COT: The precious data ignored

Asset managers regarding bitcoin




By having a look at the asset manager's short side, they can predict us what could possibly happen for bitcoin. Seems to be better than other reportable traders group.
Whenever short side is very low, it goes down, whenever they increase it too much, its going up

Lately? short side being increased strongly...

Should we be surprised by the fall of the Mexican peso ?



To the question above, the long side from the dealers is answering it.
They clearly know what to do with the mexican peso. They increase the the bottom, and are clear most at it rises.
Lately, they have started to increase some MXN longs, but nothing strong.

Dealing AUD with copper ?

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Investing in the autralian dollar can be done with copper
Regarding the chart above, putting the copper's long side from money managers with australian price can give us a good edge.

Its definitely not perfect but it can tell us what do. Whenever copper's long have increased a lot, its time to short the AUD. The opposite works too but its not so great.

Lately what's happening? price falling down, while long money managers are not increasing. Shall we need a big bounce so they can increase a lot ? or a fall in the positions to go long.
Trend is clearly down and whenever the long side have increase gave better trades

Gas longs & shorts



Regarding the COT, its still very loaded with short, maybe too many shorts.
But my system is telling me not to buy yet again.

I would need to buy lower again

CAD longs & shorts



i updated the system for the CAD, i had bad datas on my old one, hence it wasn't good.

Right now, short side USDCAD is increasing a lot

S&P500 update : Capitulation ?

Lets start off the week end with the S&P500


Looking at the S&P with the VIX short side, we can see dealers are going all in, hitting new highs for years. Way too many shorts may hit the market on the Vix, and make the S&P rises.


This chart represent the S&P with the Vix short side of the asset managers. Easy to understand, Assets managers have cleared all their shorts. They don't expect any more fall in the S&P. Will they be right ?


This last chart represent a mix of some shorts from the market participants. Chart speak for itself, Shorts will be cleared soon, and bring the S&P back up

Bitcoin, more rises coming ?


Asset managers are known to be trend followers and bad (or can be good as well depending where is the price) at turning points.

As you can see whenever the short side of the assets managers are going "all in", prices rise. The opposite occurs as well.

Lately they are increasing their short side at the bottom...more rise coming ?

I'll buy dips until Asset managers are not longer short

Euro reversal coming ?

This week was a volatile week, plenty of pips on the short side as mentionned the past 2 weeks. Assets managers went massively longs on top. A sign they are wrong
But what if they are still massively long at the bottom ?


We could have imagined this current drop in the Euro would have made the long side of the assets managers retreat, but no! They have added even more. Like there is no tomorrow.
Regarding the history, especially the 2014 drop and 2017 bottom, Assets managers are mostly wrong, but they have been adding massive shorts on top in 2014 and massive longs at the bottom in 2017.
At this point, we would need to watch out a flush of weak longs, so we can buy into it, like Assets managers do


Regarding the assets managers, they are clearing their short side, usually they are trend followers (they would add more shorts). But they decreasing most of their short bets, as it happed in 2014 and 2017, is it a coincidence ?


Right now, something surprising...dealers ,who are usually right, are going all in shorts.
And guess what ? they did the same in 2014 (going very long on top), and in 2017 adding more shorts at the bottom.

Something is not right with the current short side.
Maybe its a bit early to look for a big rise, but its my plan. As it goes down one should decrease his shorts, take profits. I wouldn't add shorts.

I may be early but my bias is turning bullish

GBP : A simple thinking

Simple affirmation : Consider this before adding GBP shorts

Crude oil : No worries longs


Regarding the net consumers, they are increasing their longs, near their highest net long for 3 years, just a few more contracts and here we are


I zoomed in the producers/consumers positions. They accumulate shorts as it rises for a fall, accumulate longs as it fall for a rise. Simple


Just to have a look at the producers. Here are the long side of them, the consumers/users. They are adding a lot as we fall. Accumulating cheap contracts


How weird is that money managers are increasing longs?
2 scenarios can happen with them. 1/ We get a strong bounce, they'll go more longs or 2/ We'll go down, they'll clear their longs, then we'll rise (for a reversal most likely)

Strategy for me is still to buy dips. I'm on average in at 26 dollars. Saving cash in case it goes down to add more

Will Natural Gas bottom one day ?

