 9:19am May 28, 2020 9:19am
I closed the GJ short, had a few opps to close in profit but decided to let it run ant my detriment, loss, closed Dow shorts but back in at 25804, opened buy in the EU 1.0095, your original call was a great one, should have held however thought GJ could go the distance, suppose I'm not right all the time, enough to grace a profit, as I have said, your analysis is second to non.
EDIT
EU broken out of its daily range,
EDIT
If Dow holds current price to fall, see 24505 as a target
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #205
  • May 28, 2020 9:29am May 28, 2020 9:29am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.090x/1.089x in EURUSD 1.089x is reversal point on H4 New attempt here to try to ride a swing to the top of the ST range : Long bought @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x ...
Second target of ST swing 1.105x hit in EURUSD from 1.089x
+ 160 pips

Max drawdown = - 20 pips
Max drawup = + 160 pips

Realized PnL = + 100 pips @ TP1 + 160 pips @ TP2

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-28052020.png Size: 96 KB


=> 1.105x is the top of H4 range. Basically, if one thinks swing's scope is just H4, journey should end here.

Here expecting some scalpers to jump in the area as there is an "old" and untested breakdown point/SH's rejection @ 1.10606 exactly in this TF (with high of the breakdown candle being @ 1.1095) but stilll aiming the top of D1/ST range for the ST swing here, so keeping the remaining shorts for final target 1.115x and trailing STP @ 1.096x.
  • #206
  • May 28, 2020 9:41am May 28, 2020 9:41am
Have 1.10757 as a daily, there is every chance we could see this today given it's performance, past daily pattern has been formed but now the caveat appearing, without your analysis, I may have missed such opportunity.
EDIT
Dow balancing act 25616, have this as a daily it has gone up through and back to, will be watching from here for direction.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #207
  • May 28, 2020 9:58am May 28, 2020 9:58am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} [...] Here expecting some scalpers to jump in the area as there is an "old" and untested breakdown point/SH's rejection @ 1.10606 exactly in this TF (with high of the breakdown candle being @ 1.1095) but stilll aiming the top of D1/ST range for the ST swing here, so keeping the remaining shorts for final target 1.115x and trailing STP @ 1.096x.
this is the structure of current H4 Top to have a better idea :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.1060x untested breakdown.png Size: 28 KB


Quoting detector
Have 1.10757 as a daily, there is every chance we could see this today given it's performance, past daily pattern has been formed but now the caveat appearing, without your analysis, I may have missed such opportunity. EDIT Dow balancing act 25616, have this as a daily it has gone up through and back to, will be watching from here for direction.
What I have for the intraday flows is, if spot manages to trade and hold above that 1.1060, road to high of the breakdown candle 1.109x will be wide open.
Which will be great as it's our MT swing's TP1.
  • #208
  • May 28, 2020 10:22am May 28, 2020 10:22am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} this is the structure of current H4 Top to have a better idea : {image} {quote} What I have for the intraday flows is, if spot manages to trade and hold above that 1.1060, road to high of the breakdown candle 1.109x will be wide open. Which will be great as it's our MT swing's TP1.
Certainly the price action has changed, a rouse?? if not then I expect it to play out certainly to my expectation, with yours even better
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #209
  • May 28, 2020 10:43am May 28, 2020 10:43am
30 min chart, channeling possibly going on, maybe a retrace to first or second sloping res lines, have taken some profit on this that price action may be the case to get back in at these points, putting efforts into the Dow for a short scalp in the mean time, (that's if it falls)
Black lines 4hr pivots, green dashed, daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 31 KB
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #210
  • May 28, 2020 10:48am May 28, 2020 10:48am
Quoting detector
30 min chart, channeling possibly going on, maybe a retrace to first or second sloping res lines, have taken some profit on this that price action may be the case to get back in at these points, putting efforts into the Dow for a short scalp in the mean time, (that's if it falls) Black lines 4hr pivots, green dashed, daily. {image}
Couldn't make this up
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #211
  • May 28, 2020 11:08am May 28, 2020 11:08am
Update to what I'm seeing, your scenario could play out to one of three supports.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu2.png Size: 45 KB
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #212
  • May 28, 2020 12:25pm May 28, 2020 12:25pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} [...] A super bullish combo [...] 1.089x is a bullish close on W1. I had already ST longs loaded to aim the ST Top from today : {quote} but I have added, pulling the trigger for the MT play discussed the other day, following that W1 bullish close : {quote} To wrap up : ST play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x MT play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x [...]
First target of MT swing 1.109x hit in EURUSD from 1.089x

(don't be a dick for a tick applies)

+ 200 pips

Max drawdown = - 20 pips
Max drawup = + 200 pips

Realized PnL = + 200 pips @ TP1

Very glad this one is cleared as I was quite loaded. Keeping the remaining shorts for the other MT targets 1.128x & 1.164x and trailing stop @ 1.088x now

