Up to 150 million Americans are expected to contract the coronavirus, congressional doctor says

I'm not certain why a forum full of traders allegedly understanding of compounding, do not understand the impact of exponential growth rate of infection from a virus.

michaelpelly

Mar 12, 2020 2:22am

Heh, first of all - the majority of the US population lives in suburbs and works “somewhere”, usually in small groups. Such disease can’t be spread in the same way as in the overpopulated cities like other countries.

And secondly - even in China the quarantine measurements seem to work, the spread rate is decreasing rapidly.

I think COVID-19 is starting to “wear off” as a market drive - next “drama” please!

By the way - 3287 people die of car accidents PER DAY, as a contrast around 4000 victims of COVID-19 since the pandemic started.

Mar 12, 2020 8:21am

Quoting Brotyboy

Disliked

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Ignored

This link is essential reading or anyone commenting on this epidemic.
Thank you @Brothyboy for link.

Its also essential for traders who are trading the markets as the news and economic implications roll out..
If you study carefully you will see in detail the spread modeling. This is a much more sophisticated, and professional ..but basically similar to a small model we developed in February ago for our own trading strategy.

Machinist

Mar 12, 2020 2:40am

Quoting michaelpelly

Disliked

Heh, first of all - the majority of the US population lives in suburbs and works “somewhere”, usually in small groups. Such disease can’t be spread in the same way as in the overpopulated cities like other countries.

Ignored

Population density per square mile is irrelevant. People come in contact with one another regardless. I can guarantee to you that COVID-19 can spread in the US effectively enough.

Quoting michaelpelly

Disliked

I think COVID-19 is starting to “wear off” as a market drive - next “drama” please!

Ignored

We’ve only seen a teaser so far… The drama has not yet started. The USA, with their unsocialist approach to healthcare and social security, are particularly vulnerable.

plukin

Mar 12, 2020 6:18am

Quoting 2dollardog

Disliked

I'm not certain why a forum full of traders allegedly understanding of compounding, do not understand the impact of exponential growth rate of infection from a virus.

Ignored

There's understanding of that & then there's sense of things being overblown for whatever reason.. Nothing grows forever, there were pandemics/epidemics before & we are still here.
Those who does those projections forget that things go back to normal, they just love projecting the trend being in motion & then they are surprised it's different. Rather useless.
Plus news love dramas & there are certain people who just buys into that & gets overwhelmed by fear. Not really helpful state of mind.

People here should be traders. Most of traders won't make, some will break even & some will make it big. I'd say we all know that. Those successful ones doesn't care about "probabilities" & "chances", they simply make it happen. They decide they are going to be the ones who wins, separate themselves from the pack/herd mentality & do whatever it takes to get themselves there.

And I see the same applies with this virus or anything else for that matter.
Just set yourself I'll find a way no matter what & be smart about it.
And if enough people would be able to do that, viruses wouldn't be an issue.. Might be naive for now, but winner's mindset does wonders across the field. Do you wanna be a winner or a loser? Up to you, whether you believe it or not.

Mar 12, 2020 6:19am

For herd consumtion only.
This is typical news that you start to see at the end of a big move.
When every regular joe and his cousins are now aware that the market is going down down, so they sell, sell sell The herd always loses (i.e. retail forex for exemple) ...

Mar 12, 2020 6:44am

Quoting barkie

Disliked

{quote} So many idiots in this world these days, you have the experts, often doctors telling everybody how serious this issue is as here below: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...VERYTHING.html Then comes Plukin the plumber, without any knowledge whatsoever, spouting his nonsense that everything is overblown. This is exactly what is wrong with this world so many clowns these days. Bottomline : Stick with the experts, ignore the loser clowns.

Ignored

"Expert" in a "Tabloid publication" is an oxymoron

michaelpelly

Mar 12, 2020 6:33am

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

For herd consumtion only. This is typical news that you start to see at the end of a big move. When every regular joe and his cousins are now aware that the market is going down down, so they sell, sell sell The herd always loses (i.e. retail forex for exemple) ...

Ignored

It’s an old saying that when the shoe polishing boy in NY start to give you advice to buy into stock markets - it is time to get out :-).

Mar 12, 2020 4:48am

Its fascinating to have such a wealth of epidemiological expertise we have here on FF.
Some appear almost as well informed as Mr Trump. Certainly far superior to Brian Monahan and Anthony Fauci.
I guess we'll just continue to bumble along with our own 3 week global equity short, fading in further or heavier US equity shorts.

