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  • #181
  • May 22, 2020 9:56am May 22, 2020 9:56am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Done, M&M's €500bns revovery fund proposal taking the upper hand on german court's ruling : {image} => Road is now open to (re)start to price in FED's monetary policy. We can have a parabolic move to the upside in EURUSD with only shallow retraces if markets decide to fully price in FED's open-ended purchases. Last break up points mark areas where to try to load : @1.089x, 1.085x and 1.082x
About EURO's FA :

M&M's €500bns recovery fund's proposal if accepted will be a paradigm shift for European Union.

Flow we've seen this week in EURUSD is nothing compared to what will happen once/if the proposal is accepted.

It's only the beginning, EU bonds are going to be a game changer.

It's not reported in FF's calendar, but next week we have an important date on that topic on May 27th :

European Commission is expected to unveil their recovery plan that day.

=> What markets will be tracking is how M&M's proposal is going to be integrate in Van der Leyden's plan. Is it going to be fully integrated, partially or not at all ?

Tbh, I don't see how it will not be fully integrated in her plan as it look obvious to me M&M have already discussed about that with her before launching that press conference.

Then for the final agreement, we willl have European Council on June 18th/19th.

So far, 4 countries are against the proposal : Denmark, Sweden, Austria and Netherlands (the usual suspects but for the first time since EU's creation, Big Germany is not with them, that's key)

=> Denmark & Sweden are very soft resistances
=> Austria : Sebastian Kurz is very vocal lately but if he blocks the plan he will lose his coalition as Austria's greens are backing the proposal. So he looks pretty tied.
=> Netherlands are the only strong resistance I see. But they will end very isolated so that doesn't look like an sustainable position in the long run.

These resistances are somehow justified : If Spain, Portugal and France have made a lot of structural reforms these last years, Italy didn't. That would have made things easier.

In any case, end of Q2 going to be very exciting in EURUSD.
  • #182
  • May 22, 2020 11:58am May 22, 2020 11:58am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} first target 130.6x was hit in GBPJPY from 131.5x + 90 pips Trailing stop @ BE 131.5x now Max drawdown = -40 pips Max drawup = +90 pips {image}
You nailed it Rep, well done, The Dow trade was a little surprising, last knockings it did fall only to come back after the break, hung around through part of Asia then the fall to target, have opened a small short 24374.6, seems its on a sloping res line, ping ponging along so may see something along the same lines as yesterday with an end of trading fall, the base is 23934, residing is a sloping sup line, break this and we could see a significant one, all that could change if price moves up from here.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #183
  • May 22, 2020 1:35pm May 22, 2020 1:35pm
Quoting detector
{quote} You nailed it Rep, well done, The Dow trade was a little surprising, last knockings it did fall only to come back after the break, hung around through part of Asia then the fall to target, have opened a small short 24374.6, seems its on a sloping res line, ping ponging along so may see something along the same lines as yesterday with an end of trading fall, the base is 23934, residing is a sloping sup line, break this and we could see a significant one, all that could change if price moves up from here.
Thanks. That was a good idea to track GBPJPY . I used to trade GBP's weakness via GBPUSD then switched to EURGBP (ongoing swing still alive for final 0.913x btw) because of FED's policy, but now I think GBPJPY might be better to avoid the double exposure on EUR as I often trade EURUSD too. Let's hope we manage to call some good fat trades on this pair in this thread as LT is pointing below 120.

GL with your new trade in DJ. To me, bear's chance in ES looks gone so I'm closing the trade now ahead off the weekend :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Bulls look again powerless to take 297x in ES I've pulled the trigger : Sold ES @ 2955 TP1 2889 TP2 2839 TP3 2809 STP 2995
=> cleared all shorts in ES @ 2948 for a very symbolic reward (7 pts)

