COT: The precious data ignored

Hello,

its very simple sir.

Producers/users represent big company dealing with commodities. They are institutional traders, hedging their risk of higher/lower prices. Risk of lower prices for producers so they hedge short contracts, risk of higher prices for consumers (buyers of commodites like starbucks buying coffee) so they hedge long contracts.

Money managers are speculators, they are trend followers. They dont have any interests in physical commodites. They just buy and sell like you or i do.
They are hedge funds, banks, pension funds, mutual funds, etc....
Usually they accumulate prices as it goes towards a direction, hence they are extremely longs on top, extremely short on bottom.

Hope it helps.

Australian dollar



Australian dollar analysis for the following week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both dealers and money managers (leverage funds).

In the dealers's view (dealers orange and blue line), we can see shorts slightly increased their positions shy of 1% (to 10,50% open shorts), while longs drastically decreased their open positions from 35% to 22% (13% decrease in a week). AUD dealers are clearly looking for the prices to go down.
In the money manager's view (lev.money yellow and green line), longs increased their open buy from 22% to 27%,while open shorts have increased 8% during the past 2 weeks.
What can we conclude ? both dealers and money managers are becoming more shorts. It looks totally contrarian for both of them. Are they both seeing strong fall of AUD ?
The only difference is that dealers just cleared their long positions, and are NOT adding strong shorts, while money managers are seeing a fall by adding shorts.




This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, and spread between longs & shorts dealers.
Both are very important, dealers are top/bottom finders, while money managers are trend followers and very wrong at top/bottom.
At the present day, dealers have a spread low, lowest in a year. They are not seeing a rise for now.
Money managers are still strong shorts. What is different this time is that they have increased shorts on top. So both dealers and money managers seeing shorts? one of them will be wrong at some point by adding bad open trades soon, most likely money managers



This last charts show the spread between the positions of the dealers versus the money managers.
The spread has been positive and strong for the past year (i'll analyse it over the past few years soon), hitting as much as 64% where prices bounced.
Right now its very low compared to the past year 2019. What does it mean ? Operators are overall more shorts, looking for more downside

It should be watched carefully, rallies may be sold again, until operators turn strongly bullish again

money managers bearish, dealers bearish, so who was buying above 70 couple days ago ? Retail ?

As per COT report, buyers were the asset managers and small traders/hedge funds (not big enough to be reported as money managers)

I barely look at asset managers as i prefer money managers, but asset managers are very bad at turning points. And lately they have increased a lot their net longs positions. They have been buying the top

US dollar



US dollar analysis for the following week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both dealers and money managers (leverage funds).

In the dealers's view (dealers orange and blue line), we can see open longs are near 0% for the whole 2019 year and more, while open shorts drastically decreased 25% of their open shorts. US Dollar dealers are more upside oriented for the past year and continue to be.
In the money manager's view (lev.money yellow and green line), both longs and shorts are increasing their open positions over the past weeks. Open shorts growing up faster.



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, spread between longs & shorts dealers and spread between longs & shorts asset managers (new analysis)
At the present day, dealers are decreasing their shorts, hence a rise in the spread, still negative.
Money managers are very long, with a spread around 40%. What is different regarding other currencies or commodities is that for the past year money managers have been right regarding their longs & shorts. It needs to be carefully watched.
Asset managers are very longs on top, going less and less longs as we hit bottom (or near it). Right now the spread is decreasing a lot, meaning shors are taking over open longs. Temporary bottom in place ?




This last charts show the spread between the positions of managed money and asset managers (purple) and the other one between dealers and asset managers (black)
Spread manged money/asset manager : The spread has been positive and negative for the past year. Positive spread means operators are bullish oriented and buying dips. Negative one means bearish oriented and selling rallies as we go up.
Right now its being increased a lot, meaning operators are very bullish

Spread dealers/asset manager : The spread has been very negative for the past year and still is, but its being increased (by half since october). They are becoming more and more bullish.

Silver



Silver analysis for the coming week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both producers and money managers (managed funds).

In the producer's view (producers red and blue line), we can see open longs are just sleeping at low level, while shorts stay near the 30% mark.
Silver operators don't seem to see an important rise so far.
In the money manager's view (man.money yellow and green line), open longs staying at high level above 35%, while open shorts stays on the low levels Overall, net longs are high, meaning we could see some move down.



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, and spread between longs & shorts producers.
Both are very important, producers are top/bottom finders, while money managers are trend followers and very wrong at top/bottom.
At the present day, producers are way below 0, net shorts and eyeing for more downside. While managed money are very long, if prices ever go up, managed money will surely increase their open buy to extreme level, which will make prices fall hard.