2dollardog

Mar 12, 2020 7:12am

Quoting plukin

Disliked

{quote} There's understanding of that & then there's sense of things being overblown for whatever reason.. Nothing grows forever, there were pandemics/epidemics before & we are still here. Those who does those projections forget that things go back to normal, they just love projecting the trend being in motion & then they are surprised it's different. Rather useless. Plus news love dramas & there are certain people who just buys into that & gets overwhelmed by fear. Not really helpful state of mind. People here should be traders....

Ignored

A virus is not a "virtue".
Maths cuts through BS.
Due Dilligence and not being lazy affords the right data.
People are lazy and incompetent.
COVID-19 is NOT THE FLU
Go get the datasets. DO THE MATH.
Compare them to these "other things we have survive".
Compare those datasets.

STOP BEING LAZY. GO GET THE DATASETS FROM S KOREAN FRONT-LINERS, TAIWANESE DOCTORS AND NURSES, THE ITALIAN DOCTORS (EXCEPT THOSE THAT JUST DIED) ANYTHING FROM THE FRONT LINES. IT'S ALL THERE. THEY'RE LITERALLY DYING FOR YOU TO READ THESE.

it's seems people who are destined to say "the news hypes" are the very ones only listening to the news.

Anybody who doesn't use probabilities in their trading doesn't know how to trade.

Mar 12, 2020 7:14am

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

{quote} "Expert" in a "Tabloid publication" is an oxymoron

Ignored

Aaah.. I see your irrefutable logic...
So if an reputable expert opinion is reported in an unreputable medium?.. it ceases to be Expert Opinion.

...you never fail to provide entertainment on these threads..

Mar 12, 2020 12:55pm

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

{quote} By definition reputable experts cannot be quoted in an unreputable medium. It would make the unreputable medium reputable. That would be a logical contradiction.

Ignored

Oh dear what a pity we can never have the opportunity to sit with a nice bottle of claret and discus all this.
I feel Id enjoy that.. and have a laugh.. love your outrageous idiosyncratic outlook.
But in the meanwhile can I characterise your answer as B*ll*x?

Cheers.

2dollardog

Mar 12, 2020 10:54pm

Quoting RossEdwards

Disliked

{quote} This link is essential reading or anyone commenting on this epidemic. Thank you @Brothyboy for link. Its also essential for traders who are trading the markets as the news and economic implications roll out.. If you study carefully you will see in detail the spread modeling. This is a much more sophisticated, and professional ..but basically similar to a small model we developed in February ago for our own trading strategy.

Ignored

I agree. It summarizes how problematic COVID 19 is. I'm ecstatic that young and healthy are not routinely flat-lined as they were with the Spanish Flu but it is devastating in the ways mentioned in the article. It ranks 2nd to Spanish Flu, because it is insidiously infectious.

You know what I cannot figure out? How does it go away? China was still sanitizing the empty streets a week ago

louisfx

Mar 12, 2020 1:56am

Nope why not say the whole country plus Trump.Nonsense head line.

barkie

Mar 12, 2020 6:39am

Quoting plukin

Disliked

{quote} There's understanding of that & then there's sense of things being overblown for whatever reason.. Nothing grows forever, there were pandemics/epidemics before & we are still here.

Ignored

So many idiots in this world these days, you have the experts, often doctors telling everybody how serious this issue is as here below:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...VERYTHING.html

Then comes Plukin the plumber, without any knowledge whatsoever, spouting his nonsense that everything is overblown. This is exactly what is wrong with this world so many clowns these days.

Bottomline : Stick with the experts, ignore the loser clowns.

Erebus

Mar 12, 2020 4:14am

IF this virus is stopped by all the attention focused on controlling it, then these same naysayers will be claiming “we told you so”

MisterSpread

Mar 12, 2020 2:47am

How stupid would you have to be in order to give a flying f*ck about these Apocalyptic media BS.

Paulo Coelho said it best: "If you want to control someone, all you have to do is to make them feel afraid. Fear leads to panic, and panic leads to hell".

Sounds familiar?

MisterSpread

Mar 12, 2020 5:16am

Quoting Machinist

Disliked

{quote} In a well functioning mind, fear precipitates decisive action, not panic. Panic is a dysfunction. Just saying.

Ignored

Well functioning mind in 2020 globally ? You are an romantic to say the least

OutThere

Mar 12, 2020 11:33pm

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

{quote} By definition reputable experts cannot be quoted in an unreputable medium. It would make the unreputable medium reputable. That would be a logical contradiction.

