BOOM! - Made Gold Pop right now....
What is the action now in XAUUSD? 25 replies
Gold, is it right time to buy? 9 replies
Oanda now offers Gold and Silver 6 replies
Disliked{quote} We know the Fed doesn't like to surprise the market... If they're going to cut 25bps they're going to need to reshape market expectations first. We should see some (relatively) hawkish speeches coming up next week.Ignored
QuoteDislikedFederal Reserve policy limits the extent to which FOMC participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews during Federal Reserve blackout periods, which begin the second Saturday preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and end the Thursday following a meeting unless otherwise noted.
I don't see the data or evidence that supports a 50 basis point rate cut. 71% think we are getting a 50bp rate cut? Shocking:
Disliked{quote} Wow, thanks for sharing. I was just looking at the CME watchtool a few hours ago and it was 30% for 50bps and 70% for 25bps. Things certainly have changed! You're probably right about gold falling on a 25bps cut. The thing is, we might get a 25bps cut AND the Fed announcing an early end to the balance sheet runoff so gold could still rally in that case. Also, if they hint at a lower rate path going forward gold could take off. The next FOMC meeting will be tough to trade. I'm looking to fade a 50bps cut and bet on 25, but I'll probably trade...Ignored
DislikedI'm not sure how expectations are going to change outside of data, and we only have a couple key data points left prior to the meeting. Advance GDP q/q Core PCE Price Index m/m I don't see the data or evidence that supports a 50 basis point rate cut. 71% think we are getting a 50bp rate cut? Shocking: {image} Additionally, the majority in the market are pricing in 75 basis points lower by the October meeting. {image}...Ignored
DislikedAll in all, i'm not really sure what is happening right now regarding rate cut expectationsIgnored
DislikedThe blackout period is the reason why there is so much risk around this rate cut, there is nearly nothing FED can do to calm the markets, and they might be "forced" into doing a 50bps rate cutIgnored
DislikedI'm looking at data for this rate cut and previous data and i'm asking myself: "How can anyone who knows anything about economics predict a 50bps rate cut!?"... and now a 75 by october?Ignored
Disliked{quote} You and me both! {quote} Very good point. {quote} The data isn't there. Beige book was surprisingly positive this week too. I agree with everything you said. Here's something to consider, remember the Trump-Powell private dinner (no media allowed). That was Feb 4th. Since then there's been a clear pivot. In fact, the very next rate statement 'promised' no more rate hikes in 2019. I know it sounds conspiracy theoryish, but at this point I'm throwing mud at the wall to see what sticks because anything more than a 25bp rate cut hasn't been...Ignored
Disliked[BREAKING NEWS] New York Fed: "Speech Today By PresidentWilliams Was Academic And Based On Research; Was NotAbout Potential Policy Actions At The Upcoming FOMCMeeting" ... what a chance to short sell gold! If the market doesn't go down on this then i don't know what will take it to bring the price down... now i'm certain FED will do a 25bps cut, and this is what they're trying to say to prepare the markets. {quote} I also have a feeling that something happened at that dinner, FED shifted to the other side too fast. It does sound like a conspiracy...Ignored
Disliked[BREAKING NEWS] New York Fed: "Speech Today By PresidentWilliams Was Academic And Based On Research; Was NotAbout Potential Policy Actions At The Upcoming FOMCMeeting" ... what a chance to short sell gold! If the market doesn't go down on this then i don't know what will take it to bring the price down... now i'm certain FED will do a 25bps cut, and this is what they're trying to say to prepare the markets. {quote} I also have a feeling that something happened at that dinner, FED shifted to the other side too fast. It does sound like a conspiracy...Ignored
Disliked{quote} That's just insane... there has never been a market driven by hope as much as this one... I wonder why this is happening from a psychological aspect?Ignored
DislikedWow, he didn't waste any time walking back expectations! Looks like there's still a lot of money to be made fading the 50bps guys. {quote} I think you bring up a good point. The market has a tendency to get caught up in certain sentiment from time to time. I'm not talking about AAII sentiment or something like that, this is a little different. I've seen a few cases where the market just really wants to sell and looks for any reason it can to do so. The ebola panic of 2014 is a great example of this in the stock market. To a lessor extent I think...Ignored
Dislikedit's just silly how people forget to look at facts and start trading by emotions in large quantities... but all i see there is great profit potential for us cold headed traders who know what they're doing.Ignored
Disliked{quote}Half the battle is coming up with a good forecast, the other half is sticking to it no matter how irrational everyone else gets.Ignored