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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #1,181
  • May 11, 2018 7:14am May 11, 2018 7:14am
Quoting bzzz
CJ,are you still holding your EURNZD short?
I believe EN witnessed a standard stophunt after H4 level 2 down. I, for one, am short, hitting it hard all the way down.
functionaltrader.com
  • #1,182
  • May 11, 2018 10:31am May 11, 2018 10:31am
Quoting rewand
{quote} I believe EN witnessed a standard stophunt after H4 level 2 down. I, for one, am short, hitting it hard all the way down.
I'm shorting her wild sister GBPNZD instead,although following both of them but imho,EURNZD still has some juice to go 1.73xx and beyond before falling hard...Could you show me where did you see the SH?
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,183
  • May 11, 2018 11:04am May 11, 2018 11:04am
Quoting bzzz
{quote} I'm shorting her wild sister GBPNZD instead,although following both of them but imho,EURNZD still has some juice to go 1.73xx and beyond before falling hard...Could you show me where did you see the SH?
...1.7160 seems hard to crack
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,184
  • Edited May 12, 2018 4:47am May 11, 2018 11:44am | Edited May 12, 2018 4:47am
Quoting bzzz
{quote} I'm shorting her wild sister GBPNZD instead,although following both of them but imho,EURNZD still has some juice to go 1.73xx and beyond before falling hard...Could you show me where did you see the SH?
This is how I see it. It is a giant stop hunt, H4 L3 missing. I expect it to go to 1.6850 area before turning up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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functionaltrader.com
  • #1,185
  • Edited 2:17pm May 14, 2018 1:01pm | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting rewand
{quote} This is how I see it. It is a giant stop hunt, H4 L3 missing. I expect it to go to 1.6850 area before turning up. {image}
Interesting view ,i didn't notice the SH the way you looked at it,thank's for sharing rewand.Now here is how i see it
edit:a failed W
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,186
  • May 14, 2018 8:56pm May 14, 2018 8:56pm
Quoting bzzz
{quote} Interesting view ,i didn't notice the SH the way you looked at it,thank's for sharing rewand.Now here is how i see it edit:a failed W {image}
For some reason, I see your pl as l1 and l2 as sh. I just cant see the levels your way due to bottom pattern. Too many ways to look at levels. But ultimately I have not expected the move to north to this extent. So while I see a pattern playing out from the bottom it shows me sh still or levels as mentioned. But I misjudged the potential of the upmove anyway.
functionaltrader.com
  • #1,187
  • May 15, 2018 9:41am May 15, 2018 9:41am
Quoting rewand
{quote} For some reason, I see your pl as l1 and l2 as sh. I just cant see the levels your way due to bottom pattern. Too many ways to look at levels. But ultimately I have not expected the move to north to this extent. So while I see a pattern playing out from the bottom it shows me sh still or levels as mentioned. But I misjudged the potential of the upmove anyway.
Very tricky environment with so many mixed signals,very solid nerves needed,closed my GBPNZD shorts for some pips before getting stopped out but i may regret it.
looking forward to see your reasoning about bottom pattern if you have some time to spare,thank you and good luck with your EN shorts.tried some this morning but lost ,still hesitating to join you again i have to say...
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,188
  • May 15, 2018 10:32am May 15, 2018 10:32am
Quoting bzzz
{quote} Very tricky environment with so many mixed signals,very solid nerves needed,closed my GBPNZD shorts for some pips before getting stopped out but i may regret it. looking forward to see your reasoning about bottom pattern if you have some time to spare,thank you and good luck with your EN shorts.tried some this morning but lost ,still hesitating to join you again i have to say...
This is the pattern I refer to, pattern growing up and repeating on larger scale. I find it hard not to count it as a level. You may consider the low point as a stophunt and not a real peak low.
I have no stronger nerves than you. Seeing it does not mean making it.
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functionaltrader.com
  • #1,189
  • May 15, 2018 11:12am May 15, 2018 11:12am
Quoting rewand
{quote} This is the pattern I refer to, pattern growing up and repeating on larger scale. I find it hard not to count it as a level. You may consider the low point as a stophunt and not a real peak low. I have no stronger nerves than you. Seeing it does not mean making it. {image}
Hmmm now i see your pattern pretty accurate when repeating on larger scale...
possible nzdusd barf forming on m30 maybe this would trigger eurnzd and gbpnzd falling down
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,190
  • May 15, 2018 11:21pm May 15, 2018 11:21pm
Quoting rewand
{quote} ~~Seeing it does not mean making it. {image}
Your not wrong, but congratulations on reading the chart correctly (in hindsight). It's more than I did. I see CJ liked your call on post 1187.

However anyone stacking the shorts on the way down would have been stopped out.
Good Trading
  • #1,191
  • May 16, 2018 12:50am May 16, 2018 12:50am
Quoting aud
{quote} Your not wrong, but congratulations on reading the chart correctly (in hindsight). It's more than I did. I see CJ liked your call on post 1187. However anyone stacking the shorts on the way down would have been stopped out.
I was stopped out several times on this pair. I accept the fact that my predictions do not always prove right but we all need predictions, so we know when to re-evaluate. This pattern of pa I wil always remember.
functionaltrader.com
  • #1,192
  • May 16, 2018 1:21am May 16, 2018 1:21am
Think of it this way...