I have been waiting for the gas to bottom and start a furious move up, but nothing is happening so far. Just a range on the lows.
But lets have a look at the current situation

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We have here all market participant positions, longs & shorts. I'll only check the short side from the money managers. The moving one.
As you can see, shorts increased drastically, saying gas could bottom around where is it now. Now ? its dropping fast. Money managers are cutting their short bet at the bottom? Looks like they know something we don't

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Here is a chart from the net producers/consumers position. They are net shorts, the closer to net long, the better it will be for the long side.
They are keeping it net short but no increasing their net short. Another good point for the long side

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This last charts represent the long side from the producers/consumers. Lately what they do is they accumulate long position as we go down, which means one should expect a bounce until they reduce it like they did before

Now on a side note : Money managers went super short, and now reducing their bet quickly. Looking at the past, they having been doing for the past 10 years on every bottom. Increasing short bets as we go down, then decreasing it as we deeper. The end is near (at least for a decent bounce)

Metals are the next to bounce?

I have 3 charts : Gold, Palladium & Copper
It shows Money is being thrown on the long side (Gold & Palladium) and too much money on the short side for Copper.

Bounce ahead?

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Trees don't grow to the sky, or they do ?

A simple picture.

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RBOB Gasoline : Sun after the storm ?

Gasoline dropped hard yesterday, is it a good time to load Gasoline?

Lets have a look at the market participants


If we look at the short side from the swap dealers, whenever they are very short, it tends to drop, the other way works too. But the timing is not that good. We have to make sure they are heavy short on top (and not on bottom, hence they get burned)


Picture is clear for the short side of the money managers. Not a lot of signals, but they are powerful once they appear. Extreme positionning lead to reversal

So what now?
From a swap dealers view they have cleared all their shorts. We could get a decent bounce, especially now we had a sweet -25% move down (capitulation?) and price is only 0,44 dollars. Worth nothing.

It could be worth throwing some dollars here and there, knowing price was 300/400% higher than it is now a few weeks ago

Longs & Shorts usdjpy



current status : short

Side note : System can change quickly depending how quick down/up prices can move

Longs & short eurusd



current status : long

Side note : System can change quickly depending how quick down/up prices can move

Coffee longs & shorts (h1/h4)

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Current status : short

Daily sentiment 27/03/2020



Quick update :
Regarding equities, its only 37%. Before shorting again i'd wait a higher reading

Energy : Dangerous territory for oil / gasoline / gas. I'm already invested in Oil. Flat in Gas, but looking for a good entry to load

Soft agri : My next big buy will be Cotton. But i'm still on the sideline for now

S&P500 update

As always, starting the week end COT analysis with the S&P500 market.

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Having a look at the money managers spread, they are like 90% of the time short, so sort of always wrong, until they are enough shorts to bring the market down.
For the upside its different situation. They seem to have some ability to spot a good turning points. It can be delayed by a few weeks. But it's been good for the past 4 years so far.
Lately they went long, now they are -0,8%, more or less flat. More downside may bring more longs into the market for a move back up.
A move back up first will obviously bring more shorts. At this point, its safer to take some longs based on the COT report. Safer in terms of probabilities based on history

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This current chart represent the short side from the vix (its a mix of shorts)
Whenever too many VIX shorts appear, S&P rises. The opposite happens at extremes.
Short side is coolling off. S&P rises doesn't look very strong. I still expect another 10/15% before going down. If we go down first, i'll look for cheap stocks to buy

CHF rally to hold on ?


Lets have a look the long side from the dealers. Its below 5%, very very low. Long CHF are clearly not seeing any rises yet.


Here is the spread between the dealers and assets managers spread. Whenever spread increase on the downside, CHF falls, as dealers are very shorts, while assets managers are mostly long (and wrong).
Right now, its negative and increasing on the negative side. CHF to fall now ? Rally was an excuse for more shorts?


Finally, the money managers side. Too many longs from them, means they will cool them off at some point, which will make the price of CHF fall (USDCHF rises).

I'll be looking at the short for CHF