(binned per thread starter's request) Market bottom rotation trad

EURGBP

Hello Jan, here are my new charts. As always, thank you for your comments.

Chart 1
Got stopped out after setting new stop loss. TP is reach after being stopped out.


Chart 2
Change in volatility when approaching shelf


These are all in observation

Chart 3


Chart 4


Chart 5

EURAUD on track.

Hey Ken, decent overall with exception of setup 4 and 5.
Setup 4 if you look at it from a bit higher perspective its easily noticable that the strenght of impulse only matches the overall volatility in whole structure, there is no significant strong momentum ahead of it (which can also be noticed from H1).
And the structure overall did not provide enough symmetry either in terms of how lows and highs are structured. You really want to see that impulsive leg ahead of structure to pop up.

Setup 5 is not supply takeout, its straightforward pullback leg rotation. Always make sure that distances of legs in structure make sense to what you are comparing them to. That setup would not be played as supply takeout since the depth of drop and rally upwards is far stronger and bigger than the condensed structure that followed. That structure does fit into pullback leg in context of that strong momentum ahead of it.

EURGBP M1

edit: not enough legs, no play

When you first opened your thread months ago I took a look at the first few pages of your methodology and it seemed a bit complicated so I moved on. My mate Ensale suggested that I take another look so I did. Wow, the info in your thread just blew me away, such detail and it is very well written with clear explanations.

Sorry it took me so long to get back here. I will be a frequent visitor from now on. Keep up the great work.

Citigroup

C

Darn hope you got in, well spotted. I was too late for a 2 minutes.

Sure, great to have you on.

PPE is a maybe, but probably a pass, not a strong enough momentum leg ahead of structure.

C / Citigroup for A quality play , missed the trade howevever as pointed above, went in late on with market order, and canceled and sold at BE, was an obvious fear of missing out attempt, happens rarely to me but this was one of it. On a hind sight would have only gained 30% gains of full position (if filled properly on HH bake) as would have held for larger target than the upward move delivered.

m30 rotating for ACd, need to patiently wait.........

On currency side USDTRY was today major disappointment as the demand eventually failed and the bull play is now out of consideration. Was one of best potential macro plays on the list. Page scrapped and waiting now for new one to establish, its a just a matter of time.

It would be hard to prove if this was the work of TCB but the behaviour of every up spike is very curious and rather unusual, as it was sold with progressively heavier sizes within the whole structure, especially considering the case that structure was pointing toward 5.000 target which is current and probably the only red line in the sand that TCB is guarding with USD reserves. A speculation only....but it could as well be true, there was such case in 2015 with peg break on HKG, same setup, same behaviour, but at there the central bank failed to beat the markets.

m1 demand failure, entry too early because of strong momentum, but will let it be, next time, try pending order.........

SLed, not symmetric enough, not a setup,
why i didn't see it when entry.......

thought 70 would be a reasonable target..

m1 rotate,

will watch how price react to the upper purple level, might got beaten there........

i actually realised that my setups often look weird when compared to JP's...... might be symmetry problem from my read........

Try going back to some previous replys i got to you, you are making and repeating two mistakes in general. One is that you are following too weak supply zones usually with max 2 highs in them and often not very symmetrical, additional to that sometimes also without any significant momentum move into supply on that last leg.

The second mistake is that the structure needs to be condensed and for that you need a structure where legs are somewhat similar in size. There should be legs on initial part of structure that have size X and the legs on later portion of structure with size 5X, that removes the symmetry and also consistency of supply or demand.

If you look your last posted setup on the last leg there is no significant momentum in the move towards supply. Its pretty much symmetrical or even weaker to its previous bear leg, on every supply takeout you want to see as much as possible targeted attempt and that means the bull leg should stand out in its strenght compared to all previous legs in structure. Its not 100% required thing but it certainly removes the fakes quite some.
The only exception where momentum move is not needed is if price is stalling around supply or demand and building micro shelf or expressing weakness, this is where exception can be made.

On your GBPAUD example you had too much lows and highs disconnected from the action, so the demand you were following is just a basically one low, which is not enough. It falls under second problem explained above. If that zone was to be valid it should look like as image bellow, depth of those initial middle lows should go all the way down to demand.

Generally i have been there and most traders are there making what you are doing which is from my obvservations 90% a problem of lack of time to dedicate to charts and then coming to the charts quickly and trying to find some. Good setups take patience, try to be a bit more patient for good quality plays, its understandable however that everyone values their time and wants some action.

m1 rotate, bad mouse exit my 1st position, so entered again since tp still far.

in hindsight, should not done 2nd entry, the spread is killing me..........