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  • #6,401
  • Jan 3, 2019 4:54am Jan 3, 2019 4:54am
FX markets taking some hit from AAPL news today, hedges going of, especially on USDTRY.
Main priority play today most likely AAPL on equities on short side unless something else good comes along on small cap world.

Most likely gona play AAPL trough options today, buying puts on any major pullback or major weakness, holding for larger targets. Missed the news early today but still some juice in it most likely.
  • #6,402
  • Jan 3, 2019 7:57am Jan 3, 2019 7:57am
CADCHF on watch for possible pullback leg play if bakes HH.
  • #6,403
  • Jan 3, 2019 8:26am Jan 3, 2019 8:26am
Quoting janpec1000
CADCHF on watch for possible pullback leg play if bakes HH.
Another A grade play collected, 2R .
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  • #6,404
  • Jan 3, 2019 10:59am Jan 3, 2019 10:59am
GBPNZD potential B quality supply takeout play. On watch.
  • #6,405
  • Jan 3, 2019 11:01am Jan 3, 2019 11:01am
Quoting janpec1000
FX markets taking some hit from AAPL news today, hedges going of, especially on USDTRY. Main priority play today most likely AAPL on equities on short side unless something else good comes along on small cap world. Most likely gona play AAPL trough options today, buying puts on any major pullback or major weakness, holding for larger targets. Missed the news early today but still some juice in it most likely.
Still holding 142.X puts, but likely to expire worthless, thats a punishment for a weak followup on the trade, was not paying any attention to AAPL chart, totally all into 3 other plays, and missed 142 test to cover the puts. Markets always find the way to punish one for lack of discipline.
  • #6,406
  • Jan 3, 2019 11:47am Jan 3, 2019 11:47am
Quoting janpec1000
GBPNZD potential B quality supply takeout play. On watch.
GBPNZD no play, it didnt break the supply. Was unlikely.
  • #6,407
  • Jan 3, 2019 11:47am Jan 3, 2019 11:47am
AUDCAD M5 could potentially set up. On watch for potential long.
  • #6,408
  • Jan 3, 2019 12:38pm Jan 3, 2019 12:38pm
Quoting janpec1000
AUDCAD M5 could potentially set up. On watch for potential long.
AUDCAD also no play, this is what i kept on watch with alert set but never took of the supply.
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  • #6,409
  • Jan 4, 2019 6:28am Jan 4, 2019 6:28am
PDF files for supply takeout. Condensed rules that have to be followed, but before that plays have to be studied from examples on thread before those rules make sense and how they are applied.
Attached File(s)
File Type: rar Supply takeout.rar   56 KB | 349 downloads
  • #6,410
  • Jan 4, 2019 7:50am Jan 4, 2019 7:50am
Quoting janpec1000
PDF files for supply takeout. Condensed rules that have to be followed, but before that plays have to be studied from examples on thread before those rules make sense and how they are applied. {file}
Thanks for posting this. It's really helpful!

Just a quick question on entries - you say:

"Entry on supply takeout:
Wait for all highs to be taken out clearly, and second entry is bounce."

