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  • #561
  • Edited 9:11pm Apr 9, 2018 8:40pm | Edited 9:11pm
Quoting jdforex75
Hello Dunstan Thank you for providing the COT report every week!!!!!!!! How can i use this data to improve my trading and will it make a big improvement to my trades?? Please share a link if you can, where i can learn how to trade with the COT report..... Cheers
I wouldn't say that there is a particular way to trade C.O.T. As for the way I use it, I highly recommend you read both

Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report-Larry Williams
The Commitments of Traders Bible-Stephen E. Briese

hint hint(libgen.io)

As of April 9
Commodities Data https://www.dropbox.com/s/zkusbposva...G%7D.xlsb?dl=0
Legacy Report for Forex pairs https://www.dropbox.com/s/uhbvxu75im...X%7D.xlsb?dl=0
  • #562
  • Apr 9, 2018 11:23pm Apr 9, 2018 11:23pm
Quoting forexin101
Based on my COT analysis, this is the bias I will be taking for currencies BUY EURCAD EURCHF EURUSD GBPCAD GBPCHF GBPUSD NZDCAD NZDCHF NZDUSD SELL CADJPY CHFJPY USDJPY
What led you exactly towards a long bias on NZDUSD?
  • #563
  • Apr 10, 2018 5:24am Apr 10, 2018 5:24am
Quoting jdforex75
Hello Dunstan Thank you for providing the COT report every week!!!!!!!! How can i use this data to improve my trading and will it make a big improvement to my trades?? Please share a link if you can, where i can learn how to trade with the COT report..... Cheers
Hi JD,

Actually my whole thread is about how cot analysis can help us in trading, so first of all I'd advise you to start reading the beginning of the thread.
I personally have got a lot information from the cot analysis service I use - COTbase.com. They have made some pretty good educational videos that you could watch:
Inserted Video


The following links could also be helpful.
COT Basics
COT Signals

MoshiM has also suggested some good literature that can be very helpful.

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #564
  • Apr 10, 2018 5:40am Apr 10, 2018 5:40am
Quoting MoshiM
{quote} I wouldn't say that there is a particular way to trade C.O.T. As for the way I use it, I highly recommend you read both Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report-Larry Williams The Commitments of Traders Bible-Stephen E. Briese hint hint(libgen.io) As of April 9 Commodities Data https://www.dropbox.com/s/zkusbposva...G%7D.xlsb?dl=0 Legacy Report for Forex pairs https://www.dropbox.com/s/uhbvxu75im...X%7D.xlsb?dl=0
Really helpful brother...
  • #565
  • Apr 10, 2018 9:32pm Apr 10, 2018 9:32pm
If you wanted to calculate what percentage a certain group's net position is of Open Interest for forecasting purposes, would it be more prudent to use the total Open Interest or Open Interest minus spreading?
  • #566
  • Apr 11, 2018 5:43am Apr 11, 2018 5:43am
Quoting MoshiM
If you wanted to calculate what percentage a certain group's net position is of Open Interest for forecasting purposes, would it be more prudent to use the total Open Interest or Open Interest minus spreading?
I personally don't calculate this to tell you the truth... I look separately at the two --> the net values and then the Total OI with respect to price.

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #567
  • Edited 9:41pm Apr 13, 2018 5:46pm | Edited 9:41pm
-Just thought I should upload the updated versions of the reports in case anyone missed them from last week.
-Instructions for keeping them updated on your own are included.
-Also do note that I'm having a bit of trouble with the disaggregated report as it sometimes corrupts from what I assume is the result of the amount of conditional formatting on there.So if it acts up revert to an older version and remove the formatting.
-If anyone here knows how to code in VBA please automate copying and pasting from the query and then re-upload.
Attached File(s)
File Type: rar C.O.T_{Disaggregated}.rar   3.7 MB | 737 downloads
File Type: rar C.O.T_{TradersInFinancialFutures}.rar   3.0 MB | 702 downloads
File Type: rar C.O.T_Legacy{FX}.rar   3.6 MB | 854 downloads
  • #568
  • Apr 16, 2018 6:05am Apr 16, 2018 6:05am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 10%, SS – 22% /
Although we have this bearish cot change signal, I’d stay away from any short trade. Volume and OI analysis is supporting further rallies in the market and the extreme isn’t that significant either.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Interesting to see such a bearish extreme in S&P, when we have nothing similar in Nasdaq and the Dow… tricky situation that’s for sure. Nevertheless if someone is considering shorting here, they may be happy with the fact that the cot report is backing the trade.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C - 194, LS – 196 report COT extreme /
As prices gone higher, the bearish cot extreme has also become larger – no surprise here.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Futures Trading
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report15_S&P-500.png Size: 126 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report15_GBP.png Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report15_Rough Rice.png Size: 114 KB
  • #569
  • Apr 16, 2018 10:18am Apr 16, 2018 10:18am
If anyone was wondering why the Indexes in the Legacy and Disaggregated reports I uploaded do not oscillate within the traditional 0-100 range, it is because I have set the defined names used in the formulas so that the net position corresponding with that week's index value is not used in the look-back period. I believe this would allow for a better analysis of the extreme values if there is a sudden and drastic change in the net positioning. Furthermore if the previous week's index records a value of say -30 and the next value is 1, it doesn't mean that positions have drastically changed as the net position from the -30 week is now included in the index range.