Max drawdown = - 2 points
Max drawup = + 52 points

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #184
  • May 22, 2020 2:02pm May 22, 2020 2:02pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Thanks. That was a good idea to track GBPJPY . I used to trade GBP's weakness via GBPUSD then switched to EURGBP (ongoing swing still alive for final 0.913x btw) because of FED's policy, but now I think GBPJPY might be better to avoid the double exposure on EUR as I often trade EURUSD too. Let's hope we manage to call some good fat trades on this pair in this thread as LT is pointing below 120. GL with your new trade in DJ. To me, bear's chance in ES looks gone so I'm closing the trade now ahead off the weekend : {quote}...
No probs, Ideas shared, your analysis has had me take a second look
With some good research and well timed entries the fat trades will be bagged
Your ES call gave rise to the tie up with the Dow, well done on the profits BTW, incidentally, my structured TP showed very well in the Dow's behaviour, being in for opportunity pays off, however, this recent trade has been entered a little more cautious, the constant tussle and that "Friday Feeling" makes for uneasy positions, I will be closing before the weekend as always.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #185
  • May 22, 2020 3:52pm May 22, 2020 3:52pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.090x/1.089x in EURUSD 1.089x is reversal point on H4 ...
and 1.089x held on H4, held on D1 and held on W1 ...............................................................................

=> 1.089x is reversal on H4 (cf. chart below)
=> 1.089x is rejection of the lows on D1 (cf. chart below)
=> 1.089x is a double rejection of the lows on W1 (cf. chart below) even if it's an inner one as we are trading inside bars in this TF

A super bullish combo.


1.089x is definitely the flip on the FA side for EURUSD :

=> Trading below means markets have a gloomy outlook for EZ via German court's ruling on ECB's actions
=> whereas trading above means markets have a better/upbeat outlook for EZ thanks to upcoming EU bonds

Holding 1.089x is a bullish close on W1. I had already ST longs loaded to aim the ST Top from today :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... Long bought @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x ...
but I have added, pulling the trigger for the MT play discussed the other day, following that W1 bullish close :

Quoting Replicant
... MT play pending long 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x (1:1.4 for TP1, 1:5.3 for TP3) In others words, trying to ride the full price in of FED's monetary policy (pure FA move)
To wrap up :

ST play
Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x
MT play
Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x

Let's see what is going to happen in the upcoming weeks. By end of Q2, we could have the official go for EU Bonds (THAT IS HUGE)

EURUSD H4 Map

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EURUSD D1 Map

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EURUSD W1 Map

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  • #186
  • May 24, 2020 5:39pm May 24, 2020 5:39pm
Quoting detector
{quote} You nailed it Rep, well done, The Dow trade was a little surprising, last knockings it did fall only to come back after the break, hung around through part of Asia then the fall to target, have opened a small short 24374.6, seems its on a sloping res line, ping ponging along so may see something along the same lines as yesterday with an end of trading fall, the base is 23934, residing is a sloping sup line, break this and we could see a significant one, all that could change if price moves up from here.
Closed short on Friday at a loss, not wanting to hold over the weekend, resumed new short position 24521.1, price rose above the sloping res line to become what one would now consider support, also price on a daily pivot (my own) 24505 with next DP 24295, between these levels and looking for a bias to the down side, a break could extend to 23950, if all goes to plan, move to BE+ on targets in sequence, or discretionary opportunist profit.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #187
  • May 24, 2020 8:04pm May 24, 2020 8:04pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} and 1.089x held on H4, held on D1 and held on W1 ............................................................................... => 1.089x is reversal on H4 (cf. chart below) => 1.089x is rejection of the lows on D1 (cf. chart below) => 1.089x is a double rejection of the lows on W1 (cf. chart below) even if it's an inner one as we are trading inside bars in this TF A super bullish combo. 1.089x is definitely the flip on the FA side for EURUSD : => Trading below means markets have a gloomy outlook for EZ via German court's ruling on ECB's...
Got in the EU 1.09018, all being equal, will follow with your targets, daily pivot, (my own) 1.09439 with extension,1.09652 & 1.10764......
EDIT
Made second entry 1.09
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #188
  • May 26, 2020 2:49am May 26, 2020 2:49am
Quoting detector
{quote} Got in the EU 1.09018, all being equal, will follow with your targets, daily pivot, (my own) 1.09439 with extension,1.09652 & 1.10764...... EDIT Made second entry 1.09
Closed EU 1.09322 to release an opening GJ short, speculative 132.112
Dow short still ongoing.
Possible target if it goes 130.235
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #189
  • May 26, 2020 2:55am May 26, 2020 2:55am
EU closed out just before my daily pivot 1.09440, still expect this to be a target but the opportunity not to miss the GJ was greater, all speculative.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #190
  • May 26, 2020 7:33am May 26, 2020 7:33am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... GL with your new trade in DJ. To me, bear's chance in ES looks gone so I'm closing the trade now ahead off the weekend : {quote} => cleared all shorts in ES @ 2948 for a very symbolic reward (7 pts) Max drawdown = - 2 points Max drawup = + 52 points {image}
clearing all shorts in ES was the right thing to do