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-28052020.png Size: 134 KB
  • #213
  • May 28, 2020 12:31pm May 28, 2020 12:31pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} this is the structure of current H4 Top to have a better idea : {image} {quote} What I have for the intraday flows is, if spot manages to trade and hold above that 1.1060, road to high of the breakdown candle 1.109x will be wide open. Which will be great as it's our MT swing's TP1.
bears jumping in & selling now the high of the breakdown candle (1.109x) discussed earlier

scalpers or swingers positionning for upcoming ECB is the only question

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.1060x untested breakdown.png Size: 28 KB
  • #214
  • May 28, 2020 2:24pm May 28, 2020 2:24pm
Have to admit the Dow return would be no where near the EU return however, if this plays out with a rapid return to 24500 in may go somewhere near, seems the structured rise is either an honest one or a bull trap, with so much damage I'm not sure, just following the chart, what's your "off the record" Rep
I know this is not your choice, but the SP500 blood runs the same veins.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #215
  • May 28, 2020 2:37pm May 28, 2020 2:37pm
Quoting detector
Update to what I'm seeing, your scenario could play out to one of three supports. {image}
Buy opened on first pullback to sloping res line 1.10721
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #216
  • May 28, 2020 4:04pm May 28, 2020 4:04pm
Quoting detector
Have to admit the Dow return would be no where near the EU return however, if this plays out with a rapid return to 24500 in may go somewhere near, seems the structured rise is either an honest one or a bull trap, with so much damage I'm not sure, just following the chart, what's your "off the record" Rep I know this is not your choice, but the SP500 blood runs the same veins.
I've just pulled the trigger in US Equities (ES)

This is what I was tracking :

Quoting Replicant
ES taking 297x has unlocked high of the break down candle 303x which is now within shooting distance, and 313x to try to mark a reversal on D1. Not looking for longs here to ride the micro swing up but traking the behaviour at the top of the breakdown candle to try to load shorts (they are breaking up via FED's policy not via macro) ...
=> Behaviour at the top of the breakdown candle hinting bears are sitting there & capping the flow. Chart :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-d1-28052020.png Size: 72 KB


Worth a try with stop a few points above current high :

Sold ES @ 3035 TP1 2949 TP2 2829 TP3 2739 STP 3075
  • #217
  • May 28, 2020 4:25pm May 28, 2020 4:25pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Official now : EURUSD has closed in imminent break up (because it has closed the day in SH's resistance) {image}
Quoting Replicant
{quote} EURUSD is going to blow up Been a long time I haven't wait for Asia session so much Only valid entry for late bulls is @ 1.0954 {image} For the record, ongoing trades in EURUSD : {quote} ST play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x MT play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x quick reminder : Van der leyden's European commission will unveil their recovery plan tomorrow
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Breach to HH but no break to HH in EURUSD today But, as yesterday, it's closing in SH's resistance, meaning imminent break up. EURUSD D1 Map {image} EURUSD H4 Map {image} On the FA side, we had today our answer for last week's question : {quote} => European Commission has unveiled their recovery plan and it includes fully M&M's proposal. For those who know a bit EU institutions, beyond the economical move, it's a political move that Van der Leyden has made, a paradigm shift for European...
Super checked

And EURUSD broke up ...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-28052020b.png Size: 132 KB


Ongoing trades in EURUSD :

ST play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x

MT play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x

=> Starting to look really good. There is one week left till next ECB, that leaves plenty of time to clear last & final target of ST swing @ 1.115x before a retrace


Quoting detector
{quote} Buy opened on first pullback to sloping res line 1.10721
Very hard to enter r:r wise if you are not loaded from the bottom. Tbh, your entry looks a bit in the middle of nowhere to me but you probably know better than me what you are doing so GL.

On my side, break up points I have below on D1 TF are :
1.1054 (yes 1.1054 not 1.1031) & 1.0954
  • #218
  • May 28, 2020 6:00pm May 28, 2020 6:00pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} {quote} {quote} Super checked And EURUSD broke up ... {image} Ongoing trades in EURUSD : ST play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x MT play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x => Starting to look really good. There is one week left till next ECB, that leaves plenty of time to clear last & final target of ST swing @ 1.115x before a retrace {quote} Very hard to enter r:r wise if...
Thanks and alignment on views, pull back trades !!! as I closed EU the thing elevated, just my luck, however timing in the Dow was enough, thinking the pullbacks could be of many so plotted for future reference, from the chart, price at outer boundaries so a pullback could be imminent, that said price can crawl up the boundary, sooner or later the pullback occurs, have sights set for target entries, would set the bottom supp as a target as price grows, (orders along the rising trend), as I type, finding a 30 min trend change, will be interesting to see where it stops and turns
EDIT
Yeah, yor targets
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #219
  • May 28, 2020 6:10pm May 28, 2020 6:10pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} I've just pulled the trigger in US Equities (ES) This is what I was tracking : {quote} => Behaviour at the top of the breakdown candle hinting bears are sitting there & capping the flow. Chart : {image} Worth a try with stop a few points above current high : Sold ES @ 3035 TP1 2949 TP2 2829 TP3 2739 STP 3075
Sorry, missed the trick, gap closed, Dow too, my timing was a mistake but a good one at that.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #220
  • May 28, 2020 6:16pm May 28, 2020 6:16pm
EU 1.11328 next target? & 1.12530
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
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