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  • #941
  • May 30, 2019 1:10pm May 30, 2019 1:10pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Fact is: Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers.
Fact is: blackjack is a negative sum game.

It is also a fact, that a skilled card counter can turn the edge to his favor by being opportunistic and by dynamic betting.
The counting itself is not the most difficult part, the key itself if keeping a disciplined approach.
A card counter cant really sit on the sideline to wait for the right opportunity window to come; need to bet every single hand.
A retail trader have the luxury to watch the "cards come and go", but does he/she has the discipline to wait for the right opportunity, and 'bet' as required for the specific situation?

Most people go to casino, and play.
Even though they know the odds are against them.
Winning isnt the first and foremost importance, they go for the fun, the thrill, or just to not be home.
Most "traders" arent into forex for winning.
Deep down anyone knows that 20$ or 100$ or even 1000$ wont take one very far, and even 10% return would be pocket money, if at all cover the withdrawal cost on a small account.
But winning is not the first and foremost importance, they "trade" forex for the fun, the thrill or to have something to moan on a forum and feel that belong somewhere.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #942
  • May 30, 2019 11:45pm May 30, 2019 11:45pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} This is a very basic economic question.... so if you don't get the difference, but you are trading Forex, it's kind of shocking to me. People are buying fish to cover their essential need for daily nutrition Product chain A fisher or fish farmer earns his daily bread by raising/catching fish A second worker by preparing them to be sold / packaging A thrid one has made and delivered the fridge to cool them till sold A fourth one is doing the transport to wholemarket A fifth one selling from whole market to retail grocers Retail grocer sells...
"Fact is: Retail forex is a negative sum game for losers."

I used this wholesale/retail as basis for my argument. You laid out a fine example of all the businesses that depend on the next customer in the chain. And each business in this chain, 95% will fail before 10 years in business

Trading is a business, whether forex, bonds, stocks, metals, or beans (soybeans). Most businesses will fail, so singling out forex (whether cash or futures) seems like sour grapes.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #943
  • May 31, 2019 12:07am May 31, 2019 12:07am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Fact is: blackjack is a negative sum game. It is also a fact, that a skilled card counter can turn the edge to his favor by being opportunistic and by dynamic betting. The counting itself is not the most difficult part, the key itself if keeping a disciplined approach. A card counter cant really sit on the sideline to wait for the right opportunity window to come; need to bet every single hand. A retail trader have the luxury to watch the "cards come and go", but does he/she has the discipline to wait for the right opportunity, and 'bet'...
Excellent post why trading is NOT like a casino. You don't have to put your money down BEFORE you know what cards are dealt.

In trading, we have the cards dealt before we trade. So anyone who has tested trading strategy can take money from the untested as well as the movers who are providing liquidity.

The gamblers place orders 5 minutes before NFP, the wise speculator places orders 15 minutes after NFP. But these poor sods, the gamblers and get rich quick type, would do same thing in business, start business before doing market research.

Human nature does not change.

Excellent post, PF
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #944
  • Jun 4, 2019 9:57am Jun 4, 2019 9:57am
Quoting profitfarmer
{quote} Fact is: blackjack is a negative sum game. ....
Fact is.... if you are counting cards and only place bets where risk/reward is in your favour, it's not a negative sum game. You are getting a mathematical edge... by the way card counting times are over....

If you think you can count cards within retail forex - good luck. If you are trading based on prediction - good luck.
All scientific data shows beyond the slightest doubt that retail forex is a negative game for losers.

Yes, there is an entertainment factor.... and yes, if you sell the whole thing like it is, no problem. But the whole industry sells it based on epic lies...and an industry that sells their products based on lies, will never ever play fair with their customers.
  • #945
  • Jun 4, 2019 11:44am Jun 4, 2019 11:44am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Fact is.... if you are counting cards and only place bets where risk/reward is in your favour, it's not a negative sum game. You are getting a mathematical edge... by the way card counting times are over.... If you think you can count cards within retail forex - good luck. If you are trading based on prediction - good luck. All scientific data shows beyond the slightest doubt that retail forex is a negative game for losers. Yes, there is an entertainment factor.... and yes, if you sell the whole thing like it is, no problem. But the whole...
did you read the whole post or the first sentence only?
cos there was the same thing said you try to tell, as fact is...LOL

