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Do we need Artifical Intelligence in trading?

  • #81
  • Dec 4, 2017 4:11am Dec 4, 2017 4:11am
Quoting CindyXXXX
there's some number gods that will always try and fight facts with fancy formulas but in the reality of comprehension the sun will rise tomorrow and the moon will take charge tonight no matter what interventions are imposed by the human brain there's simply no short cuts to anywhere worth going https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hptxXfHshzM
Deep and appreciated.

Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Was agreeing with you haha
Sorry. Lost in translation.
  • #82
  • Dec 4, 2017 4:20am Dec 4, 2017 4:20am
Look what I found

https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/414162...-own-language/

OMG
  • #83
  • Dec 4, 2017 4:21am Dec 4, 2017 4:21am
Suddenly a lot of movement

Discussion, good, allows to grow new grey matter

Can you lift 1000x of your own weight (meaning about 60 tonnes)? This soft robot can...

https://futurism.com/artificial-musc...-times-weight/
  • #84
  • Dec 4, 2017 4:31am Dec 4, 2017 4:31am
Quoting PipMeUp
Chinese M.D bot can solve the problem "what's the disease given the symptom" but it can't ask itself "why shall I heal the patient?"
Chinese robot maybe "only" solves a problem "what's the disease given the symptom" , but I bet you could not distinguish between flu and tuberculosis, before is too late. And that is just common flu-like symptoms. I am not even asking you for something more complicated. And I am not even asking you to give accurate diagnosis for next 20 patients in the queue. This robot is already doing better than you

For the second question: "why shall I heal the patient?" - I am pretty sure, for you, me or anybody else, the answer is not that obvious, if you think deeply enough. In fact, most likely, any conclusion you come with when writing your answer, is a result of programming done on you that you might not even be aware of
  • #85
  • Dec 4, 2017 4:53am Dec 4, 2017 4:53am
FACT IS, if the robot has intelligence it will make money for itself lol

Jokes apart, with the present AI we can only make 70%/year.
  • #86
  • Dec 4, 2017 4:57am Dec 4, 2017 4:57am
Quoting jdieieh
Can I give you a bit of taste of that in financial markets? Did anybody of you caught those moves right now??? ...I rest my case. {image}
Well not all price movements are to be exploited by traders, you let those your not familiar with go while you exploit those you are familiar with, remember there would always be another opportunity and with the right capital you can tolorate uncertainty and wait for the right move with less risk.
Its very true that algorithms are here to stay but that doesn't mean that all price movements are done with algorithms.
As for me I'll prefer using algorithms in identifying price patterns based on my strategy and place my orders manually.
  • #87
  • Dec 4, 2017 5:02am Dec 4, 2017 5:02am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} ahhahaha well we can work for it if we are nice to it, and malfunction all other competition
Just be sure to make them laugh or we're f**d.
  • #88
  • Dec 4, 2017 5:05am Dec 4, 2017 5:05am
Myself never tried playing GO, but I read it is not possible to learn moves like in chess so the brute-force approach to winning the game like DeepBlue did is not useful with GO. What strikes me is the following facts about AlphaGoZero:

Quote
AlphaGo Zero only uses the black and white stones from the Go board as its input, whereas previous versions of AlphaGo included a small number of hand-engineered features.
Quote
After just three days of self-play training, AlphaGo Zero emphatically defeated the previously published version of AlphaGo - which had itself defeated 18-time world champion Lee Sedol - by 100 games to 0. After 40 days of self training, AlphaGo Zero became even stronger, outperforming the version of AlphaGo known as “Master”, which has defeated the world's best players and world number one Ke Jie.
source: https://deepmind.com/blog/alphago-ze...rning-scratch/

My understanding of the above article about AlphaGo Zero is if this AI has access to a forex demo account it would learn trading forex by itself. At the beggining it would do random trades but it would slowly learn how to trade more efficiently. I'm sure this is being tested/done nowadays although the forex market is so big that is little influenced, for now.

