Hi all,

I've been following Crucialpoint's posts with great interest. A lot of wisdom and useful information can be found within his writings here (not only about trading).

Now I'm trying to find information about the mathematical statement he made in one of his posts.

First, Craig posted this:

And then CP replied:

I asked a few mathematicians how to calculate these probabilities, and their replies were like "Random walk is “memoryless”. No matter how far the walker gets from the starting point, the probability stays the same."

Here is my recent conversation with one of them:

Does anybody know how to calculate properly the probability that Craig and CP mentioned?

P.S.

I've been following Crucialpoint's posts with great interest. A lot of wisdom and useful information can be found within his writings here (not only about trading).

Now I'm trying to find information about the mathematical statement he made in one of his posts.

First, Craig posted this:

And then CP replied:

I asked a few mathematicians how to calculate these probabilities, and their replies were like "Random walk is “memoryless”. No matter how far the walker gets from the starting point, the probability stays the same."

Here is my recent conversation with one of them:

Does anybody know how to calculate properly the probability that Craig and CP mentioned?

P.S.

**For CrucialPoint**: If you ever read it, I want to thank you for all your posts and contribution here. Wish you all the best, and may good luck be with you in all your researches and other endeavours.Let's go with the flow