Ignored

I guess all those experts on Fox and Breitbart and IDK whatever falls in line with the-Alt Right media (Ales Jones?) can be written off as true experts. No problem. Consider it done.

Mar 12, 2020 12:08pm

Quoting RossEdwards

Disliked

{quote} Aaah.. I see your irrefutable logic... So if an reputable expert opinion is reported in an unreputable medium?.. it ceases to be Expert Opinion. ...you never fail to provide entertainment on these threads..

Ignored

By definition reputable experts cannot be quoted in an unreputable medium.
It would make the unreputable medium reputable. That would be a logical contradiction.

Mar 12, 2020 2:11pm

Quoting RossEdwards

Disliked

{quote} Oh dear what a pity we can never have the opportunity to sit with a nice bottle of claret and discus all this. I feel Id enjoy that.. and have a laugh.. love your outrageous idiosyncratic outlook. But in the meanwhile can I characterise your answer as B*ll*x? Cheers.

Ignored

Sure. But you would be wrong. I am sure that if you tried you would recognize that any true logical proposition cannot be made false.
Thus you would have a tool to discern what is true B*ll*x.

Mar 13, 2020 12:38am

Quoting OutThere

Disliked

{quote} I guess all those experts on Fox and Breitbart and IDK whatever falls in line with the-Alt Right media (Ales Jones?) can be written off as true experts. No problem. Consider it done.

Ignored

That is a good example. I you would care to work through the logical proposition you would clearly see they are not experts.

theras2000

Mar 12, 2020 5:14am

Quoting Devas1

Disliked

The death rate is high as they are letting elderly die as the case in italy which is murder https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...rticle-8101135

Ignored

You seriously think we should believe something written in the Daily mail newspaper!

Tranqility

Mar 12, 2020 5:36am

Even if it spreads as rapidly as the incompetents at the WHO claim it will, the virus will mutate just as rapidly as cold and flu viruses always do and become harmless sooner rather than later. Then hopefully toilet paper supplies will normalize.

GillyFX

Mar 12, 2020 3:08am

As the infected are harsh especially to the older people and the US only have candidates in the late 70-ties soon 80-ties, I tip most of them tilt over in the upcoming Election campaign…..more blood in the streets..!!

Brotyboy

Mar 14, 2020 6:15am

Quoting RossEdwards

Disliked

{quote} Oh dear what a pity we can never have the opportunity to sit with a nice bottle of claret and discus all this. I feel Id enjoy that.. and have a laugh.. love your outrageous idiosyncratic outlook. But in the meanwhile can I characterise your answer as B*ll*x? Cheers.

Ignored

There's a reason why he's on my iggy list.

nu9rohowidi

Mar 12, 2020 9:08am

Forex is not gold, oil, or stock market. Forex can go up or down, whatever the situation, worse or not, pandemic or not. Who has opinion about forex in world crisis like this?

Mar 12, 2020 8:09am

Prophet of doom.

Mar 13, 2020 5:40am

Quoting Mingary

Disliked

{quote} That is a good example. I you would care to work through the logical proposition you would clearly see they are not experts.

Ignored

I'm glad you agree.

Maxthetrader

Mar 12, 2020 11:08am

WARNING: the medical field has their fair share of QUACKS!

Even China won't have 150 MILLION cases.

Trade accordingly!

Machinist

Mar 12, 2020 4:55am

Quoting MisterSpread

Disliked

How stupid would you have to be in order to give a flying f*ck about these Apocalyptic media BS. Paulo Coelho said it best: "If you want to control someone, all you have to do is to make them feel afraid. Fear leads to panic, and panic leads to hell". Sounds familiar?

Ignored

In a well functioning mind, fear precipitates decisive action, not panic. Panic is a dysfunction. Just saying.

Brotyboy

Mar 12, 2020 4:34am

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Devas1

Mar 12, 2020 4:37am

The death rate is high as they are letting elderly die as the case in italy which is murder
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8101135/Intensive-care-units-stop-treating-elderly-coronavirus-outbreak-worsens.html#article-8101135

TraderTero

Mar 12, 2020 6:09am

Quoting Tranqility

Disliked

Even if it spreads as rapidly as the incompetents at the WHO claim it will, the virus will mutate just as rapidly as cold and flu viruses always do and become harmless sooner rather than later. Then hopefully toilet paper supplies will normalize.

Ignored

Based on what? Is this what for example happened with the Spanish flu virus?

foto

Mar 12, 2020 3:02am