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How do you time your exits?

  • #41
  • Jan 16, 2020 4:40am Jan 16, 2020 4:40am
Quoting dkrock
{quote}I practice continuous process improvement, so over the years I have learned many things about indicators, charts, and trading systems. In my business plan, I could care less what the next candle will do as I trade sample sizes, not candlesticks. In fact, my trading method is so advanced, I do not need to see any candles to place my trades.
And lo, let it be known that I kneel and bow at the alter of dkrock for infinite wisdom imparted doth therein.
  • #42
  • Jan 16, 2020 4:45am Jan 16, 2020 4:45am
Quoting LloydOz
{quote} And lo, let it be known that I kneel and bow at the alter of dkrock for infinite wisdom imparted doth therein.
Oh, I try to keep up with his wisdom, he keeps editing that wisdom, hard to follow
I guess we'll soon turn this thread in ...a place where we have fun

edit: no offence, Rock !
Member
  • #43
  • Jan 16, 2020 5:28am Jan 16, 2020 5:28am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Oh, I try to keep up with his wisdom, he keeps editing that wisdom, hard to follow I guess we'll soon turn this thread in ...a place where we have fun edit: no offence, Rock !
As I said, it's going to be fun
Member
  • #44
  • Jan 16, 2020 5:35am Jan 16, 2020 5:35am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Sorry, but I don't understand your post. First you say why trade something 50-50, then you said it doesn't change, which would mean it is 50-50. What do you mean? Each new trade consists of new traders with new names, new lot sizes, and new reasons for entering. Nothing the same about it. That is why it is ridiculous to trade the last trade all over again by drawing lines connecting highs and lows, LOL. It is a NEW trade. You have no idea where the high or low will be. BUT, you can trade the direction, which is a whole different approach....
1st paragraph - Isn't it sensible that if the odds of winning is 50-50 or worse it make no sense to engage in this business? Isn't it also true whether it's 50-50 or better or worse differ from trader to trader, it's an individual thing ?

2nd paragraph - Many members on this forum wrote that the market changes with time or at least that's what they believe. I think the market is the same since the time when there was a trading market, nothings changed. Todays market is the same as yesterday and the same shall be for tomorrow. High percentage losers and a few winners that will never change. Plenty losers whose percentage is worse that 50-50 and few winners whose percentage is better than 50-50. Explains for the brokers stats and the posts on this thread.
Know what you trade
  • #45
  • Jan 16, 2020 5:53am Jan 16, 2020 5:53am
You need a trading plan that implements a precise exit strategy to close out trades. One of the best exit strategies for me is the Stop-Loss trailing since you can never be sure of how long a trend will last. For this strategy, there are at least a couple of ways to play it. You either go with no targets at all, or you take profit on half the position. Depends on everyones strategies and what they're comfortable with.
  • #46
  • Jan 16, 2020 5:55am Jan 16, 2020 5:55am
Hi, folks ! I got a new one. A riddle this time.
Just take a look on this chart situation.
How's your analysis look like? Come on ! What's gonna be next ? Head or tail ?!?