anyway,
you are entitled to your opinion what forex is or isnt,
and you may well be right too...
but that begs the question:
why are you still wasting your time on a forex forum???
is that the entertainment factor?
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #946
  • Edited 12:51pm Jun 4, 2019 12:36pm | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Fact is.... if you are counting cards and only place bets where risk/reward is in your favour, it's not a negative sum game. You are getting a mathematical edge... by the way card counting times are over.... If you think you can count cards within retail forex - good luck. If you are trading based on prediction - good luck. All scientific data shows beyond the slightest doubt that retail forex is a negative game for losers. Yes, there is an entertainment factor.... and yes, if you sell the whole thing like it is, no problem. But the...
More and more traders are finally recognizing the fact that the entire industry is based on false and manipulated lies.

"why are you still wasting your time on a forex forum" - pure entertainment...... and 100% to kill my boredom at work when I work from home! And to show the so-called 'profitable' traders/scammers/educators where they belong....

There are not many left out here who can hold a savvy conversation without name calling and bitching over stupid nonsensical shit. Just standard regurgitated shit is what we read over and over!

And, The title of this thread is "can you make money as a trader?" - my response is ABSOLUTELY Yes! But how much is the real question we must ask! It takes YEARS and over a decade for most to eventually yield some return on their effort. so one must factor in their return from day one all the incredibly long hours required to make a decent profit. When you measure this way, a guy flipping burgers is way better off than majority of FX traders in the retail industry.
Am I net profitable since 2006? - YES.
How much profitable? over 250% of total deposits
What is my hourly rate of return since 2006.... it's literally in pennies per hour!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Worst rate of return even for those who are net profitable.
Staying in my lane...
  • #947
  • Edited 1:40pm Jun 4, 2019 12:47pm | Edited 1:40pm
Well... we should also look what all the famous financial/trading movies are trying to sell us, without exceptions...
You have to have something BEYOND..., if you want to have the consistent edge otherwise the market adapts, fast.

Look at the most popular financial movies that some traders were so inspired by, me included

Wall Street (1987) - good understanding of markets, how markets works and all.. but THE BASE was INSIDE trading...
You still have to have the knowledge to know what to do with it, that is why Gordon Gekko was so good at it, he had the info and know how to manage/exploit it.
You can give info to some people outside of industry.. and they might still blow the house over it or massively under-harvest the profits

Wall Street - Money Never Sleeps (2010)... CREDIT bubble then all went BUST.. except this time Gordon Gekko seemed to know which stocks to pick.. but again, he had 100mio to start with and after the crash, rolling the cash snowball (buying lows) seems to be pretty straightforward, but you still have to have the knowledge to not make some vital mistake (buying worthless things, entering in a bad contract etc..)

Boiler Room (2000) - Chop shop pump and dump... and selling hopes and dreams

*The Pursuit of Happyness - selling/pushing stocks.. if I remember correctly..

Trading Places (1983) - inside trading

Margin Call (2011) - credit bubble, (over)leveraging, (over)selling, (fire)selling

Madoff (2016) - (played by Drew Gregory - by far better than De Niro version, if you ask me) - ponzi; he was surprise himself how far it went... he believes they knew (or should) what was going but just loved to ride the profit wave... in fact he states in the movie that "some" countries are build like his scheme, which one... you should look for yourselves.

Enron - serious manipulation (closing down electric plants to generate price spike etc...; just to name a few)

Pretty Woman (1990) - not remembering it well, but corporate raiding? (you had to already have big money to make money by buying whole and selling by pieces)

Arbitrage (2012)... cooked books

Wolf of Wall street (2013) - fugazi

Rogue Trader (1999) - fake profits, cooked books

Billions - TV series 2016... similar to Gekko... very realistic show btw, almost too much

The bottom line is... All of them shows you either had to have BIG MONEY to make (more) money... or to CHEAT (technical exploit, legal exploit, manipulate markets) etc... And if you know ANY movie that shows one poor trader that gets to massive money, repeatably/teachably/legally by maybe reading books, please let me know.. I either haven't crossed one or had a strong amnesia about it But even though those were the basis of real money generation, they still TRADED real trades along the way, they just had this help on the side I mean Gekko didn't just INSIDE trade, he made real trades too... Buying real estate building, resale it... Riding the real estate bubble etc... He had a good market feel for innovation (mini TV, electronic blood pressure) and future trends... But "THE JUICE" was what it was

So SURE THINGS are inside info, manipulation or cheats, other is pretty much chaotic which means some things seem to happen some of the time. I think this is a fair deal... To take into an account that you seemed to find some EDGE in the market that might not last so exploit it while you can. This is maybe the reason why we don't see 100% returns per year, 10years in a row... I think many traders do have edge, but markets do change. Anyway, I think the FBI has the formula that if some "fund" etc has more than 10% profit per year (consistently)... it is most probably a ponzi scheme and they start to investigate

As I have already explained in some other posts.. if you would "know" how to make 20PIPs per day... (within 20PIP SL) for example... that seemed to be "max" risk:reward ratio for many here... you could afford 500:1 with 10% stop/margin; 90% return per trade... and if you can make 40 wins in a row (40 days)... can I please stake you with 100EUR/USD so we can both be TRILLIONAIRES after 40 trading days ? This calculation alone should be either proof that CONSISTENT errorless EDGE is impossible... or someone doesn't know he is sitting on WEALTH OF THE WORLD or is super stealthy/secret https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=100*1.9%5E40

I currently believe in CHAOTIC edge.. in a way that edge/knowledge do exist but works (only) in some conditions or at some timeframe, not all the time..
that is why It is essential to know the golden rule of knowing "when not to trade".

I mean is there any movie, apart of the "The Bank (2001) - that had different plot holes" that actually says that you can actually learn to earn money in the stock markets.. by trading? Corporate raiding seems also be straight forward, mergers etc... But for REAL trading.. there basically are no schools, no guarantees. The sad thing is that you have to be in this business for 20+ years to realise simple truths. Everything is a risk.
There were some tricks, still are maybe, when people where exploiting technical delays when placing orders etc.. but as soon as that becomes too big, brokers use the latency arbitrage, close liquidity, put you in manual execution, reverse your trades or ban you for life

The best combination it seems that you know the markets, the economy/economics can help (or be ignorant at the right place, time... can be profitable also) and to get some sort of edge. The most str8 forward seems to be INSIDES or CHEATS of some sort (manipulation, technical exploits etc... But there appear to be many others... There is one famous Mathematican hedge funder... James Harris S.. Is this a coincidence?

The funny thing is that it might be similar to professional sports. They have very strong rules against any substance abuse but many suspect they are all doing it But they still have to heavily train and do know the game.... Similar to hedge funds or high returns. Some try to mask insides with research, that is the name of the game or to earn enough before it is blown or some even price this in

It is possible? It seems so. Can you be absolutely sure (in the next trade)? Not even if you have fix on the game
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #948
  • Jun 5, 2019 11:15am Jun 5, 2019 11:15am
my 2 cents. Yes, there are people who can pull consistent profits year after year I guestimate around 2% of all retail traders. The other 98% end up with a bag of mixed results. Most of us have winning streaks compounded by losing streaks which usually take all the winning streaks profit and then some leading to the inevitable blown account.

Coming to this realization that there is no way to be consistently profitable If I choose to do this full time is something not a lot of traders even consider. But here is the kicker....what if you didn't do this full time or even part-time? What if you use higher time frames 4hr and above and just trade once a week or once every 2 weeks? Now your goals change. You stop putting the emphasis on pulling a daily or weekly profit to nailing entries and exits. If the end goal was an extra $300 a month how much less stress do you think would be involved. Less stress + less emotion = profitable trading.

