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What is the action now in XAUUSD? 25 replies

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Gold RIGHT NOW

  • #341
  • Jul 23, 2019 8:27pm Jul 23, 2019 8:27pm
Quoting Harry6
{quote} Here again an updated one in which you can see XAU slowly going down on 4h chart Till which bottom? 1410? 1400? 1380?????????????
Still bull for gold
  • #342
  • Jul 23, 2019 9:47pm Jul 23, 2019 9:47pm
Looks like gold is recovering now. Anyone know what caused the sell-off to start the week?
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #343
  • Jul 24, 2019 8:20am Jul 24, 2019 8:20am
Right now I was reading this, which states Gold rising because of Europe: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ing-cross-gold
Not a ZH fan but thought this was interesting.
  • #344
  • Jul 24, 2019 9:29am Jul 24, 2019 9:29am
Right now Gold can't make up it's mind. Feels like the bears are kicking in, but not a big move yet.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #345
  • Jul 24, 2019 9:33am Jul 24, 2019 9:33am
Hedging GOLD and letting the market decide itself now. Trade safe
  • #346
  • Jul 24, 2019 3:28pm Jul 24, 2019 3:28pm
Quoting TradeMinim
Hedging GOLD and letting the market decide itself now. Trade safe
Could you elaborate on how you are hedging? Just minimizing positions?
  • #347
  • Jul 24, 2019 4:05pm Jul 24, 2019 4:05pm
Quoting bigtx
{quote} Could you elaborate on how you are hedging? Just minimizing positions?
Yeah, I join the question... Would also like to know how to derive gold trades based on the assumption we might got some other chart right.. at least for now, eurusd for example.. How do you convert/hedge that into (best - most profitable or best hedged) gold positions? specially when gold went up against usd and eur for the last month...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #348
  • Jul 24, 2019 10:53pm Jul 24, 2019 10:53pm
Right now I am hearing RBA Lowe speaking and he says he is prepared to ease again. So here is a list of central banks who have hinted that their next move is lower.

USD
ECB
BOJ
RBA
SNB

The central bank which has not commented about easing is BOC.

This is music to the ears of Gold and Silver (and BTC which also has no yield)
  • #349
  • Jul 24, 2019 11:30pm Jul 24, 2019 11:30pm
Gold seems to be stuck in a pretty tight range right now. The markets might be waiting for some key events coming up. I've posted previews for the ECB Meeting
coming up in about 7 hours, and the US Advance GDP data which is due out Friday. Until the ECB meeting, we may not see a lot of volatility in gold, or most other asset classes. Good luck!
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
EventsTrader Live All Time Return: 54.4%
  • #350
  • Jul 25, 2019 12:29pm Jul 25, 2019 12:29pm
Right now, Gold is retrenching a bit from a fairly strong drop the past 5 hours. Still feels like lower is the call. Any thoughts?
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #351
  • Jul 25, 2019 12:35pm Jul 25, 2019 12:35pm
there were a lot of stops below 1415 after double bottom! Daily is still UP, so I got in at 1412 long
Always Defend your investment 1775
  • #352
  • Jul 25, 2019 12:35pm Jul 25, 2019 12:35pm
Quoting SurfsUp
Right now, Gold is retrenching a bit from a fairly strong drop the past 5 hours. Still feels like lower is the call. Any thoughts?
It's too uncertain right now in my opinion. Based on all the data today, i'd say that down would be the probable direciton for gold...

But check this out, it came in 53 minutes ago: "ECB POLICYMAKERS SEE DEPOSIT RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER AS ALMOST CERTAIN" -however, i'd take this with a high degree of scepticism, as it has no verified source, but the news source is quote:"sources".

This is what could have triggered the rise in price, and it could continue going down. However, i advise you to remain patient and wait for a better entry. I've exited my shorts on gold for today. It's pretty risky right now, especially since it's late in the day and the US market will close soon, so i don't see much chance of another large downwards movement...

Also keep in mind that 1414 is a support zone, and 1411 is a support zone too. So we've got a situation where the price has bounced of 1411 and back above 1414, which is not the ideal situation to enter a sell, but considering all of the data today, i wouldn't say it's ideal to enter a buy either. So I think it's better to preserve capital now and cash in big tomorrow on the GDP (if it offers that chance) then to play the guessing game now.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #353
  • Jul 25, 2019 12:39pm Jul 25, 2019 12:39pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} It's too uncertain right now in my opinion. Based on all the data today, i'd say that down would be the probable direciton for gold... But check this out, it came in 53 minutes ago: "ECB POLICYMAKERS SEE DEPOSIT RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER AS ALMOST CERTAIN" -however, i'd take this with a high degree of scepticism, as it has no verified source, but the news source is quote:"sources". This is what could have triggered the rise in price, and it could continue going down. However, i advise you to remain patient and wait for a better entry. I've exited...
Interesting... would have no problem with that reasoning.. However, anyone noticed how much gold RU pilled up already? Specially compared to their MONEY SUPPLY, M0 etc..? Should the rumours about ->gold standard are true... it sure as hell this helps them increase in weight
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #354
  • Jul 25, 2019 12:43pm Jul 25, 2019 12:43pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Interesting... would have no problem with that reasoning.. However, anyone noticed how much gold RU pilled up already? Specially compared to their MONEY SUPPLY, M0 etc..? Should the rumours about ->gold standard are true... it sure as hell this helps them increase in weight
Yeah... Putin has actually said that they plan to replace the USD completely in international trade. And he constantly emphasizes how Russia has proven that international economy can function without the USD as a reserve or intermediary currency.
Maybe we do see gold standard again... but i don't think it'll be any time soon.
Through the light of enlightenment, darkness unveils the path of truth.
  • #355
  • Jul 25, 2019 12:49pm Jul 25, 2019 12:49pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} Yeah... Putin has actually said that they plan to replace the USD completely in international trade. And he constantly emphasizes how Russia has proven that international economy can function without the USD as a reserve or intermediary currency. Maybe we do see gold standard again... but i don't think it'll be any time soon.
Don't believe that lier
Always Defend your investment 1775
  • #356
  • Jul 25, 2019 1:05pm Jul 25, 2019 1:05pm
Quoting Vorenzd
{quote} Yeah... Putin has actually said that they plan to replace the USD completely in international trade. And he constantly emphasizes how Russia has proven that international economy can function without the USD as a reserve or intermediary currency. Maybe we do see gold standard again... but i don't think it'll be any time soon.
Don't know about the actual timeframe either.. but would sure as hell watch for the signs/trends..
Watch this for example... https://www.rt.com/business/465054-r...s-100-billion/
100B in GOLD reserves... Now compare this to Russia Money Supply M1, M2... (on Money supply).
RU M1: 21624 RUB to USD = around 340B USD...
GOLD RESERVES: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gold-reserves