However, I've only really noticed you entering on the bounce / retest. Do you often enter on the initial take-out? If so, are there any particular circumstances that would make you more confident to take such an entry without waiting for the bounce? Thanks!
  • #6,411
  • Jan 4, 2019 7:56am Jan 4, 2019 7:56am
Quoting Mindsphere
{quote} Thanks for posting this. It's really helpful! Just a quick question on entries - you say: "Entry on supply takeout: Wait for all highs to be taken out clearly, and second entry is bounce." However, I've only really noticed you entering on the bounce / retest. Do you often enter on the initial take-out? If so, are there any particular circumstances that would make you more confident to take such an entry without waiting for the bounce? Thanks!
Sure if you go trough whole thread you will notice at least half entries are on direct supply takeout.
Two most important factors that dictate whether you should go in direct entry are quality of symmetry and the strenght of momentum move into and above supply.
That means if supply is very symmetrical with all highs aligned at same price (+- 1 pip) (no overshooting highs) and if leg that moves into supply takeout is very strong that is always a straight to go in direct entry. However if supply is more asymmetric and there is no particular momentum move then its often better to enter half size or just wait for full takeout and then go with bounce enty.
  • #6,412
  • Jan 5, 2019 1:42pm Jan 5, 2019 1:42pm
USDCNH in shadow mode for now but likely not for long. New proxy conflict is likely to emerge between China and Taiwan, and there is only one way the USDCNH can go from that point. I have strong conviction that once this conflict erupts it will likely be one of biggest trades of 2019, huge one directional move in USDCHN from global and Asian capital outflows including the additional sanctions hitting the offshore yuan.
  • #6,413
  • Jan 5, 2019 8:59pm Jan 5, 2019 8:59pm
Quoting janpec1000
USDCNH in shadow mode for now but likely not for long. New proxy conflict is likely to emerge between China and Taiwan, and there is only one way the USDCNH can go from that point. I have strong conviction that once this conflict erupts it will likely be one of biggest trades of 2019, huge one directional move in USDCHN from global and Asian capital outflows including the additional sanctions hitting the offshore yuan.
Interesting perspective. There's no doubt that there's a game of brinksmanship on show at the moment between China & the US.. the Chinese are currently in a pretty big bind with regards to the trade war. It's hurting their growth prospects significantly, so anything could happen.

Do you have a view on GBPUSD? I have this sense that a no deal Brexit is unlikely, and they will likely end up going for a second referendum to prevent the worst ouotcome (no deal). If that happens, Brexit will likely be canned and the pound should skyrocket. I have yet to load up on longs, however, as the timeframes are pretty unclear and there may well be some downside before that happens.
  • #6,414
  • Jan 6, 2019 3:51am Jan 6, 2019 3:51am
Quoting Mindsphere
{quote} Interesting perspective. There's no doubt that there's a game of brinksmanship on show at the moment between China & the US.. the Chinese are currently in a pretty big bind with regards to the trade war. It's hurting their growth prospects significantly, so anything could happen. Do you have a view on GBPUSD? I have this sense that a no deal Brexit is unlikely, and they will likely end up going for a second referendum to prevent the worst ouotcome (no deal). If that happens, Brexit will likely be canned and the pound should skyrocket. I...
On a surface i agree on GBPUSD, but there are too many complex factors behind to really put any position on (at least in spot FX), i dont hold solid enough opinion on it to be placing anything for now. My view since first day of Brexit vote was that there will be no Brexit because Brussels and Germany are too tough players and geopolitics is not a game of come and take, when it comes to weaker player negotiating with stronger. But since that is exactly what happened the question is where to go after that. Next referendum will be held, if no brexit wins then very likely your scenario will be on with surge in GBPX, but if modified Brexit is voted on then direction of currency is very difficult to know, due to the fact that markets would still chew on that as instability (very bearish), due to decreased de-globalization stance from first proposed deal it would have bullish impact (trade, capital inflows), and overall there are additionally many underlaying factors that are very mixed, so the outcome for that its hard to know. In either case if you place positions on GBP mind that you are still trading the elections which means that there is still big un-certain factor behind what the direction will be depending on vote which you dont know, you are not trading upon already settled stance. However the only thing you can conclude is that bullish move on next referendum is much more likely than it was on first referendum, due to well all the factors combined. But personally i dont like gomble trades, unless they can provide massive R gains and only 1 R limited loss, so playing next referendum trough options on GBPX or UK100 actually doesnt sound like a bad idea, but you would need to buy probably 3 week or monthly expirations (3 week ahead of vote) and pick the cheapest ones with strike price as far as possible, if you really get no Brexit vote then you can easily end up with 20 R trade (call GBPX, call UK100). If not you lose 1 R on each.

But defenetely i dont think its worth playing this trough spot FX, there isnt enough R especially because its likely to be whipsaw move in both directions at least for some few hundred pips. Ill updated on thread if i place anything when time comes.
  • #6,415
  • Jan 7, 2019 4:09am Jan 7, 2019 4:09am
Thanks for your input on GBPUSD.

