How do you learn to trust yourself in trading? | Page 3 | Metals Mine

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How do you learn to trust yourself in trading?

  • #41
  • Jul 10, 2019 5:15pm Jul 10, 2019 5:15pm
btw I know my advice is useless..
  • #42
  • Jul 10, 2019 6:08pm Jul 10, 2019 6:08pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} But should one be able to give the probability for certain trades.. in advance... then he should just code it in the TE and wait for a billion, trading till it matches the edge (level
I'm assuming you'd need a deep pocket for the probability to work out in the long run but that'd be gambling of course if you had solid data to back it up you'd be able to go to sleep at night but the uncertainty of the future will be there to stay! and nothing beats some proper knowledge of the market as in your words "proper initial conditions and assumptions" !! especially for retailers individual traders.
...
  • #43
  • Jul 10, 2019 6:36pm Jul 10, 2019 6:36pm
Have randomly found this thread after Piquant subscribed. What a glorious piece of humanity . Traders suffer and success is elusive. We think the battle is with the market but after a few rounds we discover the battle is with ourselves and what a devastating realisation that is! I have to say a great personal emotional awareness, empathy, understanding and desire to self develop has come from my trading experiences. To non traders that might sound trite, but trading psychology is like a coward punch that annhilates the unprepared ego, when I thought I was just going to get rich quick. Ha!!! Good luck to everyone crawling along the path of self awareness! Be kind to yourselves, we are all human and fallible!!!
Cheers h
  • #44
  • Jul 10, 2019 7:32pm Jul 10, 2019 7:32pm
We know 1+1=2, we easily and naturally trust this math.

Statistical math says 60% winrate, we know what the probability says but we somehow don't trust it. Deep inside we are not satisfied with 60% that makes worse our trust. Without trust psychological issues manifest, they become relevant.

Aside from math, what else can you trust ?

Some say I trust my non-math method, I have been doing it for umpteen years.

Look deeper at your trust, again. Not your method. Your trust. Your action for umpteen years reflect your trust.

What does your action speak about your trust ?

For comparison, casinos trust their statistical math that gives them their house edge. The owners and banks risk billions of dollars investing upfront their gambling business. That's trust in action.
  • #45
  • Jul 10, 2019 8:16pm Jul 10, 2019 8:16pm
The moment I opened my current trading account I had a working method, had good MM, and psychologically is when I began to trust myself in this business. Had I not been prepared I would have not opened the account. No one should open an account unprepared (although it does happen more often than not). When I don't trust myself is when I forget I already put my trust in myself and in this business. (Those who forget are doomed to repeat is so accurate yet...easily forgotten). Easier said than done, but all great things comes with a hefty price.

In all things one must have balance. Too much and over-reaction (addiction) comes in, too little and indifference happens. This image shows the 3 elements necessary to a successful career in trading. Forex is a balance of all three, 100% of each of its components.

See the balance?
Attached Image
Invest in Life
  • #46
  • Jul 10, 2019 8:28pm Jul 10, 2019 8:28pm
Good idea for a thread
  • #47
  • Jul 10, 2019 11:34pm Jul 10, 2019 11:34pm
When you really understand how to trade...when to enter..when you will exit...and you have been successful. Then....and only then.....will you trust yourself. This won't happen overnight or without pain. It takes time.
  • #48
  • Jul 11, 2019 9:02am Jul 11, 2019 9:02am
Quoting Lunartrader9
When you really understand how to trade...when to enter..when you will exit...and you have been successful. Then....and only then.....will you trust yourself. This won't happen overnight or without pain. It takes time.
Curiously, after more than 12 years the balance between leverage/pp value/price acceleration is still not mastered

Inserted Video


Takes years to become the master of your own destiny and soar the unlimited skies
A new consciousness for Humanity?
Being now: Are WE a Holy Grail? Return Today: na
  • #49
  • Jul 11, 2019 1:07pm Jul 11, 2019 1:07pm
It's normal when you lose trust sometimes, especially during draw down periods, it's not something easy like "think positively" or "grind hard", the internal struggle is real. Try to make peace with yourself, in times of uncertainly, do back tests of your system to give yourself a confidence boost, learn to meditate more and be aware of your emotions.