US M1: 3800B USD (3.8T USD)
M1 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...oney-supply-m1
M2 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...oney-supply-m2
GOLD RESERVES: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-.../gold-reserves

Check the TIMEFRAME, for example last 10years.. for both... or use MAX

check the Money supply of USD in the 60s... (gold standard)... vs gold reserves...
137B of M1 in 1960... and 20B of GOLD reserves so lets say GOLD reservers were 15% of M1 in 1960... vs... NOW...
3800B of M1 vs... about 380B in gold... so about 10%
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-t...andard-3306136
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/united-s...oney-supply-m1

As of RUSSIA... NOW has M1 of 340B and 100B in USD equivalent... so about 30%... Think about it...
Just love countries that LOVE/respect the power of gold Yeah some have (absolute) ADVANTAGE now, but the (still) increasing size (aka piling up) for some (countries) is spectacular.. something to watch for... At least in my book.. GOLD = MONEY.

P.S. Made a rather quick post about this... hope I got the links, info right.... specially rates... didnt double check at current rate.. but I think you get the general picture...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #357
  • Jul 25, 2019 1:20pm Jul 25, 2019 1:20pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Don't know about the actual timeframe either.. but would sure as hell watch for the signs/trends.. Watch this for example... https://www.rt.com/business/465054-r...s-100-billion/ 100B in GOLD reserves... Now compare this to Russia Money Supply M1, M2... (on Money supply). RU M1: 21624 RUB to USD = around 340B USD... GOLD RESERVES:...
Ok google a little, this article is not so far off either
https://sdbullion.com/blog/gold-back...russian-ruble/
"According to the data, it would only take a US dollar price of gold to clear $2,058.00 for the Russian Federation to have all its M0 narrow money supply fully backed." Think about it

But hey, some talks about gold standard coming from US/Trump as well I wonder who would be first (smartest - in my book)

Ok that would be from my side regarding the Gold piling up trends and gold standard possibilities... I think we are not that far from that as some might think...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #358
  • Jul 25, 2019 1:24pm Jul 25, 2019 1:24pm
Quoting Hunterrus84
there were a lot of stops below 1415 after double bottom! Daily is still UP, so I got in at 1412 long
Looks like a good move so far!

Quoting Vorenzd
So I think it's better to preserve capital now and cash in big tomorrow on the GDP (if it offers that chance) then to play the guessing game now.
I wish I'd read you post before entering those sells at 1412. But, still up 10% today, so I think I'm with you on waiting until tomorrow.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #359
  • Jul 25, 2019 1:51pm Jul 25, 2019 1:51pm
BTW.. I also closed my positions for the week...
But will start it good (full power, full thrust)... on Monday morning (29JUL19)
I was waiting for quite some time for this... Beginning of next week, the trading conditions will be OPTIMAL... If I am correct..
Much more liquidity coming, volume, if my indicators are correct... I love FLOW instead of this STALL that we had for quite some time.. awaiting famous words from the big ones
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #360
  • Jul 25, 2019 8:53pm Jul 25, 2019 8:53pm
Hello again friends...

Its been a little while since I was able to post and catching up on all the stuff going on here has been a bit of work. WOW...I guess many are still bullish on Gold. And from looking at the price action I can certainly understand why one might be inclined to be bullish. I however remain, bearish, but am s-l-o-w-l-y inclining toward a neutral outlook. Let me show you why...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 56 KB

While there has been a lot of "buzz" about the "bullish break" on gold, I still remain unimpressed. Take a look at the high seen here...that was the "bullish break"...All that "buying" was weak and there was some actual selling at the top (however weak). The very next day strong and strengthening selling took dominance. Every day since then has been selling dominance in the order flow. Today's order flow (on the right edge) is buying but the new day - Friday has just started in Asian trading. Yesterday's trading showed the majority of selling at the bottom of the day. This appears to have been buyers exiting out, the question is this: If no one is buying...and the latest buyers have just exited, what is going to drive prices higher?

Next week is interest rate decision by FOMC...so perhaps that will be the impetus for more buying...right now it is looking a lot like the prairie I just drove across...flat...with an occasional up and down.

I am remaining with my shorts in place, for now.
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