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  • #201
  • Jul 5, 2019 4:02am Jul 5, 2019 4:02am
Here are the 40- and 15-year seasonal patterns of GOLD.

Sixer
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  • #202
  • Jul 5, 2019 8:21am Jul 5, 2019 8:21am
Right now (1 hr after NFP) it appears my shorts weren't such a terrible idea after all. Of course I'm wanting this sell off to continue, but it appears selling has run into a strong area of buying from earlier this week.
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I guess we'll have to wait until the end of the day to see how this turns out...we are 10 min from NY open
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  • #203
  • Jul 5, 2019 11:42am Jul 5, 2019 11:42am
Quoting Sixer
Here are the 40- and 15-year seasonal patterns of GOLD. Sixer {image}
Where did you get that image? I'd like to read more about the seasonal nature of gold.
If you have faith in our leaders of commerce, don't buy gold.
  • #204
  • Jul 5, 2019 11:57am Jul 5, 2019 11:57am
Here is the source of the picture:

https://kingworldnews.com/its-like-m...ut-to-trigger/

If you want to know more about seasonal patterns, check this link from Dimitri Speck:

https://seasonalcharts.de/classics_gold.html
https://seasonalcharts.de/Indices.html

Sixer
  • #205
  • Jul 5, 2019 12:11pm Jul 5, 2019 12:11pm
Quoting 676f6c64
{quote} Where did you get that image? I'd like to read more about the seasonal nature of gold.
The Thinkorswim platform has a seasonality chart type if you happen to use them:

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If not, you might like to review some of the seasonality charts I posted here.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #206
  • Jul 5, 2019 1:06pm Jul 5, 2019 1:06pm
Thanks Sixer and EF5 for those links, time to do some reading
  • #207
  • Jul 5, 2019 1:23pm Jul 5, 2019 1:23pm
Gold bulls need to get pass the 1400 handle to revive any hopes.
If you want in on my experimental EA, PM me.
  • #208
  • Jul 5, 2019 1:57pm Jul 5, 2019 1:57pm
Right now I'm looking at equities rally (top left) and wondering if gold (bottom right) will decide to follow. Would be nice to see bonds (top right) tick higher...

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Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #209
  • Jul 6, 2019 1:19pm Jul 6, 2019 1:19pm
Quoting Ef5
Right now I'm looking at equities rally (top left) and wondering if gold (bottom right) will decide to follow. Would be nice to see bonds (top right) tick higher... {image}
Nice view. That's futures volume below the chart, right? Looks super heavy on the downside, and light on the rebound. In my book that would signal a lower Sunday open.
  • #210
  • Jul 6, 2019 2:07pm Jul 6, 2019 2:07pm
Quoting Goat
{quote} Nice view. That's futures volume below the chart, right? Looks super heavy on the downside, and light on the rebound. In my book that would signal a lower Sunday open.
Thanks! I like to keep an eye on the different major asset classes. Usually they tell the same story, but occasionally one will diverge which makes things interesting.

You're right, that is futures volume. Good observation about it being so heavy to the downside and light on the rebound. The strong NFP number was kind of a game changer so I'm guessing a lot of managers repositioned throughout the morning and then we got a little rebound from day traders covering their shorts in the afternoon. If that's the case it makes sense that we might have more downside at the start of the week assuming some portfolio managers still need to adjust (which seems likely considering a lot of people took off on Friday.)
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #211
  • Jul 8, 2019 10:55am Jul 8, 2019 10:55am
Right now...it appears selling is continuing after the NFP announcement a the end of last week. Major selling at the highs of today's price action and weaker selling at the lows. While today is (and usually is after NFP) somewhat subdued, I expect selling may continue and push price down the challenge the lows set last friday. From there it will be very interesting to see what happens. I suspect more buying may ensue as we are now in a firmly established and "stable" range that is forming the top of an even larger range. AND>>> as we are now entering the "summer doldrums" price may not move with any conviction one way or another until the next Fed meeting scheduled for the end of July. I would characterize price right now as "drifting"...I may end up closing some of my less profitable position at the lows of this range, to create a better position.
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  • #212
  • Jul 8, 2019 5:42pm Jul 8, 2019 5:42pm
Gold right now seem to be tied to the USD trend which I believe is going slowly (but surely; I speculate) UP... for the summer at least...
Also some better NEWS/DATA from US would seem to indicate maybe no CUTs or if so.. canceled (neutralised) out by ECB cuts...
Also the PERSIAN situation seems the same like before, many threats and cockfighting but in the end of the day... same ol same ol..
And don't get me start mentioning about EU(R) So I would not be buying gold for this week, just to see the bigger/cleaner picture..
Would buy it to hold, as always... I'd much prefer to SHORT it, but not to aggressively