Make peace with your emotions, and learn to face it.
  • #50
  • Jul 11, 2019 2:09pm Jul 11, 2019 2:09pm
Also, what we should define here is the RELATIVE trust to trades not the overall confidence (in life).
So what are you (OP) have real issue with... Overall trust/confidence in life? Because trading certainly challenge whatever trust/confidence you might have elsewhere... it can still crush you, that is a normal process, where the confidence/trust would really come into play is how/if (soon) do you recover from it.

In trading, most of the time if not always.. we have MIRROR confidence/emotion chart, meaning that be afraid of VERY HAPPY winners, very ecstatic ones that jump all over the places, screaming.... ONCE/WHEN they do WIN.... be afraid of them ONCE they do lose... They will be desperate, completely down, angry... or even... sui....
The best traders, I (among many) FEEL NOTHING... They do not have emotions at all, just TRADE... when they trade are in the zone... Even this confidence or whatever.. is useless... they just TRADE.... but they might involve themselves, emotions and all... AT THE ANALYSIS...

Traders should be ROBOTs in my book Emotions are devastating... If you are exposed emotionaly/personaly... and put confidence/trust in the market... you might get crushed...

And as I love relevant clips...

Here is the universal confidence in life that MIGHT help even in trading (should you be exposed - no pun See here co**fidence
Very good speech, can be applied here also...
Inserted Video
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #51
  • Jul 12, 2019 1:01pm Jul 12, 2019 1:01pm
Excellent thread! I think this really gets into the realm of epistemology. Most people accept empiricism so if you have a winning demo track record or your system is backtesting well you could probably trust yourself on that basis. However, individuals such as Karl Popper wouldn't accept evidence as truth alone and logically wouldn't be susceptible to certain pitfalls (ie black swans) where you're assuming a future outcome will take place based on past outcomes. The end result with Popper is you can never really be sure of anything. George Soros, who in my opinion is the greatest trader of all time, has been an outspoken proponent of Popper so I take him pretty seriously...

I think the best approach is somewhere between the two. You need empirical evidence that shows your system has an edge and its rational to trade based upon it, but you need the humility to accept that you may not really have an edge and one day it will quit working. Martingale, for example, works great until it fails spectacularly. Same story with options selling.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #52
  • Jul 12, 2019 11:04pm Jul 12, 2019 11:04pm
Quoting Ef5
Excellent thread! I think this really gets into the realm of epistemology. Most people accept empiricism so if you have a winning demo track record or your system is backtesting well you could probably trust yourself on that basis. However, individuals such as Karl Popper wouldn't accept evidence as truth alone and logically wouldn't be susceptible to certain pitfalls (ie black swans) where you're assuming a future outcome will take place based on past outcomes. The end result with Popper is you can never really be sure of anything. George Soros,...

I kinda agree.. for instance if I'm a trend follower it's because I assume, yes ASSUME that the market will be trending in the future, because it was trending in the past. it's just assumptions, but as human beings we can only assume.. in reality everything is possible.
  • #53
  • Edited Jul 13, 2019 4:47pm Jul 12, 2019 11:35pm | Edited Jul 13, 2019 4:47pm
Now the difference between "bad" assumptions and "good" assumptions is that good assumptions are based on statistics.. I mean actual statistics, which tells you what's most likely to happen (aka prediction). cheers
  • #54
  • Jul 14, 2019 8:32am Jul 14, 2019 8:32am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I kinda agree.. for instance if I'm a trend follower it's because I assume, yes ASSUME that the market will be trending in the future, because it was trending in the past. it's just assumptions, but as human beings we can only assume.. in reality everything is possible.
Well yeah, but sometimes assumptions can last (longer) than a lifetime, so from one's life perspective "he/she was right"... The biggest problem that I observed (and am observing again) was in the real estate market... because the market went UP for one lifetime... and if anyone said that there will be downtrend, even temporary, people laughed their asses off. But when the decline (bubble/debt burst) did happen, it was THE BANKS, the conspiracy etc... Then government intervened with massive stimuluses, bailouts, burning billions like they were 100EUR... to somewhat correct/stabilise the market... and now we are back... pumping balloon again, like nothing happened, until the next p(o)op

But yeah, "Assumptions are the root of all evil".. as they say...

