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Why it is possible to predict price movement?

  • #1,021
  • Mar 20, 2018 5:01pm Mar 20, 2018 5:01pm

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  • #1,022
  • Mar 20, 2018 5:09pm Mar 20, 2018 5:09pm
Quoting dawidforex
{image} {image}
good to see you, David

I am impressed

I wish you &
  • #1,023
  • Mar 20, 2018 5:36pm Mar 20, 2018 5:36pm
Quoting kk007
This sounds a simple question, but it is not indeed. There are a lot of trading methods claim working. Nevertheless, I wonder in general what logic these methods based on in predicting price movement. Can anyone give me a good answer? Thanks, kk007
Prediction of price movement improves over time as skill regarding the markets gets better.

There's fundamental analysis, sentiment analysis, technical analysis ... all of which are VERY important.

Fundamental analysis is (IMO) the most important because over the long term the markets are driven by the fundamentals.

However emotions are highly important and how traders are reacting can cause pairs to move quite contrary to the fundamentals. This is particularly true when the markets are fearful and risk averse.

Then there's technical analysis which plays an important role because as traders have known for a few hundred years markets tend to move mathematically.

Predicting movement into the future is about becoming skilled with analyzing those three things accurately.

And yes, accurately making that prediction is possible.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,024
  • Mar 20, 2018 6:43pm Mar 20, 2018 6:43pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} Prediction of price movement improves over time as skill regarding the markets gets better. There's fundamental analysis, sentiment analysis, technical analysis ... all of which are VERY important. Fundamental analysis is (IMO) the most important because over the long term the markets are driven by the fundamentals. However emotions are highly important and how traders are reacting can cause pairs to move quite contrary to the fundamentals. This is particularly true when the markets are fearful and risk averse. Then there's technical analysis...
Most traders aren't precision traders. They work off of probabilities or in lay terms "they guess". That takes guts and the ability to deal with extreme situations. One needs a certain mental strength to deal with the highs and lows of trading that way. Not to mention the uncertainty or not knowing where price is going.

Technical analysis is the ability to determine the direction of order flow and trade in that direction. Most traders don't trade based on order flow. Instead they
look for support and resistance areas. If you don't understand the direction of order flow you will lose. Being able to manage your loses is really the most difficult aspect of trading.

Why is trading so hard? This is a significant tip--- most people don't look at trading this way. Losing or winning comes down to a very thin line or level. If you don't get the direction right YOU LOSE UNLESS price comes back and moves in your direction by accident. If you trade long and the flows are short you lose. If you trade short and the flows are long-- you lose. And that tiny thin price level where you enter determines if you are with the flows or not thus If you're winning or not.

Price will either hit your stop or go into a huge draw down if you chose wrong. Either way even if price comes back YOU ARE IN A LOSing POSITION. Let me emphasize, its all about one little tiny level where you enter and if your trade is in the direction of the dominant orders and how they are flowing. If you get the flows wrong YOU LOSE. If you get them right you win. It's that simple. LOL

The good news is if you're lucky and trade with the flows YOU WIN. The next trade problem is knowing how to manage your trade. And unless price moves in a straight line trade management is difficult. Why? because you don't understand how the orders flow. The bottom line is if you understand order flow and trade with it YOU CAN NEVER LOSE. But few understand it and most don't believe its possible to know its direction. No matter how anyone trades the bottom is you have to trade with the flows otherwise you lose. Traders do it in various ways. Just realize that 95 out of 100 traders lose and only 5 win. So this is serious business. It's not a joke and it isn't easy.

The problem with support and resistance is the same. Just because you have a support or resistance area --it tells you nothing about real time order flow. So it becomes a guessing game--WILL THAT LEVEL HOLD OR BREAK. If it holds you win. If it breaks you lose unless you don't have a stop and it comes back. Regardless there are traders that win using this method. Just realize only 5% out of 100% win. And if you by chance get the support area right you still have a management problem. You're always determining when to exit and if you don't exit when the flows change-- you could lose all your profits and more.

For a starting trader I'd recommend trading fundamentals, especially if you find someone that's really good at understanding them and how they move the market. Trading purely on technicals I think is more difficult and will take longer. Especially if you trade support and resistance. But understanding technicals is essential ever for a fundamental trader. Price flows reflect fundamentals if you understand their behaviors. But if you understand fundamentals you should have more certainty in your trade direction.

My experience is its rare for someone to trade order flow but I think its the easiest and most rewarding if you can find someone to teach you. The problem is I don't know of any and I've tried to find them. I had to learn myself and it took forever.

Just understand when it comes down to the most basic part of trading whether you use fundamentals, patterns, price action or indicators what you're really trying to do is trade in the direction of order flow. You want to find information or behaviors that you can trust in. When you have behaviors or info that is reliable and trustworthy you can predict order flow direction.