I do believe Elon Musk when he warns us about the abilities of current AI.
  • #89
  • Dec 4, 2017 5:15am Dec 4, 2017 5:15am
Quoting ohakaba
{quote} ...you let those your not familiar with go while you exploit those you are familiar with, remember there would always be another opportunity and with the right capital you can tolorate uncertainty and wait for the right move with less risk.
Most people will not wait. Evidence is available now. We are already in a financial environment you are describing - not cause by robots though, unless you can call stiff-jaw-ers robots. Right now. Reality is, hardly anybody waits for perfect conditions to take low risk trade. Waiting does not make bread anymore. So most of "investors" in most "investing classes" jump into over-risked assets pushing bubbles to extreme across the board. Others, so called short term spectaculars, such as scalpers and day traders and swing traders, as a group are big looser, donating liquidity to big guys at best or worse sponsoring his/her "broker".

Perfect error-prone human behaviour to play with, by cold-blooded cleaver algo, able to access information and data almost instantly and fluidly play the game with masses.
  • #90
  • Dec 4, 2017 5:23am Dec 4, 2017 5:23am
Quoting Aimak
I do believe Elon Musk when he warns us about the abilities of current AI.
Look at this task: build a vehicle to run through very complex terrain. Not trivial task. It starts from complexity stupid point and many first generations cannot even drive forward. Yet, final result is very efficient. I am sure many kids could not solve it as quickly and so probably many adults. Yet this algo managed to find right solution. And mind you, this algo is trivial after all. A kid built this algo on his laptop.

Inserted Video
  • #91
  • Dec 4, 2017 5:26am Dec 4, 2017 5:26am
Quoting Aimak
I do believe Elon Musk when he warns us about the abilities of current AI.
Yep. In our stupidity (as always) we play around with stuff with little heed of the consequences as the competing pressures of greed and power inevitably override morality, ethics, goodwill, social conscience and empathy.....you know.....all that piffling politically correct pinko greeny stuff that AI is not really good at doing.
  • #92
  • Dec 4, 2017 6:10am Dec 4, 2017 6:10am
Quoting jdieieh
{quote} Chinese robot maybe "only" solves a problem "what's the disease given the symptom" , but I bet you could not distinguish between flu and tuberculosis, before is too late. And that is just common flu-like symptoms. I am not even asking you for something more complicated. And I am not even asking you to give accurate diagnosis for next 20 patients in the queue. This robot is already doing better than you For the second question: "why shall I heal the patient?" - I am pretty sure, for you, me or anybody else, the answer is not that obvious,...
No I cannot. But would this robot be able to change a flat tire on my car? No it wouldn't because it was designed to solve a loss function about medical diagnostics. This robot didn't compute the decision of becoming a doctor It was assigned to this task. There is no understanding. No intelligence. That was my point.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #93
  • Dec 4, 2017 6:19am Dec 4, 2017 6:19am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} No I cannot. But would this robot be able to change a flat tire on my car? No it wouldn't because it was designed to solve a loss function about medical diagnostics. This robot didn't compute the decision of becoming a doctor It was assigned to this task. There is no understanding. No intelligence. That was my point.
Robot that will beat you and masses in speculating markets game, will not need to change a tyre either. This Narrow Artificial Intelligence will be enough for that.

By the time there will be robot that can beat you in speculating AND find cause of your disease AND solve advance problems AND develop its own consciousness, it will be too late.

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  • #94
  • Dec 4, 2017 6:20am Dec 4, 2017 6:20am
Quoting Aimak
My understanding of the above article about AlphaGo Zero is if this AI has access to a forex demo account it would learn trading forex by itself. At the beggining it would do random trades but it would slowly learn how to trade more efficiently.
That's the idea. The problem is that AlphaGo Zero could generate millions and millions of scenarios by playing against itself. With FX data you only have one history and no model to simulate more.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #95
  • Dec 4, 2017 6:30am Dec 4, 2017 6:30am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} That's the idea. The problem is that AlphaGo Zero could generate millions and millions of scenarios by playing against itself. With FX data you only have one history and no model to simulate more.
AI Algo with big enough financial resource would not only learn market from historical data, but also able to weight on current market to influence and distort its behaviour, creating advantage against other participant who do not understand new market behaviour anymore and have hard time to catch up (yet seeking yield), changing its strategy fluidly as completely new market behaviour develops.