However! I would hold this theory for the week.. Things got delayed some time.. but the vital controlling parameter in my price prediction model would seem to be ON (green light) within 2 days... than I would/will re-test it for the rest of the week, 3 remaining days (10-12JUL) and draw/conclude/bet on the (down)trend for the rest of the summer and maybe a little more (10OCT19) or so
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #213
  • Edited Jul 9, 2019 1:16pm Jul 8, 2019 7:00pm | Edited Jul 9, 2019 1:16pm
In my modest technical analyses I see the following:

As log as 1380 is a confirmed support level, I continue buying....



1400 seems, still a strong psychological ceiling?

We'll see the coming hours?

Tomorrow?
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  • #214
  • Jul 9, 2019 9:09am Jul 9, 2019 9:09am
Once again...Right now...Gold is just sitting there...looking bright and shiny with lots of buyers...yet price does not rise? This still confounds me...but it appears (and I won't know this for sure until the end of the day) another "order flow inversion" is taking place. And if this is so at the end of the day's trading I'm thinking a stable range is in place and may close my shorts...mostly in profit however small.
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  • #215
  • Jul 9, 2019 10:15am Jul 9, 2019 10:15am
Quoting DonPato
Once again...Right now...Gold is just sitting there...looking bright and shiny with lots of buyers...yet price does not rise? This still confounds me...but it appears (and I won't know this for sure until the end of the day) another "order flow inversion" is taking place. And if this is so at the end of the day's trading I'm thinking a stable range is in place and may close my shorts...mostly in profit however small. {image}
Buying pressure finally overcame the hurdle but 1400 had a big stop sign apparently

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  • #216
  • Jul 9, 2019 1:09pm Jul 9, 2019 1:09pm
Right now, I think the markets want to see what Powell has to say tomorrow morning before committing to a direction. If he hints at no rate cut, watch out below for gold.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #217
  • Jul 9, 2019 3:03pm Jul 9, 2019 3:03pm
Quoting Ef5
Right now, I think the markets want to see what Powell has to say tomorrow morning before committing to a direction. If he hints at no rate cut, watch out below for gold.
Precisely.. They are much more cautious however I think this CUT deal has to be dealt asap, this STALL is unbearable... But either way, not to repeat myself...
USD should go slowly UP for the summer, according to various factors.... Of course if they CUT (massively) this will have a big effect, at least shorterm.. but that would mean that we could expect much harder (reality) check after it runs out of FAKE stimuli... as I call this CUTS... Those kinds of economic "measures" are just like drugs.. I specially like comparison to CRACK... The consequences are disastrous in the long-run....

So I hope they do not cut (at least not beyond what ECB is plan to follow/copy) or there might really disturb the whole economy->world, in the longrun.... the withdrawal phase could be messy..
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #218
  • Jul 9, 2019 4:09pm Jul 9, 2019 4:09pm
Quoting Ef5
Right now, I think the markets want to see what Powell has to say tomorrow morning before committing to a direction. If he hints at no rate cut, watch out below for gold.
The risky side of me wants to set up some stops/limits ahead of that
  • #219
  • Jul 9, 2019 7:21pm Jul 9, 2019 7:21pm
Quoting camvcvoo
{quote} It's one of those Harmonic Patterns once confirmed, likelyhood of bearish momentum is expected. Green pips to all. Cheers.
I'm curious about harmonic patterns, but haven't read enough about them. Any suggested materials?
  • #220
  • Jul 9, 2019 9:23pm Jul 9, 2019 9:23pm
Right now, gold seems to be selling off a little big after the SHFE open. Although I would be cautious. We might stay in a relatively tight range leading up to Powell's testimony. Here's a look at gold since the Sunday open:
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