Now you take the extra $3000(figuring in you are gonna have dd) you made for the year and invest that into your trading and slowly you build your account up. I for one would be happy that if I did this and gained an extra $xxxxx 5 years from now.
  • #949
  • Jun 5, 2019 3:18pm Jun 5, 2019 3:18pm
Quoting jezzer76
my 2 cents. Yes, there are people who can pull consistent profits year after year I guestimate around 2% of all retail traders. The other 98% end up with a bag of mixed results. Most of us have winning streaks compounded by losing streaks which usually take all the winning streaks profit and then some leading to the inevitable blown account. Coming to this realization that there is no way to be consistently profitable If I choose to do this full time is something not a lot of traders even consider. But here is the kicker....what if you didn't do...
I think you must do that if you want to be profitable... Because noone could be consistenyl profitable, meaning 100% win-rate.. or he/she would a become a billionaire fast... even trillionaire, see my previous post.. In fact when dbfx provided its services to (private) traders (5k deposit "only").. they had this 10 RULES.. that they suggest you MEMORISE them, internalise...
and one of which was, I remembered it well, I also practice it.. "Learn when NOT to trade"... For example, I am done LIVE trading for this week, market is much too weird, at least in my book. I will re-test strategies without (much) live trades and estimate if I should or when to enter LIVE again... That was maybe one of the reasons I have overall positive P/L after 10years..
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #950
  • Jun 16, 2019 12:36am Jun 16, 2019 12:36am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} I will rephrase it for my understanding. Eugene Fama (whoever he is) has stated that HE cannot win at retail Forex. And that is true. Whether he believes he can or cannot, he is correct. As I stated in my redux: 80% of new businesses fail in first 18 months 90% of new businesses fail in first 5 years and according to Inc. magazine, 96% fail within first 10 years. That's only 1 in 20 can succeed in business and many people have to make several attempts, go bankrupt or sell what's left before they become successful so percentages may be off....
You are comparing "apples to oranges"
You cannot compare "new businesses" to retail forex trading.
Retail forex trading is not a business

You need to compare "apples to apples"
For exemple, you can compare the game of roulette to retail forex trading.
And state the following "in gambling, some games appear to be more profitable than others, how does retail forex trading compare ?"
  • #951
  • Edited 1:10am Jun 16, 2019 12:57am | Edited 1:10am
Quoting SKLearn
Can YOU make money as a trader? Seems like many do. for example, in the Pivot Trading thread, lot of people sharing their profit report generated by trade report indicator every week or so.
The inevitable has happened...
  • #952
  • Jun 16, 2019 9:02pm Jun 16, 2019 9:02pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} The inevitable has happened...
needs a safety valve ... to maintain a healthy account

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: safety valve.png Size: 329 KB


re-visiting your thread.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=662550
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #953
  • Jun 16, 2019 11:06pm Jun 16, 2019 11:06pm
Quoting Mingary
{quote} You are comparing "apples to oranges" You cannot compare "new businesses" to retail forex trading. Retail forex trading is not a business You need to compare "apples to apples" For exemple, you can compare the game of roulette to retail forex trading. And state the following "in gambling, some games appear to be more profitable than others, how does retail forex trading compare ?"
Trading is a business for professional traders. Does not matter if its forex, corn, grogery, or IT. All the same. The people who make money in business have a plan before they start the business. Even with a plan, often they did not have sound and tested plan pr overlook a new trend, and go out of business.

I do not understand how you and the rest of the suicide bunch would invest in a business that you have no profitable plan and are totally clueless on how to make a profit. I understand when young people rush in but you cannot pull the youth exemption card.

You clearly, with the wisdom of old age, gambled and lost as you did not test if you had the edge against the market makers.

Hope you learned a lesson. If you can't swim, stay out of the deep end of the pool.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #954
  • Jun 16, 2019 11:28pm Jun 16, 2019 11:28pm
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Trading is a business for professional traders. Does not matter if its forex, corn, grogery, or IT. All the same. The people who make money in business have a plan before they start the business. Even with a plan, often they did not have sound and tested plan pr overlook a new trend, and go out of business. I do not understand how you and the rest of the suicide bunch would invest in a business that you have no profitable plan and are totally clueless on how to make a profit. I understand when young people rush in but you cannot pull the...
Sorry to call Mingary out but sometimes people need to hear the truth. If you think you can get rich quick in anything in life, you are going to lose. Scammers will pick your pockets. The only get rich quick thing that works is death of a wealthy relative.