I'm not trying to discourage anyone but offer better direction than what's out there. I'm not sure if there are any really accurate technical traders that are willing to teach their methods. But I think information for fundamental information is more available and some even free.

Whatever you do don't trade money until you have a clear and proven method. It's not necessary and trading live without sound understand is just stupid and throwing your money away. Some get lucky but most don't.
  • #1,025
  • Mar 20, 2018 7:24pm Mar 20, 2018 7:24pm
Quoting ztop
Most traders aren't precision traders. They work off of probabilities or in lay terms "they guess".
Unless you have the kind of trading account that can force market movement ALL prediction, no matter how much of a precision trader someone happens to be, is about probabilities and guesses.

My point is that your ability to make high probability trades and to make the right guesses improves as your analytical skill improves.

Predictive market analysis actually is a skill that can be developed and improved upon and the better at it that you become the more profitable of a trader you become as well.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,026
  • Mar 20, 2018 7:28pm Mar 20, 2018 7:28pm
Quoting Custos
{quote} it is not possible to predict price movements. If it was, then wallstreet wouldn't have lost during the burst of the housing bubble. And they are supposed to be professionals with endless amounts of resources.
That's not why they lost during the burst of the housing bubble. They lost during the burst of the housing bubble because many of them couldn't see the for the . They just weren't capable of understanding the systemic risk. They were professionals and had vast resources but that isn't always enough to be head and shoulders above the rest.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #1,027
  • Mar 20, 2018 8:26pm Mar 20, 2018 8:26pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} Unless you have the kind of trading account that can force market movement ALL prediction, no matter how much of a precision trader someone happens to be, is about probabilities and guesses. My point is that your ability to make high probability trades and to make the right guesses improves as your analytical skill improves. Predictive market analysis actually is a skill that can be developed and improved upon and the better at it that you become the more profitable of a trader you become as well.
My experience is different from yours. You can only express what you know not what I know. Can you read price momentum? You probably don't have a clue what it is or how to gauge it in real time.

Tell me what price has to do to trend bullish? Can't can you. Well I can. Tell me what price has to do to trend bearish? Can't can you? Well I can. There is some judgement involved but you don't have a clue what I can and can't do and to be honest you probably never will. Like I said it took me forever to do what I can do. I can read price in real time. I had to develop my own way of reading price to do it. You don't have to believe me. It really doesn't matter if you do or don't. But there are people out there looking for real sound advice and I'm giving it. Prove anything I said wrong. Your problem is you don't understand anything about order flow and your comment just confirms it. Believe this. If you trade with the order flow you can never lose, right? What person teaches you how to trade with the flow of orders? If you find anyone that does you better pay him whatever he asks because you only lose when you trade against order flow. Prove me wrong.

Here's another tip Kingjay's first chart above has for the most part has really good area marked on his chart but the real problem is which one's will hold or break and you can only know that by being able to read order flow accurately. The bottom line is YOU WANT TO BE ABLE TO READ ORDER FLOW AND TRADE WITH IT NOT AGAINST IT. If you can, you will be an exceptional trader. And if you don't see the wisdom in that simple statement you're going to find trading extremely difficult.
  • #1,028
  • Mar 20, 2018 8:32pm Mar 20, 2018 8:32pm
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} That's not why they lost during the burst of the housing bubble. They lost during the burst of the housing bubble because many of them couldn't see the for the . They just weren't capable of understanding the systemic risk. They were professionals and had vast resources but that isn't always enough to be head and shoulders above the rest.
THINK Redeflect! If they could have read the order flow accurately they wouldn't have lost but made money. They would be riding on profit. Those that don't know how to read order flow were the ones that lost. They didn't know what the hell was happening and got caught in their ignorance. If you trade with the order flow YOU CAN NEVER LOSE. Prove me wrong. You only lose when you trade against the flows.
  • #1,029
  • Mar 20, 2018 8:42pm Mar 20, 2018 8:42pm
Quoting ztop
{quote} THINK Redeflect! If they could have read the order flow accurately they wouldn't have lost but made money. They would be riding on profit. Those that don't know how to read order flow were the ones that lost. They didn't know what the hell was happening and got caught in their ignorance. If you trade with the order flow YOU CAN NEVER LOSE. Prove me wrong. You only lose when you trade against the flows.
I am much better in seeing than thinking. In view of that let's see some live calls then maybe I can start and learn how and what to think.
Waiting to see some live calls hopefully.

