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Tariffs, trade war, and gold

  • #41
  • Jun 10, 2019 4:07am Jun 10, 2019 4:07am
Gold on shorter term technical chart, looks to have broken below its most current rising trendline and appears to be headed to test its breakout level of 1313.

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  • #42
  • Jun 10, 2019 10:01am Jun 10, 2019 10:01am
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Looks like I got the "FU Stop" on Gold. I still have one position running that is at break even so, I have moved my limit out a little bit higher and will hold onto this position as long as I can. If we do get a retrace I will try to add in when I see the order flow change again. For now, it looks like buyers just "pooped out".
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  • #43
  • Jun 10, 2019 10:51am Jun 10, 2019 10:51am
Looks like Trump is still holding new tarrifs over the head of the Mexican Government if he is not "satisfied" with the efforts or the results.
https://globalnews.ca/news/5371138/t...threat-mexico/

There is no end in sight!! Unless the Mexican Goverment stands up to this dictator (Trump) there will be no end in sight. The irony is this: Who pays the tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration? Answer: US consumers who purchase Mexican Goods. Not Mexicans...Not the Mexican Government. US consumers. So again I repeat...How does raising the price on (anything) imported from Mexico resolve the issue of uncontrolled migration??? This is just plain STUPID!!

The ONLY thing that will keep a mass of people from crossing an imaginary line between countries is this: One side must be able to declare and follow through on a lethal force policy for anyone caught crossing the border illegally. Summarily shoot all illegal and unsanctioned border crossings...That is the only thing that will stop masses of people from simply walking where ever they want in defiance of orders to the contrary.

Of course that will never happen...thus, this issue will not be resolved by diplomacy, threats, tariffs, or any other of the many politician's "forked tongued" approaches.

Meanwhile this "shoot from the hip" bluster, bullying approach causes havoc for any of the rest of us law abiding citizen trying to make a living and live in peace. That includes those who leave their lifetime home to find something better.
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  • #44
  • Jun 11, 2019 9:37am Jun 11, 2019 9:37am
Quoting EventsTrader
{quote} Did you end up holding on to gold over the weekend? Hope not! Trump says the US has ‘indefinitely suspended’ planned tariffs against Mexico after reaching a deal
i was stopped out and don't wanna talk about it no more.

i was out of town and allowed myself to ignore the news and didn't even care to sign on when markets opened on monday.. anyway, back at it.
Keep It Simple With Sentiment (KISWS) - Trade and Profit like the Pros!
  • #45
  • Jun 11, 2019 10:52pm Jun 11, 2019 10:52pm
Quoting perma-bull
{quote} i was stopped out and don't wanna talk about it no more. i was out of town and allowed myself to ignore the news and didn't even care to sign on when markets opened on monday.. anyway, back at it.
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We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #46
  • Jun 12, 2019 8:34am Jun 12, 2019 8:34am
Quoting DonPato
There is no end in sight!!
that basically sums up my trading style - i try to figure out what headlines will move gold, pick a general direction, and go. in this case, i don't see much investor relief when it comes to the mexico and china situation. they can't seem to make a deal (although it might happen with mexico.) this makes it a bull market so i'm too scared to short (unless it's for a demo competition).

when it comes to what actually happens - idgaf about the outcome other then how i can make money from it. probably a little irresponsible as a citizen of a country but what can i change other than how i can provide for my family. i don't feel like raising my blood pressure for the idiots in control.
Keep It Simple With Sentiment (KISWS) - Trade and Profit like the Pros!
  • #47
  • Jun 12, 2019 10:07am Jun 12, 2019 10:07am
Quoting perma-bull
... i don't feel like raising my blood pressure for the idiots in control.
Amen brother!! I've had very little luck trying to use news report to guide my trading. I make note of them, of course and then I watch the order flow to see what happens. However, trading based on just the report has been very disastrous for me. In fact I shorted the USD/MXN the day after the news announcement that sent the Peso plummeting. The position is currently up 500 pips and the USD/MXN is right back to where the stupidness started to begin with. In fact as I write this...I think I'm going to pull 1/2 of that position off the table right now.

Bottom line: I am terrible about 'divining' what the market will do in the light of "fundamental" news announcements. I've found that the order-flow/volume keeps me centered on the moment of "right now" and I can take appropriate action, understanding that each "now moment" leads me inextricably into the future.
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  • #48
  • Jun 12, 2019 11:37am Jun 12, 2019 11:37am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Amen brother!! I've had very little luck trying to use news report to guide my trading. I make note of them, of course and then I watch the order flow to see what happens. However, trading based on just the report has been very disastrous for me. In fact I shorted the USD/MXN the day after the news announcement that sent the Peso plummeting. The position is currently up 500 pips and the USD/MXN is right back to where the stupidness started to begin with. In fact as I write this...I think I'm going to pull 1/2 of that position off the table...
yeah you seem to have a good style that you can manage well! hats off to you! one day i'll nail it down a little more but for now i'm flying by the seat of my pants
Keep It Simple With Sentiment (KISWS) - Trade and Profit like the Pros!
  • #49
  • Jun 12, 2019 11:49am Jun 12, 2019 11:49am
Quoting perma-bull
{quote} yeah you seem to have a good style that you can manage well! hats off to you! one day i'll nail it down a little more but for now i'm flying by the seat of my pants
Thank you for the kind words...There is something to be said for "seat of your pants" trading...there are some who pull it off very well, it is a natural ability. I'd say just be careful that the market doesn't rip your seat out...and a part of what's there along with it.
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  • #50
  • Jun 12, 2019 1:37pm Jun 12, 2019 1:37pm
Quoting DonPato
I've found that the order-flow/volume keeps me centered on the moment of "right now" and I can take appropriate action, understanding that each "now moment" leads me inextricably into the future.
DonPato, thanks for the perspective. As a part time / newbie that has been using gut related to news, this method seems intriguing but time-consuming - monitoring in real time. What volume or flow triggers do you use to identify your opportunities? When I have been trading a little forex it seemed to work pretty well. With metals I am finding my intuition is harder to use and the $$ is bigger.
If in doubt, paddle out!
  • #51
  • Jun 12, 2019 2:09pm Jun 12, 2019 2:09pm
Quoting SurfsUp
... What volume or flow triggers do you use to identify your opportunities? ...
I use "signs and symptoms" of exhaustion in one direction to put me into a position going the other way. Some call this "swing" trading, but I don't like to refer to it that way. It has taken me several years of research and pulling my hair out to finally find something (read order flow) that consistently works for me.

