Eyes now on US30, flagshipper of the day incoming. Supply targeted. Load the boat type of play, added 3 times the normal risk.
Ignored
Its good to get humbled by market every so often. Had a strong thesis on this one, and MMs clearly tried 5 times to establish and absorb the supply....but they failed.
After 2 months of quiet period, Turkish lira comes back in macro play. Turkey comboed with Venezuela and went over US sanctions, now a further pressure will likely come from Washington and thus putting pressure on lira back again. Have explained already before how to play TRY on macro side...have active macro catalyst (inflation, sanctions, unsustaniable rates, increasing deficits, sectors in hole...) and then wait for short term fresh catalyst to strike and USDTRY to respond with strong bull impulsive move, then all it is there is to wait for proper structural setup, pullback leg or buying at dip on demand. Then loading in .
On long term side nothing has changed, TRY will become a basket case currency within next few years this train cannot be stopped, the question is just when impulse comes at market, and for that short term catalysts are to listen to.
EURUSD solid structure to study supply and demand factors, who is in controll, why , where, who got cleared out . Studying those factors on consistent structures over 100s of play is what gives on edge. Following market actions is like spending a lot of time to build a thesis, then taking a minute for that thesis to be demolished, then admitting the change of reality and building the new thesis, then taking time to confirm the new thesis. Its something that human is not built to do, you can only do it by practicing it enough, throw ego out and realize you are in market to learn and admit the reality.
After 2 months of quiet period, Turkish lira comes back in macro play. Turkey comboed with Venezuela and went over US sanctions, now a further pressure will likely come from Washington and thus putting pressure on lira back again. Have explained already before how to play TRY on macro side...have active macro catalyst (inflation, sanctions, unsustaniable rates, increasing deficits, sectors in hole...) and then wait for short term fresh catalyst to strike and USDTRY to respond with strong bull impulsive move, then all it is there is to wait for proper...
2 bounces, 3rd or 4th is when it usually gives up, if it goes its a flush down to lows. Its easier to trade those in large cap equities since you can see MM sitting with large limit orders and soaking the bid when price comes to retest zone, but in FX one kinda has to wing it, observing spreads does help a bit, spread has to tighten on retest to signal soaking or the ask has to jump up a lot while bid staying at price level, signaling low selling interest, either of those is a valid way to go.
Said it before, in thinner market its easier to read market makers actions because the amount of participants is very low. However in thin market its very important to respect the stop loss and cut losses because if that player gives up the trade can turn into huge loss easily if stop losses are not respected.
(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad
