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COT: The precious data ignored

  • #181
  • Mar 11, 2020 6:19am Mar 11, 2020 6:19am
Copper getting accumulated?

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This current chart represents the long side from producers of copper. As you can see, they are very good at accumulating longs on bottom. They know their market. Its not producers, but more like consumers here.
Chart speaks for itself

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On the other side, the short side of money managers are going extreme short at bottom. That's what they doing right now.

I wouldn't buy yet. But its getting ready days after days (or likely weeks after week COT wise)

I find copper a bit expansive now though. But i may jump soon as 2.4 dollars sounds a good support
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #182
  • Mar 11, 2020 8:28am Mar 11, 2020 8:28am
Watch out for a potential correction in those markets. Won't be easy for these numbers to go much lower

Time will tell

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #183
  • Mar 12, 2020 1:53am Mar 12, 2020 1:53am
CAC40 Bottom is in ? 4250/4350 with tp 4830/5150

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #184
  • Mar 12, 2020 3:41pm Mar 12, 2020 3:41pm
Quoting kuroro001
CAC40 Bottom is in ? 4250/4350 with tp 4830/5150 {image}
Totally failed, unless weekly goes back above this area

Else i'll buy equities when it goes near 0
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #185
  • Edited Mar 14, 2020 3:18am Mar 13, 2020 7:07am | Edited Mar 14, 2020 3:18am
Ethereum ETF daily system

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #186
  • Mar 14, 2020 4:53am Mar 14, 2020 4:53am
S&P update, have we hit bottom? or bear market just started?

Reading analysts, traders, banks, forums, it seems everyone and his dog are shorts, we have witnessed a 20%+ move down from top, hence they are calling a bear market. I tend to be a contrarian, devil's advocate when everybody is on the same train.
Lets see what COT says about it.

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This first chart is the position of the dealers, they are net long, very much. They are obviously accumulated S&P long contract as we go down. No surprise to see a big bounce in the coming weeks. If we go down more, dealers will accumulate more and more for the coming bounce.

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This chart represents the VIX contracts from the dealers. What says the VIX ? dealers are massively short. Watch out for bounces to cool off those shorts.
Same as the first chart, more fall in the s&p will probably bring more VIX shorts for a total reversal up in stocks

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This chart didn't move down, asset managers cooled off their shorts, and can do it for weeks. I'd follow them, i won't short if they don't.

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My system is saying we are very low, hence a bounce occured. More to come ? If we go back to the lows i'll accumulate and i'll ignore people saying we are in a bear market. Stocks are meant to go up long term. Don't be in a rush
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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #187
  • Mar 14, 2020 5:00am Mar 14, 2020 5:00am
More EURO dump ?

Last week i have warned about the fact EUR was heavily long loaded.
I have told to ask yourself :
"Will you buy Euro when you know Asset managers have the biggest long positions over the past few years?"

Post if the following : https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...1#post12797071

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Ask yourself the question again regarding this chart.
Asset managers net long went crazy.
On a side note, dealers suddenly went shorts like crazy too.

Something big will happen next week (FED lowering rates i guess!)
Lots of people mentionned lowering USD rate will bring EUR way higher, well yes its possible. So i'll short rallies, a higher price is better for shorts
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #188
  • Mar 14, 2020 5:06am Mar 14, 2020 5:06am
CHF to continue falling?

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I'll keep quick here, have a look at CHF long side from the dealers. It completely vanished.

On a side note i didn't post the short side of the dealers, but they are nearing 3 years high.

Something to consider if you are long CHF pairs.

What can happen ? Will SNB intervene and lower CHF, or will the FED do something and bring USDCHF up (CHF down)

Interesting week ahead
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #189
  • Mar 14, 2020 5:18am Mar 14, 2020 5:18am
After such a nice GBP fall, what's next?

This week i have warned about the the difference between asset managers super shorts, and money managers super longs.
I said one of them would suffer and that the "move down is not over"
Money managers took a hit.

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Here is a chart of all long positions from market participants. As you can see they are still net long, nearing 40% which is a lot. Plenty of space left for legs down.

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This chart represent the short side of the dealers. They still have plenty of shorts left, and they even increased them this week.

After almost 1000 pips down, a retrace is totally possible, but don't forget the big picture, as smart money is still short
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #190
  • Mar 14, 2020 5:25am Mar 14, 2020 5:25am
How JPY affects EUROS

By crossing the JPY longs with EURO you can see its affecting it.

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JPY longs are all the long positions from the smart money.

As you can see everything is connected and helps you taking good trades
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #191
  • Mar 14, 2020 6:16am Mar 14, 2020 6:16am
JPY to keep falling ?

Last week end i have warned about the short side of money managers going in way too much on top. Signaling JPY could retrace down.
I wasn't expecting such a sharp rise on monday, but it was a benediction for JPY shorts to get in at better price.

Here is a follow through of the situation.