Cheers
  • #1,030
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:03pm Mar 20, 2018 9:03pm
sell
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #1,031
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:06pm Mar 20, 2018 9:06pm
Quote: Tell me how large your stops are and I'll tell you how good a trader you are!
50 Pip stops? means you don't know what you're doing. If you did, you wouldn't need such a large stop.
40 pip stops? means you don't know what you're doing. If you did, you wouldn't need such a large stop.
20 pip stops? means you don't know what you're doing. If you did, you wouldn't need such a large stop.
2 to 5 pip stops?
or can you see when price isn't doing what you want it to do so you get out immediately? Unquote:

I have found this brilliant piece of assessment. I think he is a much better trader than myself and I would definitely be watching him closely now. I mean my assessment is up to 20pips with RRR 1:2 and here is someone more superior of 2-5 pips. Wow almost godlike.
Can't wait to see some live calls.

Cheers
GS
  • #1,032
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:13pm Mar 20, 2018 9:13pm
Quoting genghistar
{quote} I am much better in seeing than thinking. In view of that let's see some live calls then maybe I can start and learn how and what to think. Waiting to see some live calls hopefully. Cheers
I'm not here to teach you what I do. Just offer you sound advice. If you think it out you'll know I'm right. Fundamentals and every method of trading is only trying to predict one thing-- the direction of orders or the trend.

Don't think patterns, or moving averages although they follow the flows, or Bollinger bands or average true range or even fibs or whatever
think how I can trade with the order flow. Think how you can stay on the right side of the flows.

But again the best for beginners is fundamentals. If you understand what news moves the markets up or down-- you can ride it.
If you know it isn't that big of mover, you trade it back to the original trend.

Believe me or not. It's up to you. One thing is for sure, I know my advice is better than anything out there right now. Take care and good luck.
  • #1,033
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:26pm Mar 20, 2018 9:26pm
Quoting ztop
{quote} I'm not here to teach you what I do. Just offer you sound advice. If you think it out you'll know I'm right. Fundamentals and every method of trading is only trying to predict one thing-- the direction of orders or the trend. Don't think patterns, or moving averages although they follow the flows, or Bollinger bands or average true range or even fibs or whatever think how I can trade with the order flow. Think how you can stay on the right side of the flows. But again the best for beginners is fundamentals. If you understand what news moves...
Forgive me Sir I have no doubt you are here to offer SOUND advice and your expertise.
Just love to see some examples of your predicting power.
Excuse me for wanting to see and not knowing to think.

Cheers
  • #1,034
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:34pm Mar 20, 2018 9:34pm
Quoting ztop
{quote} My experience is different from yours. You can only express what you know not what I know.
Actually predicting events that have not happened yet IS ABOUT PROBABILITIES.

It is impossible to be 100% correct, 100% of the time about the prediction of future events.

So yes, I can express that you do not know how to always accurately predict the future.

Want to prove me wrong? It's simple. Put up a trade explorer and over the next 6 months never have a losing trade. Then I'll admit I'm wrong.

If you have even just one single losing trade (and lets face it, you'll have more than that) then you are in fact trading using probabilities of what is likely to happen.
Woohiye is a Lakota Sioux word that means success, or overcoming obstacles
  • #1,035
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:43pm Mar 20, 2018 9:43pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} Actually predicting events that have not happened yet IS ABOUT PROBABILITIES. It is impossible to be 100% correct, 100% of the time about the prediction of future events. So yes, I can express that you do not know how to always accurately predict the future. Want to prove me wrong? It's simple. Put up a trade explorer and over the next 6 months never have a losing trade. Then I'll admit I'm wrong. If you have even just one single losing trade (and lets face it, you'll have more than that) then you are in fact trading using probabilities...
Well some can be 100% correct if they HIDE the losses. You can see it often in some micro TE accounts even in FF.
Hehe.
  • #1,036
  • Mar 20, 2018 9:44pm Mar 20, 2018 9:44pm
While I agree with ztop that fundamentals are essential knowledge for traders. And it is most often overlooked or simply briefly studied.
I do slightlyyy disagree with the emphasis on orderflow thou.

I mean sure if we were banks placing orders for our clients, we will be able to front run those orderflows. Unfortunately, we aren't allowed that luxury.
The kind of orderflows we have are imperfect in a few ways

- It is past orders. (Okay so we may still be able to use past information to make an educated guess about the future.)
- There is no centralized exchange for FX. (Thus what you have might not be representative to the larger population. This is the major handicap here.)

While Im not trying to discredit orderflow entirely (I do believe that it does help make probabalistic guesses when incoporated into a broader analysis), I feel that there may be too much emphasis on the importance of it. Then again, if it works for you, why stop?

Edit: Some typo
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #1,037
  • Mar 20, 2018 10:37pm Mar 20, 2018 10:37pm
Quoting synicz
While I agree with ztop that fundamentals are essential knowledge for traders. And it is most often overlooked or simply briefly studied. I do slightlyyy disagree with the emphasis on orderflow thou. I mean sure if we were banks placing orders for our clients, we will be able to front run those orderflows. Unfortunately, we aren't allowed that luxury. The kind of orderflows we have are imperfect in a few ways - It is past orders. (Okay so we may still be able to use past information to make an educated guess about the future.) - There is no centralized...
and yet every trader in existence is trying to trade with the trend right? If you can see a trend doesn't it make sense you can see order flow? lol
You need to try to figure out how see order flow because if you can't you are going to make a lot of losing trades.

