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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #241
  • Apr 4, 2020 4:04am Apr 4, 2020 4:04am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Looking at the PA of this week with all the economic data and gloom and doom I think it was pretty decent. I also see asset managers and dealers going up in the last 2 weeks ?
Decent in the way we didn't fall even though we had so many bad datas?

Regarding dealers, they are going up yes (dealers net short is decreasing every week)
Regarding the assets managers, they are going down, increasing their net shorts over the past weeks 3 months

But over the past 2 weeks you are right, dealers and assets managers are increasing them.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #242
  • Apr 4, 2020 4:07am Apr 4, 2020 4:07am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} I am usually very good on future movement, but sometimes when big moves coming - bad o timing. i find it hard to impossible to go Long on USD right. now. i could be wrong. this week i was. for sure but same thing happen with our discussion about Oil last week and boy did we see a huge rally
I feel the same, its hard to go long USD at this point. The risk/reward is getting worse every weeks.

The only thing i don't like is the CHF as it shows more decrease on the long run.
But i'll be buying EURO, just a good MM will help managing the positions

True, I have seen so many people looking at 10/15 dollars when it was near 20 dollars. We are 50% higher now
I'll post another analysis for Oil/Gas and other commodities later and see what it says
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #243
  • Apr 4, 2020 4:15am Apr 4, 2020 4:15am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Decent in the way we didn't fall even though we had so many bad datas?
Yes. now if we keep it simple sellers of stocks (seeing bad data) + shorts (also leveraged)
+ worse than expected on claims
+ worse than expected on jobs

and you see -1.4% on SP500, low was actualy on hit monday (March 30) 2450
again in April 1 ,2 ,3 .... and hold for now.

"data coming in worse and market doesn't fall" hm.... what's next ? climbing the wall of worry ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #244
  • Apr 4, 2020 4:28am Apr 4, 2020 4:28am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} Yes. now if we keep it simple sellers of stocks (seeing bad data) + shorts (also leveraged) + worse than expected on claims + worse than expected on jobs and you see -1.4% on SP500, low was actualy on hit monday (March 30) 2450 again in April 1 ,2 ,3 .... and hold for now. "data coming in worse and market doesn't fall" hm.... what's next ? climbing the wall of worry ?
I agree market should have sold off hard. But nothing crazy so far.

I don't kno if we are out of the woods yes, but selling here i wouldn't recommand it.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #245
  • Apr 4, 2020 5:59am Apr 4, 2020 5:59am
Oil rally to continue?

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Regarding the spread of the producers, they are still positive. So far net long, hence buying oil is the best way for now.
On a note side its decreasing, but we need to wait

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Money managers are barely moving their position, but on the rise

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Consumers/users are clearly on a buying mode. Like they did in the past with low prices
We are at a high level of longs. Good for the buyers
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #246
  • Edited 8:10am Apr 4, 2020 6:05am | Edited 8:10am
Gas power on? Update

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Same numbers as previous week, net longs is still kicking

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Money managers are clearing their net short, increasing longs so far


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Consumers/users buying at a strong pace. Shorts watch out

I'll look for long entries this new week.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #247
  • Apr 4, 2020 10:02am Apr 4, 2020 10:02am
Brazilian real curreny investment idea

Brazil is well known to be the most important producer of coffee and sugar, hence its currencies is correlated to the price of those commodities.

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Lets have a look at the BRL price against the coffee positionning (based on coffee COT market participant)
As you can see, whenever coffee is positionning bearish, BRL currencies is going weaker, the opposite works

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Regarding the sugar, i have crossed datas with the short side from money managers of sugar.
Whenever money managers are very short sugar, price of sugar rises, then BRL as well. Opposite occurs too.
If you look at the chart, red and green are good signals, but the blue failed. It failed but if you look at the coffee, you wouldn't have taken a long.

So by looking at the COT market participant from the coffee and sugar market, you can invest efficiently into the Brazilian currency
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #248
  • Apr 4, 2020 11:43am Apr 4, 2020 11:43am
Live cattle mid term buying

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Money managers are turning bearish since 3 weeks. Timing is important trading this Cattle commodities

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Short side of money managers is very short

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The whole positionning in Live cattle is very bearish, such extreme can lead to nice bounce

I'm already buying, and my position is averaging 85 dollars for now. I'll check where to add more if it goes deeper down
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #249
  • Apr 4, 2020 12:14pm Apr 4, 2020 12:14pm
Cocoa sellers overdone?

I have made 2 simple charts.
First one is regarding the difference between long consumers and long money managers. It shows consumers overcome money managers. Its bullish
Secone one is regarding the money managers, they just went net sellers this week. It doesn't mean sellers are not as it can last weeks, but it means watch out below for some bounces up. That's what i'll be looking at

Attached Image

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #250
  • Apr 5, 2020 5:20am Apr 5, 2020 5:20am
Sugar bounce?

