DislikedI still do not understand, because I am a newbie. Perhaps, the other members ever use this service?Ignored
It's great for fundamental understanding and used as confluence, I view it as "the big direction" for fund flows
1
Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis
- #662
- Edited Mar 25, 2019 1:17pm Mar 24, 2019 2:02pm | Edited Mar 25, 2019 1:17pm
As of the March 19th release [Day before the FOMC release + after contract expiry for currencies so be mindful of that]
On the Wednesday following this report the FOMC released their dot plot that significantly reduced market expectations for a rate hike by the FED https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/fomc-dot-plot/ . As I'm sure you're aware, the initial market reaction to this news was bearish. Especially so in the Yen. By Friday all pairs excluding the USDJPY,GBPUSD,USDCHF [viewed on daily] had seen a resurgence in USD strength.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
JPYUSD -Legacy Report:
Commercial Longs: -19% 144K --> 116k
Commercial Shorts: -46% 80K --> 43K
Net : +9k
Now 73% Long the Yen from the previous 64%
Net positions are now greater than 80% of the past 3 years when calculated as a percentage of Open Interest (62% when only comparing to previous net positions).
Overall Commercials have taken back on their customary role in the markets after their Large addition of shorts from the 31st of December to the 15th of January and have trended increasingly Net Long since then.
Traders in Financial Futures:
Dealer Longs: 80k --> 58K
Dealer Shorts: 44k--> 1.5k
Net: +20k
bullish Yen?
An interesting increase especially considering the date of the release and subsequent price action. Net positions currently trend towards a bearish JPYUSD. I'm curious to see if that trend continues despite the most recent releases from the BOJ and FED.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
A follow up on the AUDUSD
-Employment figures and the FOMC release did provide an initial boost to the AUDUSD.
-Continued bearish trend in Net positioning
-Non-Commercials enter the bottom 5% of all previous positions. NC Shorts now 2 Standard Deviations above average.
-Commercials now 75% long from previous 68%. Dealers 96% Long from previous 88%
-AUDJPY would be a poor pair to be long if looking for AUD exposure
[assuming the larger increase in JPY Dealer net longs is meaningful]
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
XAUUSD
Since my previous mention about a large net long increase by Commercials
Commercials have since slowly moved towards a more net short position and Non-Commercials more Net Long [look over the data yourself for individual longs and shorts].
More bullish momentum to come?
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Interesting stuff happening in Crude Oil as well
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Any comments
?
On the Wednesday following this report the FOMC released their dot plot that significantly reduced market expectations for a rate hike by the FED https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/fomc-dot-plot/ . As I'm sure you're aware, the initial market reaction to this news was bearish. Especially so in the Yen. By Friday all pairs excluding the USDJPY,GBPUSD,USDCHF [viewed on daily] had seen a resurgence in USD strength.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
JPYUSD -Legacy Report:
Commercial Longs: -19% 144K --> 116k
Commercial Shorts: -46% 80K --> 43K
Net : +9k
Now 73% Long the Yen from the previous 64%
Net positions are now greater than 80% of the past 3 years when calculated as a percentage of Open Interest (62% when only comparing to previous net positions).
Overall Commercials have taken back on their customary role in the markets after their Large addition of shorts from the 31st of December to the 15th of January and have trended increasingly Net Long since then.
Traders in Financial Futures:
Dealer Longs: 80k --> 58K
Dealer Shorts: 44k--> 1.5k
Net: +20k
bullish Yen?
An interesting increase especially considering the date of the release and subsequent price action. Net positions currently trend towards a bearish JPYUSD. I'm curious to see if that trend continues despite the most recent releases from the BOJ and FED.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
A follow up on the AUDUSD
-Employment figures and the FOMC release did provide an initial boost to the AUDUSD.
-Continued bearish trend in Net positioning
-Non-Commercials enter the bottom 5% of all previous positions. NC Shorts now 2 Standard Deviations above average.