Good job of trying to confuse yourself.
  • #1,038
  • Mar 20, 2018 10:50pm Mar 20, 2018 10:50pm
Quoting Woohiye
{quote} Actually predicting events that have not happened yet IS ABOUT PROBABILITIES. It is impossible to be 100% correct, 100% of the time about the prediction of future events. So yes, I can express that you do not know how to always accurately predict the future. Want to prove me wrong? It's simple. Put up a trade explorer and over the next 6 months never have a losing trade. Then I'll admit I'm wrong. If you have even just one single losing trade (and lets face it, you'll have more than that) then you are in fact trading using probabilities...
you prove me wrong! Prove that you don't have to trade with the flows to win. LOL
I mean it baffles me that you don't get that simple statement. It's accurate. It's absolutely correct! It's undeniable. Yet you guys are trying to deny it.
You'll spend all your time looking at past order flows on a chart and picking out possible areas
of support and resistance but spend no time whatsoever trying to read flows in real time? LOL Think guys. Think!

Trade your probabilities. Good luck with that. I mean you can make money doing it but not if you get the direction of the order flow wrong.
Probabilities is based on guessing the direction of order flows a certain percentage of the time but you have to have your wins bigger than your loses.
If your loses are bigger than your wins YOU LOSE. So if your trade management sucks because you don't understand order flow YOU LOSE!

BUT TAKE CARE AND GOOD LUCK.
  • #1,039
  • Mar 20, 2018 10:58pm Mar 20, 2018 10:58pm
Quoting ztop
{quote} and yet every trader in existence is trying to trade with the trend right? If you can see a trend doesn't it make sense you can see order flow? lol You need to try to figure out how see order flow because if you can't you are going to make a lot of losing trades. Good job of trying to confuse yourself.
1. Not every trader in existence is trying to trade the trend

2. You seem to have gotten orderflow confused with price momentum. Whats your definition of orderflow?

3. Talk is easy. You could have told me to figure out how to make money.

4. IMO, its not the number of winning and losing trades. But how much you gain when youre right and how much you lose when youre wrong.

5. You talk rude dude. Nobody here is out to offend you.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #1,040
  • Mar 20, 2018 11:42pm Mar 20, 2018 11:42pm
Quoting synicz
{quote} 1. Not every trader in existence is trying to trade the trend 2. You seem to have gotten orderflow confused with price momentum. Whats your definition of orderflow? 3. Talk is easy. You could have told me to figure out how to make money. 4. IMO, its not the number of winning and losing trades. But how much you gain when youre right and how much you lose when youre wrong. 5. You talk rude dude. Nobody here is out to offend you.
"1. Not every trader in existence is trying to trade the trend" --well ever trader has to buy low and sell high or sell high and buy back low unless you're trading some odd variation. So you need price to trend in the right direction to profit.
2. You seem to have gotten orderflow confused with price momentum. --no I'm not confused. I know exactly what I'm saying. Price movement is based on buy and sell orders. Nothing else. Bullish trend is simply bull orders are stronger than bear orders for a sustained time period. Bear trend is just the opposite. You have bull and bear orders in a bull trend yet the bull orders exceed the bear orders. If your bull and bear orders are weak they move at a slower pace than strong bull or bear orders.

3. Talk is easy. You could have told me to figure out how to make money. & 5. You talk rude dude. Nobody here is out to offend you.[/quote] Look! If you have a problem with my presentation. That's your problem. I'm a straight forward guy and don't sugar coat things because I'm afraid you're going to get your feelings hurt. It's not my intention to hurt anyone's feelings. So if by chance you interpret my posts as rude. That's your problem not mine. I'm offering straight talk. I'm not beating around the bush. I'm assuming you're a big boy or girl and want someone to be straight forward and honest. Maybe you're sensitive? Who knows. I'm don't feel obligated to offer you this information. I'm doing it so you can shave down your learning time. The fact you're trying to make me feel as if I'm being rude and that I haven't offered you anything of value is your problem not mine. I'm giving straight forward and honest feedback. If you don't like it or appreciate it, that's your problem. I know the information is valuable and wish someone would have knocked me upside the head and told me bluntly-- figure out order flow.

4. IMO, its not the number of winning and losing trades. But how much you gain when youre right and how much you lose when youre wrong.---Correct. You're winning trades have to exceed your losing trades. If not you lose. Or your total winnings have to exceed your total loses.
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