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  • #7,521
  • Feb 20, 2019 8:48am Feb 20, 2019 8:48am
GBPJPY on track with alert but needs to set some clear hints before taking the play.
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  • #7,522
  • Edited 10:02am Feb 20, 2019 9:44am | Edited 10:02am
Bottom rotation on USDRUB

EDIT: Rotation developed nicely, but there was no spread tightening or high activity after break so I did not participated.
  • #7,523
  • Feb 20, 2019 10:43am Feb 20, 2019 10:43am
Quoting janpec1000
Sanctions play USDRUB Possible increase of sanctions over next few weeks on Russia, USDRUB placed on watch. If sanctions come, becomes primary play with longs. US sanctions already set, the question remains if EU will follow. EU talks in Monday, so on high priority watch USDRUB if it starts to gain momentum, its a long play. Will keep updating this one each day as its very important, potentially strong play same as last year August sanctions play.
Again just rolling this post forward. This play will come, and ill make sure to not miss it. Many different scenarios in air for now, many different directions to where the push could be.
From my view i am prepping for 2 scenario plays:
1.Exclusion from short term debt participation for Russia on global markets
2.Overall economic sanctions and name listings (repeat of August play)

Reasons why EU and US are pushing for this are irrelevant and i wont discuss them there because its just political soup spilling on top of deception and true hidden agenda, all it matters are real not possible but actually very probable actions that will result in coming days (could be a bit of on timing there).
Based on what i have been gathering over last several months those two are most likely the outcomes, first one will take big hit on Russian 10 y yields which will push RUB down and probably a lot, triggering instant long play on USDRUB and buying any dip.
Second play is less aggressive, will consider most likely only M1 micro plays for entries such as pullback legs along hot momentum.

This is easily 50 R play right there so no excuses to not be prepped with forks and knives. (August play gave even more than that)
  • #7,524
  • Feb 20, 2019 11:54am Feb 20, 2019 11:54am
GBPJPY targeted clearout, possible rotation here if it bakes HH. GBP futures already in HH mode, so likely to bake. Waiting for GBPCHF to show initiation on play.
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  • #7,525
  • Feb 20, 2019 12:43pm Feb 20, 2019 12:43pm
Quoting janpec1000
GBPJPY targeted clearout, possible rotation here if it bakes HH. GBP futures already in HH mode, so likely to bake. Waiting for GBPCHF to show initiation on play. {image}
GBPCHF last one.
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  • #7,526
  • Feb 21, 2019 8:08am Feb 21, 2019 8:08am
Shorted AU
EURNZD if 6653 holds its low risk long.
  • #7,527
  • Feb 21, 2019 8:27am Feb 21, 2019 8:27am
GBPCHF shorted 3077, target 3068
  • #7,528
  • Feb 21, 2019 8:58am Feb 21, 2019 8:58am
GBPCHF, AUDUSD both to target, EURNZD stopped for small one.
  • #7,529
  • Feb 21, 2019 9:00am Feb 21, 2019 9:00am
Bitcoin missed 4k stuff on profit taking volume. But didnt have short ready anyways so nothing missed in real terms. There was another opportunity to short demand failure afterwards also.
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  • #7,530
  • Feb 21, 2019 9:05am Feb 21, 2019 9:05am
Keeping closely on watch EURUSD, watching tape on EURO if bids show any size or rotations. Structure seem to show some liquidity seeking there on buyers side, so keeping eye if any long entries pop up.
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  • #7,531
  • Feb 21, 2019 9:43am Feb 21, 2019 9:43am
Nothing in FX, just playing equities on ADIL trash. Shorting weaknesses and pops. ZSAN might come into play later.
  • #7,532
  • Feb 21, 2019 10:00am Feb 21, 2019 10:00am
USDJPY not touching this, big supply above, no longs on that breach.
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  • #7,533
  • Feb 21, 2019 10:11am Feb 21, 2019 10:11am
WHAT NOT TO SHORT:

Very simple rule when it comes to shorting is never short asset that had its biggest volume day ever intraday. No matter if its liquidation move such as short squeeze or true demand it doesnt matter, stay away from shorting. That aloane will bag up 90% of loses on attempting to fight this.
Doesnt mean there isnt going to be specific shortable play on it, it just means you better make sure you have to skills to see when demand dries to start shorting, if you cant, just better to have that as a NO GO always.