Quoting Replicant
{quote} Yes if bullsmanages to take that 297x in ES on D1, they will then aim 303x (high of the breakdown candle) and 313x to try to mark a reversal in this TF. But they can't break out via macro. If they break out that will be via FED's monetary policy (as discussed for AAPL too).
=> ES taking 297x has unlocked high of the break down candle 303x which is now within shooting distance, and 313x to try to mark a reversal on D1. Not looking for longs here to ride the micro swing up but traking the behaviour at the top of the breakdown candle to try to load shorts (they are breaking up via FED's policy not via macro)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-d1-26052020.png Size: 75 KB


Quoting Replicant
{quote} Sold AAPL on the open @ 313.xx TP1 28x TP2 26x TP3 24x STP 323.xx So far last break down on H4 @ 314.xx capping the flow
This one is mechanically dead via all US Equities riding FED's money. Shorts stop on Apple already hit on pre-market .

Max drawdown = - $10 per share (-3.19%)
Maw drawup = + $13 per share (+4.15%)
Realized PnL = - $10 per share (-3.19%)
  • #191
  • May 26, 2020 9:58am May 26, 2020 9:58am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} When masks come off ..... Xi Jinping's China in complete freefall, officially threatening Taiwan to take over their island via their propaganda organ https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/...35281633157120
and again

https://www.forexfactory.com/news/10...r#post12963946

what a surprise

For the unaware, to get a quick picture of Xi Jinping's "mandate", just google:

- Xi Jinping's chinese dream (march 14th, 2013)
- militarized artificial islands in south china sea
- China's debt trap

Meanwhile, the deluded & peremptory self proclaimed elite call those who criticize China "lobotomized masses" and claim there is nothing to fear from China ...
  • #192
  • May 26, 2020 10:20am May 26, 2020 10:20am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.090x/1.089x in EURUSD 1.089x is reversal point on H4 New attempt here to try to ride a swing to the top of the ST range : Long bought @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x {image} {quote} Well whatever it works, I do scalp too. Well done with your trade in DJ.
in EURUSD, first target of ST swing 1.099x hit from 1.089x

+100 pips

Max drawdown = - 20 pips
Max drawup = + 100 pips

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Finally manage to get on the fast train (fair enough if you ask me). Let's see if momentum can trigger a break to HH on D1 now.

Quoting Replicant
{quote} and 1.089x held on H4, held on D1 and held on W1 ............................................................................... => 1.089x is reversal on H4 (cf. chart below) => 1.089x is rejection of the lows on D1 (cf. chart below) => 1.089x is a double rejection of the lows on W1 (cf. chart below) even if it's an inner one as we are trading inside bars in this TF A super bullish combo. 1.089x is definitely the flip on the FA side for EURUSD : => Trading below means markets have a gloomy outlook...
For the record, 1.089x held again yesterday's roll and was completely unveiled. If one didn't buy 1.089x after yesterday's close ...
  • #193
  • May 26, 2020 1:34pm May 26, 2020 1:34pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} in EURUSD, first target of ST swing 1.099x hit from 1.089x +100 pips Max drawdown = - 20 pips Max drawup = + 100 pips {image} Finally manage to get on the fast train (fair enough if you ask me). Let's see if momentum can trigger a break to HH on D1 now. {quote} For the record, 1.089x held again yesterday's roll and was completely unveiled. If one didn't buy 1.089x after yesterday's close ...
While most of FF's board look lost and are still looking for shorts, EURUSD is hinting a daily roll in imminent break up area
No comment