Many formulas, derivations, trading patterns or even business plan(s) are PERFECt... if derived from one simple/basic assumption. Should you remove it... it all go into the toilet
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #55
  • Jul 15, 2019 1:53am Jul 15, 2019 1:53am
Back on topic..... you lost trust in yourself after being wrong so many times.... don't worry, it's not that you are a failure... it's that trading amplifies our weaknesses therefore it's much easier to make mistakes. the only thing to do again is to pay attention to our thoughts / emotions / feelings - constantly.. this way we get rid of the weak tendencies and gain wisdom. I cannot say that I'm wise as I still have some bad habits ... but certainly I'm making wiser decisions than 5 years ago. I also feel always happy no matter what.
  • #56
  • Jul 15, 2019 6:40am Jul 15, 2019 6:40am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Hey mate, first things first please understand in a long run view seldom few make money here... all this shit you have happening EVERYONE can relate. The market is a vindictive bitch.. but that said there is a way around your problem. This is a business... you cant really judge a business day to day trade to trade. Every business is different but broadly speaking your goal is to end up with a profit... monthly, quarterly, yearly ... expand your view first and foremost.. so second to that a business has running costs, in trading terms these...
Awesome post! This is a very important lesson to learn. There's no way around not having losing trades. The focus should be on having more winners than losers over time. A strong strategy, ALWAYS sticking to your trading rules, and a good money management system for account growth over time can achieve this imo. Again, thx for the post , we all need to hear this at times.
  • #57
  • Jul 15, 2019 3:41pm Jul 15, 2019 3:41pm
Quoting charlieb410
{quote} Awesome post! This is a very important lesson to learn. There's no way around not having losing trades. The focus should be on having more winners than losers over time. A strong strategy, ALWAYS sticking to your trading rules, and a good money management system for account growth over time can achieve this imo. Again, thx for the post , we all need to hear this at times.
I would expand this a little futher... In the endgame only ABSOLUTE return counts... There are certain strategies that have relatively LOW win-rate.. but the overall outcome/picture is MONEY (profit) at the bank This win-rate is very poorly understood... Also there are BURNERS.... where you have to FORGET previous attempts...
Just SET and FORGET... otherwise it might kill you (if you lose So it means that if you "burn" 9x100USD... and the 10th burner gives you awesome profits... outweigting all the previous loses, attempts... it is worth it... This is basicaly universal rule... "life is a numbers game" as they call it... You have people... afraid of doing something, talking to a girl/guy... opening a company... but reality is that many people FAILED miserably before they won... Something like this..
https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/m..._jordan_127660 and Arnold gives this FAILURE is PART of the success speech over and over again... Prepare to be a complete failure... than you might start winning I can give you examples in any area... Venture capitalist or business angels or whatever... are one of the smartest people for business there is... but they know absolutely that they will BURN the capital in like 80% or more no matter what they do... but the rest 10-20%... makes it worthwhile.. Same as women... you might get rejected 99times... the 100th worth it... And yes, trading... so what how many times you fail... if you HIT the WINNING WAVE once! and it rides you right to the OCEANFRONT Of course, the second component would be knowing when to STOP.. if you made it there with luck.... very hard to extract the juice from luck.. but that is the topic from another thread
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #58
  • Jul 15, 2019 4:13pm Jul 15, 2019 4:13pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} I would expand this a little futher... In the endgame only ABSOLUTE return counts... There are certain strategies that have relatively LOW win-rate.. but the overall outcome/picture is MONEY (profit) at the bank This win-rate is very poorly understood... Also there are BURNERS.... where you have to FORGET previous attempts... Just SET and FORGET... otherwise it might kill you (if you lose So it means that if you "burn" 9x100USD... and the 10th burner gives you awesome profits... outweigting all the previous loses,...
I like that line: you can lose 8/9 trades in 10 and still end up winning, in the eventuality of course that the 8/9 trades are micro losses and the one winning makes it all worthwhile....
A new consciousness for Humanity?
Being now: Are WE a Holy Grail? Return Today: na
  • #59
  • Jul 15, 2019 6:04pm Jul 15, 2019 6:04pm
The key to success is not risk and reward but investing when the probability of the market going your way is the higher than against you. Risk management without the probability in your favour is useless.
When you see it, BET big.
  • #60
  • Jul 16, 2019 8:35pm Jul 16, 2019 8:35pm
A head full of fears has no room for dreams.
Eliminate fear is necessary
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