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Trading news and sentiment

  • #101
  • Nov 19, 2018 8:13pm Nov 19, 2018 8:13pm
Hey Eco -

Thanks for creating this thread.

As I learn more about forex trading, I want to add fundamental analysis and sentiment to my tool box.

I've been slowly reading through this thread, to get a better understanding. I appreciate your insight and contribution.

I am sure I will have many noob questions in the near future.
If you're gonna be a bear, be a grizzly
  • #102
  • Nov 20, 2018 12:45am Nov 20, 2018 12:45am
Quoting warrensapp
Hey Eco - Thanks for creating this thread. As I learn more about forex trading, I want to add fundamental analysis and sentiment to my tool box. I've been slowly reading through this thread, to get a better understanding. I appreciate your insight and contribution. I am sure I will have many noob questions in the near future.
If you don't mind reading have a look at this

"Forex: Using Fundamental Analysis & Fundamental Trading Techniques to maximize your Gains. (Forex, Forex Trading, Forex Strategy, Forex Trading Strategies, ... Forex Trading Books, Trading Strategies)" by Dave Matias.
Start reading it for free: http://amzn.eu/i1Z5L7S
  • #103
  • Edited 3:35am Nov 20, 2018 3:25am | Edited 3:35am
Swing trading fundamentals

I wanted to offer some info to those of you that need to look at swing trading to allow you to trade and work at the same time. I do both which are triggered by news. The difference is avoiding swing trades off the back of data that isn't significant in a shift in the economy. This could be inflation, employment, government spending and central bank communication. Just to be clear when i swing trade i am not looking for target huge gains, I prefer to target the first major zone, big round numbers etc. To give you an idea of an example, i have been looking to buy AU$ for a while. The economy took a beating and the RBA has been on hold since around 2016 and has mentioned they will lower if needed. in the last 6 months things have been picking up although with trade wars and risk off sentiment the AU$ has continued to take a beating. Well it is sitting at the lows all while the economy has been improving. Employment and exports have been solid and the economy has been picking up faster than the RBA forecast. I decided to front run the minutes released in the Asia session on expectations that it will contain an upbeat theme and it did. The asia session also offered me up an opportunity to get better pricing off the back of $ strength which i believe is fully factored in with regards to the December hike and there has been dovish commends from Fed officials.

So what we have here is an asymmetrical risk profile where trade wars and dollar strength along with risk off tones has extended the depreciation of the AU$ but the fundamentals of AU have been picking up. If this were a chart you would see divergence ( a metaphor you might relate to better). At current pricing and a clearly more upbeat central bank, the scene is set for AU appreciation. There are risks however and these come in the form of China growth, trade wars, and further risk off tones. You have to take risks to make money and from my perspective the US economy and specifically the equity markets where there are clear outflows and its a case of where that money goes next is what interests me - money will follow opportunity and I see at least moderate opportunity here for the AU$ to gain some traction.

So there you have it an example of swing trading analysis. It is similar to regular news trading in terms of the research needed but with more focus on the medium term than the short term.

https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-poli...018-11-06.html
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #104
  • Nov 20, 2018 6:54am Nov 20, 2018 6:54am
Excellent article
When you do the research you can find these types of opportunities
And are prepared for the trade before it starts
Eco what do you use to track the flow of funds
How effective is it
Also would you factor in other asset classes
  • #105
  • Nov 20, 2018 7:17am Nov 20, 2018 7:17am
Quoting Fader123
Excellent article When you do the research you can find these types of opportunities And are prepared for the trade before it starts Eco what do you use to track the flow of funds How effective is it Also would you factor in other asset classes

I will look across markets

Bonds
Equities
Emerging Markets
Commodities
Safe Havens


Right now there appears to be a continuation of safe haven flows which is where the money is headed ( yen, swissy , gold, and gov bonds)

This image is the US 10 year
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #106
  • Nov 20, 2018 7:22am Nov 20, 2018 7:22am
one of the nice tools that comes with Eikon - tools like this


Currency value relative to gold - you can see NZD and ZAR are the strongest
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #107
  • Nov 20, 2018 12:28pm Nov 20, 2018 12:28pm
Quoting EcoTrader
one of the nice tools that comes with Eikon - tools like this Currency value relative to gold - you can see NZD and ZAR are the strongest {image}
Interesting chart Eco, but how does it help you in your trading day to day?
  • #108
  • Nov 20, 2018 2:55pm Nov 20, 2018 2:55pm
Quoting EcoTrader
one of the nice tools that comes with Eikon - tools like this Currency value relative to gold - you can see NZD and ZAR are the strongest {image}
There's a similar indicator for those stuck on Tradingview called "8 Pair Strength R2.0 updated by JustUncleL" that shows FX strengths.