A downside to this is that it may over-exaggerate the numbers in the Movement Index. Or perhaps not. I'd be more than happy to discuss it.


---I am constantly making changes and improvements to these documents( I've got the copy/paste macro completed)
---If there is a particular contract or function you would like added or would like instructions on adding/editing your own data from the cftc to fit inside the doc that I made then please just say so.
  • #570
  • Apr 16, 2018 1:30pm Apr 16, 2018 1:30pm
Quoting Dunstan
{quote} Hi JD, Actually my whole thread is about how cot analysis can help us in trading, so first of all I'd advise you to start reading the beginning of the thread. I personally have got a lot information from the cot analysis service I use - COTbase.com. They have made some pretty good educational videos that you could watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w7A...Z_qWCbu4c3n3v3 The following links could also be helpful. COT...

Thank you for the useful information - i will start my research now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #571
  • Apr 17, 2018 9:22am Apr 17, 2018 9:22am
Quoting Dunstan
{quote} I personally don't calculate this to tell you the truth... I look separately at the two --> the net values and then the Total OI with respect to price. All the best, Dunstan
In the time that you've spent analyzing COT data have you noticed anything in regards to future price based on opened positions after contract expiry?
  • #572
  • Apr 18, 2018 3:55am Apr 18, 2018 3:55am
Quoting MoshiM
{quote} In the time that you've spent analyzing COT data have you noticed anything in regards to future price based on opened positions after contract expiry?
I always follow the continuous charts and trade mainly the liquid contracts (normally this is the front contract /the one that expires the earliest/). I roll over my positions to the next expiry when the front contract looses volume. I think the majority of futures traders do the same

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #573
  • Edited 10:40am Apr 18, 2018 9:17am | Edited 10:40am
Quoting Dunstan
{quote} I always follow the continuous charts and trade mainly the liquid contracts (normally this is the front contract /the one that expires the earliest/). I roll over my positions to the next expiry when the front contract looses volume. I think the majority of futures traders do the same All the best, Dunstan
What I was trying to ask is whether or not you've noticed if this rollover period could affect prices or make it more likely for a trend to continue or reverse since market participants don't necessarily have to roll over all of their positions to the next contract for example if we only examined Non-Commercials in JPY (last expiry was March 18 we could see that from March 13 to March 20, they more than halved their short positions but left their longs relatively unchanged). Something similar also happened in the AUD and the NZD around the same date and CHF,GBP,CAD on the Commercial side.
  • #574
  • Apr 20, 2018 12:46am Apr 20, 2018 12:46am
Quoting MoshiM
{quote} What I was trying to ask is whether or not you've noticed if this rollover period could affect prices or make it more likely for a trend to continue or reverse since market participants don't necessarily have to roll over all of their positions to the next contract for example if we only examined Non-Commercials in JPY (last expiry was March 18 we could see that from March 13 to March 20, they more than halved their short positions but left their longs relatively unchanged). Something similar also happened in the AUD and the NZD around the...
Ohhh ok, I understand you now... Well actually in certain markets major changes can happen at the time of rollover, I have witnessed this. Not necessarily in currencies. Commercials are more likely to leave their positions to expire, but this is due to their hedging type attitude. To give you a fundamentally easy to understand example... Let's say that a corn producer sees future prices of corn to be high, meaning he is definitely making money /knows his cost per unit - it is much lower than the current price of the futures contract he is planning to sell/. He then sell X amount of corn contracts and at expiry simply delivers the corn he produces. This means that at purchase, he became short in the futures market --> increasing the net short positions of Commercials / adding to OI, but at expiry he fulfills his obligation for the contract(s) and thus his "contribution" to OI disappears.