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As you can see this week, asset managers went all in longs. They probably thought JPY would rise more, they are holding a bag full of dirt. Next week they'll keep holding it as far as COT says.


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Money managers are totally wrong usually. Past week they were right shorting, but with the fall of JPY they cleared off most of their shorts. Not much to say about them. They may go back short if JPY falls, and hold the same bag as the asset managers


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By having a look at the short side of money managers, we can see they cleared most of their short. Usually its a sign JPY could fall further.

This next week will be FED week, with volatile market, so watch out
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #192
  • Mar 14, 2020 6:22am Mar 14, 2020 6:22am
More pain for CAD longs?

Honestly i'm one of trader taking a hit trying to long CAD (short USDCAD). For now i keep shorting, slowly and steady, following the long dealers accumulating.

This oil dumped hurt my usdcad shorts.

Lets have a look at COT says

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Asset managers are increasing their short, and are net shorts again.
-5% to -10% is a good reversal area. I'll stick to it for now
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #193
  • Mar 14, 2020 6:46am Mar 14, 2020 6:46am
Palladium keep buying dips?

Last week i mentionned Dips were bought again and again

But we had a huge dump of palladium this week. This is what happened (and you know it) when dips are bought at all time highs.
Dealers don't care, they accumulate more lower

They just did this week

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #194
  • Mar 14, 2020 6:54am Mar 14, 2020 6:54am
Crude oil dumped, more dumping?

Last week i have mentionned producers were increasing their long and a potential bottom was possible (either a bottom, or a flash crash so producers/consumers can load more longs)

Well, we had the flash crash, i was not expecting such move (i think no one did).
But as expected, consumers are loading more on the long side as the following chart is showing

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Consumers are increasing their net longs and will do more and more if we go more down. Or we'll rip off short with fat move up, so they can unload their shorts

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Look at this chart, a bit unusual to see the long side of money managers loading longs on bottom. They may be right time, just temporary though
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #195
  • Mar 14, 2020 9:05am Mar 14, 2020 9:05am
Grains/Soft commodities

Wheat/Corn/Soybean/Cocoa/Coffee/Sugar have roughly the same positions overall

Even though we are falling nicely on these commodities as expecting since a few weeks, it seems producers are still super shorts, and money managers longs (except soybean and corn).

At this point we can only expect the fall to continue, so producers can unload their shorts, and money managers increase them (until they have enough short to give the dirty bag to someone else) until things reverse.

My concern here remains on the worry side regarding the economy. At some point it would need to bounce as everything is cheaper days after days.

Selling into rallies is the key for now. The higher the rally, the better the short
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #196
  • Mar 14, 2020 10:01am Mar 14, 2020 10:01am
Live cattle bottom seeking?

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Live cattle is close to bottoming. Positionning is getting extreme.
Net position for money managers is short.

Producers are net shorts too but decreasing.

90 dollars is "cheap", but it can go cheaper. I'll look for longs next week, if no opportunities, there will be at some point
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #197
  • Mar 14, 2020 12:35pm Mar 14, 2020 12:35pm
Quoting kuroro001
Crude oil dumped, more dumping? Last week i have mentionned producers were increasing their long and a potential bottom was possible (either a bottom, or a flash crash so producers/consumers can load more longs) Well, we had the flash crash, i was not expecting such move (i think no one did). But as expected, consumers are loading more on the long side as the following chart is showing {image} Consumers are increasing their net longs and will do more and more if we go more down. Or we'll rip off short with fat move up, so they can unload their shorts...
the thing about crude oil is that it cannt go to zero, so if you have patience, it is good buy from here to near zero (impossible) if you wanna keep it long term.
  • #198
  • Mar 14, 2020 12:38pm Mar 14, 2020 12:38pm
Quoting kuroro001
JPY to keep falling ? Last week end i have warned about the short side of money managers going in way too much on top. Signaling JPY could retrace down. I wasn't expecting such a sharp rise on monday, but it was a benediction for JPY shorts to get in at better price. Here is a follow through of the situation. {image} As you can see this week, asset managers went all in longs. They probably thought JPY would rise more, they are holding a bag full of dirt. Next week they'll keep holding it as far as COT says. {image} Money managers are totally wrong...
so you think USDJPY will go higher not lower from here (108)?
  • #199
  • Mar 14, 2020 3:03pm Mar 14, 2020 3:03pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} the thing about crude oil is that it cannt go to zero, so if you have patience, it is good buy from here to near zero (impossible) if you wanna keep it long term.
True, i may plan to add 1k every dollar down below 30 dollars, and hold it for 50/60 dollars at least.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #200
  • Mar 14, 2020 3:05pm Mar 14, 2020 3:05pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} so you think USDJPY will go higher not lower from here (108)?
Yes, as per COT report, it suggest buying dips.
It may be a volatile week with equities going crazy lately, and FED rate coming.

Of course i may be totally wrong, so i'm not 100% invested in yen
COT: The precious data ignored
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