PS: Thanks for this great thread
  • #109
  • Edited 7:21am Nov 21, 2018 6:21am | Edited 7:21am
fyi - sorry to say that i have decided to leave the forum. I wish you all the best on your journey and hope that you might have gained some useful takeaways from what i have shared. If you wish to keep in contact email me and we can keep in touch through other means.

All the best.
  • #110
  • Nov 21, 2018 7:45am Nov 21, 2018 7:45am
Quoting EcoTrader
fyi - sorry to say that i have decided to leave the forum. I wish you all the best on your journey and hope that you might have gained some useful takeaways from what i have shared. If you wish to keep in contact email me and we can keep in touch through other means. All the best.
See you around Green pips
  • #111
  • Nov 21, 2018 8:32am Nov 21, 2018 8:32am
Quoting EcoTrader
fyi - sorry to say that i have decided to leave the forum. I wish you all the best on your journey and hope that you might have gained some useful takeaways from what i have shared. If you wish to keep in contact email me and we can keep in touch through other means. All the best.
Sorry to see you go EcoTrader, but thanks for the information you've shared

Best wishes on your trading!
  • #112
  • Nov 21, 2018 8:42am Nov 21, 2018 8:42am
Quoting rover99x
{quote} Sorry to see you go EcoTrader, but thanks for the information you've shared Best wishes on your trading!

feel free to hit me up Rover
  • #113
  • Nov 25, 2018 10:07am Nov 25, 2018 10:07am
Just wanted to give you all a heads up. 10 or 11th December the UK government will vote on the brexit deal. Eu have now signed it off so its up to the UK government. If they vote to reject it sell sterling it will be worth hundreds of pips.
  • #114
  • Nov 25, 2018 11:00am Nov 25, 2018 11:00am
Quoting EcoTrader
Just wanted to give you all a heads up. 10 or 11th December the UK government will vote on the brexit deal. Eu have now signed it off so its up to the UK government. If they vote to reject it sell sterling it will be worth hundreds of pips.
To the newbies selling pound sterling means for example buy EURGBP, sell GBPUSD, etc.
  • #115
  • Nov 25, 2018 11:38am Nov 25, 2018 11:38am
One word of caution. If it does happen don't just sit on the short. The BOE have said they will raise rates if sterling experiences a lot of selling and everyone will be selling.

"No-deal Brexit may force interest rate rise, says Bank of England governor Mark Carney"

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.i...316.html%3famp


Hopefully they won't step in immediately but just be prepared in case. I will be looking to trail a stop by 50 pips.
  • #116
  • Nov 25, 2018 11:46am Nov 25, 2018 11:46am
I have received a lot of interest in staying and posting so considering it and will let you all know if I decid to stay. I would need to cut off my participation on the rest of the forum to avoid getting into mud slinging with trolls. I am also concerned that my focus will be diverted from trading so might switch the format around to be better aligned to trading and less blogging. Happy to discuss opinions on this.
  • #117
  • Nov 25, 2018 12:22pm Nov 25, 2018 12:22pm
Quoting EcoTrader
I have received a lot of interest in staying and posting so considering it and will let you all know if I decid to stay. I would need to cut off my participation on the rest of the forum to avoid getting into mud slinging with trolls. I am also concerned that my focus will be diverted from trading so might switch the format around to be better aligned to trading and less blogging. Happy to discuss opinions on this.
Being on a forum, dealing with trolls is a necessary skill to develop. They're just providing you with a free opportunity to practice. I think trolling back is good, ignoring works too. Here are the posts of me trolling back the ones getting out of line, the ones begging for the loose change in my pockets: (1), (2), (3), (4), (5)
  • #118
  • Nov 25, 2018 3:48pm Nov 25, 2018 3:48pm
Quoting EcoTrader
I have received a lot of interest in staying and posting so considering it and will let you all know if I decid to stay. I would need to cut off my participation on the rest of the forum to avoid getting into mud slinging with trolls. I am also concerned that my focus will be diverted from trading so might switch the format around to be better aligned to trading and less blogging. Happy to discuss opinions on this.
In my experience trading just always seem to bring out high emotions and some are so wedded to their method and just shout down others that challenge their view.
I'm fascinated by your method and want to learn more as it's something that I may be able to use alongside my current method which has a lot of down time

Thanks for reconsidering
  • #119
  • Nov 25, 2018 6:36pm Nov 25, 2018 6:36pm
I had temporarily disabled my EA because I thought the markets were going have a heart attack at the 02:00 Brexit high-impact release. Well, nothing happened. When is the shockwave actually expected to happen?
  • #120
  • Nov 26, 2018 1:09am Nov 26, 2018 1:09am
Today I will be watching Draghi testify on the economy. Any dovish or hawkish tones will be an opportunity especially if there are changes to expectations on the recovery and or any major alterations to the end of the buying program. Recovery has been softened by recent data but its there nonetheless. The expectation is for rates to increase next summer.
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