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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #321
  • May 16, 2020 3:46am May 16, 2020 3:46am
S&P 500 range bound

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The dealers are net longs, and increasing their net longs so far. Small money is going short, they could be right until they go extreme

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Nothing to see here, its been like that for weeks. The short side of the Vix Dealers are still very short, hence it doesn't fall.
To have a steep fall, we need it to be near zero

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Vix short assets managers are increasing their net short, in a small way though. To have a steep fall like before, they need to go all in short
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #322
  • May 16, 2020 4:33am May 16, 2020 4:33am
Quoting kuroro001
S&P 500 range bound {image} The dealers are net longs, and increasing their net longs so far. Small money is going short, they could be right until they go extreme {image} Nothing to see here, its been like that for weeks. The short side of the Vix Dealers are still very short, hence it doesn't fall. To have a steep fall, we need it to be near zero {image} Vix short assets managers are increasing their net short, in a small way though. To have a steep fall like before, they need to go all in short
this is one of the most crazy thing with the dealers and small players
i think if you net their positions. i think we are at record highs as a difference between smart longs and dumb shorts
also interesting the dealers are as you pointed are rare in such a long net position
crazy

meantime - you got billionaires who say this is the second most overvalued market
media all crazy about the run up
twitter with 1929 chart going on .

it will get interesting as time goes. if you get a vaccine ......
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #323
  • Edited May 17, 2020 1:46am May 16, 2020 4:50am | Edited May 17, 2020 1:46am
Corn long term buy

One piece of advice : Shorts watch out

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Producers/users are becoming flat (they are -1% net short from -27%). Watch out here

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Shorts are increasing, whenever they increase too much, its a sign of a reversal

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Short side of the money managers are getting stronger, its a sign of strength in prices

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Look at here, its a chart from the long/Short market participants, they just went -50%, 50% short over the past 4 years. Its a new record
Its showing extreme positionning
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #324
  • May 16, 2020 5:22am May 16, 2020 5:22am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} this is one of the most crazy thing with the dealers and small players i think if you net their positions. i think we are at record highs as a difference between smart longs and dumb shorts also interesting the dealers are as you pointed are rare in such a long net position crazy meantime - you got billionaires who say this is the second most overvalued market media all crazy about the run up twitter with 1929 chart going on . it will get interesting as time goes. if you get a vaccine ......
That's exactly why i'm worried.

If i follow my guts i want to short the market because it looks high and you would need a deeper correction before new highs
If i follow COT report, dealers, i'd buy the hell out of it on every dips

Its hard lately, so i'm flat and waiting for an exit up or down before loading

I wish it was down so i can buy some cheap stocks

You accumulate here ?wait lower?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #325
  • May 16, 2020 5:32am May 16, 2020 5:32am
Sugar : What to do ?

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Sugar procuders are still net shorts, they retreated lately but not as much as one would expect.

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Short side of the money managers, they are not very short. Shall we let them go all in first?

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This chart represents the long side of the consumers with the long side of the money managers.
As you can see the long side of consumers are way ahead of the money managers. I would rely on them

But for now, i'm still not a long term buyers as money managers are not doing what i like
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #326
  • May 16, 2020 5:41am May 16, 2020 5:41am
Coffee : Holding shorts

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Producers are still very short, even at the bottom. But it can go way lower. Below 100 dollars is getting cheap, i'll wait

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Money managers are still very longs. I don't like the fact they long the bottom

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Look at the short side of the money managers, even though its going down, they barely add shorts. Caution ahead

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Long/short traders chart : They are still very long, more than 40% longs. Hence shorts remain
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #327
  • May 16, 2020 6:07am May 16, 2020 6:07am
WTI crude oil : Where are we?

3 charts with one question : Are we in the same situation as september/october 2017 ?

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #328
  • May 16, 2020 6:23am May 16, 2020 6:23am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} That's exactly why i'm worried. If i follow my guts i want to short the market because it looks high and you would need a deeper correction before new highs If i follow COT report, dealers, i'd buy the hell out of it on every dips Its hard lately, so i'm flat and waiting for an exit up or down before loading I wish it was down so i can buy some cheap stocks You accumulate here ?wait lower?
buying individual names. afraid to short because of COT - and bearish sentiment i think we are 2009 levels for bearish sentiment
if it goes down i will probably buy more and wait. 98% chances i won't catch short if it goes down.
and if it goes to up to upper range of SPY 290-300 just take some profits.

also a lot of Funds reported yesterday, while they claim it was the second most overvalued stock market they bot amzn twtr nflx ...
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #329
  • May 16, 2020 6:25am May 16, 2020 6:25am
Soybean : Still very short at the bottom ??