-Commercials now 75% long from previous 68%. Dealers 96% Long from previous 88%
-AUDJPY would be a poor pair to be long if looking for AUD exposure
[assuming the larger increase in JPY Dealer net longs is meaningful]____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
XAUUSD
Since my previous mention about a large net long increase by Commercials
XAUUSD and why I'm not as bearish as in my previous post. Over the past few weeks we have seen increase in dovishness among a few Central Banks (BOC ,FED ,ECB, BOJ) which could potentially push more money into gold. Within the latest release of the data what has really piqued my interest and subsequent lessening of opinion is what the Commercials have done with their positions or rather, their rate of liquidation. From the 12th to 19th Commercials added in 54k Shorts during a period of what would become the most recent high in price but since then,...
More bullish momentum to come?
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Interesting stuff happening in Crude Oil as well
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Any comments
? - #663
- Mar 25, 2019 2:48am Mar 25, 2019 2:48am
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Lean Hogs
COT Change (52W) / C - 50%, LS – 27%, SS - 57% /
COT Extreme / SS – 1270 COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 6.9, W -12.2, M 14.3 /
All of our cot signals are bearish, ftg scores are not against this view either so we may be in for a top soon…
Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W 8.9, M 4.5 /
Correlating markets (LH) so we are not surprised to see this bearish cot signal in live cattle… Pretty obvious picture, not much to argue about
Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / LS – 302, SS - 303 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.8, W -11.8, M -42.5 /
Beautiful bearish cot extreme signal which of course means that the chances of Mexican peso to lose value against the USD has risen dramatically. Looking at examples from the past one can easily come to the conclusion that cot extreme signals seem to be very efficient in this market.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Lean Hogs
COT Change (52W) / C - 50%, LS – 27%, SS - 57% /
COT Extreme / SS – 1270 COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 6.9, W -12.2, M 14.3 /
All of our cot signals are bearish, ftg scores are not against this view either so we may be in for a top soon…
Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W 8.9, M 4.5 /
Correlating markets (LH) so we are not surprised to see this bearish cot signal in live cattle… Pretty obvious picture, not much to argue about
Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / LS – 302, SS - 303 report COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.8, W -11.8, M -42.5 /
Beautiful bearish cot extreme signal which of course means that the chances of Mexican peso to lose value against the USD has risen dramatically. Looking at examples from the past one can easily come to the conclusion that cot extreme signals seem to be very efficient in this market.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
- #664
- Mar 25, 2019 3:00am Mar 25, 2019 3:00am
XAUUSD Since my previous mention about a large net long increase by Commercials {quote} Commercials have since slowly moved towards a more net short position and Non-Commercials more Net Long [look over the data yourself for individual longs and shorts]. More bullish momentum to come? {image}{image} ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Any comments
Current readings in Gold COT report does not help me too much... The last major extreme was bullish so until the last major bottom is broken (mid 2018) I think this signal is still valid and we can expect higher prices to come in the long run. For me what is causing cautiousness (short term) is the negative divergence between miners and gold itself (compare HUI Senior Gold miners from 2016 to present with Gold itself). I'd be more inclined to accept the bullish picture once this divergence disappears.
All the best,
Dunstan
- #665
- Edited 12:30pm Mar 25, 2019 10:29am | Edited 12:30pm
{quote} Hi MoshiM, Current readings in Gold COT report does not help me too much... The last major extreme was bullish so until the last major bottom is broken (mid 2018) I think this signal is still valid and we can expect higher prices to come in the long run. For me what is causing cautiousness (short term) is the negative divergence between miners and gold itself (compare HUI Senior Gold miners from 2016 to present with Gold itself). I'd be more inclined to accept the bullish picture once this divergence disappears. All the best, Dunstan {image}...