This last charts show the spread between the positions of the producers versus the money managers.
Spread has been negative for the past months, meaning operators have been eyeing a fall, no matter how high it rose.
At this level, operators are expecting more fall in prices, any high move will find sellers



Higher prices haven't seen any rise in the indicator (red on chart), its printing bearish divergence. Any rise could print more bearish divergence, signalling a strong retracement down.

New zealand dollar



New zealand analysis for the following week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both dealers and money managers (leverage funds).

In the dealers's view (dealers orange and blue line), we can see a very strong decrease of the open longs over the past weeks (from 70% to 20%), while shorts are starting to increase their open shorts. NZD dealers are bearish oriented.
In the money manager's view (lev.money yellow and green line), both open longs and shorts have been increasing their positions with open longs growing more rapidly.



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, and spread between longs & shorts dealers.
Both are very important, dealers are top/bottom finders, while money managers are trend followers and very wrong at top/bottom.
At the present day, dealers have a spread low, lowest in a year. They are not seeing a rise for now.
Money managers are still strong shorts. What is different this time is that they have increased shorts on top. So both dealers and money managers seeing shorts? one of them will be wrong at some point by adding bad open trades soon, most likely money managers
Last group, the asset managers. They are very wrong on top/bottom as they increased/decreased too much. As NZD rose, asset managers went long. Last time they went long, price fell. What's next ?



This following charts represents the spread between the dealers and money managers. The higher the spread, the higher the buying pressure. Right now its decreasing as prices rise, meaning less and less buying pressure



This following charts represents the spread between the dealers and asset managers. The higher the spread, the higher the buying pressure. Right now its decreasing as prices rise, meaning less and less buying pressure



This following charts represents the spread between the leveraged funds and asset managers. The lower the spread, the lower the buying pressure. Right now its negative, meaning selling pressure is increasing



Indicator increasing near the highest over the past year. Everytime the indicator went up that high or near, prices fell.
On a divergence side, its printing a bearish divergence

Cocoa



Cocoa analysis for the coming week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both producers and money managers (managed funds).

In the producer's view (producers red and blue line), both open longs and shorts have decreased over the past weeks, with longs a faster pace. Overall open shorts are stronger.
In the money manager's view (man.money yellow and green line), open shorts are near the lows, and sleeping above the 10%. For the open shorts to wake up, we'd need the price to fall down. Then buy into it.



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, and spread between longs & shorts producers.
Both are very important, producers are top/bottom finders, while money managers are trend followers and very wrong at top/bottom.
At the present day, producers are way below 0, net shorts and eyeing for more downside. While managed money are very long, if prices ever go up, managed money will surely increase their open buy to extreme level, which will make prices fall hard.



This next chart show the spread between the positions of the producers versus the money managers.
Spread has been negative for the past months, meaning operators have been eyeing a fall, no matter how high it rose.
At this level, operators are expecting more fall in prices, any high move will find sellers until spread increases and buyers get in.



Higher prices haven't seen any rise in the indicator (red on chart), its printing bearish divergence. Any rise could print more bearish divergence, signalling a strong retracement down. Plus, a rise above 65 have met sellers the past year

Wheat



Wheat analysis for the coming week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both producers and money managers (managed funds).

In the producer's view (producers red and blue line), open shorts have increased over the past weeks, while longs remain low. Overall open shorts are stronger.
In the money manager's view (man.money yellow and green line), open shorts are flat. Open longs are increasing quickly as prices rise.
Both producers and money managers agree price needs to be sold as it rises.



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, and spread between longs & shorts producers.
Both are very important, producers are top/bottom finders, while money managers are trend followers and very wrong at top/bottom.
At the present day, producers are way below 0, net shorts and eyeing for more downside. While managed money very long, if prices ever go up, managed money will surely increase their open buy to extreme level, which will make prices fall hard.



This next chart show the spread between the positions of the producers versus the money managers.
Spread has been negative for the past months, meaning operators have been eyeing a fall, no matter how high it rose.
At this level, operators are expecting more fall in prices, any high move will find sellers until spread increases and buyers get in.



As prices rise, indicator can't rise, meaning a correction shall occur very soon.

Smart money and indicator are showing shorts are patiently waiting to make prices fall

Canadian dollar



Canadian dollar analysis for the following week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both dealers and money managers (leverage funds).

In the dealers's view (dealers orange and blue line), we can see that the open longs are very weak and close to 0%. Clearly no dealers buying CAD, while open shorts are increasing.
In the money manager's view (lev.money yellow and green line), both open longs and shorts have been flat and close to each other. Nothing interesting there.



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, spread between longs & shorts dealers and spread between longs & shorts asset managers.
At the present day, dealers have a spread low, decreasing it, meaning increasing their shorts.
Money managers are still flat for the week. They don't have any bias.
Last group, the asset managers. They are very wrong on top/bottom as they increased/decreased too much. As CAD rose, asset managers went long heavily. Last time they went that long, price fell. What's next ?