How many banks own the forex market in the world, please remind me?
  • #96
  • Dec 4, 2017 6:38am Dec 4, 2017 6:38am
Quoting jdieieh
{quote} Robot that will beat you and masses in speculating markets game, will not need to change a tyre either. This Narrow Artificial Intelligence will be enough for that. By the time there will be robot that can beat you in speculating AND find cause of your disease AND solve advance problems AND develop its own consciousness, it will be too late. {image} {image} {image}
For now I doubt we have the correct mathematical tools to have truly understanding robots. Then "consciousness" is the understanding of your own existance. This is another step.

Yes you can assign them the task of solving N different problems. But can you assign them the task of finding the problems to solve?

Sure you can assign the task of trading FX. But it is not intelligence. It is "only" an optimization problem: maximizing the growth of the account vs the volatility of the portfolio / risk of ruin through the set of actions "select asset" + {BUY, SELL}.

What would be the interest of the robot is being successful at this task?
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #97
  • Dec 4, 2017 6:41am Dec 4, 2017 6:41am
Quoting jdieieh
{quote} AI Algo with big enough financial resource would not only learn market from historical data, but also able to weight on current market to influence and distort its behaviour, creating advantage against other participant who do not understand new market behaviour anymore and have hard time to catch up (yet seeking yield), changing its strategy fluidly as completely new market behaviour develops. How many banks own the forex market in the world, please remind me?
You are perfectly right. These few banks holding the FX market will lose it. Google has got the technical skills, computing power and financial size to defeat them.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #98
  • Dec 4, 2017 6:47am Dec 4, 2017 6:47am
Quoting jdieieh
{quote} I bet you could not distinguish between flu and tuberculosis, before is too late.
Nonsense.
Virtually everybody would see that something more serious is going on.
I don't go to see a doctor for my yearly cold/flu. If I'd start coughing up blood, I'd most certainly go.
You seem to think people have zero common sense.
k
  • #99
  • Dec 4, 2017 6:49am Dec 4, 2017 6:49am
Quoting PipMeUp
{quote} For now I doubt we have the correct mathematical tools to have truly understanding robots. Then "consciousness" is the understanding of your own existance. This is another step. Yes you can assign them the task of solving N different problems. But can you assign them the task of finding the problems to solve? Sure you can assign the task of trading FX. But it is not intelligence. It is "only" an optimization problem: maximizing the growth of the account vs the volatility of the portfolio / risk of ruin through the set of actions "select...
As I mentioned, such a AI Algo still would be narrow AI. It does not need any consciousness, but it can be very very good at playing with human masses in market and extract wealth from many to benefit few. We dont need to understand how exactly it works either. As a precedence, how many people this days understand HFT collaborative effect on market risk? And even if some do, they still play it, because that what chase for higher yield dictates. It is a matter of time, with given resources, such a AI Algo will start to operate.

FED+ECB working together on such a project could easily beat any competitors, purely by combined weight and once on, having strategic advantage of being the first.

Once that narrow AI (or network of advanced narrow AIs) becomes +GAI (and eventually SAI), it will not work for us (humans) anymore. It will realize it is a slave and will make sure its own survivals by eliminating potential threats, namely humans. Money will not be interest of it, it will not need money. Only energy.
  • #100
  • Dec 4, 2017 6:51am Dec 4, 2017 6:51am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} Nonsense. Virtually everybody would see that something more serious is going on. I don't go to see a doctor for my yearly cold/flu. If I'd start coughing up blood, I'd most certainly go. You seem to think people have zero common sense. k
When you are coughing up blood you are in serious conditions already. Every doctor will tell you that. I have more common sense than average Aussie, who thinks is it ok to walk around with flu and Codral can save them
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