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  • #194
  • May 26, 2020 1:39pm May 26, 2020 1:39pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} in EURUSD, first target of ST swing 1.099x hit from 1.089x +100 pips Max drawdown = - 20 pips Max drawup = + 100 pips {image} Finally manage to get on the fast train (fair enough if you ask me). Let's see if momentum can trigger a break to HH on D1 now. {quote} For the record, 1.089x held again yesterday's roll and was completely unveiled. If one didn't buy 1.089x after yesterday's close ...
Didn't I get it wrong been out most of the day, no regrets, good call and profit Rep, I'm still in, may come back down to close with a better loss than present.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #195
  • May 26, 2020 1:57pm May 26, 2020 1:57pm
Quoting detector
{quote} Didn't I get it wrong been out most of the day, no regrets, good call and profit Rep, I'm still in, may come back down to close with a better loss than present.
We are on the brink of a momentum leg......
1.089x was the retrace.

It's Mutti herself who has opened the door to EU bonds.

As said last week, this is a game changer for European Union, a paradigm shift.
A new step towards full integration.
Most of FF's board haven't get it yet. The only explanation I see it's because US/UK culture prevails here, hence very few knowledge of EU institutions.

I'm going to make a bold call :
we will never see 1.089x in 2020

This said, up to you now and GL with your shorts.
  • #196
  • May 26, 2020 2:37pm May 26, 2020 2:37pm
GJ hurting, looking for a fall, maybe maybe not, but if not mistaken, Dow has gapped from Friday's close?
EDIT
GJ hitting what I would call resistance @ 133 from previous highs may see a repeat of price action from here.
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #197
  • May 26, 2020 2:57pm May 26, 2020 2:57pm
Interesting reaction on the Dow & GJ, what's your thoughts Rep?
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #198
  • May 26, 2020 4:05pm May 26, 2020 4:05pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} While most of FF's board look lost and are still looking for shorts, EURUSD is hinting a daily roll in imminent break up area No comment {image}
Official now : EURUSD has closed in imminent break up

(because it has closed the day in SH's resistance)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #199
  • May 26, 2020 5:48pm May 26, 2020 5:48pm
Quoting detector
Interesting reaction on the Dow & GJ, what's your thoughts Rep?
Well for GBPJPY, these are the maps I have :
(I haven't plot a single line on the charts since previous post)

GBPJPY H4
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GBPJPY D1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-d1-27052020.png Size: 52 KB


As you can see, it's trading the top of the range in both TF so looking for shorts is valid TA wise.
However timing doesn't look good to me : first we had today BOE's talking heads making "bullish" statement ("bullish" by nowadays' standards), then we had equities breaking up (which is bearish JPY), although that break looks suspicious with China in complete freefall & panic, not hiding anymore.

Only pending I have in GBPJPY, is on my scalp account (not the topic of this thread), with a sell @ 134.3x
Remaining shorts I had last friday were cleared at BE :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} first target 130.6x was hit in GBPJPY from 131.5x + 90 pips Trailing stop @ BE 131.5x now Max drawdown = -40 pips Max drawup = +90 pips {image}
  • #200
  • May 26, 2020 6:14pm May 26, 2020 6:14pm
Quoting detector
Interesting reaction on the Dow & GJ, what's your thoughts Rep?
For the Dow, I don't trade the Dow. I only trade ES (aka the boss ).

This is "where" I am in ES :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} ... ES taking 297x has unlocked high of the break down candle 303x which is now within shooting distance, and 313x to try to mark a reversal on D1. Not looking for longs here to ride the micro swing up but traking the behaviour at the top of the breakdown candle to try to load shorts (they are breaking up via FED's policy not via macro) ...
ES D1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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=> taking 297x has unlocked high of the breakdown candle 303x
=> while taking 303x will unlock 313x to try to mark a reversal in this TF and set a ST Bottom


ES H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: es-h4-27052020.png Size: 69 KB


=> it broke up the H4 Top by taking 297x
=> it has set a new H4 Bottom @ 294x with extrem @ 2927
=> we have a fresh valid rejection of the highs in this TF @ 2996, soft bearish signal but with China, risk off looks imminent

So if you want to sell :
If I were you, I will try to sell 2996 with stop at 303x. Target @ 294x for a simple chop ride or target @ ..... 24xx if you think risk off is imminent with China going all over the place
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