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(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

  • #6,021
  • Nov 20, 2018 2:06pm Nov 20, 2018 2:06pm
Fantastic video by TED on data overfitting, data skeewing, and un-full context data fitting. All leading to very very bad realistic expectations, distortions.
As trader, if you dont know what has been said there spot on, there is still learning to be done.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E91bGT9BjYk
  • #6,022
  • Nov 20, 2018 5:01pm Nov 20, 2018 5:01pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Right i see your point, catching those along the larger macro trend. There is pro and con to it, the negative side is that you will get few entries and technically if you dont have access to markets at least few hours per day, it wont be worth it. That is usual behaviour when you trade macro/micro combo setups, the performance increases but only if you do full time trading, otherwise what will happen is youll just miss most of plays, and even those that you will catch about half will hit break even before they have large run. So if you are...
very clear , informative post. thank you..


Perhaps a bit like turkish lira (this year) when you a had a clear direction you wanted to trade the market.
It's in fear when people show what they truly value.
  • #6,023
  • Nov 21, 2018 5:19am Nov 21, 2018 5:19am
US30 supply takeout likely to form over next 15 min.
  • #6,024
  • Nov 21, 2018 5:28am Nov 21, 2018 5:28am
Quoting janpec1000
US30 supply takeout likely to form over next 15 min.
US30 A quality play, supply absorption and takeout. Sold for 3 R (double risk).
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  • #6,025
  • Nov 21, 2018 5:58am Nov 21, 2018 5:58am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} US30 A quality play, supply absorption and takeout. Sold for 3 R (double risk). {image} {image}
And a bounce from liquidity gap. If price bounces strong, usually the size is still participating which is bullish signal for some further upside move. Usually first bounce is where one wants to get in, after that second or third bounces are riskier because it signals that market is stronger than the sized player that was absorbing the supply.
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  • #6,026
  • Nov 21, 2018 7:03am Nov 21, 2018 7:03am
GJ pullback leg, looking for long fill.
  • #6,027
  • Nov 21, 2018 7:57am Nov 21, 2018 7:57am
USDTRY on watch, but could be sneaky , trades similar to ZAR on those. Will consider only with proper HLs and strenght.
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  • #6,028
  • Nov 21, 2018 8:36am Nov 21, 2018 8:36am
Quoting janpec1000
USDTRY on watch, but could be sneaky , trades similar to ZAR on those. Will consider only with proper HLs and strenght. {image}
USDTRY target baked, didnt take entry, some disconnecting issues from broker.
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  • #6,029
  • Nov 21, 2018 9:33am Nov 21, 2018 9:33am
GBPJPY took a short on support ahead of wash. Failed pullback leg.
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  • #6,030
  • Nov 21, 2018 9:36am Nov 21, 2018 9:36am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} USDTRY target baked, didnt take entry, some disconnecting issues from broker. {image}
This is what i meant by trading only first bounce, after 2nd or 3rd chances for failure increases (especially with LHs). If one is long its no point having large stop loss on bounce, because if soaker gives up it always flushes down to lows or trough them.
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  • #6,031
  • Nov 21, 2018 11:35am Nov 21, 2018 11:35am
US30 potentail supply takeout in formation.
  • #6,032
  • Nov 21, 2018 11:45am Nov 21, 2018 11:45am
Quoting janpec1000
US30 potentail supply takeout in formation.
US30 long sold. Still looking for bounce play if it comes.
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  • #6,033
  • Nov 21, 2018 12:34pm Nov 21, 2018 12:34pm
Equities today, one trade taken, one missed. BILI took a bounce trade of the ask stack with SL above it 15,15, larger orders stacked between 15,10 - 20, not my usual trade to trade bounces on supply but stack was decent. Covered for 1 R gain.
ANY was looking to short weakness structure 5,02-5,00 and looking for wash (second day play of low float fader), went away for 10 minutes and missed the entry. Was waiting for tape to start selling hard into trendline.
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  • #6,034
  • Nov 21, 2018 1:14pm Nov 21, 2018 1:14pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Right i see your point, catching those along the larger macro trend. There is pro and con to it, the negative side is that you will get few entries and technically if you dont have access to markets at least few hours per day, it wont be worth it. That is usual behaviour when you trade macro/micro combo setups, the performance increases but only if you do full time trading, otherwise what will happen is youll just miss most of plays, and even those that you will catch about half will hit break even before they have large run. So if you are...
Example of combo strategy with longer hold time. US market index, US30 or SP500. The easiest way is to only trade this when market is hitting new all time highs, day after day, following accumulation of aggressive buyers on pullback legs. Works the same in crypto when bulls are in control, and it can be flipped upside down to short when financial criss hits, or when country faces liquidity crisis and currency is pricing huge risks such as ARG, TRY, RUB plays in last few years.
Its grandpa strategy because it has limited gains, about 20 R is what one can expect in month, IF you catch really 90% of plays, which realistically will not happen, so about 10R is usual monthly. That means, if you dont risk at least 100 bucks per R it wont be worth it. Big positive side is....its easy, as long as one reads pullback legs okay, its quite easy ride compared to some harder patterns. Its a good fit strategy for non-full time traders (takes less than 10 minutes of time investment per day).
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  • #6,035
  • Nov 22, 2018 4:29am Nov 22, 2018 4:29am
GBPNZD H1 supply takeout, non targeted around news headlines, but still entry on retrace if gets.
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  • #6,036
  • Nov 22, 2018 5:40am Nov 22, 2018 5:40am
Quoting janpec1000
GBPNZD H1 supply takeout, non targeted around news headlines, but still entry on retrace if gets. {image}
GBPNZD took bounce trade, covered for 1 R, will look for second play since it bounced strong on the low volume washout.
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  • #6,037
  • Nov 22, 2018 6:34am Nov 22, 2018 6:34am
USDJPY in zombie mode due to Turkeys, but a thinner market is easier to read. Some unfortunate stops though, was looking for larger runs since volatility is very weak, needed to get above comission costs.
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  • #6,038
  • Nov 22, 2018 7:01am Nov 22, 2018 7:01am
Loaded some GBPNZD back at demand.
  • #6,039
  • Nov 22, 2018 8:01am Nov 22, 2018 8:01am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} All those questions have been answered many many times on thread.
Well I have read a lot of pages in the thread, but 300 page is a lot to go through. It might be helpful to update more information once in a while, for new people coming in. Nevertheless, i appreciate the thread.

Just one question, does your strategy work on higher time frames like 4h, 1Daily as it does on 1minute charts?
  • #6,040
  • Nov 22, 2018 8:49am Nov 22, 2018 8:49am
Quoting janpec1000
Loaded some GBPNZD back at demand.
GBPNZD sold, overall 1.5 R. Demand held well all aligned with larger macro H1 pattern and the Brexit drama rotation.
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