This following charts represents the spread between the dealers and money managers. The lower the spread, the higher the selling pressure is. Right now its decreasing as prices rise, meaning strong shorts on the way.



This following charts represents the spread between the dealers and asset managers. The higher the spread, the higher the buying pressure. Right now its increasing at prices rise, meaning a lot of buying pressure. But asset managers are wrong on top, hence if it rises too much price may fall hard



Indicator is saying a potential rise, as indicator rises while price falls....cautious ahead

Daily sentiment as of friday



Nothing very interesting

Vix futures



Quick update about vix index.

Whenever dealers increase their open longs compared to their open shorts, prices are rising. It happened all the time the past year.
For the managed money its a bit more tricky, but we can see whenever the spread is getting less negative, prices are rising as well

Ideal situation would be an increase of longs for dealers and money managers, with both spreads going further positive, or less negative

Japanese yen



Japanese yen analysis for this current week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both dealers and money managers (leverage funds).

In the dealers's view (dealers orange and blue line), we can see that the open longs are getting weaker, decreasing below 25%. Clearly dealers are closing their longs yen (hence usdjpy is rising), while they are increasing their short yen, but level is still low overall.
Lets mention dealers are closing their weak longs, and and are not increasing strongly their shorts. Something to take into account
In the money manager's view (lev.money yellow and green line), both open longs and shorts have been around 20/25%, both moving in sync. Nothing strong there



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, spread between longs & shorts dealers and spread between longs & shorts asset managers.
At the present day, dealers have a spread above 0% but getting weaker and close to it. I just wouldn't be confortable taking short yen at the lows while dealers are still overall bullish (decreasing but bullish, and lets not forget they closed their long, and not strongly increasing their short bets).
Money managers are still short yen overall, but its being weaker and weaker and close to be long. Nothing to do there
Last group, the asset managers. They are very wrong on top/bottom as they increased/decreased too much. Asset managers just turned long on the yen. Very weak longs though. And long at the bottom for asset managers who are usually wrong? Something to consider again



This following charts represents the spread between the dealers and asset managers. Spread is negative, close to 0%. It would be time to think about selling some longs if prices weren't that low (usdjpy high).



As prices rise, indicator as well. Bearish divergence is around the corner.
Honestly for the yen, no strong convictions, either long or shorts. Could be the time to scalp the market up and down until a strong bias appears.

Sugar



Sugar analysis for the current week and most likely the following. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both producers and money managers (managed funds).

In the producer's view (producers red and blue line), open shorts have increased over the past weeks in a strong way while longs remain weak. Overall open shorts are stronger.
In the money manager's view (man.money yellow and green line), open shorts have decreased a lot while open longs remain low. I would have expected for the money managers to be more longs at this point.



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, and spread between longs & shorts producers.
Both are very important, producers are top/bottom finders, while money managers are trend followers and very wrong at top/bottom.
At the present day, producers are way below 0, net shorts and eyeing for downside. While managed money are a bit long, if prices ever go up, managed money will surely increase their open buy to higher levels which will make prices fall hard.



This next chart show the spread between the positions of the producers versus the money managers.
Spread has been negative for the past weeks meaning operators (producers) have been eyeing a fall so far.
At this level, operators are expecting a fall in prices, but money managers are reluctant to go more longs. Spread is -20% which is a lot. Ideally a stronger buy from money managers making prices rise will lead to a sell off.



As prices rise, indicator can't rise, meaning a correction shall occur very soon.

Indicator is showing bearish divergence. In the past year everytime indicator went above 60 it sold off.
At this point price seem to have broken up. But short operators are lurking around

Swiss franc



Swiss franc analysis for this current week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both dealers and money managers (leverage funds).

In the dealers's view (dealers orange and blue line), open longs are closing their positions and opening up shorts. chf positionning for dealers is getting reduced quickly. Are they seeing a fall in chf currency?
In the money manager's view (lev.money yellow and green line), both open longs and shorts have been around 20/30%, both moving in sync. Nothing strong there



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, spread between longs & shorts dealers and spread between longs & shorts asset managers.
I want to mention the chart represent USDCHF, (almost inverse to CHF)
At the present day, dealers have been decreasing their overall long positions, meaning they are seeing a rise in USDCHF (fall of chf currency)
Money managers are still net buyers, and always wrong. But positions are not strong.
Last group, the asset managers. They are very wrong on top/bottom as they increased/decreased too much. Asset managers are turning more and more bullish, lets be cautious



This following charts represents the spread between the dealers and money managers. Spread is positive, but decreasing rapidly. It would be the moment to start buying usdchf if spread turns bearish as it would mean dealers are selling chf way stronger than money managers are buying it.



