Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 28%, SS – 15% /
Not only do we have a bearish cot change signal in the market, but we have the extreme risen to pretty large levels again. The cot report is definitely backing the notion that we are in a bubble

Euro
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
We have never seen Large Speculators being so bullish about Euro in the past, so we can assume that it is likely we will see an end to rally in Euro soon…

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is pretty clear here as well… (ohh I just love these all-time cot extreme signals…) We should start positioning ourselves for a more bearish market to come

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 53%, SS – 10% /
One word: Crazy…

Euro
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
As the market moved further up, the extreme has become even greater… The question is not IF it is going to burst, but WHEN?

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Not much changed from last week. Prices could not gain too much, but the extreme became larger.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Natural Gas
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 30%, SS – 12% /
Due to the bearish cot change signal we could see a bit of a decline in the market, but the fact that the last cot extreme signal was bullish and effective, we should be prepared for further rallies in Natural Gas.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All Time bearish cot extreme, but (!) caution is advised as stated in the cot review -> these extremes can stay for a few weeks or even months before the market trend starts to shift.

British Pound
COT Extreme / LS – 174 report COT extreme /
Not an all time extreme, but significant enough to be careful. The cot report is signaling an end to the rally in GBP.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi all, as I use Locked-in Range Analysis I want to quote Tom Leksey about COT Reports

Quote

Disliked

What is Market-Making?

So according to the latest definition it is useless to try to determine the positions of the participants since they are mixed

Hi, Dunstan thank you for starting and maintaining this thread,

I have just started using the COT report and I get my analysis from this website (https://freecotdata.com/currencies-2/); I use it mainly for following spectators during a trend and then looking for reversals once spectators get to the extreme levels.

What I like about this chart is that it puts the orders into an index which makes it easier to quantify the orders relative to previous orders it also takes in open interest (number of players in the market) in to consideration so that the size of the market at that particular moment of time is taken in to account which I find removes any subjectivity when it comes to interpreting the COT report.

I suffer from 'paralysis by analysis' which meant that I needed to understand how the COT data works, so for the past week I was number crunching the raw data into Excel to understand the fundamentals behind the data which has helped form my trading plan which goes as:

1. I only look at the non-commercials in the market because they more than most mirror the commercials
2. I consider a value between 40-60% to mean that the currency in question is ranging
3. If the index is at extreme levels >90% or <10% then I will be waiting for a reversal to occur
4. And between 60-90% and 10-40% I follow the trend of the spectators


I hope to engage in open discussion in how we can all benefit from the COT report, happy trading!

Hi everyone,

Sorry for being out for so long, have been struggling with a virus... getting better
I just wanted to let you know that I have been monitoring this new service that COTbase has built, it is called Futures Trading Guides. Check out the results, really impressive! I have been testing it in my own trading and to tell you the truth, I am pretty satisfied with what I see!

All the best,
Dunstan

Dunstan,

Thanks for keeping us posted with the latest development...

Get well soon...

Thanks, I'm fine now!

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 57%, LS – 42%, SS – 34% /
Huge bullish cot change signal, but we should not be surprised, since there has been a very large drop in prices. The signal suggests higher prices early this week.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week’s decline may have confirmed the top we have been waiting for since we have had this all time cot extreme in the market.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C – 65, LS – 64 report COT extreme /
Not much here… I’d say that the last major bullish cot extreme is still in place: I’m expecting higher prices to come.

You may want to check out the following cool video about FuturesTradingGuides.com, the service I have mentioned not long ago. They have enhanced their results page and you can now see the system’s performance on a longer time horizon! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Krmfw_9_JbM

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybeans
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 21%, SS – 12% /
The cot change signal is clearly bearish (maybe influencing the market early this week), but the extreme is not that obvious. Large Speculators were at these levels roughly a year ago, but other than that, the bullish cot extreme from 5 weeks ago is still acting. So my assumption is this: we may see a bit of a decline, but it should not be long lived and thus we could easily see the continuation of the rally.

Soybean Meal
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Unquestionable bearish cot extreme --> be prepared for lower prices to come.

Dow Jones-30
COT Extreme / C, LS – 91 report COT extreme /
Interesting to get to a bullish extreme so fast (under a month), but looking at the price action, our surprise should be washed away

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Futures Trading

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybeans
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 19%, SS – 5% /
COT Extreme / C - 53, LS – 52 report COT extreme /
The rally continued, the extreme became larger, but it is questionable whether or not it is large enough to make any changes to the rally. The cot change signal suggest a pullback in this rally.

Soybean Meal
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme became even greater… Eyes on this market

Silver
COT Extreme / C - 133, LS – 778 report COT extreme /
Huge bullish cot extreme in Silver suggesting higher prices to come!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Futures Trading

Good data and analysis. Please keep it coming

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS – 42% /
Not only do we have a very large change in Traders positions, with this move we have gone much closer towards a significant bearish cot extreme.

Silver
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All Time bullish cot extreme in Silver. Do I need to say more??

Sugar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Here we need to be a bit more careful… As you may see on the chart, we have had significant bullish extreme in the market for a loooong time, but the downtrend did not stop. This signal from the report simply underlines the importance of keeping in mind that there is a never before seen stress level in Sugar that will eventually pop and we will see higher prices. This could start tomorrow, but it may also take many months before something happens.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Futures Trading

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS – 56% /
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Both of our main COT signals are giving us bearish signs in the market. Huge changes in Commercials and in Large Specs positions combined with an All Time cot extreme signal in LS (despite the decline in the market we have witnessed the last 2 monhts).

Silver
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Not much change since last week… LS further increased their net short position.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Similarly to Silver, the stress level in the market has increased, the bullish cot extreme became even more significant, yet prices further declined. This underlines my caution advice I made last week.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Futures Trading

Based on my COT analysis, this is the bias I will be taking for currencies

 

1. BUY
   1. EURCAD
   2. EURCHF
   3. EURUSD
   4. GBPCAD
   5. GBPCHF
   6. GBPUSD
   7. NZDCAD
   8. NZDCHF
   9. NZDUSD

   
   

2. SELL
   1. CADJPY
   2. CHFJPY
   3. USDJPY

   
   

What does the ** signify?

It was a note to myself that those pairs had a good entry point, sorry for the confusion, I have taken it off now

Thank you for sharing your views!

All the best,
Dunstan

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Gold
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 19% /
Bullish cot change signal possibly pushing prices higher the next few days, but no extreme.

Silver
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Further increase in the cot extreme here. Great example that all time extremes could be with us for pretty long time before the market reacts. FuturesTradingGuides is indicating a -51.79 FTG score on a short time frame and a -56.99 FTG score for medium term so actually even though we have this huge bullish extreme, I’m waiting…

British Pound
COT Extreme / C - 193, LS – 194 report COT extreme /
Huge Bearish cot extreme in GBP suggesting an end to this rally we have been witnessing since the beginning of 2017.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts
Futures Trading

Hello Dunstan

Thank you for providing the COT report every week!!!!!!!! How can i use this data to improve my trading and will it make a big improvement to my trades?? Please share a link if you can, where i can learn how to trade with the COT report.....

Cheers