(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad | Page 253 | Metals Mine

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Trading using average rotation of swings (ARS)? 21 replies

1 trade per pair per year 6 replies

multiple systems per pair/multiple pairs per system? 3 replies

Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies

Attachments: (binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad
Exit Attachments

(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

  • #5,041
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:04pm Jul 24, 2018 12:04pm
Russian rubble again spiking on US presidents comments, again more talking without substance. Placing a very soft bearish macro looking for markets to correct current move, probably not worth tracking unless some decent demand takeout setup appears.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pok72.png Size: 71 KB
  • #5,042
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:05pm Jul 24, 2018 12:05pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} DE also to keep eye on supply currently being absorbed, bulls are trying to initiate breakout.
DE30 faded, no break. No play.
  • #5,043
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:07pm Jul 24, 2018 12:07pm
USDMXN is a maybe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pok75.png Size: 75 KB
  • #5,044
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:13pm Jul 24, 2018 12:13pm
Quoting janpec1000
USDMXN is a maybe. {image}
USDMXN , was few seconds too slow to initiate an order. Target baked. Lets see if anyone can point out why this setup was likely (if it was) to deliver straight forward move, what strenght the structural info gave...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pok76.png Size: 61 KB
  • #5,045
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:14pm Jul 24, 2018 12:14pm
Bitcoin likely a candidate to bake rotation upwards.
  • #5,046
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:20pm Jul 24, 2018 12:20pm
Quoting Wachturm
CVX {image}
1/2 sold for loss, 1/2 sold breakeven... disappointing
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 24.07.18-CVXM1-exit.png Size: 37 KB
  • #5,047
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:25pm Jul 24, 2018 12:25pm
NZDUSD
  • #5,048
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:29pm Jul 24, 2018 12:29pm
gbpaud
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 22652569744f95f50bfdf2d8609465c3.png Size: 56 KB
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #5,049
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:32pm Jul 24, 2018 12:32pm
Quoting Wachturm
{quote} 1/2 sold for loss, 1/2 sold breakeven... disappointing {image}
Cutting loses properly on high quality plays is the true test of discipline, look at what you did from that perspective.
  • #5,050
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:34pm Jul 24, 2018 12:34pm
Quoting jakucha
gbpaud {image}
Nice find but mind to restructure this play in the way you look at it. Forget about that trendline, thats not whats important, structure it from pullback leg rotation after strong impulse.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pok80.png Size: 66 KB
  • #5,051
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:37pm Jul 24, 2018 12:37pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Nice find but mind to restructure this play in the way you look at it. Forget about that trendline, thats not whats important, structure it from pullback leg rotation after strong impulse. {image}
Agreed, gotcha. I've just spotted the structure and did not take the time to draw with paint as I saw momo and wanted to post quickly before the fact.
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #5,052
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:48pm Jul 24, 2018 12:48pm
Quoting Wachturm
NZDUSD
sold for gains
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 24.07.18-NZDUSDM1.png Size: 53 KB
  • #5,053
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:49pm Jul 24, 2018 12:49pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Cutting loses properly on high quality plays is the true test of discipline, look at what you did from that perspective.
yes you´re right, thanks for that
  • #5,054
  • Jul 24, 2018 12:52pm Jul 24, 2018 12:52pm
Alright so lets see what markets gave today especially on equity side, in terms of bottom rotations with volatility shifts or general behaviour changes after established symmetry was broken. Each day many plays come like this, but key overall is to focus on middle or higher quality plays.

Its not about watching every tick to see or "predict" where asset might bottom, is about knowing 100% ahead what one is trying to find, and once the established symmetry is spotted, then trader should know ahead what price has to do in order to establish proper setup that might have a change of bottoming....all of which has already been explained many times before.
The key is to focus only on those 20-30% of bottoms that come under specific conditions described by the rules on thread.

Its about comparing context to context, leg to leg thats where changes come.

(WFC should be looked from 1 TF higher to make sense of pullback leg setup a bit more clearer, its zoomed in to see whats happening in details on each leg, and why exactly did pullback leg rotated the way it did).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pop90.png Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pop91.png Size: 74 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pop92.png Size: 75 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pop94.png Size: 75 KB
  • #5,055
  • Jul 24, 2018 1:09pm Jul 24, 2018 1:09pm
GBPAUD bought the break .7725 / SL .7715 / TP .7740

lets see
  • #5,056
  • Jul 24, 2018 1:13pm Jul 24, 2018 1:13pm

Slope of down trend - accumulation or distribution


One quick way to spot where soft rounding bottom might appear is at down trends that under accumulation phase of counter orders, and usually a good sign or clue for that is the slope of trend itself, if trend is slowly rounding with soft exponential curve thats usually it.
On level 2 order flow it is nearly impossible to find such process due to plenty of hidden buyers or sellers who are very often the main participants on such patterns (ARCA, dark pools) thus this is mainly a setup to focus on chart only.

Key info to observe is consistency of with trend legs and their strenght. For example in default down trend bear legs will be very strong, and if there is no rounding in clear progress chances are distribution is taking place and thus its unlikely to expect bottom, unless sudden big volatility shift takes place.
However if strenght of bear legs in down trend suddenly shifts to weakness that might be a clue.

Goes without saying the curves i draw on charts arent there to express any sub-lack of my drawing ability, they are there strictly to show the math in the performance of price data based on tilt changes of curve / line. It has actual edge info in it.

Conceptually:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pop96.png Size: 66 KB



Example:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pop98.png Size: 75 KB


  • #5,057
  • Jul 24, 2018 1:14pm Jul 24, 2018 1:14pm
Quoting Wachturm
GBPAUD bought the break .7725 / SL .7715 / TP .7740 lets see
7712 should be cut point for it, based on lows progression.
  • #5,058
  • Jul 24, 2018 1:18pm Jul 24, 2018 1:18pm
Again to repeat....heavy priority focus on Turkish lira, this might turn into play of the month very easily. If pullback leg structure starts to bake, it can have a go but without London / Istanbul overlap its hard to judge how quick can it go, defenetly one advantage of Asia bake is that central bank is likely at the trenches digging deep and not watching the horizon, both pros and cons can be named for a play.

X,8900 as line in the sand, up to everyone to establish for themselves risk levels on it and whether to play it on momentum bake or at any play, or if to wait for London.
Personally adding to size already.
  • #5,059
  • Jul 24, 2018 1:26pm Jul 24, 2018 1:26pm
Quoting Wachturm
GBPAUD bought the break .7725 / SL .7715 / TP .7740 lets see
sold for loss

cu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 24.07.18-GBPAUDM5-exit.png Size: 61 KB
  • #5,060
  • Jul 24, 2018 1:32pm Jul 24, 2018 1:32pm
Quoting janpec1000
Slope of down trend - accumulation or distribution One quick way to spot where soft rounding bottom might appear is at down trends that under accumulation phase of counter orders, and usually a good sign or clue for that is the slope of trend itself, if trend is slowly rounding with soft exponential curve thats usually it. On level 2 order flow it is nearly impossible to find such process due to plenty of hidden buyers or sellers who are very often the main participants on such patterns (ARCA, dark pools) thus this is mainly a setup to focus on...
AUDUSD on accumulation phase, potential bottom to be established, needs more micro clues for entries however.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_pop100.png Size: 52 KB
12 traders viewing now