No matter what asset it is, huge volume (by far biggest average vol, or all time highest vol) means in more than 90% cases heavy demand coming in and bid soaking all the sellers. Seeking for shorts in early parts of move like that is looking at completely the wrong side of equation.
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  • #7,534
  • Feb 21, 2019 10:49am Feb 21, 2019 10:49am
GBPUSD M1 Supply Take Out. Price action hinted buyers trying to take price higher around the next supply level. +0.9R
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #7,535
  • Feb 21, 2019 10:57am Feb 21, 2019 10:57am
US30 supply takeout coming likely.
  • #7,536
  • Feb 21, 2019 12:36pm Feb 21, 2019 12:36pm
ZSAN playing for EOD short squeeze. Huge amount of shorts absorbed in 5,00 area. Whoever is pushing this has game hat on. But if they throw the towell its gona be dirty loss.
  • #7,537
  • Feb 21, 2019 1:11pm Feb 21, 2019 1:11pm
Quoting janpec1000
ZSAN playing for EOD short squeeze. Huge amount of shorts absorbed in 5,00 area. Whoever is pushing this has game hat on. But if they throw the towell its gona be dirty loss.
Massive short squeeze ZSAN. Sold longs 5,16. Well planned but a bit poor execution on entry with not enough size and too quick to get out.
This was text-book short squeeze, saw it from miles away.
1.Trash asset that was in big down trend for years (lots of aggressive shorts piling in today, also easy to borrow shorts on most brokers) providing demand fuel
2.Phase 3 trial baked for biotech which is often big news as it means finallly revenue flow in for company as their product hits the market soon, very bullish
3.consolidation bellow the highs on very high volume for the float traded (200k M1 vol bars, for stock with float under 10 mil), float rotation and shorts tick tack squeezed on each step
.....
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  • #7,538
  • Feb 21, 2019 3:48pm Feb 21, 2019 3:48pm
Quoting janpec1000
WHAT NOT TO SHORT: Very simple rule when it comes to shorting is never short asset that had its biggest volume day ever intraday. No matter if its liquidation move such as short squeeze or true demand it doesnt matter, stay away from shorting. That aloane will bag up 90% of loses on attempting to fight this. Doesnt mean there isnt going to be specific shortable play on it, it just means you better make sure you have to skills to see when demand dries to start shorting, if you cant, just better to have that as a NO GO always. No matter what asset...
So where did this end up since earlier post: about twice higher.


Goes to what i have been pointing since the first post in thread, the most important aspect any trader needs to understand is big behaviour change. Every trader with edge is only behaviour change executor, cant spot that... you have no chance. Can spot it...make sure you really spot obvious and very strong changes, if you do thats where real edge shines.

This asset ended trading 70 mil shares into close which is 1000%s higher than any or most days, also intraday charts, the picksups, the tape....everything screaming the bid is not giving up.
  • #7,539
  • Edited Feb 22, 2019 11:42am Feb 21, 2019 4:05pm | Edited Feb 22, 2019 11:42am
just longed USD/MXN

EDIT: STOPPED OUT
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  • #7,540
  • Feb 22, 2019 7:14am Feb 22, 2019 7:14am
Equities on watchlist: ZSAN, ACHV two turds in fly mode. MLNT reverse split. MLNT looking for push to 7,00 stuff and then roll back to 6,00. Shorting into pop.
ZSAN and ACHV looking to play long if volume comes, if wash mode is on then short.
FX nothing really on watch, dry week in terms of setups. Just following incoming Russian sanctions to hit the play when they come.
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