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This first chart represents the long producers with the long money managers.
The difference is increasing quickly and strongly. It doesn't mean it'll reverse, but it can bounce nicely. Price is only 10 dollars, i was expecting below 9 dollars before a reversal.

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This second chart represents the money managers positions. They just went net short at this very low price.
Shorts are overdone, its time to look for some long for either correction or reversal
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #251
  • Apr 5, 2020 5:38am Apr 5, 2020 5:38am
Quoting kuroro001
Sugar bounce? {image} This first chart represents the long producers with the long money managers. The difference is increasing quickly and strongly. It doesn't mean it'll reverse, but it can bounce nicely. Price is only 10 dollars, i was expecting below 9 dollars before a reversal. {image} This second chart represents the money managers positions. They just went net short at this very low price. Shorts are overdone, its time to look for some long for either correction or reversal
very interesting - close to 10 again.
not trading sugar. where do you get more info about supply and demand. also sep 2019 was close to 10
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #252
  • Apr 5, 2020 5:42am Apr 5, 2020 5:42am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} very interesting - close to 10 again. not trading sugar. where do you get more info about supply and demand. also sep 2019 was close to 10
Yes, sugar is getting cheap, ideally below 10 dollars

All the informations you can see here come from cftc.gov website

Then i'm doing some excel stuff to tweak numbers and get different informations out of them
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #253
  • Apr 5, 2020 5:46am Apr 5, 2020 5:46am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Yes, sugar is getting cheap, ideally below 10 dollars All the informations you can see here come from cftc.gov website Then i'm doing some excel stuff to tweak numbers and get different informations out of them
i mean on basic sugar supply and demnad not the COT and financial information
for now drop was exactly as the market influenced by COVID

but why price fall from 23 in 2016 to 10 in 2019 ?
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #254
  • Apr 5, 2020 5:48am Apr 5, 2020 5:48am
Lumber is also very interesting - not sure if you are folowing
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #255
  • Apr 5, 2020 6:08am Apr 5, 2020 6:08am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} i mean on basic sugar supply and demnad not the COT and financial information for now drop was exactly as the market influenced by COVID but why price fall from 23 in 2016 to 10 in 2019 ?
COVID brought prices down because of a lack of demand.
In 2016 it was because of an over supply from India, Thailand and other countries. It went from deficit to surplus (like extreme surplus).
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #256
  • Apr 5, 2020 6:09am Apr 5, 2020 6:09am
Quoting DMA Trader
Lumber is also very interesting - not sure if you are folowing
I'm not following it because my broker doesn't offer it, well they don't offer orange juice neither but sometimes i follow it (because i'm following Brazilian market)

I'll have a look just not to die dumb
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #257
  • Apr 5, 2020 6:38am Apr 5, 2020 6:38am
A look at the Lumber commodity

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Net positions of the producers : They just got net long this week. Time to watch out shorts

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Money managers are increasing their net shorts, so far so good. But extreme is coming

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The difference between long producers and long money managers. It shows heavy buying down there

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Finally , the long side from the producers group. They are almost hitting the 50% (50% long of open interest). Its a lot. Cheap prices are bringing more buyers.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #258
  • Apr 7, 2020 1:52pm Apr 7, 2020 1:52pm
CTA cooling off their shorts

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Click to Enlarge Name: CTA.PNG Size: 442 KB
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #259
  • Apr 11, 2020 6:59am Apr 11, 2020 6:59am
S&P500 weekly COT update

Starting off the weeking with our precious stock market s&p index

I'll be pointing something very important for the stock market, something that doesn't happen often

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Here it is, have a look at the dealers net positions. They went from very negative to -0,9% on friday 11th april 2020.

They are becoming very much bullish.

They are still negative, but the last time it was NET POSITIVE started in August 2012 and August 2015. It then brought huge rallies.
If its the case, we could welcome new highs and even higher.
Sentiment is very bearish among the people when you read Twitter, forum or CNBC. So watch out shorts.
Obviously, ideally would be some new lows, then for sure i'll add a big load of my cash for some "cheap" stocks.

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VIX shorts asset managers are not selling, more chance of a rise

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VIX dealers are still very much short the VIX. Its always risky to short equities.

The ideal strategy is wait for a dump, then buy into it. Selling equities has always been a risky strategy, i wouldn't advise it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #260
  • Apr 11, 2020 7:05am Apr 11, 2020 7:05am
Are we done with Bitcoin ?

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You don't need to be a genius to trade Bitcoins, nor to analyse it like crazy.
Short side of the Assets managers is doing the job for you

They are clearing their short bets, and as good traders they are on the wrong side of the market.
If there is a moment NOT to buy bitcoin, its right now.

I like to buy assets cheap, and i'll buy some ETF bitcoin/ethereum once Assets managers go super short
COT: The precious data ignored
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