New York State coronavirus cases hit nearly 60,000, death toll reaches 1,000 | Metals Mine

New York State coronavirus cases hit nearly 60,000, death toll reaches 1,000 | Metals Mine

New York State coronavirus cases hit nearly 60,000, death toll reaches 1,000

From nypost.com

Nearly 60,000 coronavirus cases and 1,000 deaths have now been documented across New York State, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Sunday, as he extended the closure of non-essential businesses statewide until at least April 15. “The virus continues its march across the state of New York,” said Cuomo in his now-daily Albany press briefing, noting that only two counties in all the Empire State have so far been spared confirmed cases. “New York is the epicenter.” The state now has 59,513 confirmed diagnoses, with 965 dead, Cuomo said. That grim tally includes 32,308 cases and 678 deaths in New York City, where a ... (full story)

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Mar 29, 2020 9:03pm

using the same formula as the Italy one above New York is 8.9%
You're not going to get sub 1% at all, you can't juggle it
If you doubled case it would be 4.45% but then how infectious is it, and how many don't bother reporting.
I'm not hearing reports of thousands having symptoms, but no real illness.

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Mar 29, 2020 9:18pm — Edited

There are many factors on the death rate, I mean a long list.
It can change over time even on its own.
But for an actual fact, it's not below 2% right now worldwide like I said, in all probability. More like 4% and highly contagious.
With no medical intervention, it would be much higher... maybe the 20% less the not known un-counted.

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Mar 29, 2020 10:02pm — Edited

You can't project thinking the young are safe.No ones immune unless they got it already. Duration of immunity is unknown. Now go back to your first post and look at what you said.
It's not known why this current version isn't targeting the young at all.I never said it was 20% ,but that Is the calculation of the day for Italy.

*From September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu in just a month October And unlike a normal seasonal flu, which mostly claims victims among the very young and very old, the second wave of the Spanish flu exhibited what’s called a “W curve”—high numbers of deaths among the young and old, but also a huge spike in the middle composed of otherwise healthy 25- to 35-year-olds in the prime of their life.
“That really freaked out the medical establishment, that there was this atypical spike in the middle of the W,” says Harris

Quoting AmmaBoss

Disliked

{quote} Actually, if young individuals don't get in viruses as they are immune then they can't be counted in the number of infected cases so yes the death rate would be around 3-4%, not the 20% you were indicating earlier. However, if young individuals do get the virus but get mild symptoms that are not reported then they do count and they will lower the mortality rate to less than 3%. Anyway, agree to disagree, be safe.

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Mar 29, 2020 10:23pm — Edited

yea you can predict it,
do nothing like you indicated as economic growth damage may exceed the virus intervention {like Trump} =20% {very stable number } less those that are not counted assuming all those in the hospital would die since there critical & hospitals could not take on anymore very soon.
I provided plenty of mathematic logic its not divide by 3 ,
but heck lets do it, roll the dice with life & see if you're right .
Its round 6% approx on your idea.

Let's not add collateral damage to the other ill in the heath system right now.

It's worse than Spanish Flu by far because they never had our medical or populations.

Note Trump's attitude today in the press conference, new policy delay is the open much further.
Now he's seen a model apparently, the tone is changing with the new cases.

Theres a simple answer which is mange it better -test ,masks etc, proved elsewhere with much less risk.
Lockdown the virus .

Quoting AmmaBoss

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{quote} Yes, it can get worse but according to current data the mortality rate is around 3 % or less if the cases are underestimated. Can the virus take a similar course to the Spanish flu, yes but I can't predict that and therefore I must look at the current information available it is clear that young person suffer very mild symptoms which can easily be over-look resulting in an underestimation of the infected cases

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Mar 30, 2020 8:11am

Here are the maths in another way, reference chart above equal doubling every 3 days {exponential}
How fast you run out of any case if you ramp up not reported infections

Quoting AmmaBoss

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{quote} Nowhere near 20%, the death rate is likely sub 1%. 60,000 confirmed cases there are likely more than 3 times that number as individuals with mild symptoms never get tested. the global recession may kill far more than this virus ever could.

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Mar 30, 2020 8:41am — Edited

It's following a straight line like that on the chart because it has a constant average R0 at this time with no mitigation or no new factor.