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #575
  • Apr 20, 2018 1:34am Apr 20, 2018 1:34am
Finally a decent thread on real trading although in your options how much can COThelp the day trader?
I have found it a hinderence. Great for macro investing and portfolios infact a MUST. But for trading? Not sure how it helps.
  • #576
  • Apr 20, 2018 1:59am Apr 20, 2018 1:59am
Quoting MLeslie
Finally a decent thread on real trading although in your options how much can COThelp the day trader? I have found it a hinderence. Great for macro investing and portfolios infact a MUST. But for trading? Not sure how it helps.
Hi Leslie,

Truly, cot analysis is not something that will give a major support for short term traders (it is a weekly data). If you are a swing trader on the otherhand, someone willing to hold positions for several weeks, perhaps even months, than analyzing the cot data is a MUST!

I have been trading for about 18 years now (all sorts of instruments, all type of style, over different time horizons...), I have met many traders, have read countless books... what I have came to realize is this --> most people start their trading "career" as day-traders --> everyone is sure that by reading a few article, taking some courses, reading a few book on technical analysis and voila: they will become Masters in trading Well most people don't survive a year in the market. They have no discipline and they are setting totally unrealistic goals. I too have gone the path and I must admit, I wasn't doing too well when I was holding positions for minutes and hours... of course, there were very good times, but in the long run, the system did not perform well. I came to realize that I need to change my mindset and to start focusing on the big picture. /ok, I could go on and on here, but I got to go..../ to sum it up: I think if you are a serious trader, who wishes to make money in the long run, you have be willing to switch to longer time horizons. Patience is one of the keys to success If you haven't yet read it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_Wizards I advise everyone to get familiar with those Traders, who have succeeded and their performance shows they know what they are doing.

Got to run now, sorry...

All the best,
Dunstan



All the best,
Dunstan
  • #577
  • Apr 20, 2018 2:59am Apr 20, 2018 2:59am
Quoting Dunstan
{quote} Hi Leslie, Truly, cot analysis is not something that will give a major support for short term traders (it is a weekly data). If you are a swing trader on the otherhand, someone willing to hold positions for several weeks, perhaps even months, than analyzing the cot data is a MUST! I have been trading for about 18 years now (all sorts of instruments, all type of style, over different time horizons...), I have met many traders, have read countless books... what I have came to realize is this --> most people start their trading "career" as...
"I have been trading for about 18 years now"

Take a Bow Dunstan...
  • #578
  • Apr 20, 2018 3:20am Apr 20, 2018 3:20am
Quoting Dunstan
{quote} Hi Leslie, Truly, cot analysis is not something that will give a major support for short term traders (it is a weekly data). If you are a swing trader on the otherhand, someone willing to hold positions for several weeks, perhaps even months, than analyzing the cot data is a MUST! I have been trading for about 18 years now (all sorts. of instruments, all type of style, over different time horizons...), I have met many traders, have read countless books... what I have came to realize is this --> most people start their trading "career"...
Cheers for the post.
Yea very true re cot and macro plays. Amazing I've seen them.
But Imo Day trading is very possible. It's All about liquidity. Very different game to investing agreed.

There's no education out there about day trading. Nlone that is 100% correct. There's bits and pieces but NO ONE HAS PUT THE PUZZLE TOGETHER. No one THAT IS talking anyway. you have the whole picture or you'll get burned badly ha as we have all experienced
  • #579
  • Apr 20, 2018 5:56am Apr 20, 2018 5:56am
Quoting MLeslie
{quote} Cheers for the post. Yea very true re cot and macro plays. Amazing I've seen them. But Imo Day trading is very possible. It's All about liquidity. Very different game to investing agreed. There's no education out there about day trading. Nlone that is 100% correct. There's bits and pieces but NO ONE HAS PUT THE PUZZLE TOGETHER. No one THAT IS talking anyway. you have the whole picture or you'll get burned badly ha as we have all experienced
Well yes, that is true... Let me be clear: I am not saying that you can't make money day-trading, but it is very very hard and requires a lot of discipline and of course you need to be able to take that stresses that comes with it. I believe I am not that kind of a Trader

All the best,
Dunstan
  • #580
  • Apr 23, 2018 8:03am Apr 23, 2018 8:03am
Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS – 14%, SS – 31% /
Bearish COT change signal combined with an extreme bearish cot extreme. Eyes on rough Rice.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All time bullish cot extreme in Coffee! Let the chart speak for itself

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
LS at a bearish cot extreme (all time) suggesting prices should turn downwards.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Futures Trading
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Report16_EUR.png Size: 108 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report16_Coffee.png Size: 116 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Report16_Rough Rice.png Size: 117 KB
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