(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

You pretty much nailed it straight to the point.

Disinformation / Misinformation

Goes without saying that the amount of disinformation in trading is one big problem and the scale of it has no comparision to majority of business and sectors. Whether its intentional spreading of disinformation or just spreading due to lack of understand on subjects, the damage is very real and one big factor contributing to traders struggling in this field.
Trader that wants to advance and keep evolving in this game needs to do one very crutial thing that most will not do, its to stress test the opinions or strategies. Majority of trading strategies are usually very simple and thus very easy to test, especially indicator based strategies. Jumping into strategy and thinking that anything that author presents should be a truth and fact is a dangerous way to play this game, majority of strategies are non performing. There is no surprise there, same goes for any inovative business sector, 90% of business strategies will be non performing and eventually end with a failure within a year, thats just what the reality is, and trading is no different.

Now in order to confirm or disprove the consistency of something test needs to be done. Internet is full of misleading informations presented by thousands of traders that lay out the damage within sector day by day and for one to limit the scale of damage its really important to straight forward stress test any opinion or strategy right away from day one to limit the wasted time.
In order to do that stress test needs to be carefully and objectivelly structured, especially for price action strategies, indicator strategies are pretty much straight forward, and same for fundamental strategies.

Bellow are listed some quick random searches i did about several "expert" traders who are completly misleading the public with presenting misinformation. I wont be naming names, as that is cowardly thing to do without one having chance to defend himself, but i will point out strategies and opinions on subjects, that are just straight forward wrong.

"High probability trade". This is often rotating subject that many traders will post without actually really having a high probability setup at all. Anyone following such statement without testing it will be a blind man following a blind man.
Thus to see again, one needs to execute a test.

Strategy 1. High probability indicator, when crossover happens there is "high probability" that there will be large trend shift. Since i stress tested this indicator really threrally over almost 1000 counted samples, the data shows complete in-consistency and the term "high probabilty" is just straightforward misinformation or disinformation. Its quite mind boggling that 50.000 people follow this individuals strategy and none of them actually did any significant test and showing the results.
In fact noone even is posting any gains or loses, because the strategy is extremelly high TF strategy on monthly and weekly charts delivering very few plays every year, which is a big problem as that individual will be able to keep in the dark all those follower for a long time, before the faith of strategy is revealed.


Strategy 2. "High probability " morning star. This one is wrong not just on one stance but on two. First thing is that this pattern does not perform with consistency of high performance at all. Far from that. Second thing is that stress testing 3 candle structure is a very very subjective test with a lot of bad data, structure needs to be broken down into much more data if test was to show any objectivity. Thus no matter what the test says, its not even worth listening to data in first place.



Strategy 3. "100% accurancy strategy" with Stocastic bump with lower highs along down trend. Super easy to test, and confirm that that is nowhere near the truth.


Strategy 4. "High probability " MA and stocastic strategy. Test shows the probability rate of consistent performance is bellow 25% (the rest are fakes and poor deliveries) which is on quite the oposite scale of "high probability". A high probability term should indicate at least 70% chance.




The strategies above were picked randomly in May when i did a quick tests over weekend, thus the data points that there is a sea out there of misinformation if all of 4 randomly picked strategies are far from what authors say in terms of behaviour performance.


Thing is that it might seem like once you start testing and uncovering data that one should become very untrust-worthy of people in general, but in reality thats not what happens, what happens is that trader is then able to very quickly on spot tell from different things who is and who isnt trust worthy. Once you gain that edge, you never stop thinking in that way. And the edge simply comes from stress testing.

Bumping AWX as the main play next week. Will bump it further over next days, priority focus.

Hi Wachturm!
Thanks for your input. True first points are subjective and have different effect on everyone. I will just clarify how they influnence myself.