Disaggregated report with Net positions and 3Y indexes:
[still fairly bullish]
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Brazilian Real
COT Change (52W) / C - 34%, LS – 32%, SS - 21% /
FTG Score / D -40.3, W -47.5, M -43.2 /
Very large change has happened in Traders positions here (bullish cot signal), but FTG scores indicate that further weakness is on its way, so maybe we should wait a bit…
Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W -8.8, M 10.9 /
COT analysis is here is not as straight forward here since we are talking about only a 1 year history for Bitcoin, but the fact that small speculators are heavily long suggests to me that there could be a higher chance for the market to move lower in the next couple of weeks /months. We will see… interesting market
Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -18.8, W -40.9, M -53.2 /
One of the nicest opportunities this week: All time cot extreme signal (bearish) and a support from FTG as well.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Brazilian Real
COT Change (52W) / C - 34%, LS – 32%, SS - 21% /
FTG Score / D -40.3, W -47.5, M -43.2 /
Very large change has happened in Traders positions here (bullish cot signal), but FTG scores indicate that further weakness is on its way, so maybe we should wait a bit…
Bitcoin (CME)
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 4.4, W -8.8, M 10.9 /
COT analysis is here is not as straight forward here since we are talking about only a 1 year history for Bitcoin, but the fact that small speculators are heavily long suggests to me that there could be a higher chance for the market to move lower in the next couple of weeks /months. We will see… interesting market
Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -18.8, W -40.9, M -53.2 /
One of the nicest opportunities this week: All time cot extreme signal (bearish) and a support from FTG as well.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
{quote} Hi MoshiM, I thought I'll share with you the following finding. You might be interested in looking at the options only data, because to me it seems as if there are some "smart people" among commercial participants. Look at the attached chart and it becomes obvious. I believe we have a good chance that gold will be headed north in the next couple of days, few weeks. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts FOREX Trading Futures...
- #671
- Edited Apr 9, 2019 7:08am Apr 8, 2019 12:08pm | Edited Apr 9, 2019 7:08am
Crude is an odd one at the moment for me. The Commercials massive net selling surge was revealed within the MAR-19 report and they have been trending net bearish ever since. That said, nothing has come of it. Which is strange. Swap dealers just recently popped into the bottom 10% of positions while the commercial group on the Legacy Report have been within the bottom 10% for the past 3 weeks. Additionally it seems as though the "Managed Money" as defined by the CFTC have tapered off their Long purchases with "Other Reportables" picking up the slack 
For now I'm bullish but I recognize that the prospects of a potential short have risen greatly. I remember there being an upcoming OPEC meeting. Maybe something interesting will be announced around that time.
For now I'm bullish but I recognize that the prospects of a potential short have risen greatly. I remember there being an upcoming OPEC meeting. Maybe something interesting will be announced around that time.
- #672
- Apr 8, 2019 12:44pm Apr 8, 2019 12:44pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Sep 2018 | 1,427 Posts
{quote} Thank you Dunstan. I completely agree. I suppose I should mention that in my previous post I meant "re-entering the Long trend". I did have a few early buys on gold , but I've held onto them. That large change in positions for the APR-02 report that you highlighted above is noticeable in the raw data but certainly more clear on an options only chart . {image} {image}
Hey MoshiM i am aud same range up,,i am remmember your analisis
{quote} Yeap, exactly! I've never looked at the options only data, but it seems to be very reliable! Another great example is EUR (see attachment). And you can see how well the market reacted. Another interesting analysis is on Crude Oil (WTI), again by looking at options only data. Looks like there could be a good opportunity to short the market. What is your opinion? All the best, Dunstan COT Charts FOREX Trading Futures...
Non-Commercial positions since 1999
Non-Commercials have still got some wiggle room for additional shorts so I'm not looking to add in any longs and instead will opt to tighten my stop losses on my existing short positions.
Net Positions since JAN-2015
Maybe the ECB's policy statement this week will serve as a catalyst for a new trend upwards.