That's how you forecast disease spread.
You don't want to dip into demographics for projection because so much is unknown and can change randomly, as shown by Spanish Flu and the two charts above New York and then Italy. The variables are massive.
That's a whole other discussion.

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Mar 30, 2020 9:44am — Edited

So you can use the basic model & predictability- to see how important it is to remove people early, the test /contact tracing was key South Korea or anywhere. How important it is to shut down now. Since in the West, it's been badly handled as a rule.
The testing can stop this. Isolate the infected. Shutdown the virus...
*R0 is a moving target depending on human action -closely linked to serial interval (lower is faster) for projection.
*note it needs to hit 70-80% of the population before its no longer exponential, on R04. That's called herd immunity.
Exponential growth is not just when something grows quickly, or faster and faster. It's when the rate of growth is proportional to the current amount.

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Mar 30, 2020 2:52pm

Quoting Bones

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wrong I argued you can't get today's data to below 1% any way you spin it. When the dust settles that rate won't be below 3% and that's high on large numbers.
20% right.... {quote}

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I'm not the 1% blabber..... You needn't argue

Ammamama blaaa is....

I'm the "heavy death toll" guy that's censored in FF censor land.
I kinda started it 🤔

Bones!!!! You started it with Italy. 🤔

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Mar 30, 2020 3:00pm — Edited

I'm analysing it, I'm not making any political point. Even when I say Trump cost lives with his banter and attitude.
Let alone the delay to the economy. History will record a super mess-up under Trump you can't spin out of it.

No good claiming to ramp up testing now, it's seeded in those 3-5 weeks with no/reduced testing. There's a time delay to seeing the result, you can only firefight the explosion coming.
Polls may favour now

, but you have to dread what's coming to the US.
Comments like the one that kicked this debate off, stem from Trump's words and would not happen had it been taken seriously enough weeks ago. Don't tell me I only just saw a model this late in the game, you're running the country spin doctor.

A lot of my posts are morbid but I think the human can resolve this quickly when we put our mind to it.

Quoting Not-KPMG

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{quote} I'm not the 1% blabber..... You needn't argue Ammamama blaaa is.... I'm the "heavy death toll" guy that's censored in FF censor land. I kinda started it Bones!!!! You started it with Italy.

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Mar 29, 2020 5:55pm

Quoting Not-KPMG

Hidden

Nowhere near 20%, the death rate is likely sub 1%.
60,000 confirmed cases there are likely more than 3 times that number as individuals with mild symptoms never get tested.
the global recession may kill far more than this virus ever could.

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Mar 29, 2020 7:18pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

how do you get 20% in Italy down to 2% or you're below 1% I'm not saying it is 20%, because of data issues mid pandemic. but it is high. On available data, it is 20% on my assumption 7 days to kill. It's a slow burner killer- infector could be longer from the test. The disease can last say 4 weeks lots of stories about being on a ventilator for weeks. There's 490k active case today against 721k test positive, this isn't a 5-minute illness. {quote} {image}

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It is not 20% pretty since actually.
3 simple facts :
Only 10% of Italy's population consists of individuals over the age of 75.
However, the average ages of all Italians deaths due to covid-19 are 80.
So how does 1/10 of a population accounts for almost all it's deaths?
unless only old individuals were infected which is highly unlikely or the mortality rate is 100% for individuals over 60 again not true.
We can assume that the data is missing a very significant element, which is young individuals get symptoms so mild they don't even report the virus.
according to current data, the death rate is .1 % for teens and 0% for children under 10.
quite similar to the seasonal flu now you tell me how many people go to the hospital for the flu.

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Mar 29, 2020 8:16pm

Quoting Bones

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there no data on age and infections, it kills the old yea show me the data on the age of all infected. its flawed analysis right from the off {quote}

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regardless of if it's flawed or not the fact is.
10% of Italy population 75 years +, accounts for 95%+ of its deaths.
so yes Italy's current death rate is 10% but unless only individuals over 75 got infected which isn't likely as younger individuals are more likely to contract the disease.
or the disease has a mortality rate of 100% + for old individuals which isn't possible, we can clearly see that cases are not being reported.
This is even back up more by the fact that various data pointed to a 10-15% death rate for older individuals. which is in line with Italy statistics.
the data also shows sub .5% mortality rate for teens and 0% for children which the situation in Italy does confirm from these fact it very easy to see that the cases are massively underestimated.

