COT: The precious data ignored

Bitcoin rally just started ?


Open shorts are sleeping, even with this high price to 10k, they haven't waken up yet.
If you think of shorting, i wouldn't yet

EURO bounce ?


I'll just have a look at the short side of the money managers (light blue line). They are nearing the 30% mark. Almost the highest in 2 years and half. Shorts are going strong as we go down.


Overall, shorts are being increased at fast pace. Trend is clearly bearish, but we wouldn't spit on a 100 pips rallies before renewing shorts.

Sugar follow through

Last week i talked about a potential fall of the sugar price, as market participants went extremely optimistic about the rise


To sum it up, producers are still very bearish, increasing their bearish hedge. Waiting for it to be unloaded.
Money managers, the short side is decreasing below 10%, it went down quickly, showing the optimism of the money managers


Here is map of the sugar market


More than 70% on the long side. More bullish in more than 2 years. Cooling off is not an option, its a need

New project (not based on COT)



Here are the potential longs & shorts opportunities based on the price of crude oil.
Its purely based on the price action, mostly trend action. I'll check how to use it alongside with COT to get the best entries

New project (not based on COT)



Longs & shorts based on the price of the EURUSD for the hourly timeframe

There is no perfect system, but we can try to improve it to maximize our returns

Euro bounce follow through ahead ?


Here is a chart from the COT report, regarding shorts euro. You can see they are increasing at dangerous level. The higher the better to long euro.


This chart above represent a weekly chart from the eurusd. Its been made by my own calculations, hence i won't say too much here.
But from there you can see any near or above 0 is a good point for euro longs. This current lasts, big bounce ahead?


Same as above, but for the daily chart. Pictures save me from saying something


H4 is saying again we are near the end of the move down. Retrace, correction, reversal, no one knows

JPY fake or real dump?


Last week JPY dumb was mostly due to open short from money managers being low.
This current drop didn't change my view of a longer term rise in JPY.
By having a look at the long dealers, they are still increasing their longs, while asset managers short side is still loaded.
The only missing data in the equation of the short side of the money managers, they increased their shorts but just a little


This chart above shows an increase in shorts from asset managers, the higher short, the higher chance of price reversal


My proprietary system on a H4 chart is showing very high chance of correction/reversal. Price extension is getting extreme up there


On a weekly basis ? Price needs a correction down to attract buyers. Upside could be limited

Prop system GBP

Plan your trades, trade your plan

Attached Image

Daily chart with long/short opportunities


H4 chart with long/short opportunities


M15 chart with long/short opportunities

Crude oil, what's next?


Regarding the chart above, we can see the different open positions from market participants.
Not much to see regarding the moves from the producers, they are slightly positive and moving in sync. But nothing big
Interesting positions from the long money managers, they are cooling off at bouncing/reversal level. Something to watch out



This current chart show how price react to the increase/decrease of the short side from money managers.


Matrix of spread for all important market participants. Everything would look good for a buy, expect the swap dealers, reluctant.


Below is my system, from weekly to H4

Weekly system is still short loaded. On a weekly basis, its not ready for a big rise yet. But it doesn't mean it can't rise.


Daily wants a bounce, which started a few days ago. If we can go higher this week, and the system increase its shorts, we'll attempt shorts (since weekly is still short)


H4 is still in a bounce mode. So far buying dips

EUR

Attached Image

Attached Image

GBP

Cocoa

Attached Image

Long side increasing

Natural gas

Short cac hedged

Daily market sentiment



Market looks very overstretched

What do those number mean?

Extreme sentiment, correction/reversal is possible

High reading = too many buyers
Low reading = too many sellers

Usually when its goes above 85 or below 15, its getting overstretched.

Thanks!

A little sum up of the COT trading over the past few weeks.
I haven't taken positions on all of them, here are just main ideas for the public

Crude oil
https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...1#post12769881
As mentionned, weekly was down, i would have expected some bounces here and there but i just went down alongside with equities.
The recent COT shows a more extreme reading. Maybe bounce has been delayed.

JPY
https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...7#post12769097
As expected, the JPY fall was fake, and a deep correction up happened.
Recent COT showing reading hasn't changed. JPY longs are still loaded. But it doesn't mean a retrace can't happen

EUR
https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...1#post12769021
As I expected, EUR bounced.

Sugar
https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...9#post12757459
As i expected, a retrace/correction is happening

Bitcoin
https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...2#post12757332
I wasn't expected a fall in Bitcoin based on the recent reading, but i couldn't long at 10K a coin.
Recent reading shows even less shorts from the other reported traders, i'm still bullish on it. I may see to add as we go down, i'm not yet in

Cocoa
https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...1#post12757021
As i expected, a retrace/correction is happening.

Natural Gas
https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...5#post12757015
I'm still bullish on Gas, loading some euros as we go down, taking some ETF. I'll keep loading

Coffee
https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...8#post12756428
I still think based on COT that the coffee rise is not strong. On the long run it is. But i'll wait for a lower move to add coffee big tile

S&P500
https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...3#post12753843
As i expected a deep correction happened. Finished or not i can't tell yet, but longs are building as we go down

VIX
https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...5#post12721095
As i expected, VIX went higher

We'll have some interesting weeks ahead now.
I still need to analyse the recent COT more in depth

Should you get worried if you are short equities ?

Attached Image

Above represent the s&p500 chart with the vix short side of the dealers. As you can see anytime they increase it, s&p rises.
Position can be increased more, but now is a good time to take profits, and not adding short after such a steep move


Here is my proprietary system, on a H4 chart. It clearly show a potential of a big bounce up