Come on, gimmie your best shot ! Can you justify it ? ...it would be real fun !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gamblers_fallacy.png Size: 180 KB
Member
  • #47
  • Jan 16, 2020 7:29am Jan 16, 2020 7:29am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Hi, Nikl, I'm very interested on how you can increase the win rate from 33% to 45%. I'll write a book explaing what happens just if you can do that, ...it would worth my effort, honestly Note, the momentum continuation is not something you can rely on. Because it obeys to the same 50-50 universal rule. Meaning it may continue or it may not ...by the same probability. Simple put, the trend (or counter-trend) is only about 50% your friend... the rest, is not your friend So I'm all eyes and ears to any solid verifiable idea which...
Hi TudorIoan
I'm not sure why I haven’t attempted this previously but I spent a couple of hours this afternoon backtesting a few basic entry criteria (MA crosses, Time based entries etc) with RR of 1:2 and bugger me, they all had a win rate of 33%! (give or take a few %)
  • #48
  • Jan 16, 2020 7:58am Jan 16, 2020 7:58am
Quoting TudorIoan
Hi, folks ! I got a new one. A riddle this time. Just take a look on this chart situation. How's your analysis look like? Come on ! What's gonna be next ? Head or tail ?!? Come on, gimmie your best shot ! Can you justify it ? ...it would be real fun ! {image}
Dear gott -No one knows where price will go next. Forget your special equations, moving averages, Elliot etc. Price is where it is at in the here and NOW. Anything else is lagging.
The upshot is you have to guess, even a best guess using your favourite ma etc. THEN you have to manage the trade - that means you. Money/trade management is key. The rest or simply means to best guess.
So - in your picture post you guess direction using a coin or the latest signals/system and then you then manage the trade.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #49
  • Jan 16, 2020 8:10am Jan 16, 2020 8:10am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Dear gott -No one knows where price will go next. Forget your special equations, moving averages, Elliot etc. Price is where it is at in the here and NOW. Anything else is lagging. The upshot is you have to guess, even a best guess using your favourite ma etc. THEN you have to manage the trade - that means you. Money/trade management is key. The rest or simply means to best guess. So - in your picture post you guess direction using a coin or the latest signals/system and then you then manage the trade.
Where you at, buddy? My demonstration proves that no one really knows where price will go next.
The trade managing illusion is the problem People use to believe they can stand a chance by a wise position management ...which is proved wrong, sorry to disappoint many
Member
  • #50
  • Jan 16, 2020 8:42am Jan 16, 2020 8:42am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Where you at, buddy? My demonstration proves that no one really knows where price will go next. The trade managing illusion is the problem People use to believe they can stand a chance by a wise position management ...which is proved wrong, sorry to disappoint many
Tudor -Sorry -the comment of mine was not aimed at you per se but to those that pontificate about "systems" and 'grails"- I should have made it clearer.
I agree with your post whole heartedly and apologise for any confusion caused by my poorly written post
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #51
  • Jan 16, 2020 8:51am Jan 16, 2020 8:51am
Quoting TudorIoan
The trade managing illusion is the problem People use to believe they can stand a chance by a wise position management ...which is proved wrong, sorry to disappoint many
You are wrong people still believe in wise position management that turns around 50-50 or worse odds, still do to a large extent of this illusory magic that's the only hope.
Know what you trade
  • #52
  • Jan 16, 2020 8:57am Jan 16, 2020 8:57am
Quoting BWilliam
{quote} You are wrong people still believe in wise position management that turns around 50-50 or worse odds, still do to a large extent of this illusory magic that's the only hope.
True. And I don't say they don't believe
Member
  • #53
  • Edited 5:20pm Sep 5, 2020 5:07pm | Edited 5:20pm
1. Enter
2. Stop Loss
3. Let it ride for either SL or Opposite signal entry.

Exits can not be taken arbitrarily - it is a losing proposition. We never know how far in profits our trade can take us.

Opposite signal entry is the only sensible solution to this conundrum "Should I GTF out or stay in?"

If you entries statistically good - you will be the winner in the long game called "Trading" So it is back to entries and your technique.

This is a 2nd most important topic after the "Entry". I am surprise it is receiving so little attention.
  • #54
  • Sep 6, 2020 1:12am Sep 6, 2020 1:12am
i use a pointer arra just in case i have to quit.
so my entry and exit are strictly regulated.
  • #55
  • Last Post: Sep 6, 2020 1:45am Sep 6, 2020 1:45am
My mantra is "only learn from the best".
So I have bee reading and watching about everything you can find
from people like Jim Simons, George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller
and quite a few others.
Guess what... I have not even once heard the word "indicator" as we
use it here.

They indeed all let runners run. It is mathematically I think
not difficult to see that a TS at e.g. 90% of max always brings
home the most profit because you leave your position size at 100%
and let "your runners run".
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