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Mar 29, 2020 9:30pm

Quoting Bones

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ok make sense of your formula from New York {image}

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This data highlights my point more actually
do you really believe a person over the age of 75 is more likely to contract the virus than an individuals between the ages of 0-17 , according to this data a person at age 75 is 5 times more likely to contract this virus than the teens and children does this data seem correct to you , taking into account how we know this virus spreads?
No, it does no which means that 0-17 years that bracket is significantly underestimated.
18-44 ( that’s roughly 26 years gap ) which makes up the biggest proportion of the population have only 2000 more cases than the ages 45-65 which is a significantly smaller proportion of the population.
lastly, I will emphasize again individuals over the age of 65 + makes up about 10% of the population accounts for about 20% of the cases again compare to the sub 17 ages group which makes up 25% of new york city population is only responsible for 2% of cases.
This again hints at massive underestimation

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Mar 29, 2020 9:36pm

Quoting Not-KPMG

Hidden

You have a preconceived hatred for the government. You don't question the numbers, you immediately default to your hatred.

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Mar 29, 2020 6:07pm

not possible
I could tell you why, it's not 1% or 2% no doubt

Quoting AmmaBoss

Disliked

{quote} Nowhere near 20%, the death rate is likely sub 1%. 60,000 confirmed cases there are likely more than 3 times that number as individuals with mild symptoms never get tested. the global recession may kill far more than this virus ever could.

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Mar 29, 2020 6:25pm — Edited

how infectious do you want to make it ? to get to 3 times, when 22% of everyone confirmed infected ends up in a hospital
you really think 2 out of 3 get so mild
When they say mild they mean your not on a ventilator, it's not mild like you never knew.
In this environment when you're ill with no test you're likely to come in to contact with medical somewhere down the line regardless for advice or something.

There are studies in the UK that say 50% of the population had it already which is ludicrous if you understand exponential. It would show in the testing of all the tests
Because the week before it had to be 25% of the population.

Exponential rise very fast when the denominator is large. Large numbers; do not come from nowhere.
It's going to show up on testing very quickly.

Quoting AmmaBoss

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{quote} well go on, why is it not 1 or 2 %

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Mar 29, 2020 6:33pm

this is working to quite a very high R0 already the higher you estimate the numbers the higher that R0 has to be.
I can look data all around the world and tell you for a fact that's not logically possible to exaggerate the infections too far like 3 times

Quoting AmmaBoss

Disliked

{quote} well go on, why is it not 1 or 2 %

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Mar 29, 2020 6:46pm — Edited

how do you get 20% in Italy down to 2% or you're below 1%
I'm not saying it is 20%, because of data issues mid pandemic.
but it is high.

On available data, it is 20% on my assumption 7 days to kill.
It's a slow burner killer- infector could be longer from the test.

The disease can last say 4 weeks lots of stories about being on a ventilator for weeks.

There's 490k active case today against 721k test positive, this isn't a 5-minute illness.

Quoting AmmaBoss

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{quote} well go on, why is it not 1 or 2 %

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Mar 29, 2020 7:48pm

there no data on age and infections, it kills the old yea
show me the data on the age of all infected.
its flawed analysis right from the off

Quoting AmmaBoss

Disliked

{quote} It is not 20% pretty since actually. 3 simple facts : Only 10% of Italy's population consists of individuals over the age of 75. However, the average ages of all Italians deaths due to covid-19 are 80. So how does 1/10 of a population accounts for almost all it's deaths? unless only old individuals were infected which is highly unlikely or the mortality rate is 100% for individuals over 60 again not true. We can assume that the data is missing a very significant element, which is young individuals get symptoms so mild they don't even report...

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Mar 29, 2020 7:57pm — Edited

I've given you the answer, what your saying is wishful thinking.
you haven't studied the finer detail of it.

Don't worry about the flu, that's nothing like this on many fronts. It kills 0.1 % -infection rate is R0 1.2
You think the world would shut on those numbers.