Mingary tried forex get rick quick, lost it, and now wants to save the world from his/her impulsing gambling rather than a sound business plan. You may learn from Mingary. Or, you will become the next Mingary if you do not use a system you have personally tested with real money testing for your emotion reactions.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #955
  • Jun 16, 2019 11:45pm Jun 16, 2019 11:45pm
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Trading is a business for professional traders. Does not matter if its forex, corn, grogery, or IT. All the same. The people who make money in business have a plan before they start the business. Even with a plan, often they did not have sound and tested plan pr overlook a new trend, and go out of business. I do not understand how you and the rest of the suicide bunch would invest in a business that you have no profitable plan and are totally clueless on how to make a profit. I understand when young people rush in but you cannot pull the...
Be it shallow or deep water, it's possible to swim for a while but all swimmers in the retail forex ocean eventually drown.
"it's possible to swim for a while" is what the retail forex marketing machine in all its forms counts on to recruit new swimmers.
"Come on for a swim the water is fine...."

"Trading is a business for professional traders"
This is a euphemism for "I am a gambler applying my gambling strategy"

Facts are facts and the similarities between gambling in a casino and retail forex trading are overwhelming.

Not even knowing who you are, I can safely say that you are not making a living trading the retail forex market as your only source of income (unless you are "recruiting" which is the ONLY WAY to make money in this game)
At best, like the many mugs who feed the industry, you are finding some initial success and it lead you to believe that "trading is a business for professional traders"
Good luck
  • #956
  • Edited Jun 17, 2019 11:44pm Jun 16, 2019 11:58pm | Edited Jun 17, 2019 11:44pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} needs a safety valve ... to maintain a healthy account {image} re-visiting your thread. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=662550
That's exactly right. A safety valve is a must.
Any Reversal to the Mean system is all fun and games until the ceiling explodes or the bottom falls out.
The Pivot thread is a perfect example.
And just not that particular method ...What the market gives, the market takes back 10 fold or more
  • #957
  • Jun 17, 2019 12:01am Jun 17, 2019 12:01am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Be it shallow or deep water, it's possible to swim for a while but all swimmers in the retail forex ocean eventually drown. "it's possible to swim for a while" is what the retail forex marketing machine in all its forms counts on to recruit new swimmers. "Come on for a swim the water is fine...." "Trading is a business for professional traders" This is a euphemism for "I am a gambler applying my gambling strategy" Facts are facts and the similarities between gambling in a casino and retail forex trading are overwhelming.
Actually, I rarely gamble. My wife likes to play slots so I have to humor. Not good odds so I tend to wander, waiting for the I am done. I usually lose less than 100 but wife is happy so its a win/

I have 4 tested strategies, 2 for trending and 2 for ranging, one scalp one swing each. Quite profitable, only had one losing year since 2010. No need to reveal strategies to you as you will not believe they work
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #958
  • Jun 17, 2019 12:05am Jun 17, 2019 12:05am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} I don't now who this Davit is, but I have 95% confidence that he is not makng a living with retail forex as his only source of income.... and the other 5% is just temporary. But I digress. I am familiar with the "48 laws of power" Do you know they are used in psychology / psychiatry to diagnose the psychopath personality ?
Davit is a racist scam trader... Just so you know. And you were wrong, he does not make a living with retail forex (you said 95%, it is 100%)
when you can accurately predict the future, you leave nothing to chance.
  • #959
  • Jun 17, 2019 12:12am Jun 17, 2019 12:12am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Facts are facts and the similarities between gambling in a casino and retail forex trading are overwhelming.
very true.
lots of similarities.
but there is a fundamental difference.
the casinos will ban you for applying a business like mind, and play professionally, ie. be a card counter.
the casinos apply min and max bets with lot less flexibility than trading, for statistically it gives them a further edge.
as a business, while in trading the field is far from levelled, one has a lot better chance to apply a business like mindset/approach vs in the casino.
to do so, it isnt easy, but isnt impossible goal.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #960
  • Jun 17, 2019 11:21am Jun 17, 2019 11:21am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} Be it shallow or deep water, it's possible to swim for a while but all swimmers in the retail forex ocean eventually drown. "it's possible to swim for a while" is what the retail forex marketing machine in all its forms counts on to recruit new swimmers. "Come on for a swim the water is fine...." "Trading is a business for professional traders" This is a euphemism for "I am a gambler applying my gambling strategy" Facts are facts and the similarities between gambling in a casino and retail forex trading are overwhelming. Not even knowing...
I always refer myself as a professional gambler The similarities are indeed overwhelming, depends on what perspective you fit yourself in.
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