This following charts represents the spread between the asset managers and dealers. Spread is negative, but increasing towards 0. It would be the moment to start buying usdchf if it turns bullish on chf




As prices is falling, indicator is not falling very much. Bullish divergence as well

Mexican peso



Mexican peso analysis for this current week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both dealers and money managers (leverage funds).

In the dealers's view (dealers orange and blue line), there is something important to take into account for the mexican peso. Dealers haveALWAYS been shorts for the past year. MXN rose and fell, but dealers stayed shorts, decreasing and increasing short bets over the year. They are NOT taking any long bets.
Open longs are flats, dealers are playing with the shorts, opening and closing them.
In the money manager's view (lev.money yellow and green line), lately they are slightly increasing their open longs, flattening their open shorts. Nothing very impressive, no strong bets for them. Dealers are taking the big part of the mexican peso



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, spread between longs & shorts dealers and spread between longs & shorts asset managers.
At the present day, and as mentionned above, dealers are always shorts, cutting and adding through the year. As of today, they stay near the yearly low (70% shorts). Shall it increase will see a big fall of the mexican peso.
Money managers are still net buyers, and always wrong. Position is growing, increasing week after week. Its getting worrisome for mexican peso long traders.
Last group, the asset managers. They are very wrong on top/bottom as they increased/decreased too much. Asset managers have been bullish the past year. Same as the dealers, increasing and cutting longs during the 2019 year. If we see more increase of long asset managers, we should have a good recipe for a nice fall (rise in USDMXN)



This following charts represents the spread between the asset managers and money managers. Spread is negative, but increasing and approaching mid 2019 level when price fell. But honestly nothing is very clear for the mexican peso. We just can tell operators are shorts, and increasing as prices rise, decreasing as prices fall.



As prices is falling, indicator is rising. Correction coming ?

Daily sentiment as of monday 14/01/20



Equities/vix are inside the criticial zone (again!) for correction

Everything you need to know about COT

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Interesting COT datas

What is COT and how to use it?

Very good COT analysis

More to come...

Copper



Copper analysis for the current week and most likely the followings. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both producers and money managers (managed funds).

In the producer's view (producers red and blue line), open shorts have increased over the past weeks in a strong way while longs near their 2019 lows. It seems dealers are not inclined buying copper at this price.
In the money manager's view (man.money yellow and green line), both open longs and open shorts are at the same level. Money managers positionning looks lost, but shorts decreased, while longs increased. If open longs increase more it wouldn't be good for copper



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, and spread between longs & shorts producers.
Both are very important, producers are top/bottom finders, while money managers are trend followers and very wrong at top/bottom.
At the present day, producers are way below 0, net shorts have been decreased a bit, but will add more on the way up. Money managers are flat, lost. Going from positive to 0 (slightly negative)



This next chart show the spread between the positions of the producers versus the money managers.
Spread has been negative for the past weeks meaning operators (producers) have been eyeing a fall so far.
At this level, operators are expecting a fall in prices, but money managers are reluctant to go more longs. Spread is -17%. Ideally a stronger buy from money managers making prices rise will lead to a sell off.



Any rise in prices, indicator is struggling to follow them. And in the past price sold off when indicator went above 65
With producers raising shorts, and indicator near inside selling area, it won't be too long until copper retrace/correct/reverse. Everything will depend on its strength.

Cotton



Cotton analysis for the current week. This first chart shows the open longs & shorts positions from both producers and money managers (managed funds).

In the producer's view (producers red and blue line), open shorts are being increased quickly while open longs are being decreased as rapidly. Producers are clearly stepping in for a potential cotton fall
In the money manager's view (man.money yellow and green line), open shorts went below, lowest in a year. Open longs are flattening. What does everything means? They are definitely not seeing any fall of cotton (but they are often wrong on top/bottom), and they not increasing their long positions. They must be seeing flat move or long side (weak rise)



This second chart shows the spread between longs & shorts money managers, and spread between longs & shorts producers.
Both are very important, producers are top/bottom finders, while money managers are trend followers and very wrong at top/bottom.
At the present day, producers are hitting -30%, net shorts have been increased for the past weeks while Money managers have been increased their net open longs. Watch out if you are long



This next chart show the spread between the positions of the producers versus the money managers.
Spread has been negative for the past weeks meaning operators (producers) have been eyeing a fall so far.
At this level, operators are expecting a fall in prices. Spread is near -40%, increasing rapidly. Operators are getting ready for a fall in cotton (temporary or not we don't know yet)



As prices rise, indicator as well. Both look smooth. But indicator is overstretched, highest in more than a year. Its risky to take any longs here with operators increasing shorts and indicator overstretched above 70%.
More rise should lead to a correction/retracement, confirmed by operators and indicator