I took a demo trade just then on USDCAD (lost), interested to hear your feedback on this.

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My thoughts:
- I played this as a continuation trade, but in doing so it made me wonder what the key differences are between a bottom rotation and continuation trade. When is a breakout actually a stop clearout?
- I entered on the break as it seemed like there was good momentum. Took an extra entry on the retest.
- I note that price preceding the most recent uptrend was a strong downtrend. Comparing to earlier examples in this thread, my understanding is that A grade continuation plays come with a long established trend. This really only had one leg up before the consolidation zone.

Thanks!
  • #6,416
  • Jan 7, 2019 4:44am Jan 7, 2019 4:44am
Quoting Mindsphere
Thanks for your input on GBPUSD. I took a demo trade just then on USDCAD (lost), interested to hear your feedback on this. {image} My thoughts: - I played this as a continuation trade, but in doing so it made me wonder what the key differences are between a bottom rotation and continuation trade. When is a breakout actually a stop clearout? - I entered on the break as it seemed like there was good momentum. Took an extra entry on the retest. - I note that price preceding the most recent uptrend was a strong downtrend. Comparing to earlier examples...
Hey, the entry was too late. Entry has to be on first HH bake, right on the point when it took last high on that strong momentum move, your entry was way too late. Basically where you entered first long is where the exit should be on profit taking. Also mind that bounce entries should be mainly considered for supply takeouts only, on pullback leg only consider them on very dense structures with many highs of development in them.

Overall the play was good quality as you noted, just the entries were not appropriate.
There are some correlated variables in supply takeout and pullback leg plays, but usually pullback leg continuation plays are where longs are accumulating and then the push comes from the imbalance of buy orders , while in supply takeout its absorption attempt of heavy 1 sided shark that is absrobing the supply, while with pullback leg its more general market action that is driving the price instead of single / few players.
However for both plays the best setups highest grade come when single shark is driving the action which can be proven from tape / liquidity books, those plays have best followtrough.

To prove stop clearout you need liquidity book or tape its not possible to read that from chart, it helps a lot to identify A grade play. I have added PDF file for A grade pullback leg, the setup is explained for low float stocks, but similar rule applies to FX ones.
Example of ALQA of A grade pullback leg where single manipulator was driving trash stock and forming pullback leg play, and the shorts had big SL positioning of 80k shares right above last (third) high and the manipulator saw those and hit big size and absorb those which created then strong squeeze upward on break. Same kind of plays are in FX but futures are needed to identify that (volume and tape), altough once you know what you are looking at using spot FX is enough. So to get back to your point stop clearout is often present in both plays, if asset is in strong demand then likely those stops will be targeted and can give you good indication ahead that breakout could be strong and lasting. In FX best to do is to focus on those plays durring very liquid and strong overall volume market action, thats where its most likely to see those, usually after any important news data.
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Attached File(s)
File Type: rar Pullback_leg_low_float_PDF.rar   40 KB | 361 downloads
  • #6,417
  • Jan 7, 2019 4:52am Jan 7, 2019 4:52am
EURCHF possible B quality play.
  • #6,418
  • Jan 7, 2019 4:57am Jan 7, 2019 4:57am
Quoting janpec1000
EURCHF possible B quality play.
Longed
  • #6,419
  • Jan 7, 2019 5:04am Jan 7, 2019 5:04am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Longed
EURCHF took 1 R.
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  • #6,420
  • Jan 7, 2019 5:04am Jan 7, 2019 5:04am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Hey, the entry was too late...

Thanks for the notes and the file. I guess the issue with this trade / chart is that that whole structure is only 4 pips from top to bottom. That break really only had about 3 pips in it, if we assume entry is the top of the structure plus 1 pip. With that in mind, once you factor in commission and spread, it's really quite tight. Are we better of looking for a structure with more depth and thus a greater potential payoff?
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