The 1st (stress level)and 2nd (fear of missing out) point are very close:
Position size is the first factor: it may look insignificant on a micro 100$ account, but if you trade average size account of 50k , for a 3 pips SL (normal on M1 trade) your lot size will be 33 lots (for 2% risk per trade). You cant remain calm when you see the intraday volatility plays with your position.
Then lets add the 2nd factor: the intraday spikes, spread widdening, news ("planed" announcements, unplaned disasters) which can take you out anytime in a matter of a second.
The fear of missing out is also mixed with the fear of losing and fear of uncertainty, which is caused by the quick moves which are many times faster than a human brain can process. Result is missing good setups, closing trades earlier and getting surprised by the market. All of this reinforses these fears. Once you are frustrated, then you are done (yolo mode)
Another point is spread. You need to watch spread when you enter and when you exit. Especially news times or rollover. What if spread widdens when you want to exit? What will you do?
Another point i forgot is execution and fill. The more your account grows the more lots you will be trading. At 33 lots per trade you cant trade for few pips. You get slipped often. Maybe for 33 lots you get 1-2 pips slippage. If you add spread and commission... So you are limited with size on LTF, unless you are institutional trader or have very deep pockets for A book account.

TRD

Hey TRD,
thanks for your reply. I see what you mean. Yes there are spikes, spread widenings and stuff, but we know that so we can be prepared for that. 2% per trade would mean stress for me too. On LTF a-quality-setups I use 0.5% and on b-quality even lower, 0.2 - 0.3 %. The positive expectancy will play out over 100s/1000s of trades and those small wins will add up quite nicely, so no need to stress myself with bigger risk.

The other side of the coin is, that those spikes can also work in our advantage. Sometimes a squeeze accelerates to a multiple R profit in a couple of seconds.

Spreads and commissions can be a problem on LTFs, yes. I skip a lot of setups because of that and some assets arent tradable at all. Again, no need to force things.

You can get 1-2 pips slippage, but I dont think that is because of your 33 lots.

Looking forward to your HTF setups Have a nice sunday

just sharing some trades in spotfx i am in and some on the watchlist.
just to clarify: i am not looking for perfect setups. Maybe many are not in line with Jan rules. i have many other trades on many other instruments which i am not going to post here because they are taken based on other approaches.
Dont try to copy trades, because i got also a lot of losses. You may burn your accout quick.

Few large gappers today on equites, coming for first 30 min of open for potential 10 second continuation plays.

AWX priority focus, squeezed further higher to almost 40 on pre market. Chances are this will crash really hard, it only needs to show some signs today or over next days.
SSLJ second biggest gapper.

SSLJ long covered for gains, took it straight on first minute of open, large gapper and a huge imbalance of orders on the bid side straight on near the open and after. Market makers ganged on the bid on level 2 and thus jumped in.

MYND bid stacking 2.04 atm.

MYND long covered for 3 R gain the rest break even, 2.06 bid stacked very well 50k shares held few times as the sellers tested on bid. Will post videos for this patterns since its hard to explain them just trough words or pictures.

2 trades straight from gates open.

Some minutes earlier EURUSD delivered on pullback leg rotation.

AMD on focus hot momentum , in fresh all time highs, currently testing pre market highs could be a ripper of the day.

BSX supply on track with alert. Order ready at X,62.

BSX secondary account long covered for 0.8 R loss. On main got reentry at 62 on up trust and covered for 0.5 R gain in total. Break even overall.

PHM pullback leg rotation on track, if HH is baked on momentum it could bake upward move.

TMUS also set alert.

AUDJPY could pop, M15 setup.

hey Wachturn,

thanks for your reply. I am glad you found a way how to profit efficiently from LTFs. You have probably back and forward tested it and have the appropriate mindset and timing for it. You have my admiration. There is not much point of arguing about what is better, as long we both make money and are confident about what we do.
In order not to waste much time on printing screenshots and posting them I decided to copy trade from one spot FX account to another demo and attach it as trade explorer.
Trades are from last 7 days. So you can see they do not occure very rarely. All trades have SL and I rarely take trades less than 2R.
Maybe can help someone

TRD

DE30

PHM faded, no play.