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Producers still have net short positions in a big way. They are NOT retreating at all

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Short side of the money managers are still very low, its like we are at a bottom....i don't like that

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Weekly system is telling we are inside extreme shorts.

Based on COT, i wouldn't buy it as producers are very short, based on my WEEKLY system we are in extreme sell territory.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #330
  • May 18, 2020 9:53am May 18, 2020 9:53am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} this is one of the most crazy thing with the dealers and small players i think if you net their positions. i think we are at record highs as a difference between smart longs and dumb shorts also interesting the dealers are as you pointed are rare in such a long net position crazy meantime - you got billionaires who say this is the second most overvalued market media all crazy about the run up twitter with 1929 chart going on . it will get interesting as time goes. if you get a vaccine ......

Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #331
  • May 20, 2020 3:05am May 20, 2020 3:05am
What's the latest take on WTI, from COT's perspective?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #332
  • May 22, 2020 9:55am May 22, 2020 9:55am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote}
this COT report today will be very interesting - can't wait
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #333
  • May 23, 2020 2:51am May 23, 2020 2:51am
S&P500 : What to do ?

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S&P dealers are going stronger, buying more as we go up. Are we in the beginning of a big and fat rally into US election ?

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Assets managers are not even loaded with longs yet. They are usually a good indicator of the situation, whenever they are going extreme, it reverses soon after.

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Here is a chart of the S&p compared with the Vix short side of the dealers. Shorts are still loaded, hence Vix may go down, bringing S&P up

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Here is a chart of the S&p compared with the Vix short side of the assets managers. Assets managers are sleeping here. To have an equity dump, you would expect them to be very long here, but they are still near 10%, very low

Buying here at 3000 is no way for me. Even though COT is saying more upside coming, i don't see a good risk/reward coming out of the situation.
I'ill skip S&P trading for quite some time, as fundamentally i still expect a big dump, and sentimentally its not ready
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #334
  • May 23, 2020 7:19am May 23, 2020 7:19am
Quoting kuroro001
S&P500 : What to do ? {image} S&P dealers are going stronger, buying more as we go up. Are we in the beginning of a big and fat rally into US election ? {image} Assets managers are not even loaded with longs yet. They are usually a good indicator of the situation, whenever they are going extreme, it reverses soon after. {image} Here is a chart of the S&p compared with the Vix short side of the dealers. Shorts are still loaded, hence Vix may go down, bringing S&P up {image} Here is a chart of the S&p compared with the Vix short side of the assets...

amazing... even with HK issue they bot it back on Friday close to highs.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #335
  • May 23, 2020 8:42am May 23, 2020 8:42am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} amazing... even with HK issue they bot it back on Friday close to highs.
Hence i'm not touching it unless we have a clearer view. Plenty of others assets to play with meanwhile
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #336
  • Edited 8:58am May 23, 2020 8:47am | Edited 8:58am
Cocoa : Downside is over?

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Producers view, they are still short, cooling off, but still very short. Hence its risky to buy big here

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This second chart represents the long side of the producers with the long side of the money managers.
You can see the first one overbeat the latter one, and its usually not a good thing for bears

On a side note : If i look at the short producers against the short money managers, we are more a bit higher (35% for shorts against 25% for longs). Hence short side still prevails

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Short side of the money managers are very low, good for bulls

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My weekly system, is saying we are going extreme short, but it still can go down more

Overall ? I'd wait for the producers to cool off their short bets before jumping in. Still too many strong shorts in the market
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #337
  • May 23, 2020 8:57am May 23, 2020 8:57am
Corn : Warning !!!

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Just a quick update from last week analysis.

Producers just went long overall! Time to watch out

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My weekly system went very low, but its rising back. Maybe waiting for a move below 0 ?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #338
  • May 23, 2020 10:07am May 23, 2020 10:07am
Natural gas : Going nowhere

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Nothing to see with the producers, they are more or less flat so far

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Same story as the producers, they went from negative to flat

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Swap dealers went from very long, to 5% long. They cooled off all their long bet

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Maybe the most interesting part. Long producers are overbeating the long side of the money managers. The past 4 years show its a good idea to follow them

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Weekly system says we are approaching a strong buy zone as its going extreme for shorts.

To sum it up, i wouldn't go long yet as market participants are undecivise
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #339
  • May 24, 2020 3:25am May 24, 2020 3:25am
Currency COT matrix situation as of 22th of may 2020

Post #53
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #340
  • May 24, 2020 5:49am May 24, 2020 5:49am
Quoting kuroro001
Corn : Warning !!! {image} Just a quick update from last week analysis. Producers just went long overall! Time to watch out {image} My weekly system went very low, but its rising back. Maybe waiting for a move below 0 ?
interesting. getting any exposure ? if you will what are you trying to get, just on futures or ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
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