This is difficult to explain because most of us in these thread are what I term "technicians". They use a technical analysis approach coupled with probability/math studies to trade the premise being: If it wins more than it losses, and each winner is larger than each loser, then the mathematical odds of making money are "certain". Any of us who have used this approach know this is a fallacy that has come to us mostly from gambling. The difference between "games of chance" and the market is that there are rules in gambling for which the game is played...in the market there are NO rules (other than those you impose on yourself). There is NO rule that tells you that after a certain amount of wins a loss is more probable, or the contrary...after a certain amount of losses a win is more probable. Utter nonsense!!

Markets are created, made, and participated in by PEOPLE, who almost all universally react the same way in certain situations. While they may have different belief structures, or rely on different modalities to determine their actions, they still MUST interact with the markets in the same way...by placing orders.

World wide or within a certain markets, these orders are processed by a computerized mechanism called "the market". Once one understand how this process works, it becomes obvious when the dominant order flow in one direction (selling for instance) begins to exhaust as price drops lower and lower. Once there is no one left to sell, the order selling order flow will stop...and buying will come in. Its really as simple as that.

But one must learn (mostly by trial and error) what that LOOKS LIKE on a chart. I hope this explanation helps...sorry the long winded reply
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  • #52
  • Jun 18, 2019 8:08am Jun 18, 2019 8:08am
https://www.metalsmine.com/news/9251...nium-stockpile
june 27 - add that to the list which includes mexico/us immigration friction, and china tariff friction, also maybe with some eu tariff friction.

trump's been rather quiet lately so i'd think something's brewing... news will come soon.
Keep It Simple With Sentiment (KISWS) - Trade and Profit like the Pros!
  • #53
  • Jun 18, 2019 8:48am Jun 18, 2019 8:48am
Quoting perma-bull
... trump's been rather quiet lately so i'd think something's brewing... news will come soon.
You were right!! He let go just a little bit ago: https://www.metalsmine.com/news/9255...h-president-xi

DOW futures have advanced over 200 pts

Gold just spiked to catch those "break out" traders...and triggered me short
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  • #54
  • Jun 18, 2019 9:03am Jun 18, 2019 9:03am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} You were right!! He let go just a little bit ago: https://www.metalsmine.com/news/9255...h-president-xi DOW futures have advanced over 200 pts Gold just spiked to catch those "break out" traders...and triggered me short {image}
there goes my long!! wow the timing!!
Keep It Simple With Sentiment (KISWS) - Trade and Profit like the Pros!
  • #55
  • Jun 18, 2019 9:13am Jun 18, 2019 9:13am
Quoting perma-bull
there goes my long!! wow the timing!!
I feel your pain!! For a long time I wanted to write a book entitled: Short - the sure way to make prices rise!
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  • #56
  • Jun 20, 2019 12:14am Jun 20, 2019 12:14am
Trump brought prices roaring back tonight. Not with China news but with threats to kick Powell out of his chair.

Are there enough potential ticking time bombs to have a LT bullish gold sentiment right now? I think so.
careful not to step in a pile of it
  • #57
  • Jul 1, 2019 1:50pm Jul 1, 2019 1:50pm
Quoting bulltrap
Trump brought prices roaring back tonight.
And roaring back down with all this white-dove, friendship-circle, kumbaiah-campfire talk with China
If you have faith in our leaders of commerce, don't buy gold.
  • #58
  • Jul 1, 2019 11:36pm Jul 1, 2019 11:36pm
Quoting 676f6c64
{quote} And roaring back down with all this white-dove, friendship-circle, kumbaiah-campfire talk with China
Its still a long road between now and having a deal in ink. Even after the USMCA deal was agreed upon, Trump nearly implemented new tariffs against Mexico over immigration.
Self-sufficiency is the greatest of all wealth. - Epicurus
  • #59
  • Jul 6, 2019 6:57pm Jul 6, 2019 6:57pm
Just read this story: https://www.metalsmine.com/news/9303...repare-for-the

Trade negotiations are restarting, no new additional tariffs, and Huawei issue has been de-escalated.... for now. Makes it kinda boring if you're trading Trump.
Keep It Simple With Sentiment (KISWS) - Trade and Profit like the Pros!
  • #60
  • Jul 10, 2019 9:39pm Jul 10, 2019 9:39pm
US may impose tariffs on French goods to protect tech firms - seems like positive news for gold.
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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