It is easier to take money away from traders who think they are good at predicting market movement.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #1,193
  • May 16, 2018 3:22am May 16, 2018 3:22am
As for me, everything has a regularity. Forex market has as well. It happens the price goes in the descending channel, but after the news sharply turns and goes in the opposite direction. But basically the market moves consistently.
  • #1,194
  • May 27, 2018 10:07am May 27, 2018 10:07am
EURUSD update....

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A man is not defeated when he is beaten, he is defeated when he quits.
  • #1,195
  • Sep 23, 2018 3:55am Sep 23, 2018 3:55am
Quoting Captain Jack
EURUSD update.... {image} {image}


EU 5min chart from August this year

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EU H4 current chart

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I have followed CJ's posts in the shadows since FXAW days and always come back to his teachings. If I ever manage to learn how to count to three, I'll know I've cracked it but my wave counts usually seem to be 2, 5 or 6. One day.
  • #1,196
  • Sep 23, 2018 8:14am Sep 23, 2018 8:14am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} EU 5min chart from August this year {image} EU H4 current chart {image} I have followed CJ's posts in the shadows since FXAW days and always come back to his teachings. If I ever manage to learn how to count to three, I'll know I've cracked it but my wave counts usually seem to be 2, 5 or 6. One day.
Weekly BARF completed, broke the lead-in TL and has just revisited from below so may bounce around here.

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Weekly levels look as though a first and maybe a second level down have formed (not my strong point!).

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No M has appeared yet on H4 but if it does and there are associated pins, I'll be in short with SL above the pins.

Just my take of course but I would be careful with longs in the short term, it can still go higher without invalidating the weekly down leg but the bounce off the lead-in line of the BARF is keeping me on the sidelines for now as it may drop sharply. This week could be interesting.
  • #1,197
  • Sep 24, 2018 6:56am Sep 24, 2018 6:56am
If it wasn't possible to predict price movement people wouldn't constantly be making fundamental or technical analysis, or both. As for the logic of it, different analysis and strategies have different logic that are explained together with how to use them.
  • #1,198
  • Oct 16, 2018 11:46am Oct 16, 2018 11:46am
It's getting harder and harder to decipher,really interesting...i wholeheartdly like Cj or rewand or anyone else comment or describe what is happening from their point of view.
From my side i still think it's going down but i need confirmation and in case it is confirmed that will give me one of the best lesson of trading forex in my life
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #1,199
  • Oct 16, 2018 8:59pm Oct 16, 2018 8:59pm
Quoting bzzz
It's getting harder and harder to decipher,really interesting...i wholeheartdly like Cj or rewand or anyone else comment or describe what is happening from their point of view. From my side i still think it's going down but i need confirmation and in case it is confirmed that will give me one of the best lesson of trading forex in my life
1st reading price isn't easy. You have to figure out price behaviors that are reliable to help you predict price direction. Most traders don't know how to read price. They work off of probabilities not accurate readings. So if they win 50 percent of their reads or more and make more than they lose --they are successful traders.

If you really want to read price accurately, its tough. You can't rely on support and resistance but have to figure out how to read whether price will hold or break a support and resistance level. That is HARD but doable.

I'll give you a great tip but am unwilling to do much more. Learn to read holding price! If you watch price long enough, you will observe that where ever price holds-- price moves away from that area. There's more to it than that but if you learn this one skill, it makes trading a whole lot easier. Your toughest decisions is when price holds on both sides or on the top and bottom.

Trading by reading price action is much different than just reading support and resistance. To really read price accurately you have to read whether price can break a level or not. It's quite simple but extremely difficult to do. If you can read when price is going to break or hold a level YOU CAN WIN CONSISTENTLY.

Let me emphasis-- to predict price movement YOU NEED SPECIFIC BEHAVIORS THAT ARE PREDICTABLE AND RELIABLE! if you don't have those, reading price is near impossible to read.

Fundamentals help determine price volume and its direction or flow direction.

The time frames of the charts above can be used but I'd suggest trying to focus on the daily candle movement and trying to capture as much of that movement everyday. Using the hourly chart with daily separation chart lines helps you see a broken down movement of the daily candle. Using the five minute chart helps to monitor direction of order flow in real time.

you can trade off of monthly and weekly charts but you still have to understand whether price can hold or break a level and lower time frames give you a better grasp in real time if a level will hold or break--even a 1 minute chart helps to see whether it can hold or break a level in real time and that's extremely important.

It's all about levels holding or breaking-- if a level holds-- look for price to move away from that level-- if it can't the odds are it will retest the held level and try to break it again.

Good luck
  • #1,200
  • Oct 18, 2018 8:32am Oct 18, 2018 8:32am
I make my price predictions based on where traders are executing the trade and what have been the reaction before, let me draw in example.
Example A you can see that the sellers are coming in at the top of the range and buyers coming at the bottom of the range so it makes sense for the sellers to take profit at the bottom of the range because this is where the buyers came in last time right?
Example B you can see that the sellers are coming in way lower than the last swing so they must be expecting to push the price lower also so the profit will be lower area.
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