Quoting AmmaBoss

Disliked

{quote} It is not 20% pretty since actually. 3 simple facts : Only 10% of Italy's population consists of individuals over the age of 75. However, the average ages of all Italians deaths due to covid-19 are 80. So how does 1/10 of a population accounts for almost all it's deaths? unless only old individuals were infected which is highly unlikely or the mortality rate is 100% for individuals over 60 again not true. We can assume that the data is missing a very significant element, which is young individuals get symptoms so mild they don't even report...

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Mar 29, 2020 8:35pm

here are the deaths by age, then explain your projection

Quoting AmmaBoss

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{quote} regardless of if it's flawed or not the fact is. 10% of Italy population 75 years +, accounts for 95%+ of its deaths. so yes Italy's current death rate is 10% but unless only individuals over 75 got infected which isn't likely as younger individuals are more likely to contract the disease. or the disease has a mortality rate of 100% + for old individuals which isn't possible, we can clearly see that cases are not being reported. This is even back up more by the fact that various data pointed to a 10-15% death rate for older individuals....

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Mar 29, 2020 8:44pm — Edited

It's flawed, and a roundabout way to assume massive undercounting
We know the R0 has been running at about 3-4, maybe a bit higher how infectious do you estimate it?
3 times more infected will show in testing very fast understand exponential.

Italy is a country outside the norm 20% around the world would be doomsday.
anything over 2% is massive when you talk world population.
Also, the deaths are not the main worry outright, the high hospitalisation is equal danger. Death rate goes up fast.

I don't know why so many old are affected in Italy, that not so important and not something to project off.

Quoting AmmaBoss

Disliked

{quote} regardless of if it's flawed or not the fact is. 10% of Italy population 75 years +, accounts for 95%+ of its deaths. so yes Italy's current death rate is 10% but unless only individuals over 75 got infected which isn't likely as younger individuals are more likely to contract the disease. or the disease has a mortality rate of 100% + for old individuals which isn't possible, we can clearly see that cases are not being reported. This is even back up more by the fact that various data pointed to a 10-15% death rate for older individuals....

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Mar 29, 2020 9:37pm

ok, carry on define it by age and percentage of the population. Every age group must get it even with that logic.
Younger people are resistant to this virus all round, no one knows why

But rest assured that can change just like the Spanish Flu, which also had demographic splits.
No one uses that data to assume total infection if you can find it bring it here, ITS VERY FLAWED.

Quoting AmmaBoss

Disliked

{quote} This data highlights my point more actually do you really believe a person over the age of 75 is more likely to contract the virus than an individuals between the ages of 0-17 , according to this data a person at age 75 is 5 times more likely to contract this virus than the teens and children does this data seem correct to you , taking into account how we know this virus spreads? No, it does no which means that 0-17 years that bracket is significantly underestimated. 18-44 ( that’s roughly 26 years gap ) which makes up the biggest proportion...

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Mar 29, 2020 9:40pm

wake up ! bring the report data sub 1% with a recent date

Quoting AmmaBoss

Disliked

{quote} At the moment the estimate varies from from sub 1% in areas and 3% in others but all of these estimated were base on confirm cases which again is massively underestimated. While we do not have the data showing ages of infected, we do have to show ages of deaths which is death rate is sub 1% for all those under 50, it will be even less if the virus-infected is indeed underestimated.

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Mar 29, 2020 9:41pm

Back up your claims beyond your own world

Quoting AmmaBoss

Disliked

{quote} At the moment the estimate varies from from sub 1% in areas and 3% in others but all of these estimated were base on confirm cases which again is massively underestimated. While we do not have the data showing ages of infected, we do have to show ages of deaths which is death rate is sub 1% for all those under 50, it will be even less if the virus-infected is indeed underestimated.

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Mar 29, 2020 9:51pm

Old or young the death rates the same 3-4% of the world
older people if you like , then your satisfied.

Quoting AmmaBoss

Disliked

{quote} Well, either young individuals are currently largely immune to the virus or the cases are underestimated. it one or the other I prefer the latter options.

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Mar 30, 2020 2:44pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

how do you get 20% in Italy down to 2% or you're... te illness. {quote} {image}

Ignored

Sooo Bones can say and argue his 20% but I'm blocked and hidden???

You FF suck.

Free word, honest question is bad thing ? ?😳😳😲😲

Shame shame !

Mar 30, 2020 2:45pm

Apparently "We shall speak again" is bad????