- #675
- Apr 23, 2019 3:31am Apr 23, 2019 3:31am
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Oats
COT Change (52W) / C - 30%, LS – 32%, SS - 14% /
FTG Score / D 27.1, W 35.7, M 35.6 /
No extreme / bearish cot change signal / strong FTG scores: pretty mixed up picture here, maybe it’s best to step aside and wait for a better more clearer situation.
Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 15.3, W -27.9, M -52.5 /
The all time extreme combined with such FTG scores says that a very nice shorting opportunity is on the table here
Corn
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.0, W -50.9, M -48.6 /
All time bullish extreme but here we do not have support from FTG, thus there may be a good chance that the market is continuing the decline and as it does, we will be receiving even greater extremes the next couple of weeks.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Oats
COT Change (52W) / C - 30%, LS – 32%, SS - 14% /
FTG Score / D 27.1, W 35.7, M 35.6 /
No extreme / bearish cot change signal / strong FTG scores: pretty mixed up picture here, maybe it’s best to step aside and wait for a better more clearer situation.
Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 15.3, W -27.9, M -52.5 /
The all time extreme combined with such FTG scores says that a very nice shorting opportunity is on the table here
Corn
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.0, W -50.9, M -48.6 /
All time bullish extreme but here we do not have support from FTG, thus there may be a good chance that the market is continuing the decline and as it does, we will be receiving even greater extremes the next couple of weeks.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
- #676
- Apr 29, 2019 4:07am Apr 29, 2019 4:07am
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C - 15%, LS – 14%, SS - 10% /
FTG Score / D -7.2, W -49.9, M -13.7 /
All of our main cot signals are pointing upwards, but the high weekly FTG score (bearish) warns us to be cautious, further declines could be on their way.
Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 17.3, W -24.4, M -50.2 /
If you were following these signals, then probably you have hopped on a profitable wagon here In accordance with the cot extreme signal the market started to move lower and the picture suggests this may continue for many more weeks and months.
Corn
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.9, W -48.9, M -52.2 /
My last week’s remark still holds and you can see that the extreme in the market simply became even larger. FTG system still very bearish, thus patients is still necessary here.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Swiss Franc
COT Change (52W) / C - 15%, LS – 14%, SS - 10% /
FTG Score / D -7.2, W -49.9, M -13.7 /
All of our main cot signals are pointing upwards, but the high weekly FTG score (bearish) warns us to be cautious, further declines could be on their way.
Russian Ruble
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D 17.3, W -24.4, M -50.2 /
If you were following these signals, then probably you have hopped on a profitable wagon here
In accordance with the cot extreme signal the market started to move lower and the picture suggests this may continue for many more weeks and months.Corn
COT Extreme / LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
FTG Score / D -25.9, W -48.9, M -52.2 /
My last week’s remark still holds and you can see that the extreme in the market simply became even larger. FTG system still very bearish, thus patients is still necessary here.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
FOREX Trading
Futures Trading
I've been seeing this for a while now on various websites so I was hoping to start a discussion on why people strictly adhere to analysis of net positions.
Previously I posted about EUR Non-Commercial Short positions (note: not the net the position but the gross) being near record breaking levels meanwhile net positions would suggest that there is quite a bit more room for increased net shorts. Wouldn't it more insightful to recognize that despite there being near record breaking breaking numbers(ie: possibly close to topping out) of shorts, there is a persistent buying interest in the face of a blatant yet choppy downtrend.
Charts depict data since the beginning of 2015.
Previously I posted about EUR Non-Commercial Short positions (note: not the net the position but the gross) being near record breaking levels meanwhile net positions would suggest that there is quite a bit more room for increased net shorts. Wouldn't it more insightful to recognize that despite there being near record breaking breaking numbers(ie: possibly close to topping out) of shorts, there is a persistent buying interest in the face of a blatant yet choppy downtrend.
Charts depict data since the beginning of 2015.