FF sucks in freedom of speech.

Are you American or North Korean????.......

Mar 30, 2020 2:46pm

wrong
I argued you can't get today's data to below 1% any way you spin it.
When the dust settles that rate won't be below best case 3% and that's high on large numbers. It depends on what you do next how high that number is.

20% is right if you let it burn through the population, less missed infections.

[quote=Not-KPMG;12846952]{quote} Sooo Bones can say and argue his 20% but I'm blocked and hidden??? You FF suck. Free word is bad word??[/quote

Mar 29, 2020 9:38pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

There are many factors on the death rate, I mean a long list. It can change over time even on its own. But for an actual fact, it's not below 2% right now worldwide like I said, in all probability. More like 4% and highly contagious. With no medical intervention, it would be much higher... maybe the 20% less the not known un-counted. {image}

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At the moment the estimate varies from from sub 1% in areas and 3% in others but all of these estimated were base on confirm cases which again is massively underestimated.
While we do not have the data showing ages of infected, we do have to show ages of deaths which is death rate is sub 1% for all those under 50, it will be even less if the virus-infected is indeed underestimated.

Mar 29, 2020 9:42pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

ok, carry on define it by age and percentage of the population. Every age group must get it even with that logic. Younger people are resistant to this virus all round, no one knows why But rest assured that can change just like the Spanish Flu, which also had demographic splits. No one uses that data to assume total infection if you can find it bring it here, ITS VERY FLAWED. {quote}

Ignored

Well, either young individuals are currently largely immune to the virus or the cases are underestimated.
it one or the other I prefer the latter options.

Quoting Bones

Disliked

wake up ! bring the report data sub 1% with a recent date {quote}

Ignored

https://www.metalsmine.com/attachmen...0&d=1585534708
you can clearly see sub 0.7 % in other areas Wuhan is where the outbreak occurs besides there the rest of China had a mortality rate of sub 1%. Not saying this proves sub 1% as it was contained but it does provide insight, I would say worst-case scenario the death rate is currently about 2%. However, for anyone under age 50 around 1%.

Mar 29, 2020 9:54pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

Old or young the death rates the same 3-4% of the world older people if you like , then your satisfied. {quote}

Ignored

Actually, if young individuals don't get in viruses as they are immune then they can't be counted in the number of infected cases so yes the death rate would be around 3-4%, not the 20% you were indicating earlier.
However, if young individuals do get the virus but get mild symptoms that are not reported then they do count and they will lower the mortality rate to less than 3%.
Anyway, agree to disagree, be safe.

Mar 29, 2020 10:13pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

You can't project thinking the young are safe.No ones immune unless they got it already. Duration of immunity is unknown. Now go back to your first post and look at what you said. It's not known why this current version isn't toughing the young at all. *From September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu in just a month October And unlike a normal seasonal flu, which mostly claims victims among the very young and very old, the second wave...

Ignored

Yes, it can get worse but according to current data the mortality rate is around 3 % or less if the cases are underestimated. Can the virus take a similar course to the Spanish flu, yes but I can't predict that and therefore I must look at the current information available it is clear that young person suffer very mild symptoms which can easily be over-look resulting in an underestimation of the infected cases

Mar 29, 2020 8:56pm

ok make sense of your formula from New York

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Mar 29, 2020 6:24pm

omg..... #prayforall, keep fight againts Covid-19

Mar 29, 2020 6:24pm

USD will sufffer

Mar 29, 2020 6:14pm

Quoting Bones

Disliked

not possible I could tell you why, it's not 1% or 2% no doubt {quote}

Ignored

well go on, why is it not 1 or 2 %

Mar 29, 2020 6:10pm

do you think this will affect forex this week ?

Mar 30, 2020 5:24am

Federal reserve will cut theur rates more. For stabilize USA economy,

Cause more un employment who lose their job.

Its more be difficult cayse deflation so bigger than crisis on 1987 and 2008.

We dont know this recession will be L or V recession.

But when covid19 hit economy, all country will cut their interest rates nad gold will be fliying higher

Mar 30, 2020 5:36am

Quoting swing77

Disliked

USD will sufffer

Ignored

Thats right buddy.

Cause fed will be more dovish than we know hahahahahah

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